Critérium du Dauphiné 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Critérium du Dauphiné 2013

There is now less than a month to the start of this year’s Tour de France and that means it’s the last time to test your legs against your rivals’ in competition. Most of the big Tour favorites will be in Critérium du Dauphiné this year and with a very hilly course, we should be in for a good show the next eight days.

Compared to last year’s edition, this one is much more about climbing than time trialing. It’s true there is a 32.5 km long time trial on stage four but the race won’t be won or lost here, that will happen in the final four days in the Alps with three uphill finishes.

Looking at the field, two riders stand out as the main favorites; Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. Froome has been outstanding in all the stage races he has ridden since February, while Contador only has been focusing on the Tour and therefore haven’t performed as well as the previous years. Contador normally never peaks in Dauphine but with a different season plan, we should to see him stronger at this point than usually. Last year Bradley Wiggins won Dauphiné before winning the Tour overall and I think Chris Froome will be eager to repeat his teammate’s performance this time. Froome can count on excellent support from Richie Porte - another GC contender - Vasil Kiryienka, David Lopez and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

I see Chris Froome and Alberto Contador a level above the rest in this race but its clear they are both not in tip-top condition yet and it wouldn’t be the first time an outsider won Dauphiné. There are a lot of good riders in the race this year to give you a better overview, I have the divided the favorites in to the following categories:

Strong winner candidates: Chris Froome & Alberto Contador

Strong podium contenders: Samuel Sanchez, Richie Porte & Andrew Talansky

Top5 contenders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde, Damiano Cunego & Jurgen van den Broeck.

Outside of these three categories we’ll find riders like; Sylvain Chavanel, Jakob Fuglsang, Wout Poels, Laurens Ten Dam, Pierre Rolland, Michal Kwiatkowski etc. etc.

Personally, I expect a lot from Samuel Sanchez. For the first time in many years, he failed to deliver in a Grand Tour when he only ended 12^th overall in the Giro d’Italia. He came close to a stage win on the hilly time trial but he wasn’t as strong as expected in the last week. The last couple of years we’ve seen riders with failed Giro expectations rise and win in Dauphiné and I think Samu will do just that. In 2011, Purito used his good shape from the Giro to win two stages and last year his teammate Dani Moreno did the same. I see many good stages for Samuel Sanchez in this year’s Dauphiné and I would be surprised not to see him win at least one of them.

Remember, there are no bonus seconds on the line in Critérium du Dauphiné this year so the climbers really need to distance their rivals when ever they can if they lose too much time in the time trial.

Many of you have been asking about stage previews for Dauphiné and I’m happy to announce that there will be daily previews during the race. Just like earlier this year, I’ve teamed up with INRNG to deliver daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. INRGN will be writing for Dauphiné and I will be doing the Tour de Suisse previews. First one should be online Saturday evening.

For live race coverage, check out steephill.tv

Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites

The cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.

The race organizers have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.

Another important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before. The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.

The way I see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should Sagan miss out.

Other strong candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro Valverde and Damiano Cunego. Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3^rd place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.

Last year’s winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.

Team Blanco have two very good cards to play in Bauke Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter, but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not 100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.

Like always, I have a joker too; Angel Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3^rd place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg, but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take a podium spot on a good day.

Other interesting names are Marco Marcato and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.

Quickstep haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Podium picks: Phillipe Gilbert & Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Angel Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter Velits

For live race coverage check out steephill.tv

Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR

— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Preview of Giro di Lombardia

After a long and very interesting season it’s now time for the last big race in 2012; Giro di Lombardia. It’s “the race of the falling leaves” but despite it being the end of the season we still have a lot of great riders ready to fight for the last big win and important WorldTour points. Last year Oliver Zaugg took his first professional win ever when he soloed to victory in Lecco, but something tells me that we will see one of the favorites taking the win this time.

Muro di Sormano.
Click for larger view!

Favorites:

There is no way around it. The way he won the World Champions last Sunday, Philippe Gilbert is the big favorite for a wonderful double to end off the season. Gilbert has already won the race twice in the past (2009 and 2010) and the way he has been building up his shape towards the World Champions, I’m sure he wil be ready to take his third Lombardia win. It’s true that the added “Muro di Sormano” probably will make a selection a lot earlier than normally, but with a strong team around him and about 100 km to go from the top, Gilbert shouldn’t have any problems staying in front. 

