Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Giro Rosa: Stage 5 Results & Comments

Mara Abbott won the Queen Stage of Giro Rosa after a strong solo attack. Race leader Vos lost more than 5 minutes.
Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Stage 5 was the Queen Stage of this year's Giro Rosa and made a huge upset in general classification as Marianne Vos lost more than five minutes. Vos had been dominating the race until in the first four stages but now she only 7^th overall, 3:15 min after the new leader Mara Abbott.

Abbot from Boulder, Colorado won the race in 2010 and today she took an amazing stage win on the American Independence Day. “I am more than happy. I didn’t have any tactics, I just attacked when the road started to get steeper”, Abbott said after the stage.  

Marianne Vos knew it wouldn’t be easy for her today but she didn’t expect to lose the jersey. “I wanted to keep the jersey but the race is not over yet”, she explains.

New rider in the White Jersey is Francesca Cauz. The young Italian finished second on stage and now hopes to keep the jersey all the way. “I knew I was feeling good today and I have to thank my team, my sport directors and the sponsors”.

Second in the overall classification is Tatiana Guderzo who finished fourth on the stage. She’s now aiming at the time trial on the final day: “Today I wasted too much energy but I know the time trial suits me. I will take it day by day and tomorrow is already another hard day”.

Tomorrow Giro Rosa take place in the Verbano Cusio Ossola area, Elisa Longo Borghini's homeland. The Italian rider crashed at the national championship and had to forfeit for the Giro.We think her friends and teammates will prepare something special for her, like the Americans did today.

Stage 5 results:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

2. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 1'44"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'49"

4. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'51"

5. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 2'38"

6. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) 2'49"

7. Vysotska Yevgenia (Michela Fanini Rox) a 3'02"

8. Alena Amialiusik (BePink) a 3'45"

9. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) 3'51"

10. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3'51"

Overall Classification:

1. Abbott Mara (Usa)

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'27"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'34"

4. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'27"

5. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 2'30"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Cromwell Tiffany (Orica Ais)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Giro Rosa: Stage 4 Results & Comments

Marianna Vos takes her second stage win in a row after soloing away in the final. Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Nothing out of the ordinary in Giro Rosa. Marianne Vos won her second stage in a row and extended her lead in the overall classification.  She made the race hard herself and in the end she soloed after from a small breakaway. Vos doesn’t leave anything to other riders as she proves to be able to win any stage in this year’s Giro Rosa. She says: “After two second places and two victories I can’t ask for me. Winning is never easy and there is still many uphill kilometers before we get to Cremona on Sunday”.

Tomorrow is the Queen Stage of this year’s Giro Rosa. The 73.3 km to Monte Beigua end with a steep climb towards the finishing line. In our Overall Preview of the race, Walter Zini picked Evelyn Stevens as the favorite for the stage and Stevens has high ambitions. “I like tomorrow’s stage profile a lot. My team is strong and we aim to win. Still, it’s never easy with Vos in the race”.

South African Ashleigh Moolman took third place on Stage 4. A result that really boosted her moral: “I love these uphill finishes and my podium spot today gives me confidence for the upcoming stages”, Moolman explains.

Stage 4 results:

1. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

2. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3"

3. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) a 3"

4. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 3"

5. Hausler Claudia (Team Tibco To The Top) a 7"

6. Van der Breggen Anna (Nazionale Olanda) a 9"

7. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 18"

8. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 20"

9. Cromwell Tiffany (Orica Ais) a 20"

10. Abbot Mara (Nazionale Usa) a 22"

Overall Classification:

1. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

2. Hausler Claudia (Team Tibco To The Top) a 1'31"

3. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'33"

4. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'39"

5. Ratto Rossella (Hitec Products Uck) A 1'41"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

Youth: Van der Breggen Anna (Nazionale Olanda)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Tour de France: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Despite an undulating profile, this should be a stage for the sprinters. There are four categorized climbs on the menu but except for the first one, they shouldn’t really trouble the sprinters.

The Route

With its 228.5 km this is the longest stage of the Tour so far. Going west towards Marseille, the riders start climbing right away on Côte de Châteauneuf-Grasse. The climb is only 1.4 km long but it has an average gradient of 8.4 %. Many riders will be eager to get away and this is the perfect place to do so.

