Vuelta a España: Stage 11 (ITT) Preview & Favorites

After a well-deserved rest day, the Vuelta continues with a time trial. This has already been a very tough race and it will be interesting to see how the legs of the GC riders will respond after a day off the bike. We have often seen riders having an off-day after a rest day and alone against the clock, you can really lose some time if you’re not ready.

This year’s Vuelta is one for the climbers and that shows on the time trial too. The 38.8 km around Tarazona include a long category 3 climb. The road book has Alto del Moncayo to be 9 km long but actually, it’s already been uphill for a while before the official start of the climb. Compared to the last time trial in the Tour de France this year, this isn’t as tough. It’s definitely a hard course but with an average gradient of just 4.1 % and no steep parts, Alto del Moncayo won’t kill the hopes of the time trial experts.

In fact, the second part of the route favors the big engines like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara. Most of the final 20 km are downhill and we can expect a fast finish with a tailwind on this second part.

Favorites

Not surprisingly, the bookmakers' favorite is Tony Martin. He’s the double World Champion and he’s simply in a league of his own against the clock these years. The last time trial of the Tour had two hard climbs on the menu and naturally, a big rider like Martin didn’t stand a chance against Froome and Contador. The climb on this time trial isn’t as hard as those in the Tour and with a long and fast descent, it will be extremely difficult to beat the German Panzerwagen.

Fabian Cancellara is probably the only rider able to take this win away from Tony Martin. However, Cancellara hasn't been the same time machine we used see in recent years. This is probably also why he’s now focusing on the road race instead of the time trial for the World Championships in Florence later this month. Cancellara looks very lean right now and so far, he has been been very good on the climbs in this Vuelta. Because of this, some may say the climb favors him over Tony Martin but I think Cancellara’s hard work in front of the peloton will show in time trial. Tony Martin has been able to “take it easy” and save himself for this stage and that will be important. Of course, Cancellara is still a world-class time trialist and it will be a close fight for the stage win Tarazona!

Outsiders

Looking at the start list, there are many strong riders able to make podium in this time trial. Specialists like Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, Kristof Vandewalle and Lieuwe Westra all have what it takes to put in a strong performance. The climb may be too much for Vandewalle but I’m sure he’s eager to show off his Belgian national jersey. Pinotti did very well in the final time trial of Tour of Poland a month ago and on a good day, he should be up there fighting for top3. Westra has been very anonymous so far in the Vuelta. However, the team explains that Westra feels better and better every day and they now hope for a strong time trial from the Dutch national champion. For other good outsiders look to Luis León Sanchez, Jan Barta, Ben Hermans, Dario Cataldo and Edvald Boasson Hagen.

Astana has a lot of riders able to do well in this discipline. Jakob Fuglsang, Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert and Andriy Grivko can, in theory, all do top10 but I doubt Astana will let them go full speed. There is still a long way to Madrid and Vincenzo Nibali needs his strong domestiques to be ready when it counts. Kangert sits 14^th in the overall classification before this time trial and the team may give him the green light to try his luck. He did very well in the first time trial in the Giro this year and on a good day, he may re-enter Top10 overall Wednesday afternoon.

Overall Classification

Looking at the fight for the Red Jersey, I doubt Chris Horner will lead Vuelta España after this time trial. He’s more skinny than I’ve ever seen him and even though he has done good time trials in the past, I can’t see him keep the jersey. On the final, short (9.2 km) time trial in Tirreno-Adriatico, Horner almost lost 20 seconds to Nibali. This time trial is four times as long and despite the climb, Nibali will be able to take a lot of time on the American veteran. Last year, Horner finished 13^th overall in the Tour de France but even though he was in great shape, he didn’t do well in the time trials. The first time trial in the Tour that year was about the same length as this one and back then, Horner lost more than three minutes to Nibali. The time differences won’t be as big this time but surely Vincenzo Nibali is able to take back the 43 seconds he’s after Honer in the GC. Actually, we may even see Nibali make podium in this time trial.

Astana’s big plan for this Vuelta was for Nibali to start out the race on 75 % and by the first rest day reach 100 %. So far, everything has gone according to plan and it will be a big surprise not to see Nibali in the Red Jersey at the beginning of Thursday’s stage 12.