BMC sports director Rik Verbrugghe told Sporza that 2012 had been an “off-year” for Gilbert and you know you’re talking about a real champion when two Vuelta stages and a World Champion title still is being looked at as an off-year. Gilbert will be eager to end this season with another win and the way I see only a few riders can do anything against that.

One of them is Damiano Cunego. Starting the Vuelta España six weeks ago Cunego’s aim was - like Gilbert -to ride the Vuelta in order to be in the best shape possible for the World Champions. Unfortunately for Cunego, halfway through the race the Italian federation implied their new “clean policy” leaving Cunego out of the roster for Limburg. Cunego kept on trying to hit the right breakaway though - being one of the most aggressive riders in the beginning of the stages - but without any luck. Now it’s time for revenge. Missing out on the World Champions on a route that suited him perfectly, Cunego really wants to show what he can do in Giro di Lombardia, a race he has won three times already. Last year he came to Lombardia just a few days after Tour of Beijing and without jetlag this time I will very surprised if he and in-form and team mate Diego Ulissi won’t have their saying in the final on Saturday afternoon.

Villa Vergano - 7,4% avg.
9,5 km to go from the top.

Another strong candidate for the win is Alberto Contador. I must admit I didn’t put Contador down as one of the favorites before his win in Milano-Torino, but now it would be stupid not to. Despite the scale showing 2,4 kg more than in the end of the Vuelta España, Alberto Contador still managed to drop everyone when he attack on the last kilometer and soloed to his first one-day-race victory ever. Last year Oliver Zaugg managed to go solo on the last climb (Villa Vergano) and keep his lead all the way to the line. Contador knows he doesn’t stand a chance in a sprint against riders like Gilbert, Cunego and Purito, but if he can put in another attack like the one in Milano-Torino on Villa Vergano he will be very difficult to catch.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is also a good pick for the win and together with team mates Dani Moreno and Alexander Kolobnev, Katusha have one of the strongest teams in the race. Last year Purito attacked too late on Villa Vergano and had to settle with third place. This year he finally won his first Classic in Fleche Wallone and being so close to the overall win in both the Giro and the Vuelta I’m sure he will do anything in this power to end this year with a win and a good taste in his mouth. Another thing to boost Purito’s morale is that a top place in Lombardia most likely will give him another overall World Tour win as Bradley Wiggins seems to be out of shape right now.

Jokers:

As always this late in the season it’s all about who has most left in the tank and that means we often see outsiders shine. I find many good jokers on the start list but as said, I think it will be one of the favorites taking the win. Still, I would like point out guys like Lars Petter Nordhaug and Carlos Betancur. Both riders are changing team next year (Nordhaug to Rabobank and Betancur to Ag2r) but that fact hasn’t benched them for this classic. Nordhaug showed at the World Champions that he’s in great shape when he was with Edvald Boasson Hagen on Cauberg in the final. Nordhaug was just about to bridge the gap to the chasing trio, a move that probably could have given EBH the rainbow jersey, but missed out in the end. With his win in GP Montréal earlier this month there is no doubt though that Lars Petter Nordhaug is in great shape right now and being a disappointed in Team Sky for not fighting to keep him on the team I could imagine he is eager to show them they made the wrong call when they let him go to Rabobank.

Carlos Betancur showed great he is ready for Lombardia when he took 5^th place in Milano-Torino, arriving with Purito after a strong finish, and despite having Danilo Di Luca on the team, I think Betancur is Acqua e Sapone’s best chance of a good result this Saturday. Betancur won the hard stage to Frabosa Soprana in Giro di Padania a couple of weeks ago and taking 9^th place in Lombardia last year, he sure knows what it takes to be there in the final. 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 16

Many said the three mountain stages in Asturia would make the difference but after two it’s still a close race between Alberto Contador and race leader Purito. Now it’s time for the hardest of the three-in-a-row when the peloton climbs up all the way to Cuitunigru.

Cuitunigru before the new asphalt.

Normally Puerto de Pajares would be the finishing climb, but to spice up this Vuelta even more Unipublic decided to add another three extremely steep kilometers to Cuitunigru. As you can see on the picture the road - or what should we call it? - wasn’t really ready for pro cycling so make sure there wouldn’t be any problems new asphalt was put on earlier this year. Better road conditions or not, this is an insanely hard finish and on paper it looks perfect for Purito with a part of 25% just before the line.

