Tour de France 2013: Preview & Favorites

The Tour de France route 2013 - click for larger view.

Many people criticized last year’s Tour de France of being ’too boring’. Looking at start list, I doubt that will be the case this year.

It’s true that Team Sky once again have the big favorite but the compared to last year, there are a lot more riders able to fight for the final podium.

This year’s race includes 21 stages. I have divided them into the following categories:

6 x “100 % sprint”.

2-3 x “sprint in a reduced peloton”.

3 x time trials; 2 ITT and 1 TTT.

4 x mountain top finish

2 x mountain downhill finish

3-4 x hilly/breakaway

Both of the individual time trials are short this year (33 km & 32 km) and with an extremely hard last week (one hilly ITT and three mountain stages in the Alps), it’s safe to say that the pure climbers have a good chance of succeeding this year. I have a good feeling about the first five riders in the general classification. Still, I only see two riders with a solid chance of winning Tour de France overall. My view on the riders’ chances can be categorized like this (the order is irrelevant):

Winner:	Podium:
Chris Froome	Richie Porte
Alberto Contador	Alejandro Valverde
	Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Top5:	Top10:
Cadel Evans	Thibaut Pinot
Tejay van Garderen	Jakob Fuglsang
Jurgen Van den Broeck	Bauke Mollema
Ryder Hesjedal	Daniel Navarro
Nairo Quintana	Jean-Christophe Peraud
	Haimar Zubeldia
Top20:	Rein Taaramae
Rui Costa	Pierre Rolland
Damiano Cunego	Dan Martin
Andy Schleck
Wout Poels
Andrey Amador
Roman Kreuziger
Janez Brajkovic
Robert Gesink
Daniel Moreno
Arnold Jeannesson
Laurens Ten Dam
Igor Antón
Thomas De Gendt
Michal Kwiatkowski
Mikel Nieve Andrew Talansky

Chris Froome has been the best stage race rider this year and anything but a top performance from him in the Tour will be a big surprise. He is one of the best time trialists in the race and despite the short distances; he will be able to take a lot of times on this rivals against the clock. Had it been Wiggins, I would expect the climbers to take back the time in the mountains but Chris Froome will be very difficult to drop uphill. He was the strongest rider in the mountains in the last year’s Tour de France and he only seems to be stronger this year. Furthermore, he has Richie Porte to help him. 

Porte has taken a big step up the ladder this season with his overall win in Paris-Nice and his second place (behind Froome) in Dauphiné. Porte’s next big individual target is the Giro d’Italia 2014 but that doesn’t stop him from talking about a podium spot in this year’s Tour. The time trials are definitely in Porte’s favor but I don’t think Team Sky can make a double (1^st & 2^nd) like last year. Still, third place overall doesn’t seem unlikely. It all depends on how strong Froome is in the last week. If he gets isolated early, naturally he’ll have to use Porte early as well. If not, Team Sky probably end with two riders on the podium again this year.

Many are questioning Alberto Contador’s chances. This year he hasn’t been as strong as earlier but what people tend to forget is that this has all been part of a bigger plan. Read more about that here and see what his teammate Jesus Hernandez says about Contador's chances. It's also important to remember that Contador's results haven't been bad at all. He was 4^th overall in San Luis, 2^nd overall in Oman, 3^rd overall in Tirreno, 5^th overall Pais Vasco and 10^th overall in Dauphiné. Contador said he was only on 75 % in Dauphiné and I think he would have won the final stage had he not waited for Michael Rogers. Many would probably have a different view on Contador’s chances had he won that last stage and I guess that’s why so many don’t think he stands a chance against Chris Froome. Personally, I think it will be a close fight between Froome and Contador but it all depends on how much time Contador loses to Froome in the time trials.

As my list reveals I expect Valverde & Purito to be fighting for a spot on the final podium. This year’s route is as perfect as it gets for Purito. The time trials are short and the final one is very hilly. He will probably lose about four minutes to Froome against the clock but he has a chance of taking some of it back in the mountains and in the stages ending downhill. Few - if any - in the professional peloton can match Purito’s kick uphill and I won’t be surprised if he takes 10-15 seconds on Froome (thanks to late attacks close to the line) in a couple of the uphill finishes. Purito is also very good on the descents and knowing he needs to take back time, he should embrace every opportunity he gets. The most important thing for Purito this year is to get the overall place “he deserves”. Most likely he feels that he should have won both the Giro and the Vuelta last year and therefore he now hopes to end where he deserves. 2^nd or 8^th is not ‘that’ important it seems - as long as it matches his performance.