I also expect Nicolas Roche to do well. Bjarne Riis always demands his riders to focus on the time trials and Roche has made significant improvements this year. He finished 24^th in the final time trial in Tour de Suisse and no, that wasn’t because of the hard climb. Nicolas Roche actually had 14^th best time after the flat part. In front of riders like Peraud, Millar, Monfort, Klöden etc. In the Tour the improvements continued as Roche finished  28^th in the first time trial. The Irishman has lost 2.5 kg since the Tour and that really shows on the climbs. It will be interesting to see how weight loss will affect his time trial performance this Wednesday. He won’t beat Nibali but Roche should be able to keep the other GC riders behind him.

This is also a good course for Alejandro Valverde. He knows how to keep his pace on the demanding parts and Valverde is an excellent descender. The Movistar captain did very well in the final time trial of the Tour and even though this one isn’t as tough, he should be able to clock in a great time. Also, look out for his teammate Beñat Intxausti. The Basque rider is good against the clock and his time checks will be vital for Valverde. In addition to that, Intxausti starts just in front of Tony Martin. In the first time trial of the Tour, Thomas De Gendt started in front of Tony Martin. The strong Belgian had never been overtaken in a time trial before and he was eager to keep his record. At the end of the day, Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd on the stage.

Starting Order

Lieuwe Westre starts as number 18 at 13:31 and his time will most like stand for a while. Marco Pinotti starts at 14:15 and just three minutes later, it’s Tony Martin’s turn to take the starting ramp. Fabian Cancellara starts at 14:54 and as the last rider, Chris Horner roles out on the course at 16:50 local time. You can see the complete starting order HERE.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For this time trial, Laura picks Fabian Cancellara to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

This is the first of two individual time trials in this year’s Giro d’Italia and it’s the day Bradley Wiggins has to make his mark on the race. These 54.8 km against the clock will change the general classification completely and the tiny climbers will end up losing many minutes on this stage. Most of the riders in this race have probably never done such a long time trial in a Grand Tour and it’ difficult to predict how their legs - and mind - will react to this brutal test.

The time trial is hard right from the beginning and if the distance wasn’t a tough enough enemy already, the last 3 km will be. After more than 50 km on the TT bike, the riders face the final uphill part towards the line. It starts out gently with 3.6% but the last kilometer kicks up with 13%. After such a long stage, and Stage 7 still in the legs, many riders will hit the wall and cross the line as if it was the top of Zoncolan.

Talking about favorites, there is really only one. Bradley Wiggins should be in a league of his own for this stage but it all depends on his condition after the crash on Stage 7. Wiggins tried out the course a couple of weeks before the Giro started and said he found it extremely hard. I have no doubts Bradley Wiggins will win this stage if he’s ready, and now he must be even more motivated than before. He’s 1:32 min after Beñat Intxausti and 1:27 min after Nibali. Before Stage 7, I had Wiggins to beat both of these with about 2 minutes, so don’t be surprised if he ends up in Maglia Rosa after all.

Vincenzo Nibali isn’t known for being a time trial specialist but on a course like this one, he should be able to fight for the best positions. Nibali has been working hard on the TT bike the last couple of years and even though he can’t match Wiggins on the flat parts, he will be able to push hard in the uphill sections. He finished 9^th in the time trial in the Tour de France last year and he started out strong in Argentina with a 4^th place this year. I think Nibali will be satisfied if he doesn’t lose more than 2 minutes to Bradley Wiggins in this stage and if so, he should be able to do Top5. On a great day, he could make Top3.

Top3 is definitely also an option for Cadel Evans. I didn’t give the Australian many chances in the my overall preview since he’s aiming at the Tour this year. Still, he has been very strong in the first week and he could very well end making another good result in this time trial. It’s difficult to predict how Cadel Evans will do against the clock since he hasn’t really been going all out in the ITTs this year, but if he has a good day, he could make Top3 and maybe even take the jersey?

I’ve said many times that I expect big things from Beñat Intxausti in this Giro d’Italia and after taking the Pink Jersey he now has a chance to gain more time GC rivals like Scarponi, Gesink, Santambrogio, Kiserlovski etc.  Intxausti is a very good time trialist and he always gets better when the terrain is tough. He has never done such a long time trial before in his career and that does talk against him, but I still think he will surprise you and make a great result. It won’t be easy to keep the jersey but it’s definitely not impossible. May 23^rd marks the day of Xavier Tondo’s death and so close to the day, I’m sure Intxausti won’t feel alone on the bike despite the long distance. He dedicated the jersey to Tondo and his grandfather after Stage 7, and both will be with him in spirit on Stage 8.

