Giro d'Italia: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

It’s uncertain what the following two big mountain stages will look like so the GC riders need to take as much time as possible in this uphill time trial.

Many talk about this stage as a ‘mountain time trial’ but that isn’t really accurate. It’s uphill yes, but it’s nothing like the mountains time trials we have seen in the past on Plan de Corones or Alpe d’Huez. The first 1.5 km are flat and then the climb starts with 6.6% average for the following 7.5 km. From here on it’s almost flat for 5 km with a little descent and a short ascent and this is where time trial specialists will be able to gain a lot of time on the tiny climbers.

The final 6.4 km are uphill with an average gradient of about 7% and parts of 10% with 5 km to go. It’s important to have something left in the tank for this final part of the stage and this late in the race, I’m sure we will see some surprising results.

The big favorite for the stage win is Vincenzo Nibali. He has been the best rider in the mountains so far and generally the strongest rider in the race. He did great in the first long time trial when he took 4^th place and without Wiggins, Nibali is the man to beat. Cadel Evans is another one of the contenders for the stage win but he if he couldn’t beat Nibali in a long ‘flat’ time trial, I don’t see him beating Nibali uphill either. Both Evans and Nibali have been out training on the course earlier this year and both agree that it’s going to be a high pace start of the climb. The riders with big engines who are good on the uphill parts will be able to do great in this time trial and I think Team Blanco will do well.

The Dutch team have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and they really want that stage win that will save their Giro d’Italia. Robert Gesink was close the other day and so was Wilco Kelderman the day before that. Both Gesink and Kelderman are strong against the clock - especially with so many uphill kilometers - and together with Stef Clement, who took 5^th place in the first time trial, they have three very strong contenders for the stage win.

My personal outsider for the win is Dario Cataldo. He started out great with the win in the team time trial but then he got sick. It took many days for Cataldo to get better but now he finally seems to be back at this best. He’s been good in the mountains the last couple of days helping out Uran and Henao but he’s also been able to save himself for this stage. Cataldo is the Italian Time Trial Champion and he will be eager to show off that jersey in the Giro. Winning may be too much to ask of Cataldo after his sickness but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a great stage and made Top3. The favorites have been testing each other the last couple of days in horrible weather conditions and anyone who has been able to save some energy will have an advantage on this stage.

For other outsiders look to Ramunas Navardauskas and Tanel Kangert. Both are in the shape of their life and good against the clock. The same goes for Giovanni Visconti. He has already won two stage in this Giro d’Italia but that doesn’t mean he’s done winning. Visconti has never been better than right now and with his newfound strong mentality, he should have what it takes to win time trial soon. The last days’ impressive efforts will not favor him but he should be in for another good performance.

Favorite: Vincenzo Nibali

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Dario Cataldo / Stef Clement / Ramunas Navardauskas

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 18:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 11 Preview & Favorites

Last year’s winner, Ryder Hesjedal, didn’t live up the promising riding we saw in the first week and he’s now out of the GC, losing more than 20 minutes on Stage 10. Bradley Wiggins is still in the mix but yet again, the Tour de France winner couldn’t follow the best uphill. Gesink lost about a minute, which was expected but so did Scarponi and that was a little surprise.

Before the Giro started, Cadel Evans said that he still aims at winning the Tour de France this year, and therefore I didn’t count him in as a serious contender for the GC. I still doubt that any rider can dig deep in the last week of this race and still have a chance of winning the Tour a few months later, and if Cadel stays up front the rest of the race, I’m sure he will end up assisting TJ again in the Tour.

Anyway, let’s take a look at Stage 11. It’s another day in the mountains, but the climbs aren’t nearly as steep as on Stage 10. Despite a short uphill section in the beginning, the first 70 km are downhill. From here on the riders slowly start on the category 2 climb, Sella Ciampigotto. With an average gradient of just 4.4%, this climb may not sound difficult but it does take the riders up in 1700 meters above level and the ascent is almost 30 km. Astana will most likely set a comfortable pace in the peloton but if a team like Vini-Fantini manage to miss the big break again, they might go to the front and crank up the speed in order to minimize the gap.

The final climb to Vajont
Click for larger view!

There are still 55 km to the beginning of the final climb from the top of Sella Ciampigotto and luckily, the weather forecast shows dry roads on the 20 km descent. The stage ends in Vajont and the final 7 km are uphill. It’s another category 2 climb and the average gradient is just 5.2%. Still the climb does kick up with 7% the last 1.5 km before the final 400 meters are downhill toward the line.

The big break wasn’t strong enough to make in on Stage 10 but since the climbs aren’t as steep this time, I suspect a break will make it. Again, Astana will be happy to let the 20 bonus seconds go to a rider down the GC and I doubt BMC have the team to chase back a break in order for Evans to win the stage. That being said, if it does come down to the favorites, Evans seems to be the best pick right now. Either him or Carlos Betancur. The strong Colombian has taken 2^nd place two days in row now and he definitely has the kick to drop the rest on the steeper part towards the top of the final climb.