Alejandro Valverde has one of the strongest teams in the race to support him this year but that doesn’t help him much in the time trials. I think Movistar will be very close to Team Sky in the team time trial but in the two individual ones, Valverde will lose time. Therefore, he too needs to attack. His big goal is a spot on the podium in Paris and with super domestiques like Quintana and Rui Costa (and Amador) he can’t complain about the support. I doubt Valverde can drop Contador, Froome and Purito uphill but he will be able to drop many of the other contenders with help from his team and especially Nairo Quintana.

Stage 15, 18, 19 & 20.
Click for larger view.

The Colombian super climber could very well aim at Top5 himself this year but he knows the time is not right. He is still young and this year everything is build up around Valverde. Quintana has been preparing himself for the Tour home in Colombia for the last two months. Contrary to many of the Tour riders, he will arrive to Corsica without any recent race competition in his legs and I won’t be surprised if he loses time in the first week. That being said, don’t be surprised either if Quintana is fighting with Thibaut Pinot and Tejay van Garderen for the white jersey in the last week. The final week is so extremely hard this year and anything can happen. A couple of lost minutes from the first week is nothing compared to final days in the Alps.

Before the Giro d’Italia started this year, I doubted Cadel Evans chances of success, what a mistake! The Australian veteran had been talking about peaking in the Tour the whole season and therefore I couldn’t see him dig deep in the Giro. Still, he managed to finish third overall. 

The Giro was very hard this year though, despite the cancelled climbs, and once again I now doubt Evans’ chances. Maybe it’s a mistake but is it really possible - in modern cycling - to do Top3 in the Giro and Top3 in the Tour the same year? Especially with two such hard routes? Time will tell. 

BMC also have Tejay van Garderen to play but according to the American, he’s only here to help his captain. This is most likely Cadel Evans' last chance to lead a team in the Tour - aiming at the GC - and I think the team really want to back him up. Van Garderen still has about 10 years ahead of him on top level and sacrificing one year - and still doing well in the GC - shouldn't really be a big issue for him. 

There are many [equally] strong riders fighting for the Top10 places this year and instead of going through all of them (see my list above for that matter), I’ll leave you with a couple of jokers. First one is Daniel Navarro. After being one of Contador’s faithful helpers for many years, Navarro now has a chance to show his own potential. Saxo-Tinkoff didn’t want to keep Navarro at his current salary and when Cofidis were ready to make him captain, the choice wasn’t really that tough for the Spanish climber. So far it’s been a great match. Daniel Navarro finished 12^th overall in Paris-Nice, 16^th overall in Catalunya and latest 5^th overall in Dauphiné where he were among the strongest uphill.  Originally the plan for the Tour was to aim at a stage win but with the impressive performances in Dauphiné, Cofidis & Navarro now aim at the overall classification instead. The French team also have Rein Taaramae for the GC and together with Jerome Coppel and Christophe Le Mevel they have a very strong team to support Navarro. In fact, Cofidis are my outsider for the Team Classification this year.

I also expect a strong performance from Andrey Amador. He’s probably only ranked fourth in the Movistar team for this Tour de France but I think we will see a lot of him, especially in the third week. Amador is an excellent climber and like [teammate] Quintana, he’s been preparing himself at home in the mountains. The Irazú volcano [3500 meters above sea level] in Costa Rica is where Amador has been training and he showed in Tour de Suisse that he’s ready with a strong performance in the final time trial. In the Tour de France Andrey Amador hopes to hit a morning breakaway and take a stage win like he did in the Giro d’Italia last year. Naturally, helping Valverde is the number one priority but it can also be a tactical advantage for Movistar to have Amador in a breakaway. Contrary to many other climbers Amador is also very good against the clock which will help Movistar in the team time trial. I expect them to make Top3 that day.