The two top sprinters of the race Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel are yet to compete in a bunch sprint in this Tour and Omega Pharma Quickstep and Lotto-Belisol will have to control the race. Peter Sagan is also out for revenge after finishing second twice already and his Cannondale team should help out too.

The last categorized climb has its top with just 20 km to go. On Corsica, the late climbs proved to be too much for the sprinters but it shouldn’t be case this time. The 5.7 km towards the top of Côte des Bastides kick up with 3.1 % and Cavendish and especially Greipel should be able to stay in the bunch.

The final 4 km towards the finishing line.

The Finish

According to ASO Côte des Bastides was the last climb worth categorizing on this stage. However, the riders still have to overcome Col de la Gineste. The 7 km towards the top aren’t steep but if some sprinters had troubles on Côte des Bastides, they will have big problems getting back into the peloton in time for the final sprint. The view from the top of Côte des Bastides over the Mediterranean Sea is spectacular and the riders can almost see the finishing line 12.5 km ahead. The descent is much steeper than the ascent of the climb and this should make for a fast finish.

The riders enters Marseille with about 6 km to go and continue on big roads all the way to the line. Coming down Avenue du Prado towards the sea, the riders pass the last km port before turning left on Avenue Pierre Mendès France with just 500 meters to go. It’s not a very difficult corner but it will stretch out the peloton. Therefore, it’s important to be among the first five or six riders in order to win the stage. Like the view from the top of Col de la Gineste, also the final 500 meters are breathtaking with the hills in the background and the Mediterranean Sea on the right side. So far ASO have really spoiled us with post card scenery in this 100^th edition of the Tour de France.

The Favorites

With everybody on 100 %, I would pick Mark Cavendish as the favorite. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Cavendish started out the Tour with bronchitis and even though he’s feeling better, he hasn’t been great so far. Another good candidate for this stage is Peter Sagan. He will have no problems with the climbs but the crash on Stage 1 has weakened him. He barely managed to keep Michal Kwiatkowski behind him on Stage 2 and came up short against Simon Gerrans on Stage 3. Sagan’s team hasn’t been good enough so far and even though it’s hard to bet against him, I don’t see Sagan as the big favorite for this stage.

Instead, my favorite is Andre Greipel. The German Champion came to the Tour in great shape but hasn’t been able to show it yet. He couldn’t keep up with the front group on Stage 2 but he came close to bridge the gap. On Stage 3 he quickly realized it wasn’t going to happen and I think he saved a little energy being dropped early on. Many don’t think Andre Greipel is good on the hills but he’s actually not bad at all. In Tour of Turkey he won Stage 4 despite a long climb near the finish and he has won uphill sprints in the past too. The hills today are not steep at all and Lotto-Belisol showed on the TTT that they are very strong. Both Greipel and Cavendish are behind in the fight for the Green Jersey and they can’t let this opportunity go to waste. Orica-GreenEdge will work hard in order to keep the Yellow Jersey and this should come down to a bunch sprint.

The Jokers

One of the strongest riders so far in this Tour de France has been Juan-Antonio Flecha. He has been attacking almost every day and I would be surprised not to see him try again soon. Vacansoleil-DCM are still without sponsors for next season and the riders are eager to show themselves and help the team get seen on TV. As I’ve said, it won’t be easy for a breakaway to make it on this stage. The sprinters’ teams want control the race and a morning breakaway seems doomed.

The view from the top of Col de la Gineste over the sea.

However, a late attack in the final may be the right choice. Normally I wouldn’t pick Flecha for an uphill attack but he showed on Stage 2 that his legs are great and that he’s climbing just fine. Flecha is fast on the line and should he manage to get away over the top of Col de la Gineste, the peloton will have to work hard in order to catch him. The wind is in favor of the peloton though. The final 12 km take place in a strong head / cross wind and that makes it hard to maintain a gap. Especially the last 2 km on Avenue Pierre Mendès will be extremely hard alone against the pack.

On the topic of jokers, look out for Julien Simon as well.  The French sprinter was furious after Stage 3 when Rojas blocked his way. According to Simon he had the legs to win the stage and he will be eager to demonstrate that in Marseille. His team mate Julien El Fares is another candidate. I’ve already mentioned El Fares earlier in the Tour and this is a stage he has marked in his road book. He comes from the area and his family and friends will be out cheering for him. However, in order for El Fares to succeed he needs to attack from a far. If he’s not up the road already, the Frenchmen will have to work hard for teammate Julien Simon in the final sprint.