Still I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it again. Imagine if Team Saxo Bank had worked hard to pull back the break on stage 14. Then Purito would probably have won the stage and taken even more bonus seconds. It seems like the this race will be won with very few seconds and as it is now, Contador can’t afford to let Purito take seconds for free anymore.

Everybody knows a break has a good chance of making it and therefore everybody want to be in it as well. The first categorized climb, Alto de Cabruñana, starts after 41,2 km and this is probably where the final break will be established. 

Last 2,8 super steep km of the stage
Click for larger view!

Damiano Cunego has been trying very hard to get in the break the last two days but without any luck and he knows he needs to dig deep at least once to realize his shape before the World Champions. I think Cunego will do everything he can do make it this time and even though my jokers from the previous days (Quintana, Jeannesson & Tiralongo) also have a very good chance I put my faith in the Italian Prince. Meaning that with my luck in the duel against Felix, Tiralongo probably wins the stage…

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Damiano Cunego

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Cayetano Sarmiento

Explanation:Well, well, well. I picked the wrong Caja Rural guy yesterday: even though David de la Fuente was in the break, it was his team-mate Antonio Piedra who took the win. To make things even worse, de la Fuente was pipped for third and so didn't even pick me up the one consolation bonus point that could make the difference in my duel with Mikkel come Madrid. How to drag myself up from that? Well, be bold and pick two riders Mikkel won't pick - that's how. First up, my favourite for the win is Alberto Contador, who will surely make it third time lucky after yet another attacking display. Bert is so close to distancing Rodriguez. He has to keep motivated and press on. J-Rod will certainly like the 22% ramps of the last climb of Cuitu Nigru, but he won't like the length: at 19km long and coming after two Cat.1 climbs, this will be arguably the hardest finale in this year's Vuelta. The queen stage should be won by whoever wants to be crowned king of the race. Does Contador have what it takes? As for my joker, I was at first hesitating between Damiano Cunego of Lampre and Gustavo Cesar of Andalucia. Lampre have been shamefully quiet these past two weeks and the Little Prince is surely keeping something special back for the big occasion? As for Cesar, the climber has also been rather lacklustre - and after Caja Rural's win, the pressure will be on Andalucia to deliver the goods. But in the end I went for Cayetano Sarmiento in a bold display of recklessness. Liquigas are also having a pretty shoddy race, and Sarmiento is one of the lesser-known of the swelling Colombian contingent in the pack. But he showed his climbing ability in the Dauphine and this could be his chance to sign on with the big time. If there's any justice in the world, Saddles will be rewarded for his troubles and deservedly distance Mikkel.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 8

Okay. Let’s get it over with. Third time was not the charm for Swifty - it was third strike instead. I think I’ll jump on the Degenkolb wagon from now on and with that out of the way, let’s have a look at stage 8 to Andorra.

While the finish to Estación de Valdezcaray on stage 4 wasn’t really steep I can assure you that it will be to Andorra. The category1 climb Collada de la Gallina is 7,2 km with an average gradient of 8%. it’s a nasty climb with more than just few parts of 15% and compared to stage 4 you can’t hide in a big group this time. Not if you want to be in the front!

The peloton enters Andorra after 134,9 km (40 km to go from there) and that means there won’t be an easy part of road from there on and to the finish line. With 20 km to go Alto de la Comella starts. It’s a category2 climb and despite its average gradient of “just” 5,2% the last kilometer doesn’t drop below 11%. The descent from Alto de la Comella is very tricky and technical and once again you need to be in the front already in order to start Collada de la Gallina in a winning position.

Collada de la Gallina. 7,2 km - 8% avg.

My favorite for the stage is Purito. I thought he might would have let go of the Red jersey on stage 7, but there is no way he is giving away just before entering his home town the following. Purito lives very near this climb and knows it better than the most and I haven’t seen anything so far that would make me doubt his strength. I think (and hope!) that Alberto Contador will go hard and keep on attacking in order to get away, but it will be very difficult for him to drop Purito. 

On Arrate Contador showed that he can drop Froome with his accelerations and this time I think Purito will help him out if they get away together. Rumor has it that Contador and Purito have never really been the best of friends but on Collada de la Gallina they could take a huge step towards the overall podium if they manage to work together.