Team Colombia missed the break on Stage 10 and I think they will be eager to take revenge on Stage 11. Chalapud and Pantano had a quiet day in the peloton and both should be ready to attack from a far again. Chalapud is chasing the KOM jersey and I expect both him and Pirazzi to make the morning break and take points on Sella Ciampigotto. Vini Fantini have lost a couple of stages in this race already and I think they will do whatever they can do get into the morning break. Di Luca, Rabottini & Garzelli are all out of the GC and especially Garzelli seems to be getting into shape now. He tried to get into the morning break the other day and even though he hasn’t showed much yet, I’m sure we will see him in the second part of the race.

Another good breakaway contender for this stage is Pieter Weening. He is the now out of the GC and favorites can let him get away without worrying. Weening is solid on the climbs, he even turned out to be among the best in Pais Vasco, and he’s strong on the descents as well. These kind of gradients are good for Weening and with the last 400 meters slightly downhill, he seems to be a good joker for this stage. The same goes for his teammate Christian Meier.

Favorite: Carlos Betancur

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Pieter Weening & Stefano Garzelli

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 11:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

First of all, I’m glad to see my joker for Stage 6, Edwin Avila, not letting me down and taking 11^th place in the sprint. Impressive by the young Colombian!

Now let’s look at Stage 7. This stage has ’breakaway’ written all over it. The profiles looks like bread knife and this leg breaking stage will tire out many riders before the demanding time trial on Saturday. Bradley Wiggins will probably hope for a quiet stage but for guys like Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal, this is a good opportunity to gain a little time before the expected massacre against the clock.

Looking at the stage, the first two names I thought of was Giovanni Visconti and Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez. Visconti is an expert in these kind of stages and Rubiano knows these roads very well. Troffeo Matteotti starts and ends in Pescara and Rubiano has taking podium twice within the last three years. The Colombian climber spent most of Stage 6 as the very last man in the peloton, where he got some TV-time for amazing bike skills avoiding the big crash with 30 km to go. Visconti also found his way to the TV-cameras at that crash, but unfortunately for sitting on the ground with a sore hip. The former Italian Champion went to hospital after the stage and even though nothing is broken, he may find it too difficult to perform at this best level. That being said, if Giovanni Visconti is ready after his crash, he's one of the biggest favorites for this stage.

There are four KOM sprint within the last 50 km and it will be huge surprise if Stefano Pirazzi doesn’t try something on this stage. He’s in great shape right now, he’s targeting the KOM jersey and he’s not afraid of attacking at any point.

The steep parts of 20% around Chieti are known from Tirreno-Adriatico and Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali always do well here. There are still 35 km to go from the top of the last hills in Chieti, but the final two categorized climbs are very steep too - 18% and 14% - and if Hesjedal, Nibali and others want to gain time on Wiggins, this is where they have to attack.

I think the following list of riders will be good candidates for a morning breakaway. Especially Matteo Rabottini will be eager to show himself in his hometown Pescara. The time shows how many minutes they are after Luca Paolini in the GC:

Rabottini	08:56
Locatelli	09:09
Rubiano	09:19
Dupont	09:39
Pantano	10:26
Salerno	11:35
Marcato	14:15
Rodriguez	17:15
Georges	25:49
Pozzato	28:10
Gatto	32:56
Lastras	37:14
Taborre	37:39

Katusha will be eager to keep the Pink Jersey one more day and it’s not impossible that the morning break will get caught on the finals climbs - even though I doubt it if it includes strong riders. Should it end with a fight between the GC riders anyway,  look out for Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio. I said in my Overall Preview that Cadel Evans would take a stage in this year’s Giro, and this could very well be that stage.

Also, look pay attention to Danilo Di Luca. The self-proclaimed “Killer” seems to be in good shape already and if it all comes back together, he’s definitely one the peloton can’t let get too much of a gap. Vini-Fantini have a team full of good riders for these kind of stages and they should be represented with strong riders in the front of the race at all time during this stage.

Thursday, I talked with team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio about this stage and here are his thoughts:

“This year, the Giro d’Itlaia is different. Usually, the peloton lets the breaks get away and fight for the win, but with everybody wanting to gain seconds, it’s not happening this year. Anyway, we - like many others -want to attack on this stage. It’s a very difficult stage and we know it won’t be easy to get the stage win. There are many teams without a GC leader and they will all try to take a stage win. Our plan is to protect Pellizotti & Rosa and keep them in the front of the peloton and to attack with riders like Rubiano, Rodriguez and Felline.”

Favorite: Cadel Evans
Top3: Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez / Stefano Pirazzi / Danilo Di Luca 

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 7:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Criterium International: Preview and Favorites

If Paris-Nice is a mini Tour de France, this race is a mini-mini Tour de France. We have a sprint stage, a time trial and an uphill finish, and it’s all within two days.