Other riders to look out for in this stage are Fredrik Kessiakoff and Manuele Boaro. Kessiakoff knows what it takes to win a time trial in a Grand Tour and after starting out the Giro a bit sick, he now seems to be back in shape. Manuele Boaro is a very talented time trialist and he has shown great legs the last couple of weeks. He didn’t impress much in the time trial in Tour de Romandie but I’m sure he has been targeting this one for a while. Teammate Mads Christensen has also been very strong in his recent time trials and I think he could do Top10 in this one on a good day.

Dario Cataldo would have been another good pick for a Top3 place in this stage, but being sick since the TTT, Cataldo doesn’t seem ready for such a hard fight against the clock already. Naturally, Cataldo will be eager to show off his Italian Champion jersey but being only at 70% - his words - right now, I doubt he has what it takes. In theory, Rigoberto Uran could do very well, but with Team Sky backing Bradley Wiggins 100%, Uran and the rest of ‘gregarios’ could take it easy and save some energy for the mountains.

Last rider I would like to point out is Taylor Phinney. The young American seems like a good pick but like Cataldo, also Phinney has been sick recently. Of course, he will give it his all, but it won’t be easy to perform well in this time trial if you’re not 100%.

You'll find the starting order for the time trial here.

Favorite: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Vincenzo Nibali

Jokers: Fredrik Kessiakoff / Manuele Boaro

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 8:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Let it be said right away; there are two big favorites for this race and then a handful of riders fighting for the last step on the podium. The first 8 stages include two difficult time trials - one TTT and one ITT - and from this point on it will be everybody against Bradley Wiggins.

Last year’s Tour de France winner is expected to destroy the rest of the peloton on the 54.8 (!) undulating kilometers against the clock on stage 8 and I doubt Wiggins will let Maglia Rosa leave his shoulder after this day.

The last week of the Giro is always extremely hard and this year is no difference with five mountain top finishes, one of these a mountain time trial with just three days to go. The sprinters probably won’t have more than four or five days to win this year and with 20 bonus seconds to the stage winner every day (except for the time trials), I doubt we will see many breakaways making it in the mountains. This is Bradley Wiggins’ race to lose and Vincenzo Nibali, Ryder Hesjedal, Michele Scarponi, Robert Gesink and Samuel Sanchez all have to attack and take as many bonus seconds as possible.

On paper, there are plenty of opportunities to attack Bradley Wiggins in the mountains but Team Sky are not messing around. Rigoberto Uran, Sergio Henao and Dario Cataldo could lead many teams in this race, but they are all committed to work hard for Wiggins. Team Sky showed in the Tour de France last year, that they have what it takes to slowly kill the competition and drain the rest of the favorites for energy with a hard steady pace. The small and explosive climbers may be able to distance Wiggins and his team in the big mountains, but the time differences won’t be a big as the ones in the time trials. In the past, Bradley Wiggins had problems on the steep climbs but he has been working hard on that this year in order to be ready for the Giro. He now no longer fears the steep percentages and the way I see it, there is only one rider able to beat Wiggins this year.

Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in the shape of his life heading in to this Giro d’Italia and I expect him and Wiggins to take the first two places on the final podium. Nibali doesn’t have Wiggins raw power in the individual time trials, but Astana do have a strong team for the TTT on stage 2. Nibali lost 2 and 3½ min in the two ITT’s in last year’s Tour de France and I think he will end up losing around 2½ min to Wiggins in the long ITT here. He showed in Giro del Tretino a few weeks ago, that he is getting better on the steep parts, and I think he will surprise a few with some strong attacks when the gradients kick up. There are many “medium” stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia and I think Nibali and the rest of the favorites will take advantage of every opportunity to drop Wiggins if possible. Both Nibali and Wiggins are rock solid and don’t really have off-days. It’s true you can lose the race on just one day, especially in the last week, but I seriously doubt any of these two will go down like that. Nibali is best uphill, Wiggins is best against the clock and unfortunately for Nibali, the time differences will be biggest in ITTs. Still, Nibali is very proud and he never gives up. Don’t count him out until the end of the penultimate stage.

In my preview last year, I only had Ryder Hesjedal down for 8^th place overall and after his impressive win, I think it’s only fair to now put him as the first contender for the last spot on the podium. His season so far has been very similar to the one last year and being two kilos lighter than in 2012, I think Hesjedal will prove that last year wasn’t a one-time thing. I doubt he can drop Nibali uphill or stay close to Wiggins in the time trials, but he now knows that it takes, mentally as well, to win a Grand Tour. Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal have won a Grand Tour within the last couple of years and I doubt any of them will have an off-day in this race. Garmin aren’t nearly as strong as Astana and Team Sky but they showed last year, that it wasn’t a problem. Danielson, Stetina and VandeVelde will be Hesjedal’s last three in the mountains and it should be enough for the strong Canadian.

