Giro d'Italia: Stage 17 Preview & Favorites

First of all, congratulation to Beñat Intxausti on an amazing stage win. It looked good for our picks with Rodriguez, Herrada & Capecchi in the break but Katusha and Radioshack started to get protect their GC riders. Anyway, let’s move on to the stage in hand.

The final of Stage 17 is very similar to the one on Stage 16 but this time the first 192 km are pancake flat. With 21.4 km to go the day’s only climb, Crosara starts. It’s only a category 4 climb but like with Andrate (cat3) on Stage 16, the category means nothing. Crosara is 5,3 km long and the first 4 km have an average gradient of 8,1% with parts of 12%. On paper, this may look like a stage for Mark Cavendish but there are only 16 km to go from the top of Crosara and if the GC riders decide to test each other again, the sprinters can kiss this stage goodbye.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a morning break makes it all the way and that means we have to look to opportunistic riders once again. Vacansoleil-DCM don’t have a sponsor for the next season after both Vacansoleil & DCM recently decided not to renew their contracts. The Dutch team are good at hitting the right breaks and especially Marco Marcato will be motivated to do well on this stage. This is Marcato’s first Giro d’Italia and with the stage finish near his hometown, he will do everything he can in order to give his fans something to cheer for. Marco Marcato knows the Crosara climb better than most of the riders in the race and I’m sure he will show himself in the final.

There are only 16 km to go from the top of Crosara.

Another rider who will eager to show himself is Marco Canola. You might remember Canola from Stage 5, when he ended up alone in front on the last kilometer after the big crash. Canola didn’t have the strength to keep John Degenkolb behind him but he showed on Stage 13 that he copes well with the final climbs and with his fast finish, he could be a good outsider for the stage win.

Vini Fantini seemed to be in a perfect position on Stage 16 but despite having Di Luca and Rabottini in front, they ended up as the big losers after Santambrogio had an off day. Santambrogio lost 2:24 min and without teammate Oscar Gatto it would have been a lot more. Gatto chased like a possessed and if he has the same kind of legs on this stage, he will be very difficult to beat.

Once again, you can’t really talk about favorites so I’ll do like yesterday and leave you with the following riders as my picks:

Marco Marcato

Oscar Gatto

Marco Canola

Fabio Felline

Fabio Duarte

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 17:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

We are only on stage three of this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it’s already time for the opportunistic riders to try their luck. The pure sprinters will have troubles staying up front on the 222 km from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea, especially on the last 80 km with a couple of climbs on the menu.

The first 140 km are relatively flat and a break should have no problems getting clear here. With 77 km to go the first climb, San Mauro Cilento, starts. Its 8 km with an average gradient of 6,5% will make it tough for the sprinters to stay in the peloton. Still, there are about 30 km from the top of San Mauro Cilento until the next climb starts. Sella di Catona stretches over 20 km but is separated by a short descent in the middle. The two uphill sections both have an average gradient of about 4% but the climb does kick up towards the top with parts of 7%. 

There are only 20 km to go from the top of Sella di Catona and if a small group gets away over the top, they won’t be easy to catch. Like the climb, the descent too is split in two, with a short ascent in the middle. The last 8 km are downhill towards the line and strong descenters like Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez may want to test Team Sky and try to gain a few seconds. Especially Samuel Sanchez must be eager to take back some time after Euskaltel got their TTT ruined by a punture with 1,5 km to go on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Sanchez attacks on the final 8 km towards the line. 

Also, the last kilometer is very tricky. Coming down from the climb, there is a viaduct leading directly into a roundabout and this will stretch out the peloton a lot. After that there is a 90° left turn with just 400 meters to go. It won't be easy to gain positions on the descent, so you need to be among the first riders over the last top if you want to win this stage.

I think many of the pure sprinters like Chicchi, Viviani & Cavendish will have troubles on final hilly 80 km of the stage. Teams like GreenEdge and FDJ should try to set a high pace to thin out the competition for Goss and Bouhanni. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it to the line. The stage profile reminds me of the stage Angel Vicioso won in 2011 when a small group got away over the top of the last climb before the downhill finish. Vicioso is in the race again this year and he seems to be in great shape right now. He’s definitely a rider to look out for in the final. The same goes for aggressive riders like Giovanni Visconti and Filippo Pozzato. Visconti took the KOM jersey on stage 1 and I’m sure he will be keen to hang on to it for a while. The former Italian champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he can’t be given too much of a gap towards the end. Also, Giovanni Visconti is only 9 seconds after Salvatore Puccio in the overall classification, so a stage win will put him in Maglia Rosa!