The first stage is a same one as last year - hopefully without all the crashes in the final - but the following time trial is a little bit different. It has more turns, it’s 500 meters longer and final km is the same one as on stage 1. The time differences won’t be big and even though you lose 10 seconds here, you still have a chance of getting it back on Sunday’s big mountain stage. Especially because there are 10 bonus seconds to the winner on Col de l’Ospedale.

Last year, the final stage had a tough beginning with four climbs within the first 80 km, followed by a long flat section before the final climb. This year, it’s the other way around. The first 50 km are “flat” - it’s always up and down on Corsica - and then we have five categorized climbs on the menu before Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%).

Team Sky bring a very strong team to the race and there is no doubt about who the big favorite is. Chris Froome missed out on the overall win in Tirreno-Adriatico and without Alberto Contador (who is out due a flu), Froome now has the perfect opportunity to take revenge. Criterium International will also be Chris Froome’s first race after his engagement to Michelle Cound, and what better way of celebrating than an win? 

To help him achieve this, Froome can count on support from Paris-Nice winner Richie Porte and in-form Vasil Kiryienka and Kanstantin Siutsou. Youngester Joshua Edmondson (7^th on the mountain stage in Volta Algarve) is also here to help Froome. I think that Team Sky will start their mountain train on stage 3 and - as usually - simply wait for the other riders to drop out the back one by one. The steepest part of Col de l’Ospedale is with 2 km to go and this would be a perfect place for Chris Froome to put in a strong attack and take time on his rivals. Pretty much like Richie Porte did in Paris-Nice.

The final stage of Criterium International ending on Col de l’Ospedale (14,1 km / 6,2%). 

Looking at the other contenders for the general classification, BMC have two riders with a good chance of a podium spot; Tejay van Garderen and last year’s winner Cadel Evans. TJ was strong in Paris-Nice (ended 4^th overall) and has set Criterium International as his next target. Cadel Evans wasn’t really on top of his game in Tirreno-Adriatico but he showed in Tour of Oman that he is already very strong. BMC will probably try to get a good overall result with both TJ and Evans, but I think Evans is their best shot. Also, whoever ends up in a supporting role here, will have some goodwill for the Tour de France, when BMC have to pick a designated leader.

Update: Cadel Evans has now told letour.fr that TJ is the team leader for BMC in this race. Therefore, expect TJ to take podium instead of Evans. 

Like TJ, also Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud did very well in Paris-Nice (ending 2^nd and 3^rd overall), and with a time trial and a mountain stage, both should be up there again in Criterium International. Especially Talansky will be eager to take revenge after a poor tactical decision on La Montagne de Lure cost him the chance of winning overall.

My personal outsider is Rein Taaramae. He was originally set to peak in Paris-Nice, but got sick in February and decided to work for Dani Navarro instead. Now Taaramae is showing promising shape and after his 3^rd place in Cholet - Pays De Loire last Sunday, he’s now ready to take on Froome and the other favorites in Criterium International. Taaramae is strong against the clock and Col de l’Ospedale should suit him just fine too. He has Jerome Coppel to help him and I would be very surprised not see Taaramae in the overall top10 when the race is over.

Winner pick: Chris Froome
Podium pick: Cadel Evans Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Rein Taaramae

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 4 Preview

Peter Sagan won stage 3 as predicted and just like the last time Sagan won in Tirreno, the following stage will end on Prati di Tivo. Last year Peter Sagan’s teammate Vincenzo Nibali soloed away on the final kilometers, but I seriously doubt Nibali will be able to repeat that victory this year.

As I mentioned in my overall preview for Tirreno-Adriatico, this is the strongest field in many years and compared to last year, most of the favorites have at least two or three strong riders to help on the climbs. Last year only Roman Kreuziger had a teammate in the final. That rider was Paolo Tiralongo who this year is helping Nibali, while Kreuziger himself is at Alberto Contador’s service. Confused? Let’s take a look at the favorites and their teams for the stage.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff

Leader: Alberto Contador

Support: Jesus Hernandez, Roman Kreuziger & Michael Rogers

Astana

Leader: Vincenzo Nibali

Support: Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic & Fredrik Kessiakoff

Katusha

Leader: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Support: Dani Moreno

Team Sky

Leader: Chris Froome

Support: Dario Cataldo, Rigoberto Uran & Sergio Henao

Cadel Evans is the only one of the five big favorites without a strong to help in the uphill sections and as you can see Team Sky are very strong. Last season they perfected how to ride the final climbs in stages races and we just saw how they took control in Paris-Nice. Prati di Tivo doesn’t have any steep, steep sections and that is just how Team Sky like it. Froome can put his team to work from the bottom of the climb and I doubt anybody will manage to get away until the last few kilometers. Astana too have a strong team but I think Brajkovic and Kessiakoff will drop before Uran and Henao.