As I said I doubt Purito will let the jersey go, so you better be way out of the overall classification before you even think about going into a breakaway. That being said I think it’s time to see guys like David Moncoutie, David de la Fuente, Amets Txurruka and Damiano Cunego make an appearance in this race. Moncoutie crashed hard in the Tour and said just before the Vuelta that he still had problems standing up attacking the climbs. He might need a few days before he’s a good pick. Still if he is ready now, he is a solid candidate for a breakaway win. 

My personal joker for the stage is Damiano Cunego. The “Little Italian Prince” didn’t come to this Vuelta to chase a good overall place but instead to get in shape for the World Champions on a course that has never been better for him. Cunego has lost time every time the road went uphill in this Vuelta and again today he lost time in the hectic finish with the crash and the cross wind. Afterwards Cunego said that he just took it easy since he is only in the race to go for a stage win. I think he will fancy a chance tomorrow but I’m sure Felix wouldn’t agree to downgrade Cunego to a “joker”, so instead my joker pick will be Jan Bakelants.

Bakelants has shown great condition the last month and being almost seven minutes down in the overall classification Katusha shouldn’t worry too much about him taking the jersey. Bakelants has been in the mix in the other uphill finishes so far and he has shown, just before the Vuelta, that he is not afraid of attacking. If he can hit the right break he could be very dangerous on Collada de la Gallina.

You can see a video clip from Spanish TV about the final climb guided by Purito's team mate Xavier Florencio by clicking here!

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Jan Bakelants

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Joker: Gustavo Cesar Veloso

Explanation: We're yet to hit the big mountains but Contador will be keen to put down a marker in Andorra after his slight uphill stutter at Jaca in stage six. The Spaniard's attacking performance in stage three is a better indicator of his form than one small climb in which he was suffering from cramps and dehydration. Contador won't make the same mistake twice and he'll want to get in on the act after wins for both Valverde and Rodriguez. There is, of course, always the possibility of a break staying out - and you can bet casa on Andalucia being involved. Gustavo Cesar Veloso is a half-decent climber and is worth an outside punt - especially if his fellow escapees are also sufficiently low on GC. 

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 7

Gianni Savio explains: 

On this stage we will get the first photo of the Giro. We will not see who will win the Giro but we will see who won’t be able to win it. If you get dropped on the last climb you won’t win Giro d’Italia this year. It’s not so hard but it’s the first time the riders will go uphill for so many kilometers and all the favorites will be eager to stay in front. I hope Rujano will be a protagonist on this stage, but as I said it’s not super hard which he prefers. 

The favorites for the stage win must therefore be riders like Michele Scarponi and Damiano Cunego.

Favorites for Amstel Gold Race

Purito's stage win in Vuelta Pais Vasco
on a steep final like Cauberg with 15%.

Every single one of you reading this site should know who my favorite is for Amstel Gold Race this Sunday. A lot of things can happen but I think it will end up with a reduced group fighting for the win on Cauberg and that means a certain Spanish rider must be the mega favorite.

Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez
Give this guy a steep part over 15% and he gets wings. Purito has been an expect of these “rampas” his whole career and the last couple of years he has had few if any real equals at all. Last year Purito had some injury problems leading up to the Ardennes Classics but he still managed to rip the front group apart on the steep part of Cauberg with only Gilbert able to follow him. Given state of shape Gilbert was in last year, of course he won the race against Purito who still wasn’t 100%. This year Gilbert doesn’t seem to be near the same condition and while Purito recently showed off his excellent shape in Vuelta Pais Vasco I can’t see anyone beating the little Spaniard if it’s all together when they start on Cauberg.

Samu winning in Arrate
for the 3rd time in a row.

Samuel Sanchez
Yet another Spanish rider. If Purito showed he was ready in Vuelta Pais Vasco, Samuel Sanchez showed he was super ready. Euskaltel Euskadi finally got their win on home territory and if Samu can manage to refocus on the Ardennes after that performance he should have very good chances of a podium spot.

I doubt he will try to attack before the final and since I can’t see him follow Purito, I don’t think he will win, but he is definitely a strong contender for the podium. Team mate Mikel Landa recently said that Samuel Sanchez had one of the three Ardennes Classics red-circled and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the one.