Another rider this stage finish is perfect for is Fabio Felline. The young Italian has a huge potential. He’s getting stronger every year and he won’t have any problems on these kind of climbs. Furthermore, Felline is very fast on the line. He’s not a sprinter, but he in a group of 40-50 riders, there aren’t many who can beat him. The way I see it, Fabio Felline should be named as one of the favorites for this stage. He can both attack in the end and win a sprint in a reduced group. On Stage 1 Felline punctured in the final and in team time trial he had to change bike. If he can avoid more bad luck, I think Felline will be close to Top3 no matter how this stage evolves.

Personally, I would like to see Marco Marcato and Oscar Gatto try something on this stage. Marcato came out of the Ardennes Classics in great shape and he’s now eager to get his first win of the season in his debut Giro d’Italia. Marco Marcato has his eyes on a different stage in this race - more on that when time - but with his fast finish and strength on the hills, this stage too seems very good for him.

Last year Oscar Gatto arrived to the Giro a bit tired after a strong season start, but this year he seems to have timed it differently. As mentioned earlier, I doubt Chicchi can make it over the climbs so Vini-Fantini have to put their faith in other riders. Luckily for them, they bring a whole team of riders for these kind of stages. Di Luca, Rabottini, Taborre, Garzelli and Gatto all have the abilities to win on a finish like this but I think Gatto is their best card to play. He’s aggressive, good on the hills and very fast on the line.

As you probably gather from this Preview, it’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this. It sure looks like a stage for a breakaway, but both Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss have the strength to make it over the climbs and therefore I guess one of those must the favorite. I pick the French champion.

Favorite: Nacer Bouhanni

Top3 pick: Fabio Felline

Jokers: Giovanni Visconti / Marco Marcato

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 3:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites

The cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.

The race organizers have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.

Another important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before. The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.

The way I see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should Sagan miss out.

Other strong candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro Valverde and Damiano Cunego. Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3^rd place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.

Last year’s winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.

Team Blanco have two very good cards to play in Bauke Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter, but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not 100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.

Like always, I have a joker too; Angel Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3^rd place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg, but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take a podium spot on a good day.

Other interesting names are Marco Marcato and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.

Quickstep haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Podium picks: Phillipe Gilbert & Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Angel Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter Velits

For live race coverage check out steephill.tv

Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR

— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Favorites for Milano - San Remo

It feels good to be back again, even though I’m just relaxing on the couch recovering without much to do. I have had some time to catch up on the last days though and I feel pretty confident stating the following riders as my favorites for Saturday’s Milano - San Remo.

As always there are two scenarios; mass sprint or break away on Poggio. Therefore I have divided my favorites into two categories. Here they are:

Break away:

Nibali attacking with
2 km to go in 2010.

One of the strongest riders uphill right now is Vincenzo Nibali. Ever since San Luis in Argetina, Nibali have been showing great condition and his overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico proved he is probably the best pick for break away win in San Remo. The last two years Nibali has tried to get away on the descent from Poggio but even though his skills on the downhill sections are amazing he has never been able to stay away. Personally I think that if Nibali tries to attack already on Poggio, stronger and more powerfull than he did last year, and get a gap before the descent he will be close to impossible to catch again. It will require head wind and a sprinter with at least 3 team mates in the peloton to rail him back as I see it.

Cancellara's solo win in 2008.

One of the only riders who would be able to follow Nibali on the descent is Fabian Cancellara. He has been in shape since Tour of Qatar and he only gets better and better now. In Strade Bianche he went solo without even attacking, he simply just set up the pace a bit. I doubt Cancellara will have any difficulties following the strongest on Poggio and even if so, he shouldn’t be too far off when they start the on descent. Cancellara knows what it takes to win Milano - San Remo and after his recent performances he must be named as one of the big favorites.

Mass sprint:

Cavendish' photo-finish win in 2009.

The number one favorite, should the peloton reach the finishing line together, is Mark Cavendish. No doubts about that. In January Cavendish said he felt as good as in 2009 when he won the race and looking at his team this year you’ll find Eisel, Löfkvist and Hagen to support Cavendish just like they did in 2009. Milano - San Remo is a huge goal for Mark Cavendish this year. According to his team mates all he talks about is winning this race in the rainbow colors and if he manage to stay in front on Poggio I’m pretty sure he will repeat his win from 2009 – without letting get as close as back then.