Looking at the favorites, Purito is the only one set to top very soon; in the Ardennes Classics. Nibali is aiming at the Giro while Contador, Froome and Evans all are set for the Tour. Purito was in the leading group on Prati di Tivo last year, but since he wasn’t supposed to peak until the Giro, he lacked a bit in the end. This year it’s different. Purito started out Tirreno-Adriatico with this mind set on winning overall. He showed in Tour of Oman that he is in excellent shape already and knowing he has to take back the time he lost in TTT, he will be eager to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line. The bonus seconds are also the reason why I don’t think a break will make it. This race will probably be determined within a few seconds and naturally all the favorites want to win this stage. The way I see, Purito is the strongest of them right now. I’m sure Contador will put in a series of furious attacks but I doubt he will be able to drop Purito and Froome for good.

My outsider this time is Bauke Mollema. Blanco have a strong team in this race and Mollema can count on support from in-shape Tom-Jelte Slagter. In the final of stage 3, when Alberto Contador was in front of the peloton Bauke Mollema was right behind him and if the other favorites don’t manage to drop Mollema on Prati di Tivo, his fast finish could even give him the stage win.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Bauke Mollema 

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini

Tour Preview - Stage 10

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At first this may look like a typical breakaway stage half way through the Tour de France, but after Monday’s time trial a lot of riders now need to attack Team Sky if they want to get on the podium. That means that even though a strong break might get away, it’s not very unlikely that Evans, Nibali, Van den Broeck etc. will try something on Col du Grand Colombier (Category HC, 17,4 km with 7,1%). Well, let’s hope they will!

Favorites:

Anyway. Let’s say a break makes it to the line, who would be in it? It’s not really a stage for the polka dot jersey hunters like Chris Anker Sørensen and David Moncoutie. Well you can get 20 points on Grand Colombier, but not a lot on other climbs, so it’s definitely much more clever to save some energy and give a real go on stages like tomorrow with three times as many points on the menu. Another thing against David Moncoutie is that with Remy De Gregorio out of the race, Moncoutie is now the only Cofidis rider able to stay with Rein Taaramae in the mountains. This could end his dreams for the jersey the way I see it.

Col du Grand Colombier - Top with 40 km to go.

Instead I think guys like Luis León Sanchez, Thomas Voeckler and Sandy Casar will be the main riders to watch in order to catch the right break on Stage 10. All three are some of the very best at getting in the breaks and finish it off with stage win and all three have been showing to very promising signs the last couple of days, including their time trial on Monday.

Another guy this finish is almost tailor made for is Alejandro Valverde. Tons of bad luck has sent him out of the GC fight for good and therefore he can now focus on getting a stage win. He is 10,46 minutes after Bradley Wiggins in the overall classification and even though nobody will allow him to get away with 5 minutes or so he still have very good chances the way I see it. Valverde should be strong enough to stay with the favorites on the climbs and if it comes back together he will also be the fastest on the line - no doubt about that. He could also put a team mate in the early break and then try to attack in the middle of the stage. Team Sky won’t waste any unnecessary energy on pulling back a rider 10 minutes down and with help from a team mate Alejandro Valverde could make a big number on this stage. Valverde knows he has nothing left to do in the GC so he will be almost desperate to get away with a least a stage win from this Tour.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Thomas Voeckler

Tour de France 2012 - The Favorites

The 99th edition of the Tour de France starts out Saturday in Liege with a 6,4 km prologue. A perfect start for the overall favorite, Bradley Wiggins. No one can argue that Wiggins is among the top favorites for the yellow jersey in Paris, probably even the biggest favorite of them all. With just over 100 km of time trialing it’s set to be a fight between the best against the clock and so far this year Bradley Wiggins has shown to be the best.

The question to ask is:

“Can Wiggins minimize the time loss to the other favorites in the few mountain stages and win it back in the time trials?” - My answer is Yes.

After he crashed on stage 7 and withdrew last year, everything has been put on to win the Tour this time. Team Sky know they will be strongest team and thereby have everybody else looking at them to control the race. To cope with the big task they have been preparing the riders and trying to control and race for yellow in every stage race so far this year. In Algarve they won with Richie Porte after a tremendous work from the whole team (including Bradley Wiggins working hard in front to set up Porte’s attack - now he can count on Porte to do the same for him in the Tour), in Paris-Nice they controlled the race from the very first day and won with Bradley Wiggins. Same thing happened in Tour de Romandie and latest in Criterium du Dauphine where Team Sky murdered all competition with four riders in Top10 – three of these in the Top4!

So despite never been defending the yellow jersey in the Tour before, Team Sky sure have experience in controlling a stage race and winning the overall classification. Another important thing to remember is that in all of the stages races Bradley Wiggins has taking part this year he has shown to be one of the strongest riders in the uphill section too. It’s true that he build his wins on the time trials, but it’s not like they can just drop him like that when the road goes uphill. In this Tour de France there are only three stages with a mountain top finish and with guys like Rogers, Porte and Froome (all capable of doing Top10 themselves) to set the pace, the pure climbers really have to come up with a something special in order to ruin Bradley Wiggins’ yellow dreams.