I told myself last year that I would give Robert Gesink one more chance to prove his abilities as a serious overall contender in a Grand Tour. This is it. Gesink has been called “a future Tour de France winner” for a long time now but he is yet to show he can walk the distance. He’s done Top10 in the Vuelta three times and once Top5 in the Tour, but he always seems to run into bad luck. This year, Robert Gesink has put everything on the Giro d’Italia and despite a mixed start of the season, I do believe Gesink is ready to aim for the podium in this Giro. He came to Tour de Romandie after two weeks training on Teide (Tenerife) and did show some good racing the first days before he took easy in the bad weather with eyes on the Giro. He claims to be in great shape right now and I think Gesink will make Top5 this in this Giro - maybe even podium if everything goes his way. Remember, Blanco still don’t have a sponsor for next season and naturally Gesink and the rest of the team will do everything they can in order to show they are worth sponsoring.

Like Gesink and Hesjedal, Michael Scarponi hasn’t shown much this season. He did however manage to take 3^rd place overall in Volta Catalunya after a sneaky attack on the final stage. He took it easy in Giro del Trentino after a training camp but showed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (5^th place) that the shape is good. Scarponi was the big favorite last year but couldn’t live up to the expectations and ended 4^th in the overall classification. Scarponi isn’t strong in the time trials but he is rock solid. If he’s named among the favorites you can be sure he will end among the best. He’s has finished in Top4 the last three years in a row - winning in 2011 after Contador got suspended - and I think he will make another Top5 performance this year.  He can rely on strong riders like Niemiec, Serpa and Stortoni in the mountains and like Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal he never has a real off-day. Without the long time trial on stage 8, Scarponi might had have a chance of winning this race overall, but now I think Top5 is the best he can aim for.

The last rider with a solid chance of Top5, in my book, is Samuel Sanchez. Officially, the goal for Euskaltel and Sanchez is a stage win - which will make Sanchez join the club of stage winners in both Giro, Tour and Vuelta - but I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel Sanchez ends up fighting for a spot on the podium. He’s already been on the podium in the Vuelta a couple of times and - on paper - also in the Tour. Naturally a stage win would be more important than ending 6^th or 10^th overall, but if Sanchez manages to pull off a stage win in the first half of the Giro, he might as well give everything for the GC too.

Stage 20 - The penultimate stage of this year's Giro d'Italia.
The final chance to change to move up in the GC.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, there are 6-8 riders left fighting for the last four places in Top10 overall. Franco Pellizotti will be eager to show off his Italian Champions jersey on home soil and I expect him do very well in the last week. Beñat Intxausti already showed last year what he can do in the Grand Tours and I think now the time has come for him to lead a team. He’s very strong in time trials and he defends himself just fine on the climbs. Last year, Intxausti said he was aiming for a podium spot in this Giro, but I think a Top10 place is the most realistic result for the Basque rider.

My own personal joker for this Giro d’Italia is Robert Kiserlovski. He moved from Astana to Radioshack before this season in order to get his own chance in the big races, and he has had his eyes on this race ever since. While others dream about the Tour, Kiserlovski dreams about the Giro and he showed in Tour de Romandie that he’s in great shape right now. Kiserlovski’s weak spot is the time trials and that is also why I can’t see him do better than around 10-15 overall. I think he will surprise quite a few in the mountains and with Thiago Machado at his side, he can count on good support uphill. 

I could go on for hours about the rest of the GC riders in this Giro d’Italia, but instead I’ll leave you with this Pre-Top20 for the general classification:

1. Wiggins

2. Nibali

3. Hesjedal

4. Gesink

5. Scarponi

6. Sanchez

7. Pellizotti

8. Intxausti

9. Kiserlovski

10. Betancur (White Jersey winner)

11. Pozzovivo

12. Santambrogio

13. Majka

14. Uran

15. Machado

16. Cataldo

17. Trofimov

18. Pirazzi

19. Serpa

20. Henao

As you can see, Cadel Evans didn’t make my list. To me, it seems like Evans still think he can win the Tour this year and therefore I seriously doubt he will dig deep in this Giro. I expect him to go for a stage win one of the days instead.

Remember, there will be Stage Previews for all the stages this year. Each preview will be posted the evening before the stage and the one for Stage 1 will be most likely already be online Thursday evening or Friday morning. This Preview doesn’t talk about the sprinters in the race, but there will plenty of sprinter-talk in the preview for stage 1 and the remaining bunch sprint stages.