Cunego winning Amstel
on Cauberg back in 2008.

Damiano Cunego
First one of my favorites who has actually won the race earlier. Damiano Cunego won on Cauberg back in 2008 when he outsprinted Fränk Schleck and Alejandro Valverde. Ever since Cunego has been among the best riders in the race taking 5th in 2009, 6th in 2010 and 15th last year. This year Cunego has ambitions on the World Champion course in Limburg and since that one is very similar to the Amstel Gold Race course, Cunego wants to show he should be the Italian captain in September. In Vuelta Pais Vasco he ended off very strong with an impressive 5th place on the final time trial and without Michele Scarponi to share the leader role with, I think Damiano Cunego has good chances of taking yet another top spot on Cauberg. 

Jokers
No favorites without any jokers. Even though Katusha and other teams should be strong enough to keep it together for a final show down on Cauberg, the chance of a successful attack is always there. One of the riders who has the strength to do it is Vincenzo Nibali. His showed in Tirreno-Adriatico and Milano-San Remo that his tactical sense is improving and if he can keep his head cool this time he should be able to put in a strong attack in the final.

Nordhaug wins Trofeo Deia
after going solo in the final.

Another rider who has shown to be very strong these days is Lars-Petter Nordhaug from Team Sky. Nordhaug ended 4th overall in Criterium International and 6th in the GC in Vuelta Pais Vasco and according to the Norwegian he was even holding back to be ready for the Ardennes Classics. Team Sky also have Sergio Luis Henao on the team and since the Columbian is more explosive in the final I think Lars-Petter Nordhaug will have to attack from a far if he wants a chance to surprise the favorites.

Among other riders for the expected “sprint” on Cauberg it would be foolish not to mention Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans but to be honest I have more faith in the three pointed out above. For break aways look out for Giovanni Visconti and home favorite Robert Gesink.

Volta Catalunya 2012

With just a few hours to the start of this year's Volta Catalunya here is a quick preview of the race.

Without a time trial in and with a lot of uphill sections Alejandro Valverde is of course the number one favorite. He has a great team around him with Moreno, Pardilla, Arroyo, Quintana etc. and it will take a real climber like Daniel Martin or Robert Gesink to beat him in the overall classification. Samuel Sanches is another rider with a good chance in the GC, same goes for Janez Brajkovic. Astana actually expect the Slovenian to fight for the overall win here.

I don't have much time to dig in any deeper about the favorites, so I figured I would give you my pre-top10 for the GC instead. Here you go:

1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Samu
4. Martin
5. Brajkovic
6. Andy
7. Cunego
8. Van den Broeck
9. Uran
10. Navarro

As always I would like to mention a few jokers for the GC. First up is the French youngster Thibout Pinot who climbs very well and aims high on this race. Pinot has a lot of strong riders around him and if he is ready he should be able to fight for a top10 spot, maybe even more. Second joker is Nairo Quintana. He won Vuelta a Murcia thanks to his performances in the mountains and even though he will have to help his team mate Alejandro Valverde, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting a good result for himself as well.

Team Saxo Bank - Ghost Team

Team boss Bjarne Riis.

Ever since Alberto Contador's case started a large amount of great riders have been signing contracts with Team Saxo Bank as his replacement or as luxury gregario in the mountains. At least in the press. Fact is that Team Saxo Bank hasn't signed a single one of all these riders.

Some riders they didn't have the funds to sign while other riders never were more than just a rumor. I thought it could be interesting to take a look at some of the riders who turned out to be nothing but ghosts.

Tony Martin (signed with Omega Pharma-Quickstep)
Bjarne Riis was very interested in signing Tony Martin when Team Highroad closed, but even though Saxo Bank had a an extra bag of money ready, the German rider decided to go elsewhere.

Thor Hushovd (signed with BMC)
It was very obvious during last year's Tour de France that Bjarne Riis would have loved to secure Thor Hushovd as Saxo Bank rider in 2012, but when Thor Hushovd saw the amount of zeros BMC could put on his paycheck he chose to join Phillipe Gilbert.

Denis Menchov (signed with Katusha)
Like last time Denis Menchov needed a new team, the press was fast to link the Russian rider with Bjarne Riis. According to the rumors Menchov had already had several conversations with Riis about a contract, but with an annual payment of €1.8 Euros, Riis didn't have the money (nor the desire?) to sign Menchov on for 2012.

