From heaven to hell for Kreuziger?

Roman Kreuziger from his time with Liquigas.

About four weeks ago Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank finally made the signing of Roman Kreuziger official and last Friday Kreuziger got married in Italy. Kreuziger missed out in the Giro d’Italia this year due to a couple of off days in the mountains and after being benched for the Vuelta by Astana (knowing he wouldn’t stay with the team) he has already been looking forward to joining Alberto Contador next year for quite some time.

When signing Kreuziger, Bjarne Riis said that: “Roman is a rider that I actually wanted to have on the team some years back. So that we have now been able to seal deal is something I'm extremely happy about”.  

According to the recent USADA dossier though, Bjarne Riis should be happy he didn’t sign Kreuziger in the past. In his witness statement, Leonardo Bertagnolli claims that most of the Liquigas team (that he was a part of in 2007) was using the doping doctor Michele Ferrari. Bertagnolli names Roman Kreuziger by name in his statement plus Enrico Gasparatto who also attended Roman Kreuziger’s wedding last week.

Along with Leonardo Bertagnolli former Discovery Channel rider, Volodymyr Bileka also claims to have seen Roman Kreuziger - among other riders - in his past dealings with Michele Ferrari around 2006-2007.

In 2008 Team Liquigas put in, as the first team ever to do so, a clause in the riders contract stating that they were no longer allowed to use trainers or doctors outside of the team. If so they would be suspended immediately. “There has only been one exception since 2008 and this was granted to Ivan Basso, who is followed by Aldo Sassi and by the Mapei Center”, the team write in a press release sent out last night.

It’s important to state that up until Leonardo Bertagnolli’s and Velodymyr Bileka’s statements to the Italian law enforcement, Roman Kreuziger has never been linked to any doping abuse.

Roman Kreuziger has yet to make an official comment on the statements from Bertagnolli and Bileka. It’s really a shame his honey moon should start like this.

On a side note, Alberto Contador earlier said that he recommended Bjarne Riis to sign the Czech star rider.

Tour Preview - Stage 13

---

This is a stage for the sprinters. It surprises me that ASO decided to give this day to the fast guys and didn’t throw in a couple of climbs so the French riders could attack and hope for a stage win on Bastille Day - or La Fête Nationale as they call it in France. Any attacks seem doomed on this stage, but I won’t go as far as saying we will get a regular mass sprint. Because the race organizers have been a tricky after all.

Favorites:

25 km from the line the riders have to climb Mont Saint-Clair. You may not think much of this climb, being just a category 3, but trust me it’s nasty! It’s just under two kilometers long but the average percentage is 10,2% with parts up to 20% - not exactly in favor of the heavy sprinters like Haedo, Van Hummel, Hutarovich etc.

The beginning of Mont Saint-Clair. 1,6 km - 10,2 %

If the Mont Saint-Clair wasn’t tricky enough the final kilometer certainly is! With only a few hundred meters to go the peloton bends right in 180° corner just before hitting the final stretch to the line. Andre Greipel will have a hard time getting his whole Lotto-Belisol leadout train over the steep Mont Saint-Clair and it will also be difficult for them to deliver him perfectly in the end. That 180° corner means that you need to slow down a little and Greipel likes it best when he can be delivered in high speed.

Instead the finish suits Peter Sagan a lot more since he is good at accelerating from low speed plus he won’t lose any positions in the tricky bend. Sagan is also one of the sprinter that shouldn’t be in trouble on Mont Saint-Clair. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if Liquigas decide to put pressure on the peloton to see if they drop some of the sprinters before the finish.

If you are looking for a joker, look to Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank and Danish Michael Mørkøv. This year Mørkøv has shown that he really knows how to get in the right break and you can be sure that he will try again tomorrow. Saturday it’s exactly five years ago since his father died and Michael Mørkøv has said that he wants to honor him by winning in Le Cap d'Agde. I doubt Mørkøv will be able to pull it off, but I’m sure he will manage to show himself up the roads before the finish.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Michael Mørkøv

Tour Preview - Stage 12

---

It’s going to be hard to follow up on the last days predictions, but I’ll give a try. The way I see it this is a typical breakaway stage. The two category 1 climbs in the beginning of the stage Col du Grand Cucheron and Col du Granier are both very steep (especially Granier) and that should give us a strong breakaway group to fight it out for win in Annonay Davézieux. From the top op Col du Granier there are 120 km to go so possibility of it all coming back together for a sprint in a selective group is also there - no doubts about that.