For live race coverage of Giro d’Italia 2013 go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 6 Preview

Stage 5 started out just like expected, many attacks and three Movistar riders in front. Team Sky were down to only Vasil Kiryienka in support of Richie Porte and Sergio Henao but apparently, that didn’t mean much. The strong Belarusian lead the peloton alone for 50 km and in the end Porte won in front of my pre-picked favorite Samuel Sanchez and Team Sky team mate Henao. On a stage where everybody needed to distance Richie Porte, the Tasmanian ended up distancing everybody else.

Friday’s Team Sky show leaves us with Richie Porte as the massive favorite for both the stage win and the overall victory. Porte has been outstanding against the clock this season and on a demanding course for the GC riders, I can’t really see anybody threatening him if he’s 100%.

A lot of riders dropped out of the race on stage 5, including strong time trialists like Tejay van Garderen, Rein Taaramae, Michael Rogers and Andreas Klöden. Only the toughest riders remain and even these will feel Friday’s stage in their legs, especially with another day of heavy rain.

The course is very hard with steep climbs and tricky descents. One wrong turn or one slippery piece of road is all it takes to ruin your GC dreams on this stage, but with the first five riders within 10 seconds, nobody can take it easy. It’s full gas from the start and whomever dares to take the most chances will end up winning Vuelta Pais Vasco overall. I don't think this course is good for Tony Martin and having already crashed once in this race, I think he will be a little bit more careful in the rain.

Samuel Sanchez showed to be back in the game on stage 5 and I’m sure he will give everything he has, and take all the chances he needs, in order to give Euskaltel their first win of the season. Sanchez hasn’t won anything since he won the final time trial of last year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and he will be eager to show he’s back.

Simon Spilak is normally very strong the rain and he also tried to get away, catching Richie Porte, on the final km on stage 5. Friday was Katusha owner Igor Makarov’s birthday and even though it didn’t end up with another win (Purito won on his birthday last year), I’m sure Makarov will settled for a spot on the final podium. Spilak should be able to take 10 seconds on both Henao and Quintana on this stage and if so, it’s up Richie Porte and Alberto Contador not let him take the overall win too.

I’ve been naming Beñat Intxausti a couple of times as my joker in this race, but his crash on stage 1 seems to have kept him from performing as expected. Still, I see him stronger and stronger every day and this time trial really suits him well. He has to dig deep in order to provide Nairo Quintana with valuable time splits and I honestly think Intxausti has a chance of winning this stage if Porte doesn’t destroy them all again.

Favorites: Richie Porte & Samuel Sanchez

Joker: Beñat Intxausti 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 5 Preview

Remember the epic stage in Tirreno-Adriatico won by Peter Sagan a month ago? Good, now it’s time for part two. This stage is very similar to the one in Tirreno, there aren’t any parts of 30%, but we get close to 20%. The 166,1 km include no less than 10 categorized climbs and the last one has its top just 5,8 km from the line. I’m talking about Alto de Olaberria - a climb the riders will get to enjoy three times - and even though it’s only 1,4 km, it will provide a selection with its average gradient of 12%.

There will be about 3300 meters of climbing for the riders and once again, the weather forecast shows rain all day long. Team Sky have only six riders in the race and it will be impossible for them to control it. I’m sure Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Ag2r, Katusha and Euskaltel will do everything they can to isolate Richie Porte and Sergio Henao as quickly as possible and we should be in for a great show.

The beginning of the stage invites for a break to be established, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the stage evolves like the one in Tirreno. All the GC riders want to be up front to avoid crashes on the wet descents and that will make for a furious pace. If a break should have any chance of making it, it needs to be very strong riders working together. Pre-favorites who are now out of the GC like Jakob Fuglsang, Igor Antón, Thibaut Pinot and those kind of guys. Igor Antón did something similar in the Vuelta two years ago, but I honestly doubt an early break will make it.

I think Movistar, having the strongest team in the race, will launch one attack after the other. Quintana, Intxausti, Herrada and Rui Costa are all within 1:46 min of Sergio Henao and especially Herrada and Quintana have been very strong lately. Beñat Intxausti came to the race hoping for podium spot and if he still wants to achieve this, he has to attack. Intxausti did very well on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and with everybody looking at Quintana; Intxausti may be able to sneak away. Movistar went to recon these stages last week, giving Quintana the knowledge to attack into the final corner on Arrate to win stage 4, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they take another stage win in Beasain.

Alto de Olaberria - 12% avg. 5,8 km to go from the top.