Favorite: Andre Greipel

Jokers: Juan-Antonio Flecha / Julien Simon

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 5:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

Peter Sagan probably didn’t read the road book for Stage 4 as he was caught up in the middle of the peloton heading into the last corner. He tried to make up for it but he went the wrong way around and almost crashed against the barrier. He still managed to finish 7th on the stage and I think he is eager for revenge.

Stage 5 ends with two loops on a 26.5 km long circuit. Each loop includes two categorized climbs, both with an average gradient of aprox. 5 %. The climbs are short and they probably won’t make a big selection in the peloton. Still, they will make life hard for the pure sprinters. Jens Voigt almost managed to keep the peloton at bay on Stage 4 and if a group of strong riders gets away on the final loop, it could make things very interesting.

I think this will end in a sprint and contrary to the finish of Stage 4, there aren’t any tricky corners towards the this time. The road book shows a couple of turns in the final three kilometer but it’s really more the road bending a bit than an actual corner. The last 500 meters kick up with 4 % towards the line but after 2.5 km straight out, I don’t think the incline favors Peter Sagan more than anybody else. The five climbs in the last
66 km favor Sagan but a power sprint like this is more in John Degenkolb’s wheelhouse. The German sprinter came to Tour de Suisse after a training camp in Sierra Nevada so he shouldn’t have problems with these category 4 climbs. Degenkolb wasn’t sure how his sprinting legs would respond after training in the mountains but with a 4th place in a finish that didn’t suit him, I see him as one of the big favorites for the win in Leuggern.

Alexander Kristoff is another rider this type of finish is good for. The big Norwegian is getting better every season and he's now hoping to shine in the Tour this summer. Kristoff won three stages in Tour of Norway last month and he also won the peloton’s sprint in GP Gippingen last week. Kristoff now knows some of the climbs and that will definitely help him in the final. In the Tour de France, Kristoff will be left alone to do the sprinting and he doesn’t have a lot of help in Tour de Suisse either. This is a good opportunity for him to show the team that he can cope with the pressure and win on his own.

Looking for a joker, I think we should look to breakaway candidates. Phillipe Gilbert is still gunning for his first victory in the Rainbow Jersey. The most important task for BMC right now is to keep Mathias Frank in yellow but I wouldn’t be surprised if Gilbert was given a free role. He tried a couple of times in Belgium Tour a few weeks ago and again on Stage 2 of this race. Gilbert is one of the best riders on these type of climbs and he’s very fast on the line too. I still doubt a breakaway will succeed but if any rider can make it on a route like this one, it’s Phillipe Gilbert.

It’s difficult to pick a favorite between Sagan, Degenkolb and Kristoff but if I had to pick one, it would be Sagan. Simply because it’s difficult to image him missing out two days in a row.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Phillipe Gilbert

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 5 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

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The first mountain stage of the race, Stage 5 takes the riders across the Alps to Valmorel for a summit finish but don’t mistake this for the high mountains, this is a gentle introduction to the mountains although enough to provide a worthy winner.

If the time trial provided plenty of information on the relative form of riders, now it’s time for a ramp test.

Stage 4 wrap: Tony Martin won as expected but imagine if he not been bothered by stomach problems, his margin could have been even bigger and he’d be in the lead now. Rohan Dennis is a revelation. He’s been tipped for big things as whilst peers like Jack Bobridge and Luke Durbridge are seen as time trial specialists who can branch out into more, it’s said Dennis is the complete package and can climb well too. But don’t put too much pressure on him. Remember this time last year? Wilco Keldermann finished in fourth after an even longer time trial, the Dutch neo-pro got a great result and continues to progress but has yet to win big so hopefully Dennis can enjoy his day. Dennis was asked in a TV interview if he’d ride the Tour but he’s surely too young… although Garmin-Sharp might like him for the first week and the team time trial stage?

