Tour de France: Stage 14 Preview & Favorites

After Friday’s boring sprint stage, it’s now time for some real action. Kidding aside, Saxo-Tinkoff showed they can outnumber Chris Froome in the crosswind but I doubt they will try something on this stage.

The Route

A morning breakaway is yet to make it all the way in this year’s Tour de France but I have a feeling it will happen this time. There are seven categorized climbs on the menu and even though they aren’t very steep, they should prove to be too much for the pure sprinters.

The first 60 km of the stage is flat and if the wind is strong we could see some teams trying to split the peloton once again. The forecast shows a light wind though and most likely, we will see fireworks of breakaway attempts instead. I expect these first 60 km to take place in a very high pace and since everybody knows this is a day for a breakaway, everybody wants to be up front.

The only thing that really can prevent a breakaway from making it is Peter Sagan and his Cannondale team. If they have the manpower to do another monster pull again, they could really make some damages. It all depends on the wind, who is in the break, how the GC riders feel and bunch of other things. Like I wrote the other day, Peter Sagan is not shy of attacking on these kind of stages and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get into the morning breakaway himself.

The Finish

The final 18 km of Stage 14 - Click for larger view.

The last 30 km include three category 4 climbs. They are not long nor steep but they serve as excellent places to test your fellow escapees. The last one, Côte de la Croix-Rousse (1.8 km / 4.5 %), has its top just after the 10 km to go banner. The run-in from here is very easy and with the expected tailwind, a strong rider may be able to keep a chasing group at bay. The last 2 km are straight out on Avenue Jean Jaurès and it will be a high-speed sprint should a bigger group arrive together.

The Favorites Breakaway Candidates

On a stage like this one, you can’t really talk about favorites. Today’s profile has “breakaway” written all over it but of course there are some riders more likely to hit the right break than others. Classic specialists like Juan-Antonio Flecha, Lars Boom, Philippe Gilbert and Sylvain Chavanel will all have this stage red-circled in their road books but so will about 100 riders. Lars Bak is another rider who’s recently been very good at hitting the right breakaways. He won a stage in the Giro d’Italia last year and managed to get into - what seemed like - the right break this year on a day he had marked. I know he has this stage written down and I won’t be surprised to see him in the final break.

Other solid breakaway candidates are riders like Thomas Voeckler (multiple Tour de France stage winner), Pierrick Fedrigo (last year stage winner), Arthur Vichot (French Champion), Jan Bakelants (stage winner and former yellow jersey), Alexey Lutsenko (U-23 World Champion) and Simon Gerrans (stage winner and former yellow jersey).

With the long flat finish I think it’s important to be fast on the line. If you’re not strong enough to go solo on the last climb, you need to pack a solid sprint. Riders like Michael Albasini, Enrico Gasparotto, Tony Gallopin and Julien Simon are other good candidates with a fast finish but honestly, I could keep on naming possible winners for days. Take a look at the start list and mark the fast guys who’s strong on these kind of hills. You will end up with a long list of names and if you pick out a couple of riders, chances are you will have at least one in the final break.

If I had to put my money on only one rider tomorrow, it would Jan Bakelants. He’s in the shape of his life right now and he’s already won one stage in this year’s Tour de France. He managed to bridge the gap to the break with Pierre Rolland on the second Pyrenees stage and that shows his climbing legs are great too. Bakelants is good at hitting the right breakaways and he’s also kind of fast on the line. His morale is high and after taking it easy on the second part of the time trial, I think he’s ready to do whatever he can to cross the finishing line first in Lyon Saturday afternoon.

Of course, should it all end with a sprint in a reduced peloton Peter Sagan is the man to beat.

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 14:

Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites

The cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.

The race organizers have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.

Another important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before. The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.

The way I see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should Sagan miss out.

Other strong candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro Valverde and Damiano Cunego. Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3^rd place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.

Last year’s winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.

Team Blanco have two very good cards to play in Bauke Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter, but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not 100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.

Like always, I have a joker too; Angel Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3^rd place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg, but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take a podium spot on a good day.

Other interesting names are Marco Marcato and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.

Quickstep haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Podium picks: Phillipe Gilbert & Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Angel Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter Velits

For live race coverage check out steephill.tv

Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR

— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Favorites for Strade Bianche

On Saturday we swap out the cobblestones in Belgium with white gravel roads in Italy. Montepaschi Strade Bianche (former Eroica) is on the menu and I think that we for once will get an Italian winner. Let's take a look at the favorites:

Oscar Gatto

Gatto's stage win in the Giro last year.

This may come as a surprise for many, but in my opinion Oscar Gatto is one of the strongest riders, taking part in the race, right now. Over the years he has been going from being "just a sprinter" to being good on the small hills and also on these gravel roads. He showed that last year in the Giro d'Italia taking 5th place on the stage to Orvieto on gravel roads and winning in Tropea i front of Contador after attacking on the final steep hill. In Strade Bianche last year Gatto tried to attack with Greg Van Avermaet in the final, but got railed back in again. Despite been on the attack he still managed to take 7th after Gilbert. If you look at Oscar Gattos recently results you may not be impressed, but I think it was clear to all who watched Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne last Sunday, that the little Italian is very strong right now. He also showed that in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad being in the group sprinting for 4th place. According to Oscar Gatto himself Strade Bianche is one of his top goals this season and without Gilbert in the same shape as last year, I honestly think Gatto can pull it off!

Alessandro Ballan

Ballan on gravel roads.

I said we would get an Italian winner and that is mainly because I see Alessandro Ballan as the second favorite for the race. Ballan took second place last year after messing up the last corner giving Gilbert a two meters gap. As I said, Gilbert is not as strong this early compared to last year, and therefore I think that Ballan very well could end up being the designated leader at BMC. Ballan started his season already in Tour Down Under and has been steadily improving ever since. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he worked hard in the peloton to catch the break away when team mate Thor Hushovd got dropped and in Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne he was one of most active guys in the big break with Tom Boonen (and Oscar Gatto). Alessandro Ballan has been 2nd in Strade Bianche twice already and I expect him to be on the podium this year as well.

Vincenzo Nibali

Nibali in the rosa working for Basso
on the muddy gravel roads in the Giro.

Another Italian rider? Indeed. Even though Liquigas have Peter Sagan and Daniel Oss on the team as well, I think this race suits Nibali the best. If you remember the epic Giro-stage in 2010 on gravel roads (won by Cadel Evans), Vincenzo Nibali was the one keeping his team leader Ivan Basso in the race, by an outstanding amount of work to minimize the gap to the front group. Nibali was flying that day and last year, on the stage to Orvieto,he took 6th place (right after Gatto). Another important factor not to forget is that Strade Bianche ends with a 300 meters downhill section with a lot of tricky corners (where Ballan lost the race last year) and that is definitely something Vincenzo Nibali masters better than anyone else.

I could actually go on with Italian riders among the candidates to the win. Giovanni Visconti and Simone Ponzi come to mind, like Enrico Gasparotto and young Enrico Battaglin. If I should point out a few foreigners though I think I would go with Ryder Hesjedal who loves this race and the Spanish veteran Patxi Vila who is aiming big at Strade Bianche this season. Talking favorites it may be shameful to not mention Fabian Cancellara, but for Cancellara the goals are coming later in the season. I think Radioshack will try with youngster Tony Gallopin and sprinter Daniele Bennati.