Euskaltel have, naturally, also been out doing some recon of these stages last week, and I’m sure Samuel Sanchez will be eager to take the first personal win in over a year and Euskaltel’s first win of the season. Sanchez too was very good on the similar stage in Tirreno-Adriatico and the short hills and tricky descents are perfect for him - especially in the rain, where other riders have problems.

Team Sky lost Tirreno-Adriatico overall on the similar stage and with only six riders in the race and every team against them, it could very well happen again. I would expect the peloton to be blown into pieces and naturally, Porte and Henao can’t respond to every attack. Nobody wants to get away with Richie Porte, knowing his time trial skills, and that could mean Henao ends up in a small front group with Porte left behind.

Damiano Cunego has been getting better and better day by day in Vuelta Pais Vasco and he seems ready for the Ardennes Classics soon. On paper, this is a stage that suits him perfectly with short steep hills and tricky descents. Like Samuel Sanchez, Cunego too is great on the downhill sections and if he stays up front, I’m sure he will try something in the final.

In Tirreno-Adritico, Sagan, Nibali and Purito were the three big favorites for the stage and they ended 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd. On this stage, there aren’t any big favorites but indeed a lot of solid candidates. It’s close to impossible to pick only one, so I’ll leave you with my list of candidates instead.

Favorites: Quintana, Sanchez.

Solid outsiders: Intxausti, Cunego, Betancur, Antón

Jokers: Fuglsang, Gilbert, Vicioso

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 3 Preview

After two "semi-flat" stages it's now time for the GC riders to show their ambitions. The last 40 km of the stage includes three categorized climbs and the finish on Alto de la Lejana kicks up with 21% the last 400 meters.

It's a stage for the explosive riders and without any bonus seconds on the line, the pure climbers without a strong time trial - like Igor Antón and Sergio Henao - need to distance their rivals. Euskaltel were out training on the climb a couple of days ago and Igor Antón has already stated he wants to do something great in this race. The finish on Arrate (Stage 4) doesn't really suit him, so if he wants a stage win, this is the stage to win.

Naturally it won't be easy with Alberto Contador and Team Sky in the race. Contador is looking very strong right now and I'm sure he will be eager to take another win in the Basque race. Team Sky have been outstanding so far this year and even though everybody is talking about Richie Porte, I think Sergio Henao will be the man for this stage. The steep gradients suit Henao a lot better than Porte and don't forget Henao took 3^rd place on the steep finish in last year's race.

Movistar's Nairo Quintana has been superb uphill the last month, but I don't think this short finish is good for him. Quintana likes it steep, yes, but not very short like this one. Also, Nairo Quintana wasn't planned to do the race as he were in France doing Tour de France recon with Alejandro Valverde just a few days before he was called up. I think Beñat Intxausti, despite his crash and time loss on stage 1, will be the team leader for Movistar.

For outsiders look to Wout Poels and Tom-Jelte Slagter. Both are very explosive and good on the steep gradients. Poels were great in Tirreno-Adriatico, considering his crash in Tour de France last year, and Slagter showed in Tour Down Under that he has what it takes to beat the elite on a short uphill finish.

It's difficult to pick a winner and I woud like to say both Antón, Henao and Contador, but if I have to pick one I'll have to say Contador. Still, don't be surprised if Euskaltel get their first win of the season on La Lejana.

Winner picks: Alberto Contador
Jokers: Wout Poels / Tom-Jelte Slagter

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta España - Preview & Favorites

If you know a little about cycling - and let’s be honest, the fact that you are reading this now means you’re not a rookie - you know there is one rider above everybody else for this Vuelta España. Alberto Contador is back and if you think he latest Grand Tour performance (Tour de France 2011) showed his real level, you’re very wrong.

Alberto Contador is THE favorite for this Vuelta and if he stays upright and avoid any bad luck it will be a surprise even bigger than Juanjo Cobo’s overall win last year, if he doesn’t wear the red leader’s jersey in Madrid.

Looking at the route one could argue that it favors explosive riders like Purito a bit more than Contador, but the fact is that any route suiting a climber suits Alberto Contador too. Team Saxo Bank desperately need a big victory and the way I see it anything but the overall win will be a big disappointment for the Danish team.  I could write several pages up and down about why Alberto Contador will win this race, but I really don’t see the point in it. Instead let’s take a look at some of the riders fighting for the last to spots on the final podium.