Juanjo Cobo (signed with Movistar)
After winning the Vuelta España Juanjo Cobo signed a €800.000 contract with GEOX just to see the shoe company withdraw their sponsorship a few days later. Rumors had it that Cobo would head to Team Saxo Bank instead, but I think everyone 'involved' in that knew that would never happen.

Stefano Garzelli (re-signed with Acqua e Sapone)
Recently Stefano Garzelli was linked to Team Saxo Bank after his Italian team Acqua e Sapone didn't get invited to the Giro d'Italia where Garzelli had planned to end his career. After La Gazzetta bought the story, Garzelli himself said that it in fact was last summer he was negotiating with Team Saxo Bank, but ended up staying at Acqua e Sapone anyway. For what reason I don't know, but I guess he owed the team that much and of course thought they would be invited to the Giro.

Vladimir Karpets (signed with Movistar)
After a disappointing time with his fellow countrymen at Katusha, Vladimir Karpets felt the time was ready for a change. According to a recent interview with French site Velochrono, Karpets was very tempted to sign a contract with Bjarne Riis and Team Saxo Bank but decided to go to Movistar and his old boss Eusebio Unzué. "If I hadn't sign the contract with Movistar I would been going to Saxo Bank", he says. Karpets would have been a great help for Contador, plus a good rider for the one week stage races. Shame Bjarne Riis couldn't convince him.

Damiano Cunego (re-signed with Lampre)
Before the beginning of the 2011 season Damiano Cunego had a chance to change team for the first time in his career but decided to stay loyal to Lampre. The former Giro d'Italia rider had an offer from Bjarne Riis on the table but like all the riders above the ink never touched the paper - at least not the paper saying Team Saxo Bank at the top.

Other riders linked to Bjarne Riis and Team Saxo Bank are Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Christopher Horner & Jakob Fulgsang (likely to sign next year) just to name a few. It's true that if Alberto Contador is a superior this year as he was in the Giro d'Italia last year, he doesn't need that one last man in the mountains, but it sure wouldn't have made his chances of success any smaller if just one of the mentioned riders was there to help him.

A few outsiders to win Lombardia

Let’s face it; there is one name and one name only when you talk about favorites for the hilly classics these years. Philippe Gilbert. Thing is that every rider in the peloton already knows that and it wouldn’t surprise me if we got an outsider on top of the podium in Lombardia to close a spectacular season.

Let’s take a look at a few outsiders who could ruin ‘the perfect’ season for Gilbert.

Rigoberto Uran, Team Sky.
Rigoberto Uran was very close to his big breakthrough in the Tour when he seemed sure to win the White Jersey before going under on the stage to Alpe d’huez. After that he regained his energy with a strong performance in San Sebastian before taking third place in GP de Quebec and latest another third place in Giro dell’Emilia. After Emilia he saved his energy for Lombardia where he will be the sole captain for a very strong Team Sky with Thomas Löfkvist showing great shape.

Uran is strong on the small steep climbs and very fast in a sprint, so don’t be surprised if he takes another top3 spot on Saturday - if not the win…

Pablo Lastras, Movistar.
It’s been a long and very successful season for Pablo Lastras and even though he had a long journey from the heavy smog in Beijing he should still be able to put down a good fight in Lombardia. It’s one of Lastras’ favorite races and last year he took third place after Gilbert & Scarponi showing great motivation for a good result despite the victory being out of reach for him. To help Lastras in the best possible way, Movistar sends strong riders like Rui Costa (who could be an outsider himself), Beñat Intxausti, Angel Madrazo, Ruben Plaza etc.

As said Pablo Lastras has had an amazing season so far and I think - and hope - that he can end it with style in Lombardia.

Daniel Moreno, Katusha.
I know. This is maybe too easy after he won in Piemonte last Thursday, but Dani Moreno is in fact a pretty good pick for an outsider to win Lombardia this year. Like Lastras, Moreno is finally back at this former level, probably even a lot better than ever before, and with Purito and Paolini the Katusha team really have a strong trio. Purito will probably be the leader, but like in Piemonte, Moreno can take advantage of this and try his own luck.