The stage was billed as a duel between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador but El Pistolero found his trigger was jammed, he says it’s allergies and the late and sudden spring means a high pollen count is getting to many. It’s not new but the Spaniard seemed allergic to his time trial position, shuffling on the saddle every few pedal strokes. Team Sky’s strong performance is even better news for Chris Froome. I’ve seen a few people talking up rivalry from Richie Porte but the pair train together regularly and I can’t see it. Instead it bodes well for Team Sky in the team time trial of the Tour de France although Froome’s odds for July have improved to the point where you’re wondering if they’ll be any suspense. But we’ve yet to see how he’s climbing.

Lieuwe Westra had a bad day, hopefully it’s his injuries and he’ll recover for July but he lost four minutes and Jurgen Van Den Broeck had a bad day too. Pierre Rolland lost two and half minutes, will he settle for this? His build makes him look like more than a climber but he could be limited to the mountains. Watch him this week.

The Route: the stage is short at 139km, indeed so short that the route has a loop where the race returns to the start in Grésy after 21km to add more kilometres. The Côte de Trévignin is 4.4 km climb at 6.6 %, a meaningful climb to lift the race up onto the Plateau des Bauges and crossing the route of Stage 20 of the Tour, the final mountain stage. The Col du Frêne is a tough climb… if tackled from the other side. Here it’s barely a mountain pass on this side and acts as an exit for the race to descend towards Albertville.

The Finish: there are two roads up but this takes the south-eastern way via Le Bois and the climb is 12.7km long at 7%. It’s a big wide regular road, the classic kind you find in the Alps to ferry coachloads of skiers to a resort. The route twists and turns with a series of hairpin bends near the finish, an ideal point for attacks where riders can exploit the gradient. It’s uphill all the way to the line but, despite the profile above, looks to level off a bit before the line.

The Scenario: the short distance should incite an early breakaway and the Côte de Trévignin is ideal for a move to go clear although their could be fight across the plateau to get into the day’s breakaway. The main thing to note is the final climb is 12km and after 120km, should take 30 minutes, it’s much shorter than, say, Alpe d’Huez and so leaves the result open to more riders.

Can Rohan Dennis hold on to the lead? There’s only five seconds between him and Chris Froome and we’ve yet to see how the Australian climbs but let’s note expect too much. The finish could suit him as it’s not so steep but for a neo-pro one day in the Dauphiné lead is already impressive. In some ways Sky might not want to assume the lead yet so that Garmin-Sharp can do the work every day but Chris Froome could well do with some more experience in leading a race and all that goes with it to add to his Tour de Romandie experience. Perhaps though Richie Porte could get something and we’ll how the other Sky riders are climbing. Maybe their mountain train makes an appearance?

It’s also the chance to see how others are doing. In particular what of Joaquin Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde? The finish is ideal for Valverde if he can follow the moves on the way up and deploy his finishing speed. For outside picks the finish isn’t ideal for a pure climber, it’s relatively short and fast so I’d discount the likes of Kenny Elissonde, instead look at Rein Taaramae who has been active in race already. His Cofidis team mate Daniel Navarro had a good time trial and should be climbing better.

Weather: sunshine turning to rain with potentially a storm. But the early start and finish every day could be a saving grace for those who don’t like the rain. And should it rain, the temperature is forecast to rise steadily throughout the day, going from 20°C to a fine 24°C during the day.

TV: tune in for the last hour to watch the approach to the final climb as the breakaway and bunch approach.

Top 20 Overall
1 Rohan Dennis (Aus) Garmin-Sharp 12:40:00
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:05
3 Michal Kwiatkowski (Pol) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:00:26
4 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Sky Procycling 0:00:32
5 Richie Porte (Aus) Sky Procycling 0:00:33
6 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:55
7 David Veilleux (Can) Team Europcar 0:01:09
8 Leopold Konig (Cze) Team NetApp-Endura 0:01:11
9 Stef Clement (Ned) Blanco Pro Cycling Team 0:01:14
10 Andriy Grivko (Ukr) Astana Pro Team 0:01:26
11 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Saxo-Tinkoff 0:01:30
12 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:33
13 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Katusha 0:01:40
14 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Omega Pharma-Quick Step 0:01:41
15 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Solutions Credits 0:01:45
16 Tony Gallopin (Fra) RadioShack Leopard 0:01:49
17 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack Leopard 0:01:52
18 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team 0:01:56
19 Alexandre Geniez (Fra) FDJ 0:02:05
20 Ben Hermans (Bel) RadioShack Leopard

Giro d'Italia: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

For the third day in a row, we have an undulating stage ahead of us. It’s another stage of more than 200 km and like the previous two, the first long stretch is flat before two climbs near the finish. The first one, Montescaglioso is only a category 4 climb but its 4.5 km with an average gradient of 5,6% - and parts of 10% - will thin out the peloton before the final.