Before I end this Preview, let's take a look at the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan was my big favorite last year and he turned out to be even stronger than expected. This year, he’s once again the favorite but if Mark Cavendish is back on his top level, it will be a close fight. I see at least six “sure” sprint stages and even though Sagan is fast, he’s not as fast as Cavendish, Greipel & Kittel. There are more points up for grab in the flat stages. That means if Cavendish wins four of five stages without Sagan making Top3, he will get a good advantage. Sagan will be in the mix some days where Cavendish can’t keep up though. Still, I think it will be very close this year. Also, both Sagan and Cavendish have high hopes of wearing the Yellow Jersey early in the race this year. Therefore, what will end as a fight for green most likely will start out as a fight for yellow!

Many people ask me about my picks for the four jerseys. I think both the Polka Dot Jersey and the White Jersey are very tough to call this year but if I had to, these would be my picks:

Yellow: Chris Froome
Green: Peter Sagan
Polka Dot: Damiano Cunego / or an Euskaltel rider
White: Nairo Quintana
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Team GC: Movistar

Again this year, there will be daily Stage Previews during the Tour. I know many of you would like them online early but I simply don't have time to publish them before 21:00 - 22:00 CET. 

The stages of this year's Tour de France are set to finish around 17:00 / 17:30 CET. If you find yourself without a TV, go to steephill.tv for live streams.

Paris-Nice: Favorites & Jokers

Right after the three Grand Tours we find Paris-Nice when we talk about the toughest races of the year. It’s still very early and eight days of cold weather, heavy wind and difficult climbs make it a hard race to win. 

Last year Bradley Wiggins came as the big favorite and won. This year it’s very open! Looking at the start list, I see at least four riders with an equal chance of winning. Let’s take a look at them.

Tejay van Garderen has already shown good shape in San Luis and despite the last time trial being on Col d’Eze and not a flat one, I would be very surprised not to see the young American on the final podium. BMC have a strong team of riders to protect TJ on the flat - and windy - stages and according to TJ himself he’s climbing very well these days. It will be difficult for TJ to stay with the pure climbers like Robert Gesink and Nairo Quintana on the final climb on stage 5, but he shouldn’t lose more than he can take back in the time trial. Of course he can’t afford to lose a minute or more, but if he can minimize his time lose to 30-45 seconds I think he’ll end up winning the race.

For Robert Gesink it’s the complete opposite scenario. He needs to gain as much time as possible on the climb and then hope its’ enough to keep strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra behind him in the GC. Blanco have sent a strong team to support Gesink and especially Kelderman and Kruijswijk will be vital on stage 5. Alberto Contador managed to distance number two (Fränk Schleck) with almost a minute on La Montagne de Lure  in 2009 and Gesink probably needs to do the same if he wants to win overall. Together with Nario Quintana he’s my favorite for the stage win that day, but will it be enough?

While TJ needs to minimize the gap on the climb and Gesink needs to minimize the gap on the time trial, I think Andrew Talansky could be the full package. Talansky is strong on the climbs and the uphill time trial suits him perfectly. He has had a great winter season and he always gets better when the rest of the field are getting tired. Talansky was less than a second from beating Bradley Wiggins in the time trial in Tour de Romandie last year and he distanced Robert Gesink on most of the tough climbs in the Vuelta. If Talansky comes to the last three stages without any bad luck or time losses, he will be very difficult to beat, I reckon.

If anybody can beat him though, it’s Lieuwe Westra. The Vancasoleil captain got a big breakthrough in Paris-Nice last year where he won on Mende and finished second on the Col d’Eze time trial (just two seconds behind Wiggins) and according to Westra he’s actually feeling stronger this year. The big question here is if Westra can keep up with the best on La Montagne de Lure. On a good day, he shouldn’t lose more time than he can get back in the time trial, but if he doesn’t have one of his best days, I’m afraid he can only fight for the lower spots on the podium.