Most of you know that Dani Moreno is one of my favorite riders in the peloton, but no matter what, you all have to agree that if you can win in Piemonte two days before, you can definitely do great things in Lombardia as well!

Prezemyslav Niemiec, Lampre.
Damiano Cunego is without any doubts the leader at Lampre for Lombardia, having practically owned it earlier, but look out for this Polish guy as well. Niemiec is well known for his climber skills and after spending the whole season working his ass for his leaders, especially Michele Scarponi, this could be his big chance for a result for himself. Ending 5th in Emilia and 6th in Piemonte, Niemiec is certainly on the top of his game right now and if the long journey from Beijing shows to be too much for Cunego, he could end up surprising a lot of people with a strong ride in Lombardia!

If you are a gambler and you want to find the best winner bets for Lombardia, I suggest you read my article "Follow the money" at this site.

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 19

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Thomas Löfkvist : Alberto Contador

Mauro Gianetti : Fränk Schleck

David Etxebarria : Damiano Cunego

Laura Meseguer : Fränk Schleck

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Bookmaker's favorite : Fränk Schleck

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 17

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Thomas Löfkvist : Simon Gerrans

Mauro Gianetti : Damiano Cunego

David Etxebarria : Jelle Vanendert

Laura Meseguer : Carlos Barredo

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Bookmaker's favorite : Philippe Gilbert

Interview - Claudio Chiappucci

To spice it up and get a fresh view on this year's Tour de France, here comes an interview the former Italian super climber Claudio Chiappucci who won the polka-dot jersey in both 1991 and 1992 and finish on the final podium in Paris in '91, '92 & '93.

Claudio, we are now half way through the Tour. Who has surprised you the most. Both positively and negatively?

Gilbert is sparking, he’s been like that since the beginning of the season! Very positive, Cunego as well. The others are more or less as we expected them to be. The two Schleck brothers are equally strong but Contador hasn’t lost the Tour yet.

Do you think he [Contador] is still capable of winning the Tour being 3-4 mins down already?

I think he can recover, but he has to find a way to attack his rivals. The problem is that there aren't that many occasions left to do so. I think Voeckler can keep the yellow jersey for one more week, he has a very good team.

Cadel Evans has turned out to be strongest of the favorites in the first half of the race. Do you think he can keep up like that?

Well, I think he has improved a lot. He is strong and he has been at the front of the peloton all the time. He is good on the climbs and in the time trials and I think he deserves to be on the podium based on his performances so far. 

Basso won the Giro last year, Nibali the Vuelta and now both Cunego and Basso are up there with the best in the mountains. How high do you see the chances for an Italian rider on the final podium in Paris?

I think Basso could end up on the podium, but he won’t win the Tour. Both  Evans and Contador have a strong time trial where they can take time on Basso, and then we have the Schleck brothers who can attack him from left and right in the mountains. It won’t be easy.

On Luz Ardiden the biggest surprise – except for Contador losing time – was probably Damiano Cunego staying with favorites. What do you think he can this year?

Cunego is not a top rider for the three week stage races anymore. On Luz Ardiden he did well but it will be hard for him to get close to the podium. Especially because of the time trial. He should target a stage win instead.

Leopard-Trek showed amazing team-strength on Thurday’s stage to Luz Ardiden, but in the end only Fränk Schleck gained a few seconds on the other favorites. What do you think about their tactic? 

They made a great effort and got the group down to only the best ones, but I think they need to pick a team leader. They need to sacrifice one for the other, Fränk never said he was the ‘gregario’.

What about ‘your’ jersey, the polka-dot, who do you think will take it this year?

Samuel Sanchez can win it, I would go for him. Among the others I don’t see a true climber. No one is attacking anymore. You have to attack in order to win this jersey. Maybe the riders nowadays have different targets and don’t want to risk everything on the jersey. It’s a shame…

Last one. It seems like the Italian people (sponsors and tifosi) are waiting for a new fall of champions to fall in love with. Like with you guys in the Giro and the Tour. You arrived after a crisis in Italian cycling and managed to give a great Renaissance. How do you see the future of the Italian cycling right now?