The way I see it only a few riders will be able to threaten Bradley Wiggins in the overall classification. Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov. Evans finally won his first Tour last year thanks to his strong time trial skills (he was actually only seven seconds from beating Tony Martin in the final time trial!) and with a course like this year’s, Cadel Evans will never get a better chance of taking another overall victory. Last year he won Tirreno-Adriatico and Tour de Romandie before he ended second in Criterium du Dauphine (see the similarities to Wiggins’ winning pattern this season?) but this year Evans has been struggling to find the right pace. In Tirreno he ended 32th overall and in Romandie 29^th. It wasn’t until Dauphine we saw what Cadel Evans is capable of this year when he took 3^rd place after the Sky duo Wiggins and Rogers. Evans says that he feels ready but looking results I have my doubts. Hopefully he will be able to put in a good fight but he really needs to bring his A-game to the time trials to keep up with Wiggins.

Same goes for Denis Menchov. The Tour de France is the sole purpose of Menchov’s 2012-season and therefore everything has been set up around the Tour. Menchov signed with Katusha before this season only to focus on winning the Tour (the last of the three GTs he hasn’t won yet) and while his results - or lack of - haven’t been anywhere nearly as good as his main competitors’ you must not count out the Silent Russian Assassin. Denis Menchov knows how to build up towards the Grand Tours and he rarely shows himself before it really counts. Also being representing his home country in the colors of Katusha sure will boost Menchov’s morale quite a bit:

“The Tour is my first big stage race with the team of my country, so I´ll give my best in order to win. It´s a great responsibility that gives me high motivations. It's the only Grand Tour I haven't won and it's no secret that this year it has been my main goal”.

Another thing to favor Denis Menchov is his strong time trial skills. As shown numerous times before Menchov is capable of clocking in a great time in the long time trials in the big stage races. Just take a look at these recent results.

Giro d’Italia 2009 - Menchov wins overall and wins the 60,6 km time trial.

Tour de France 2010 - Menchov ends 3^rd overall and take 11^th place on the final 52 km time trial after the wind changed. He beat the rest of the GC-favorites (including Contador) with more than 2 minutes that day.

Vuelta España 2010 - Menchov takes second place on the final 46 km time trial. Beating Cancellara and Gustav Erik Larsson with 20 and 40 seconds.

Vuelta España 2011 – Menchov ends 5^th overall and ends 11^th on the 47 km time trial, despite a crash a the earlier stages. He lost around 1 min to Bradley Wiggins that day.

If Denis Menchov arrive to the Tour in his top condition and he stays out of trouble the first week he could very  well end up winning the whole thing as I see him a bit stronger in the mountains than Bradley Wiggins.

Wiggins, Evans & Menchov. These riders are the only ones I have put down as actual “winner candidates” for the Tour. For what concerns the “podium candidates” my paper shows the following names:

Jurgen Van den Broeck

Due to the many kilometers against the clock this year, Jurgen Van den Broeck has been training hard to improve his time trial skills and so far it looks like it has been working. He has never been really bad at it, but when the distance got over 40 km the time gap to the best was around 2½ minutes. Too much if you want to win the Tour. This year the gap to his main competitors has been minimized though- significantly!

In Volta ao Algarve he only lost 28 seconds to Bradley Wiggins on a 25,8 km course and in Criterium du Dauphine the gap was just around 2 mins on the long 53 km time trial. Beating specialists like Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lieuwe Westra and Richie Porte. Actually Jurgen Van den Broeck was only 29 seconds slower than Cadel Evans on that course. Last year Van den Broeck was one of the best riders in the mountains, never afraid of attacking. This year he has been focusing 100% on the Tour but still he showed in Vuelta al Pais Vasco and latest in Dauphine that he has no problems following the best uphill. I see him as a solid Top5 rider with a chance of ending on the podium if it goes his way.

Vincenzo Nibali

Nibali has already won the Vuelta España and ended on the podium in the Giro d’Italia twice (3^rd helping team mate Ivan Basso to win it and 2^nd last year after Contador’s suspension) – of course he is a contender for the Tour de France podium as well. So far this year his best result (in a stage race) is winning Tirreno-Adriatico where he attack on the hard mountain stage to Prati di Tivo and won solo. He decided to skip the Giro d’Italia (even with a good chance of winning the race) to put all his focus on the Tour de France and because of that, he is a guy to take serious. Not many Italians give away the chance of winning the Giro in order to reach for podium in the Tour.  Still, to pull it off he needs to clock in a better time against Wiggins, Evans and Menchov than he normally does in the time trials and then keep on attacking when the terrains allow it. A couple of the mountain stages end with a downhill section to the finish line and this is where Vincenzo Nibali needs to set in his attack to gain time.