In 2003, Marco Pantani attacked on Montescaglioso but despite a strong effort from the Italian legend, which made most of the sprinters lose ground, it all ended up in a bunch sprint. The profile of this stage looks a lot like the one the Giro organizers used 10 years ago and don’t be surprised if it ends in another sprint despite the hilly finish.

The final climb isn’t very steep and strong sprinters with a bit of climbing legs like Degenkolb, Ventoso and Goss should put their teams in front and try to drop some of the pure sprinters. The climb ends with 4.8 km to go and from here on it’s straight out with a bit of descending before the last kilometer kicks up with 2.8% all the way to the line. GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano both saved energy on Stage 4 for this stage and this could very well end up with a fight between Goss and Degenkolb.

This is also a great finish for riders like Pozzato, Felline, Gatto and Battaglin. Originally, I had Enrico Battaglin down for a “joker” spot on this stage but after his impressive win on Stage 4, I doubt he can be considered a joker anymore. These kind of climbs aren’t too tough for the young Italian and everybody saw how fast he is on the line Tuesday afternoon. Teammate Sacha Modolo might fancy this stage too and together with Battaglin, Bardiani really have a very strong duo for Stage 5.

The way I see it, the final climb isn’t hard enough for the favorites to test each other and with only a few sprint stages this year, the sprinters’ teams should be able to keep it together. Quickstep will probably try to take the lead in order to keep a pace Mark Cavendish is comfortable with, but Stage 6 seems like a better option for the Manxman. That being said, of course Cavendish will do everything he can in order to take another stage win as soon as possible. McEwen crossed the line first back in 2003 and if Cavendish can get back to the peloton after Montescaglioso, he’s the man to beat.

It’s not easy picking a favorite for a stage like this one. A break getting away on the final 10 km could easily make it to the line, but if teams like Movistar and Bardiani don’t have anyone in the break, it will probably end like in 2003. Still, the chances of Movistar being in the break are not bad. Giovanni Visconti is gunning for the Pink Jersey and even though he’s 52 seconds down, a 20 seconds time bonus for winning would bring him close if he gets away from the peloton.

Lampre haven’t had much luck so far in this Giro d’Italia. Roberto Ferrari was caught behind the crash on Stage 1, they had problems staying together in the TTT and then Michele Scarponi crashed on Stage 3. Their luck could change on this stage if Filippo Pozzato has a good day. Pozzato showed great shape in Tour of Turkey and after a disappointing Spring Season, he now has a chance to take revenge.

Favorite: John Degenkolb

Top3 Pick: Francesco Ventoso

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato & Giovanni Visconti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 5:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 5 Preview

Team Sky are in a league of their own. Especially with a strong head wind on the climbs. They seem unbeatable this year on mountain top finishes, so if you want to get them, you need a powerful kick and some steep percentages. Luckily for the spectators, that is exactly what we will see on this stage. The steep finish in Chieti has quickly turned into a classic Tirreno finish and it will be difficult for Team Sky to control the pack with gradients up to 19%.

Race leader Michal Kwiatkowski continues to perform on a high level this year and if the other favorites want to fight for the overall win, they need to drop him in Chieti. Kwiatkowski is very strong against the clock but on the steep parts, he has his limitations. 

Peter Sagan won this stage last year but it won’t be easy to repeat that win this time. The race organizers have made the finish even more demanding with the inclusion of Passo Lanciano (11.3 km at 8,6%) just 40 km from the line.  Sagan is great on the descents but if Team Sky set a furious pace uphill like on Prati di Tivo, he won’t be in the mix.

Final steep kilometers in Chieti.
Click for larger view.