It was different time. When I was a rider I was attacking because I wanted to see what the others were capable of doing, I wanted to give them a chance to defend themselves. Indurain was very strong and attacking him wasn’t easy, but I felt that I had to try every time. You don’t see that nowadays. It’s not easy for the Italians either. The globalization brings new sponsors into the ProTour and Italy doesn’t play that big a role anymore. We only have two ProTour teams and I think it’s going to be difficult for Italy to get new big teams with Italian sponsors. It will be interesting to see what a guy like Daniel Oss and future youngsters can bring to the table. I just hope they won’t crack under the big pressure and expectations. 

Interview by Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Interview - Damiano Cunego

Damiano Cunego showed in Tour de Suisse that he can stay with - and beat - the best riders in the moutains. Now it's time to show that in the Tour, and with the interesting finish on Mur de Bretagne on stage4, don't be surprised if you see Il Piccolo Principe right up there fighting for the stage win!

Damiano, sorry about the narrow defeat in Tour de Suisse. You were close to a stage win twice during the race and end up with second overall. What positive things did you take with you from Switzerland?
Of course I would have preferred to win Tour de Suisse and losing the success for only 4” is even tougher. But I always like to look at the positive side of every thing, so I focused my attention on the fact that I showed to be very competitive in the climbs, that I can aim to win vwery tough stages and that I can manage intense situation during races. These are all signals that support my morale.

Except for yourself who did you see as the strongest in Tour de Suisse?
I think that some of them, for instance Andy Schleck, didn't want to perform Tour de Suisse on a competitive level, they only wanted to perform trainings. Others, such Leipheimer and Mollema, were already on a high level of condition, they were pedaling in a very good way, so I think they'll be able to obtain satisfactions in the Tour de France.

I made an interview with you last year right before the Tour. Back then you said you targeted ‘a beautiful stage win thanks to a great break-away’ but not the GC. How about this year? Will you aim at the overall classification this time?
No, I'm happy to start this Tour de France with no pressure on me about the overall standing. I only want to fix targets day by day, stage by stages. I would like to win my stage, this is my first target, then my goal will be to win another one and so on. If, step by step, I'll be able to achieve important results, I'll be happy. Of course, if my condition will be very good, as consequence I'll be in a good position of the overall standing, but this is not a primary target.

A lot of people say that the first week of the Tour is perfect for Philippe Gilbert, but isn’t it also perfect for Damiano Cunego? Many Ardennes-like finishes.
Yes, that's correct. The first stage was like an Amstel Gold Race final and in fact Gilbert performed an impressive action. I liked the stage and I like also others in the first week, so I'll try to obtain a good results in one of them.

I read earlier this year, that you thought about targeting the Polka-dot mountain jersey this year. How about that?
I'd like to wear the polka-dot jersey, it's a charming symbol, but in order to do it it's necessary to focus the attention on the breakways: the rules of the points for the climbers classifications changes, but it's still very important to get points in the early stages, so the breakaways are still a good method to collect points. Considering this, if I want to win stages, it would be quite difficult to compete for the polka-dot jersey too.

Looking at the Lampre Tour-team is seems very well structured around Petacchi for the sprints with Malori & Kostuyk to work in front of peloton and then Bole and Hondo to deliver him in the final. Who on the team is assigned to help you?
In Lampre-ISD we're lucky, because we can rely on riders that can support in the best way different kind of riders. Hondo is a very good “last-man” for Petacchi but, in arrival suche the one of Mont des Alouettes [stage 1, edt.], he performed a marvellous job for me, leading me on the wheel of Gilbert in the last 2 km. Bole can do the same thing in this kind of arrivals. Kostyuk, Bono and Loosli are very skilful in supporting me in the approach of the climbs, then I'll have Bertagnolli by my side on the mountains, where it will be my turn to give my best, after the support that I'll have received by the team mates.

Alpe d’Huez is back on the menu this year. Do you have some unfinished business after Fränk Schleck beat you back in 2006?
Alpe d'Huez is a top charming stage for all that it means to the history of Tour de France and for what it means to me. I dream of winning there. 

And Pinerolo?
Of course, also Pinerolo arrival will be very important for the Italians and I think that I'd give a huge satisfaction to my team and to all the Italian fans if I could win there.

Last one. Saying Contador, despite his time lost on stage 1, and Andy Schleck will take 1st & 2nd in Paris, who's going to to join them on the podium?
Pay attention to Evans, Gesink and to Vinokourov.

Thanks Damiano, good luck!
Thank you, I hope I'll be able to give good cycling emotions to all the fans.