For the
first time in 10 years, the Giro starts with a regular stage. Last time that
happened Alessandro Petacchi won and took the first Maglia Rosa and everything
but another bunch sprint will be a big surprise.
The
sprinters won’t have many chances in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this one is
certainly one they don’t want to miss out on.
The stage is only 130 km long and
it’s split up into two difference loops. The first one includes the category 4
climb Posillipo on Via Francesco Petrarca and is covered four times within the
first 55 km. There is a KOM sprint placed on the top of Possillipo the 2nd
and 3rd time the riders cross the top so expect fireworks right from
the beginning of the stage. The smaller
teams and those without GC riders or sprinters will be eager get in the break
and take the KOM jersey on the first day of the Giro.
After
looping on the Posillipo Hill four times the riders head back to Napoli and
start on eight laps in the city. The last 6 km are tricky with many bends and
corners but the last 2 km seem pretty straight forward. Argos-Shimano,
GreenEdge, Cannondale and Quickstep will all try to hit the front the last few kilometers
and with everybody having fresh legs - and thinking of Maglia Rosa - it sure will
be hectic.
Usually Mark Cavendish doesn’t win on the first day of a stage race, but being
Cavendish he still is the big favorite. He didn’t get Alessandro Petacchi as
leadout for the Giro and that means it’s up to Trentin and Steegsmans to
deliver Cavendish on the right wheel - not leading him out, delivering him. Note
the difference! Cavendish decided to go to Tour de Romandie, a stage race
without any mass sprint finishes, in order to get ready for the Giro and I
wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a stage to get 100%. That being said, I
wouldn’t bet against him either.
The way I
see it, there are three sprinters on the same level just behind Cavendish. Matt
Goss, John Degenkolb og Nacer Bouhanni. Goss and Degenkolb probably have the
two strongest leadout teams in the race since and I think it will be a fight between
GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano to take the front on the last kilometer. Seeded in
the third group on my paper we’ll find Roberto Ferrari, Elia Viviani,
Sacha Modolo and Giacomo Nizzolo. My personal favorite in this group is Nizzolo.
He’s getting better and better every year and it won’t be long before he’s
beating the big favorites in the mass sprints. Nizzolo doesn’t need a leadout
train and while everybody is looking at Cavendish, Goss and Degekolb, I wouldn’t
be surprised if Nizzolo made top3 in Napoli.
Also, look
out for Francesco Chicchi. He didn’t impress much in Tour of Turkey last week
but he is an expert in these short criterium stages. You normally never see Chicchi
until the final 50 meters, but he has a strong kick and high top speed. If
anyone can make an upset and snatch Maglia Rosa from the favorites it’s
Chicchi!
Get live
race updates and more predictions by following me on Twitter @mrconde.
Favorite: Mark
Cavendish
Top3 pick: Giacomo
Nizzolo
Joker: Francesco
Chicchi
I promised
you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with
GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage
1:
For live coverage of the stage check out
steephill.tv