Samuel Sanchez

Same goes for Samuel Sanchez. His time trial skills are without a doubt much better than Nibali’s (and Van den Broeck for that matter) and if one of the big favorites shows not to be ready, Samuel Sanchez has a good chance of making a big result for himself in this Tour. Last year he ended 5^th in the general classification and won the polka dot jersey. This year the only jersey he is concerned about is the yellow one and he will do everything he can to get on the final podium in Paris. In 2010 he ended 3^rd overall but only a year after when Contador got suspended. This time he wants to be take the step up to the podium as well. The reason for why I haven’t put Samuel Sanchez down as an overall winner candidate is because of his crash in Criterium du Dauphine. Sanchez crashed hard on the first stage and even just a few days before the Tour he still feels the pain.

Robert Gesink

Last one on my paper with a solid chance of fighting for the podium is Robert Gesink. Being the only “pure climber” among the favorites so far, you may think Gesink will blow away on the 100 km against the clock. But that’s not the reality. Gesink is actually pretty good in the time trials. Last year he showed it mostly on the short courses, but this year he has taken his skills to the next level. In Tour of California he got 5^th on the 30 km time trial and despite starting out not so good in Tour de Suisse he once again clocked in 5^th best time on the 34,3 km time trial. Beating guys like Andreas Klöden and Levi Leipheimer. Robert Gesink still needs to show he can stay within 2 minutes of the best in the 50+ km time trials but if he manages to do so in the Tour he can be a dangerous outsider for the jersey.

As I said Gesink is pure climber. He may not look like one with his 190 centimeters but don’t get fooled by that. As 22 years old he took 6^th place on Alto de Angliru (one of the steepest and most difficult climbs in the world) and ended 7^th overall in the Vuelta España. The next year he crashed in the first week of the Tour and had to abandon. He took revenge in the Vuelta being in the top5 on all the mountain stages and once again ending 6^th overall. In 2010 he finally got to show his skill in the Tour, where a third place on the stage to Morzine-Avoriaz and 6^th place on the Tourmalet among other good results in the mountains secured him a Top5 place overall. Last year Robert Gesink once again got in troubles in the first week but still managed to finish the Tour. This year he is ready to take his revenge and show the world that he can compete with the best when it counts.

The next row on my paper is called “Top5-10” and it includes riders like: Alejandro Valverde, Janez Brajkovic, Bauke Mollema, Levi Leipheimer, Chris Horner and Andreas Klöden while my “Top10 aspirants” shows the names of; Peter Velits, Rein Taaramae, Jerome Coppel, Lieuwe Westra, Tom Danielson among others.

To end this preview of the favorites I will take my chances and name the winners of the different jerseys for the Tour de France as well as how the Top10 will look like in Paris.

1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Cadel Evans
3. Denis Menchov
4. Jurgen Van den Broeck
5. Robert Gesink
6. Samuel Sanchez
7. Vincenzo Nibali
8. Janez Brajkovic
9. Alejandro Valverde
10. Levi Leipheimer

Yellow: Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)

Green: Peter Sagan (Liquigas)

Polka Dot: Johnny Hoogerland (Vacansoleil-DCM)

White: Rein Taaramae (Cofidis)

Favorites for Tirreno-Adriatico

The other big stage race in March, Tirreno-Adriatico, is ready for us now and we have a great fight between a handful or strong riders to look forward to.

Let’s get straight to it...


Vincenzo Nibali
My own personal favorite for the race. Nibali has been good all year long and showed his strong climbing legs in Tour of Oman when he won on Green Mountain. In Strade Bianche last weekend he was among the best riders as well and with a strong team to back him I think he has very good chances of finally winning Tirreno-Adriatico. Liquigas always perform well in the team time trials and with a real mountain stage on the menu this year (final climb of 15 km on stage5) and a short time trial to end the race, I can’t see anyone better than Vincenzo Nibali right now.

Roman Kreuziger
Kreuziger has only a few race days in the legs so far, but one of his big goals of the season is Tirreno-Adriatico. In Strade Bianche Kreuziger was very strong making the final group and working hard for Iglinskiy, so it seems like he is ready. Kreuziger is very good in the short time trials as well as in the mountains and the short, steep finishes with his powerful sprint. Astana may not have the best team for the team time trial on day 1, but they shouldn’t lose that much either. Kreuziger isn’t afraid of attacking when needed and I think he is a solid pick for the podium.

Peter Velits
Another solid podium pick is Peter Velits. Just like Kreuziger, Velits has red circled Tirreno on the calendar and with his overall win in Tour of Oman and great time trial abilities (strong team as well) he should be mentioned as one of favorites to win Tirreno-Adriatico. The steep finishes like the ones in Chieti and Offida suit Velits well and if he can hang on to the best riders on the final climb on stage5, he has a very good chance of overall success.