Freire made it look easy with his third
Milano-San Remo victory in 2010.

There is one sprinter you just can’t count out  no matter what. Oscar Freire! The former multiple World Champion has won Milano – San Remo not just once or twice, but three times already. He surprised a lot of people when he did it in 2010 and this year he seems to be even stronger. Freire has confirmed that the 2012-season will be the last in his glorious career and what better way of saying good bye that start out winning one of the biggest races of them all. Freire showed in Tour Down Under and Vuelta Andalucía that he still knows how to win mass sprints and he even came very close to beating Mark Cavendish in Tirreno-Adriatico. Freire is strong on the hills and he is experienced enough to know where to be when it counts. If Oscar Freire is in first group when the peloton gets to San Remo I would be very surprised not to see him in the top3 at least.

Jokers:
No fun without a couple of jokers, so here we go. First up is Marco Marcato. A lot of people may have forgotten this, but Marcato actually had a real chance of winning Milano - San Remo last year. Being the only other fast guy in the front group after Poggio, Marcato crashed on the descent and never managed to get back to the front. This year Marco Marcato seems to be stronger than ever before and after having worked hard on his sprint in the winter season, I think Marcato could be right up there among the best riders on Saturday.

Being as close as only Zabel has been to winning Milano - San Remo, Heinrich Haussler was denied the win by Mark Cavendish in 2009. Ever since Haussler has only been “close” to winning big races. Nevertheless he is always in the mix when the winner has to be found. To me it seems like Haussler is in good enough shape right now to pull off a top performance again this time and if it comes down to a sprint, he is definitely a rider to watch.

Other names for a mass sprint is Andre Greipel and Tom Boonen while Alessandro Ballan and Matti Breschel are good picks in a break away group.

Update: A lot of people is already asking why Peter Sagan isn't on the list. Well, of course Sagan has a real chance of winning Milano-San Remo but so many things need to go his way. If it comes down to a sprint, Sagan most likely needs to beat Cavendish, Greipel, Freire etc - can he do that? If not, he has to get away on Poggio and as I said, I think that is Nibali's only chance. Of course if something happens to Nibali, Sagan can play his cards on Poggio, but a lot of things really need to Sagan's way in order to win this race.

Favorites for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad & Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

It’s time for the Belgian cobblestones and I for one have been looking forward to this for quite some time now! Without much time on my hands I’ll go straight to it. Here are my favorites for the two races this weekend.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

Favorite number 1 is without any doubt Tom Boonen. This is one of the few races Tornado Tom hasn’t won yet and with the condition he has been showing so far this year, he is the man to beat. On top of that he even has one of the strongest teams to back him up. Riders like Chavanel, Ciolek, Steegmans are all there to work for Boonen and except for BMC I can’t see any teams with a line up as strong as Quickstep’s for this race.

It would be easy to say Juan Antonio Flecha, but to spice it up a bit I’ll go with Greg Van Avemaet. It’s true that both Philippe Gilbert and Thor Hushovd are there as well, but it’s not time for those two yet. Gilbert has RvV and the Ardennes on his mind while Hushovd has his mind fixed on Paris-Roubaix. This time Greg Van Avermaet has a rare chance to prove himself and with the shape he has proved to be in already, he is my best pick for a winner if not Tom Boonen takes it.

To stay with the outsiders, I’ll pick Marco Marcato. The Italian has recently made the cut for the Italian Olympic pre-selection and it seems like Marcato has started this season like he ended the last one – with style! Marcato has been working hard on his sprint during the winter and even though Vacansoleil also have Devolder on Leukemans on the roster for Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, I think Marcato will be their designated leader. Look out for this in-shape Italian on Saturday!

Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne

Like last year I think it will end up in mass sprint this time as well and who is the best sprinter of 2012 so far? Andre Greipel! The Gorilla has been outstanding and been climbing very well too. If he is ready after Tour of Oman he will be the number 1 favorite, and that’s even with Mark Cavendish on the starting line as well – new world…

It’s too easy to say Mark Cavendish now and honestly I don’t know if he’s up for it already. I'll go with another outsider in Yauheni Hutarovich. The Belarus took second place last year and seems to be in good condition already as well this year. He has been just short of stage wins in both Tour Down Under and Tour Méditerranéen and normally he is good in the Belgian races. Have you practiced your spelling? If not, do it now, cause the name Yauheni Hutarovich is likely to be mentioned in the top3 Sunday…

There are a lot of riders who can surprise this weekend and being Danish and all I sure hope Matti Breschel is one of them. Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is a very important race for Rabobank and it would be great to see Matti back in the mix with the best riders again. Also look out for Baden Cooke. The Australian has been great all season so far, and if he gets a chance it could take top3 in any of the two races.

Follow the money

Who is going to win the race today? Maybe you need to update your manager team, maybe you are planning to put down a little money on the race or maybe you are just generally interesting in cycling. Whatever your reasons are to ask this question, the answer is very simple; follow the money - and then you will see.


Some people like to follow the expert’s picks – as you have been doing at this very site during the Tour and the Vuelta – while some prefers to follow their favorite tipster. You can get good picks this way, but if you want the great tips, you have to pay close attention to the bookmakers. Not on who the bookmakers think will win – let’s face it, they don’t really know more than you anyway – but pay attention to the riders whose odds suddenly start to drop heavily. It takes some time see it, but when you get the hang of it, it’s easy to see who the real favorites are.

Let me show you a couple of examples.

Giro d’Italia, stage 17 - May 25th.
On paper a typical breakaway stage. One of those stages where half of the peloton wants to give a shot and see what happens. As those of you who follow cycling closely know, this stage had names like Giovanni Visconti & Pablo Lastras written all over it and just like that both riders managed to get into the right breakaway. A coincident? No. These riders are experts in hitting the right breaks and therefore the odds on Visconti & Lastras aren’t very high at the start of the stage (around odds 10-20). The odds on a guy like Diego Ulissi are on the other hand much, much higher. Starting in around 200 or 300.

So, you might ask, how are you supposed to know that Ulissi is a good pick for this specific stage when the odds are so much higher on him than on ‘favorites’ like Visconti and Lastras? Well, this is where my thesis from before comes in handy – follow the money! It’s no secret that most bets on the cycling are placed in the final hours before the race starts. Therefore it’s a good idea to keep an open eye on the odds at this time. If you did back then, you would have had witness something very interesting. Suddenly the odds on Ulissi started to drop, from 300 to 200. From 200 to 100 and from 100 down to 40. It’s true that odds 40 still is a very high odds, but with the money placed on Ulissi it was easy to see that someone knew he was on fire that day.

6 hours later Diego Ulissi had won the stage. It’s true that he won because Visconti got disqualified in the sprint, but if you had bought Ulissi at odds 300 (or just 100) you would have been able to lay him on betting exchanges such as Betfair at odds 2 during the stage. In other words you would have been able to make a huge profit no matter what would have happen in the final sprint if you had followed the money and placed a bet on Ulissi when the odds on him started to drop.

Another example is from Paris-Tours last Sunday.
Usually the markets on cycling are very low at this point of the season. Meaning that the list of 20+ bookmakers with odds on the Tour de France is reduced to only a very few for Paris-Tours. One of these bookmakers is Betfair, but as always with these late season races, the liquidity is very low. That means that when the total amount of euro placed isn’t higher than a few thousands (many, many, many times lower than during the Tour) and then suddenly a rider at odds 100+ starting to get 20% of money it raises a few eyebrows. Or at least it should do!

The rider I’m talking about is Marco Marcato from Vacansoleil-DCM. Marcato sure seemed to be in the shape of his life, doing top10 in both of the Canadian races and winning Tour de Vendée just a week before, but to drop all the way down to odds 30 did seem a little off. Riders like Philippe Gilbert, Oscar Freire, Robbie McEwen, Sylvain Chavanel and the new World Champion Mark Cavendish were all to be considered as the big favorites for the race, and therefore it stands out when the few money on the race suddenly go to Marcato at such a high odds.

But just as the case with Diego Ulissi, Marco Marcato turned out to be the smart bet ending 2nd in the race behind Greg Van Avermaet. Starting at odds 100+ to win and odds 25 for a top3 spot, the Italian Vacansoleil-DCM rider sure made a few punters go to sleep happy that Sunday.

I could give a lot of examples like these two, but I think you got the basic idea now. So remember, if you want to get best picks for a race, always follow the money!