The last couple of years I’ve been praising Rein Taaramae but being sick just a few weeks before the race, I doubt he will do much damage. That doesn’t mean Cofidis won’t be in the front though. Buying in new strong riders to help Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff couldn’t effort to keep Daniel Navarro at his current salary, so instead he went to try his luck as team leader of Cofidis. So far it’s been one of the best decisions in Navarro’s career as he has started out the season in a great way.  He stayed with the best on the climbs in Ruta del Sol where he finished 10^th overall and just a few days later he won Vuelta a Murcia. Navarro is not good in the wind, but if he can manage to position himself up front in the flat stages and come to mountain stage without a significant time loss I think he can do some real damage. The climbs in this race suits him very well and he really likes Col d’Eze too. Last year he surprise quite a few - myself included - when he finished 11^th on the that time trial and being a lot stronger this year and having to prove himself as team leader, I think Navarro is set for minimum top5 overall.

Before ending this preview, I would like to point out Nairo Quintana again. I know I already said it many times last year, but this guy is a future Grand Tour winner. He makes the toughest climbs look like nothing and I won’t hesitate to pick him to win stage 5. If Quintana really has a great day he can distance the rest of the field with about a minute on this stage and if he can attack Col d’Eze the same way he actually has a chance of winning this race overall. The way I see it, Nairo Quintana can either win Paris-Nice of end around top5-10. With strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra, winning might be too much to ask for, but I’m sure Quintana will show you why he needs to be mention among the race favorites.

As always, I have a few jokers too. First up is Ion Izagirre. The Basque fighter showed in the Giro last year that is to be taking seriously and he has started out this season in a very strong way. He finished 4^th overall in Tour Down Under and put it some strong attacks in Ruta del Sol where he ended 15^th overall. He can count on support from his brother Gorka and pure climber Mikel Nieve who also did well in Ruta del Sol. Izagirre is good in the short prologs and the climbs in Paris-Nice suit him just fine. He won’t win this race, but I’m sure you will notice him.

My second joker is Maxime Monfort. He was very close to winning Tour Med overall, but couldn’t keep up with Thomas Löfkvist on the steep climb. Monfort was also hit by the stomach flu that kept many riders from doing their best but I’m sure he will be ready for Paris-Nice. Last year he finished 7^th overall and despite a significant stronger field this year, I still think he will finishi in close to Top10. The big climb isn’t too steep for Monfort and the final time trial on Col d’Eze shouldn’t be too much for him either. Monfort is good against the clock and he’s never too far off on the climbs.

Like I wrote in the beginning, the field for Paris-Nice 2013 is very strong and the race very open! I think the winner will be one of the first four mentioned, but there is a large group of riders ready to challenge them. Here I’ll try to give my view on the final classification:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Andrew Talansky

3. Robert Gesink

4. Lieuwe Westra

5. Daniel Navarro

6. Nairo Quintana

7. Richie Porte

8. Jakob Fuglsang

9. Denis Menchov

10. Ion Izagirre

11. Michele Scarponi

12. Jean-Christophe Peraud

13. Maxime Monfort

14. Peter Velits

15. Rui Costa

16. Bart de Clercq

17. Gorka Izagirre

18. Mikel Nieve

19. Simon Spilak

20. Sylvain Chavanel

Volta Catalunya 2012

With just a few hours to the start of this year's Volta Catalunya here is a quick preview of the race.

Without a time trial in and with a lot of uphill sections Alejandro Valverde is of course the number one favorite. He has a great team around him with Moreno, Pardilla, Arroyo, Quintana etc. and it will take a real climber like Daniel Martin or Robert Gesink to beat him in the overall classification. Samuel Sanches is another rider with a good chance in the GC, same goes for Janez Brajkovic. Astana actually expect the Slovenian to fight for the overall win here.

I don't have much time to dig in any deeper about the favorites, so I figured I would give you my pre-top10 for the GC instead. Here you go:

1. Valverde
2. Gesink
3. Samu
4. Martin
5. Brajkovic
6. Andy
7. Cunego
8. Van den Broeck
9. Uran
10. Navarro

As always I would like to mention a few jokers for the GC. First up is the French youngster Thibout Pinot who climbs very well and aims high on this race. Pinot has a lot of strong riders around him and if he is ready he should be able to fight for a top10 spot, maybe even more. Second joker is Nairo Quintana. He won Vuelta a Murcia thanks to his performances in the mountains and even though he will have to help his team mate Alejandro Valverde, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up getting a good result for himself as well.