The last 7 km see the riders tackle two steep parts separated by a 2,5 km descent. Gradients of 19% on the final hill provide an excellent chance for explosive riders to get a gap before the last, tricky, and flat kilometer towards the line. I know Purito didn’t live up to the expectations on Prati di Tivo, but I won’t hesitate picking him as my favorite again. Purito had problems on Prati di Tivo last year too and if he really is in better shape this year - as he states – he’ll win this stage.

The steep part ends with one kilometer to go and this is a great time to counter if the front group stops a little. Last year Vincenzo Nibali got away on the final 500 meters, but was overtaken by teammate Peter Sagan. Not a very wise tactical decision by Sagan who had to apologize to Nibali afterwards. Nibali wants revenge and if Purito doesn’t take this stage, I think Nibali is the best pick. He knows the final very well and he will be extremely difficult to catch if he manages to put in a late attack like last year.

Originally, I would have picked Mauro Santambrogio as joker for this stage but after his amazing performance on Prati di Tivo, I guess he can’t really be seen as a ‘joker’ anymroe. Same goes for Wout Poels who showed to be back on a great level after his horrible crash in the Tour last year. I think both will be up there in the final, but none of them really fit the joker category. Instead I’ll say Moreno Moser. The young Italian came to Tirreno-Adriatico aiming at the GC, but couldn’t keep up on Prati di Tivo. Moser now has to look for stage wins and stage 5 and 6 seems like good options for him. If he manages to stay near the front on the last steep part, he could profit from an strong attack just as it evens out with one kilometer to go. It won’t be easy, but hey; that’s why it’s called a joker.

One last thing. If the favorites don’t attack on Passo Lanciano and Peter Sagan stays in front over this climb, he’ll most likely end up winning the stage. I hope Nibali and Contador will try something far out, but in case they don’t, put your money on the Slovakian wonder boy. I can only pick one winner and even though all three (Purito, Nibali and Sagan) look good to me, I have to stick with my original idea and say Purito.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Paris-Nice: Stage 5 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

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The big summit finish of the race. The start town of Châteauneuf-du-Pape is somewhere to linger rather than leave. Once home to the Pope, the riders cannot stay because they have a meeting with heavens on the Montagne de Lure.

Will the race be decided today? Can Andrew Talansky cope? The answer is expected at 4.00pm today.

• Km 47.0 – Col de Mûrs, 10.3 kilometre-long climb at 4.3% – category 2
• Km 85.0 – Côte d’Oppedette, 7.1 kilometre-long climb at 4% – category 2
• Km 123.0 – Côte de Saint-Martin-les-Eaux, 2.7 kilometre-long climb at 3.7% – category 3
• Km 134.5 – Col de la Mort d’Imbert, 4.5 kilometre-long climb at 4.4% – category 3
• Km 152.0 – Côte des Mourres, 2.9 kilometre-long climb at 4.9% – category 3
• Km 176.0 – La Montagne de Lure, 13.8 kilometre-long climb at 6.6% – category 1

The Route
176km with plenty of climbing along the way but the six listed ascensions en route look small compared the Montagne de Lure at the end of the day. The visuals are right and the stats above confirm how gentle the route is although they each play their role in sapping the energy and motivating riders to go up the road to win points for the mountains jersey, currently worn by IAM Cycling’s Johann Tschopp.

The Finish
The Lure is the smaller sister of Mont Ventoux and 13.8km at a gradient of 6.6%, flattered by a softer section in the middle before the final four kilometres rise at over 7% to the line. But it’s easier than Ventoux and significantly faster in feel.

Starting at St Etienne les Orgues the passage through the town is awkward with narrow roads, drains and potholes, this matters because the pace will be fast as teams try to place their riders at the front. The first kilometre is steep and means riders will be going out of the back right from the start. The middle section is fast, some might deploy the big ring on the 5% sections and riders benefit from drafting. Then it kicks up for the last 4km, the serious part of the climb. The gradient eases for the finish line becoming a false flat and the road is some seven metres wide.

Overall this is no monster climb to savage the peloton. It’s fast in places and should be tactical, don’t be surprised to see a lot of riders glancing at their bike computers every 30 seconds to check if they’re riding to plan when it comes to their power output.

