The
cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I
have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van
Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very
difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the
big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.
The race organizers
have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the
top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World
Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg
and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe
Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a
good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good
chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if
Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.
Another
important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over
Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final
and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before.
The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a
smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.
The way I
see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting
better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for
the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and
a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans
has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco
in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both
races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the
line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to
support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should
Sagan miss out.
Other strong
candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro
Valverde and Damiano Cunego.
Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is
still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the
Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3rd
place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde
has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he
should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano
Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on
Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge
and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final
time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal
for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.
Last year’s
winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is
naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck
while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so
I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.
Team Blanco
have two very good cards to play in Bauke
Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter,
but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco
and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be
targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte
Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is
almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while
training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not
100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.
Like
always, I have a joker too; Angel
Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics
with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling
Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite
the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old
level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3rd
place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and
Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this
week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg,
but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take
a podium spot on a good day.
Other
interesting names are Marco Marcato
and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out
for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the
latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and
with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman
was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to
stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun
in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.
Quickstep
haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance
this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not
Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the
hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish
last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!
Winner pick: Peter
Sagan
Podium picks: Phillipe
Gilbert & Simon Gerrans
Jokers: Angel
Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter
Velits
For live race coverage check out steephill.tv
For live race coverage check out steephill.tv
Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013
Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013