Cadel Evans
It would be a mistake not to mention Cadel Evans. He won the race last year, without having done much before, and is more or less in the same situation this year. I must admit I have my doubts though. BMC hasn’t been great so far this year, with all their big riders now knowing they don’t have to top too early. Last year Cadel Evans really needed an overall stage race win, but know he knows what he is capable of. He will be motivated, no doubt, and he has a great team to support him, but I’m not sure he is as strong as Vincenzo Nibali on the climbs just yet.

Michele Scarponi
With only one race day in 2012, Michele Scarponi is a big question mark on my paper for Tirreno-Adriatico. In good shape he could end up winning it, but to be honest I have my doubt with Lampre captain. Last year he took third place overall, 15 seconds behind Cadel Evans, but last year he had already shown great shape in Giro di Sardegna. The course is actually pretty good for Scarponi but like Evans I doubt he is good enough shape to win overall already. He can take a stage, sure, but for the long run I see Nibali and Velits as better contenders.

So who won?

One of the biggest chances after today's CAS verdict, stripping Jan Ullrich of all his results from May 2005 to February 2007, is that Francisco Mancebo now takes third place in the Tour de France 2005. That made me take a look at the overall classification for 2005 and I must admit the view is shocking.

How many names on this list can you pick out who haven't (officially) been linked to doping abuse? I think the first rider in the Top10 will be Cadel Evans followed by well...who? I fear that one day we will look at the Top10 from the Tour de France 2010 with the same eyes. I don't think it will happen, but I must admit I feel the fear lurking somewhere in my mind...

Take a look here:

What do you think? Feel free to comment below...

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 20

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Thomas Löfkvist : Fabian Cancellara

Mauro Gianetti : Fabian Cancellara

David Etxebarria : Cadel Evans

Laura Meseguer : Cadel Evans

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Bookmaker's favorite : Fabian Cancellara

Interview - Claudio Chiappucci

To spice it up and get a fresh view on this year's Tour de France, here comes an interview the former Italian super climber Claudio Chiappucci who won the polka-dot jersey in both 1991 and 1992 and finish on the final podium in Paris in '91, '92 & '93.

Claudio, we are now half way through the Tour. Who has surprised you the most. Both positively and negatively?

Gilbert is sparking, he’s been like that since the beginning of the season! Very positive, Cunego as well. The others are more or less as we expected them to be. The two Schleck brothers are equally strong but Contador hasn’t lost the Tour yet.

Do you think he [Contador] is still capable of winning the Tour being 3-4 mins down already?

I think he can recover, but he has to find a way to attack his rivals. The problem is that there aren't that many occasions left to do so. I think Voeckler can keep the yellow jersey for one more week, he has a very good team.

Cadel Evans has turned out to be strongest of the favorites in the first half of the race. Do you think he can keep up like that?

Well, I think he has improved a lot. He is strong and he has been at the front of the peloton all the time. He is good on the climbs and in the time trials and I think he deserves to be on the podium based on his performances so far. 

Basso won the Giro last year, Nibali the Vuelta and now both Cunego and Basso are up there with the best in the mountains. How high do you see the chances for an Italian rider on the final podium in Paris?

I think Basso could end up on the podium, but he won’t win the Tour. Both  Evans and Contador have a strong time trial where they can take time on Basso, and then we have the Schleck brothers who can attack him from left and right in the mountains. It won’t be easy.

On Luz Ardiden the biggest surprise – except for Contador losing time – was probably Damiano Cunego staying with favorites. What do you think he can this year?

Cunego is not a top rider for the three week stage races anymore. On Luz Ardiden he did well but it will be hard for him to get close to the podium. Especially because of the time trial. He should target a stage win instead.

Leopard-Trek showed amazing team-strength on Thurday’s stage to Luz Ardiden, but in the end only Fränk Schleck gained a few seconds on the other favorites. What do you think about their tactic? 

They made a great effort and got the group down to only the best ones, but I think they need to pick a team leader. They need to sacrifice one for the other, Fränk never said he was the ‘gregario’.

What about ‘your’ jersey, the polka-dot, who do you think will take it this year?

Samuel Sanchez can win it, I would go for him. Among the others I don’t see a true climber. No one is attacking anymore. You have to attack in order to win this jersey. Maybe the riders nowadays have different targets and don’t want to risk everything on the jersey. It’s a shame…

Last one. It seems like the Italian people (sponsors and tifosi) are waiting for a new fall of champions to fall in love with. Like with you guys in the Giro and the Tour. You arrived after a crisis in Italian cycling and managed to give a great Renaissance. How do you see the future of the Italian cycling right now?

It was different time. When I was a rider I was attacking because I wanted to see what the others were capable of doing, I wanted to give them a chance to defend themselves. Indurain was very strong and attacking him wasn’t easy, but I felt that I had to try every time. You don’t see that nowadays. It’s not easy for the Italians either. The globalization brings new sponsors into the ProTour and Italy doesn’t play that big a role anymore. We only have two ProTour teams and I think it’s going to be difficult for Italy to get new big teams with Italian sponsors. It will be interesting to see what a guy like Daniel Oss and future youngsters can bring to the table. I just hope they won’t crack under the big pressure and expectations. 