The Scenario
There are at least two races on today. First the fight for a stage win. Here there’s a big cast of contenders but anyone hoping for a win has to be a good climber. If a breakaway stays away only those at ease in the mountains should win. But it’s unlikely a move sticks because several teams will set a high tempo towards the final climb in order to set up their leaders, thus reeling in any escape move. Still for the stage win, rather than going in an early move we could see the likes of Robert Gesink who are down on the overall but still hungry for a stage win. The Dutchman could be “allowed” to ride away because he’s no longer a threat on the overall. The same for Nairo Quintana who crashed yesterday but seems to be ok.

Second there is the overall classification race, a subset of the first group. There are 22 riders within 26 seconds of Talansky and given the time bonuses available, it means one of several riders just need to get a gap on Talansky and take the stage and they’ll take the lead. Of these riders, only Chavanel looks likely to drop out of contention. When the race visited the Lure in 2009 he was in the yellow jersey and lost beaucoup time but these days he’s been training at altitude and has improved his climbing. Still I think this is too much. But there are many names ready to pounce. Lieuwe Westra lost contact on the descent in yesterday’s stage finish and looked solid when he rode back solo to the lead group, he also won the “mountain” finish last year above Mende.

Talansky rode well to take the lead but looked isolated yesterday and we’ll see if he’s got the likes of Jack Bauer and Fabian Wegmann on hard for support. If not his best interest is served by a small group forming quickly so he only has a few riders to survey. Yesterday’s stage saw a series of attacks on the descent into St Vallier but this time any attacks will shred the group and only the strongest survive.

Weather: cloud and rain at times. Temperatures will reach 14°C (57°F) and a light breeze of 5-10km/h from the south is expected.

TV: Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and X marks the spot,cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are where you’ll find the pirate video streams of the race.

History: the Montagne de Lure was climbed in 2009 when Alberto Contador rode away to win the stage but he later lost the race after running out of energy on another stage, prompting Lance Armstrong to tweet about Contador “having a lot to learn”, an early round of their proxy war ahead of the Tour de France. Things have changed since those days, for example Contador’s mystery coach Pepe Marti  from that year was caught in the USADA case (there’s still no verdict for him and Bruyneel). Fränk Schleck was second, Luis Leon Sanchez finished third and went on to win the race… but he’s now stuck at home as his Blanco team fret about his possible links to shady doctors.

Ride It: The sister mountain to Mont Ventoux, the Lure is worth riding up as it offers a peaceful experience compared to the busy ascension of Mont Ventoux where you might ride in the slipstream of cycling history but you also go into exhaust fumes and the stench of burning brakes and clutch plates from passing tourists in their cars. The Lure is trying to establish itself as an alternative, or at least an addition and there’s a “challenge” where riders can add their times to a list – currently topped by maxbouet, aka Maxime Bouet of Ag2r – and get a diploma.

Eat It: Drink it because the start in Châteauneuf-du-Pape rhymes with wine. The nearby Rhone valley and ancient glaciers deposited a bed of gravel which helps the wine, as ever poor soil makes for good wine. It’s also a big tourist destination for general holidays in July and August.

TDU Preview - Stage 5

It’s time to settle the general classification. As always this will come down to the bonus seconds but compared to last year, this time there are many riders with a good chance of ending on the final podium.

It’s clear that right now Geraint Thomas and Tom-Jelte Slagter are the two big favorites for the overall win, especially since Thomas dropped everybody else on the steepest part of Corkscrew Road and Slagter has turned out to be the fastest among the climbers. Still it would be foolish to count out anybody from Top13 just yet.

Last year the two strongest riders on Willunga Hill were Javier Moreno and Tiago Machado and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two took the win this time. Machado attacked very early last year and was caught with 1 km to go and I think he will be eager to take revenge. Radioshack have a super strong team for this stage with George Bennet, Ben Hermans and Tiago Machado all in the Top10 overall plus they have Jens Voigt and Jesse Sergent to set the tempo on the flat part. And hey, don’t forget Andy Schleck is here too. If he was to show his face at any point in this race, now would be the time to do it in order to help his team mates.

I know Tiago Machado is very motivated and that he believes he can win both the stage and race on Willunga Hill, but he still needs to shake of the rest of the great climbers. Last year Javier Moreno absolutely murdered the rest of the favorites’ intentions of attacking when the set a furious pace for team leader Alejandro Valverde and now it’s Moreno’s turn to get paced by a strong team. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada, Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador will all be ready to pull uphill on for the Andalusian climber while José Joaquin Rojas and José Ivan Gutierrez can control the peloton on the flat part like they did last year.