Forgetting Contador I count three riders with a solid chance of doing Top3 in this Vuelta. First one is Chris Froome. Despite an outstanding performance in the Tour de France the ex-Kenyan still feels ready to rock in Spain and remember that the Vuelta always has been Froome’s main goal this season. He showed in the Tour that last year’s Vuelta podium wasn’t a one-time-only achievement and with strong riders like Henao, Uran and &Porte to help in the mountains, Chris Froome will be the most dangerous rival to Alberto Contador. Froome himself calls this “the big chance of my life” and he says he still feels fresh despite going all-in in both the Tour and the Olympics.

The way I see it another podium spot for Froome should be a sure thing, but it requires he can keep his high level from the Tour and that won’t be easy in the last week and especially on Bola del Mundo. If Chris Froome is ready he most likely takes 2^nd place overall but if not, Team Sky could end up riding for Sergio Henao or Rigoberto Uran instead.

Not many riders - if any - can follow
Purito on a short, steep finish.

Next rider up is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. Purito showed in the Giro earlier this year that he has what it takes to win a Grand Tour and as I said, this route looks to be designed by Purito himself. A lot of steep uphill finishes, a short team time trial (where Katusha nowadays are among the favorites) and only one time trial that even includes a climb in the middle. This is Purito’s biggest chance ever to finally get on the Vuelta podium and hadn’t it been for Contador’s presence I would have tipped him to win it. 

To support him in the mountains, Purito once again has Dani Moreno as his right hand but also Denis Menchov has decided to chip in and help out when needed. Both Dani and Menchov could probably do Top5 overall had they been team leaders on other teams and together with Alberto Losada, who seems to be very strong right now, Katusha is surely one of the best teams in this race. I will be surprised if Purito won’t be on the final podium in Madrid.

Last rider I see with a real chance of the podium is Igor Antón. It’s an even year this time and that means that the Basque climber will be ready, or at least so it seems. In 2008 Antón was called up to be the biggest threat to Alberto Contador in the Vuelta but unfortunately Antón had to abandon after a crash early on the Queen Stage to Angliru. In 2009 Igor Antón barely showed anything, but in 2010 he was back – better than ever! Anyone following the Vuelta that year can agree that Igor Antón would have won the race hadn’t it been for a horrible crash with less than a week to go. Antón was leading the Vuelta and seemed to have a gear more than the others uphill, but once again his race was ruined by a crash.

Last year Antón decided to change his program and do the Giro before the Vuelta. He took a beautiful stage win on Zoncolan, but the hard race had drained him for the Vuelta where he couldn’t stay with best. This year Igor Antón hasn’t showed much so far and that is actually a good sign. According to himself he feels as good as back in 2010 and with his strong performance on the mountain stage in Vuelta a Burgos and in Classica San Sebastian earlier this week I think we will see Igor Antón as strong as ever in this Vuelta.

Some might argue that riders like Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Juanjo Cobo and Jurgen Van den Broeck should be named as well as riders with a chance of the podium, but I must admit that I can’t see it happen. Gesink and Mollema seems to be a strong duo and they definitely want revenge from the Tour, but both of them still need to show they can stay with the best in all three weeks. For what concerns Cobo and VdB I just simply don’t think they have anything to show in this race. Cobo took the cycling world by surprise last year but I strongly doubt he can do it again this time – and let me remind you that Cobo often fails when he changes teams.

Quintana makes climbing look easy.

Instead I think Movistar will do a lot better with guys like Beñat Intxausti and Nairo Quintana, not to mention Javier Moreno. Intxausti showed to strong in the Giro but had one bad day and lost his GC. If he can be steady this time he could very well end up being the best Movistar rider in the final classification. Nairo Quintana is another interesting rider. This young guy is a born climber and when he’s in shape he makes even the most difficult climbs look easy. I have Quintana down for winning the Giro or the Vuelta in two or three years and I wouldn’t be surprised if he already took a stage win this year and maybe the mountain jersey too.

There is no fun without a couple of jokers and of course I have a few for you as well this time. First up is Andrew Talansky. There is no doubt that this young American is a future Tour de France contender and given the leader role in the Vuelta I think (and hope) Talansky is ready to prove me right. In Volta ao Algarve, Tour de Romandie and latest in Tour de l'Ain he showed small glimpse of what he can do and even though he might had preferred another time trial in the race I think his strong climbing abilities will be enough to give him a spot in the final Top10.