Interview by Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

The Experts' Tour Picks - Stage 12

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Thomas Löfkvist : Alberto Contador

Mauro Gianetti : Cadel Evans

David Etxebarria : Fränk Schleck

Laura Meseguer : Alberto Contador

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Bookmaker's favorite : Alberto Contador

Eagerness to perform sends home the favorites

What do Bradley Wiggins, Janez Brajkovic, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Chris Horner, Alexander Vinokourov and for this matter Christophe Kern have in common? For starters they all were listed as big GC hopes for the Tour de France but what’s more important; they all came to the Tour more ready and eager to perform than ever before!

After last year’s catastrophically Tour-performance Bradley Wiggins seemed to be fitter than ever and very determinate to show all his critics that his 4^th place in 2009 wasn’t a coincidence. His overall victory in Dauphiné proved he was back on track and must have boosted his moral sky high. The whole team was build around him and he couldn’t wait to show what he was capable of – unfortunately we never got to see it...

Like Bradley Wiggins, Jurgen Van den Broeck was flying in Dauphiné taking an incredible win on the first mountain stage and 4^th overall. It looked so easy for Van den Broeck every time it started to go uphill and suddenly only the a spot on the final podium in Paris seemed to be acceptable for the Omega-Lotto leader and his followers. Like Wiggins he was eager to show what he could do in the big mountains and like Wiggins he ended up leaving the Tour after a crash.

Other riders matching this profile are Team Radioshacks duo-leaders Janez Brajkovic and Chris Horner. Brajkovic build his whole 2011 season around the Tour. Nothing else mattered. His impressive win in Dauphiné last year, where he hold off Alberto Contador making it look like a walk in the park, made Bruynell and co. talk about a final top5 for the young Slovenian, if not the podium. Again a massive pressure being put on the rider and again he crashes out. Same goes for Chris Horner. Doing top10 last year, looking out for Lance Armstrong and the rest of the team, Horner was eager to show his own qualities. The very same qualities that made him win Tour of California with his closet rival being team mate Levi Leipheimer – almost 3 minutes ahead of Tom Danielson as third. Horner said before the Tour that he would make “Top5 for sure – if not more!” – well I am sure he would have been up there, but like the others he ended up in a ambulance.

You probably see where I’m going with all this, but let us just take a few more examples. Alexander Vinokourov. Last Tour de France in his life. Ready to do whatever it takes – on the bike – to fulfill his life-long dream and get at least one day in yellow. On stage 8 it looks like it’s about to happen, but the strong head wind knocks Vinokourov out on the last couple of hundred meters. The very next time – and probably the last change to get yellow – Vinokourov ends up in the forest on a slippery downhill section. Was it because the Garmin riders were riding too fast or was it because Vinokourov was too eager to stay in front and try to get the jersey?

Last example for now is Christophe Kern. The big sensation in Dauphiné. Before a heavy time trialist, but after losing 11 kg in the winter season, suddenly a strong climber and gunning for the GC in the Tour. Kern won a stage in Dauphiné and was, if not the strongest, definitely one of the strongest in the race. Those performances made Christophe Kern rethink his Tour de France ambitions and went from “helping out team mate Charteau in the mountains” to “stage win, polka dot jersey and hopefully a good GC”. Like all the others mentioned here, Kern crashed and abandoned the Tour.

So is all this just bad luck? Could it have happened to anyone? Well, it probably could have. But it didn’t. It didn’t happen to Cadel Evans who nearly nobody counted in for the final podium. It didn’t happen to Ivan Basso who’s Tour-ambitions got knocked down a bit after his crash in May on Etna. It didn’t happen to Frank Schleck, a rider who normally crash as much as Cavendish wisn and it didn’t happen to Tony Martin, another rider who many seemed to forget while picking out favorites. I did in fact happen to Alberto Contador – the biggest favorite of them all – but is he out of the Tour? No Sir, he is not.

This little write-together could have been even longer if I got started on Robert Gesink (finally being the team leader in the Tour, going stronger than ever), Levi Leipheimer (winning Tour de Suisse and finally seemed back to former strength) and Andreas Klöden (Winning Paris-Vasco & 2^nd in Paris-Nice) but even though they too are in a lot of pain cause of their crashes, they are still in race, fighting to prove me wrong…

The Experts' Tour Picks - Final GC

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Thomas Löfkvist :
1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Cadel Evans

Mauro Gianetti : 
1. Alberto Contador
2. Cadel Evans
3. Andy Schleck

David Etxebarria :

1. Andy Schleck
2. Alberto Contador
3. Ivan Basso

Laura Meseguer : 
1. Alberto Contador

2. Andy Schleck

3. Ivan Basso