Team Sky will probably try to control the race as much as they can but near the coast it won’t be easy in the cross wind. Edvald Boasson Hagen hasn’t been on top of his game yet in this race, but he needs to do at least as well as last year on Willunga Hill to help Thomas get the overall win.

Personally I think this stage is perfect for Tom-Jelte Slagter if his Blanco team can manage to keep it together until the final kilometers. He has another young and strong climber, Wilco Kelderman by his side to help out and the average gradient of 7,6% on Willunga Hill should be in his favor. Furthermore Slagter showed in Stirling that he is the fastest man uphill right now, so if Machado, Thomas and others don’t drop him before the line he could very well end up winning both the stage and the race.

With the bonus seconds being so important I doubt the peloton will let a breakaway steal the win. Well, Team Sky would probably like to, but Blanco, Radioshack and Movistar will all work hard to prevent it. Therefore it’s also difficult to point out a joker who hasn’t shown much yet. Still I think Spanish climber, Rafael Valls will be a good pick for a top result on Willunga Hill. He’s currently sitting 15^th overall - 31 seconds after Geraint  Thomas - but so far the finishes haven’t been in his favor. Valls is a real climber and he needs an uphill finish to show his talent. He’s seems to be getting better and better every day and I think he will be among the first on the top of Willunga Hill.

What about Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans, you might ask. Well, Gerrans doesn't seem to have the same  legs as last year and I honestly think Gilbert will lack a little explosivity on Willunga Hill when the real climbers go for the GC.

  

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter / Tiago Machado

Joker: Rafael Valls

Vuelta Preview - Stage 5

After two stages for the climbers it’s now time for the fast guys to fight for the stage win. It’s another relatively short stage, only 168 km, with 8 laps of 21 km in Logroño, meaning that the sprinters will get time to study the finish before the end.

It’s a tricky route and even though the last kilometer if flat on the big Avenida de la Paz there are some difficult turns the riders need to pay attention to. About two kilometers from the line the route turns right in roundabout before turning left in another one 500 meters later. The last turn comes just before “flame rouge” where the riders turn right in a 90° curve.

It seems to be another hot day in Spain and with an expected head win the last kilometer, the sprinters need to save energy for as long as possible. My pick is once again Ben Swift who is strong in a tricky finish like this one and who I still see as the fastest guy in the race. On stage 2 he was in a terrible position in end and had to come from behind and got out in the wind way too early. Allan Davis and John Degenkolb took his wheel and only managed to pass him on the last 50 meters. 

Last 4 km - click for larger view!

Swifty’s only problem is that Team Sky’s focus is on Chris Froome and the overall classification and that means he will only have Flecha and Stannard to help out in the end. Still, Swift showed to have an incredible kick on stage 2 and if he manages to arrive in a good position he shouldn’t have  any problems taking his first (of many?) stages in this Vuelta.

My joker for the stage is Manuel Cardoso who’s been good in the Vuelta before. Cardoso’s team mate Marcos Garcia got world famous when he celebrated his 4^th place on stage 4 as had he won it and it would be nice for the little Caja Rural team if they got some real success now. I doubt Cardoso can beat guys like Davis, Degenkolb and Swift but he’s used to the warm temperatures and he knows how to perform in a bunch sprint after a tough mountain stage.  Furthermore, without a team to take control in the finale, the sprints will get very chaotic and that could be just what Cardoso needs to surprise the pack like he did when he won in Tour Down Under a couple of years ago.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Klaas Lodewyck

Explanation: The return to the Spanish plains should give the sprinters another rare chance to do battle in this year's mountains-heavy Vuelta. Swifty missed out on stage two but I expect him to draw level with Degenkolb on Wednesday. But Belgian youngster Lodewyck has been zesty so far and you get the impression he's enjoying being the joker of the pack. 

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Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 5

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First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers 

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 5

Gianni Savio explains:
This stage is made for the sprinters. Simple as that. The break will get away in the beginning of the stage and then it will get caught again before the finish, no big surprises. The favorites are the ones we have seen so far.

This could be for Mark Cavendish again.