Same goes for Eros Capecchi who has been one of my favorite “talents” for (too?) many years now. Capecchi was outstanding in his U-23 years but he still hasn’t had his big breakthrough on the professional scene. In Giro del Trentino this year he showed to be one of the strongest in the mountains, working for Szmyd and in Giro d’Italia he showed the world how strong he was as super domestique for Ivan Basso. The route suits Capecchi very well and being quite fast on the line as well, there are many stages where the Italian can try his luck for a stage win. Capecchi will be riding for Movistar next year and if he wants to get a chance of being team leader in Giro d’Italia he needs to show that he can perform over three weeks when he’s the designated leader. I hope Eros Capecchi will be able to make Top10, but Top15 might be a more realistic goal.

There are a lot of riders fighting for the places from 5^th to 20^th in the overall classification and to give you a better idea about how I see their chances I have decided to give you my own Pre-Top20 for this year’s Vuelta España right here. Enjoy and thanks for reading!

1. Contador

2. Froome

3. Purito 

4. Antón

5. Gesink

6. Henao

7. Tiralongo

8. Mollema

9. Talansky

10. Quintana

11. Machado

12. Intxausti

13. Uran

14. Capecchi

15. Dani

16. Cobo

17. Monfort

18. Kessiakoff

19. Cataldo

20. Cunego

Hope rising for Movistar

After the most tragic month in the history of the team, the hope and smiles now start to come back at Team Movistar. Juan Mauricio Soler's condition is getting better and better every day and green jersey aspirant José Joaquin Rojas has showed to be just as strong as we all wished for - Well, I know I did!

Rojas was the only one of the fast guys able to follow Thor Hushovd on stage1 and afterwards he followed up with strong performances on stage3 and 4. On top of that both Andrey Amador and Beñat Intxausti (read my pre-tour interview with Beñat here) seem to be recovering well from their injuries caused by the crashes on the first stage. Beñat Intxausti even managed to stick with the favorites on Mur de Bretagne! Hopefully he will be back at 100% for the mountains - keep an eye on him...

The next four stages all look good - on paper - for the new Spanish champion Rojillas, and I really, really, hope he can give Team Movistar that Tour-stage that would mean so much for everyone involved! Ánimo!

Entrevista: Beñat Intxausti (Movistar)

Beñat, lo primero mis condolencias por la pérdida de Xavi. ¿Cómo ha sido tu vuelta a  la competición después de todo lo sucedido?
Gracias. Pues no ha sido nada facil la vuelta a la competición. Fueron unas semanas muy duras, pero gracias a la ayuda que me han dado muchas personas he tirado para adelante.

En tu ultimo año hiciste un gran Criterium Internacional, Vuelta al Pais Vasco y Vuelta a Asturias con Euskaltel-Euskadi, pero tras firmar con Movistar tu Vuelta a España fue un tanto decepcionante. ¿Qué ocurrió? 
La verdad me salio muy mal. Fui con mucha ilusión y ambición, y desde los primeros dias empeze con muy malas sensaciones. El calor extremo que nos hizo me ahogo y ya no levanté cabeza.


Tres equipos diferentes en tus últimos tres años. Qué diferencias encuentras entre ellos y qué hace a Movistar el major de ellos? 
Cada equipo es un mundo con sus cosas, pero por trayectoria, nivel, historia y todo, Movistar Team es el mejor equipo sin duda.

En Dauphiné, no acabaste la última etapa, pero ¿estás preparado para el Tour? 
Sí, estoy preparado. A dauphine fui a ultima hora por todo el tema que me paso y es que además justo unos dias antes de irme cogí un virus que me dejo muy vacío el cuerpo. Dauphine cogí como un entrenamiento de calidad importante.

Sin un gran líder como Valverde, muchas de las expectativas están puestas en tí como uno de los líderes del equipo. ¿Cómo manejas esa presión? y ¿cuáles son tus objetivos para este Tour?
En ese sentido estoy tranquilo, estoy en un equipo que saben llevaste muy bien. Mis objetivos del Tour son acabar, hacer lo mejor posible y estar delante en las etapas de montaña.

¿Has inspeccionado alguna de las etapas del Tour?
No. Conozco algun puerto pero no he reconocido. Solamente la CRI de Grenoble, que es la misma que en Dauphiné.

Tú vienes de competir [en Dauphiné] con algunos de los favoritos para la general del Tour. ¿A quién has visto más fuerte?
Wiggins, Van den Broeck, Evans y Vinokourov.

Beuno, por ultimo, tres preguntas rápidas:

Estará Beñat Intxausti en el top-15 del Tour?
Ojalá!
Ganará Beñat Intxausti una etapa en el Tour?
Lo intentare.
Y cuántas etapas ganará Movistar en el Tour?
3 etapas.