Favorites:
There is one guy you just can’t rule out in this Tour de France: Peter Sagan! Sagan has already won three stages in his Tour-debut and he has shown that he can stay with Nibali on climbs as well. On Stage 11 he was next to Nibali all the way up over Col de Madeleine and he even had enough energy to attack on the descent. If Peter Sagan manages to get into the break tomorrow he will be nearly impossible to beat. Also if Sagan is in the peloton group and the break hasn’t already got a solid lead, it’s not unlikely that Liquigas and other teams will try to bring it back together. The last kilometers are uphill with about 4% and if you can point at better rider right now for that kind of finish I’ll be impressed!

Last 5 km of the stage - perfect
for riders like Sagan & Gerrans.

Riders like Sandy Casar, Sylvain Chavanel and Simon Gerrans are also excellent picks for Stage 12 as well. Casar tried his luck the other day but couldn’t keep up with Voeckler on the climbs. This time the climbs are early on the stage which means that Sandy Casar should be able to get back in the front if he loses a little ground again. Sylvain Chavanel has been trying like a maniac to get in the early breaks the last couple of days but so far without any success in the end. Chavanel wants a stage win very badly and I think this might be his best chance in the Tour to get it.

The same goes for Simon Gerrans. The Australian Champion was with Casar and Voeckler the other day but didn’t have the legs to finish it. On Stage 11 he took it easy and “cruised” through the day in order to be ready for this stage. The uphill finish suits Simon Gerrans perfectly and if I should point on any of these three guys I think it would be him. Then again, all three riders could do it. If you are looking for a super joker, look to Vacansoleil-DCM's Marco Marcato.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Joker: Simon Gerrans

Tour Preview - Stage 3

---

We are already at day four in the Tour de France and just like Stage 1 this one has Peter Sagan written all over it! The last 35 km shows no less than five categorized climbs. Short one between 1 and 1½ km but all around 6-9% average. It looks like a real Ardennes classic and with the last 700 meters kicking up with 7,4% it’s tailor made for the puncheurs!

Favorites:

Not only is the last 700 meters towards the finishing line favoring Peter Sagan because it’s uphill but also because the last 150 meters are very tricky! After 500-600 meters uphill the road turns left just to turn right the very next moment in a roundabout before crossing the line. Sagan has shown numerous times how exceptional his bike handling skills are and the finish could be a little bit like the one in Tour de Suisse where he managed to overcome Ben Swift on the final meters despite a tricky double corner section just before the line.

Last year people seemed sure that Philippe Gilbert would win on Mûr-de-Bretagne after his outstanding victory on the first stage, but Gilbert couldn’t repeat it. Some might think that it will be the same with Sagan, but that’s not the case. While Gilbert is a one-day-race specialist, Peter Sagan knows how to win day after day in a stage race. In Tour of California he won five stages out of eight and in Tour de Suisse he won four out of nine. Sagan has already pointed out Stage 3 as a good chance for him to take his second stage win in the Tour and if Liquigas can managed to keep it together he will be very difficult to beat. Very difficult!

Last 700 meters of the stage kicks up with 7,4 % average. 

Alejandro Valverde did an outstanding job on Stage 1 when he managed to get back to the peloton after nearly crashing just a few kilometers before the final climb. Needless to say he started the climb in the back of the pack, but he still managed to get near the front and if it hasn’t been for Gesink sprinting close to the barrier in the final, Valverde could very well have taking 4^th place behind the leading trio. I doubt Alejandro Valverde will win Tuesday’s stage but I’m sure he will be in the mix - probably top3.


Fabian Cancellara said that he would try to attack again if he saw an opening, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went away just over the top of the last cat3 climb. The downhill section is very tricky and despite what the profile shows it's actually downhill almost all the way towards the final 700 meters. 

If you are looking for a joker, look to Robert Kiserlovski. The Astana rider is always rock solid and good on these kind of hills. His main job is to make sure Janez Brajkovic stays near the front, but if he sees his chance he won’t hesitate to take it. Team mate Alexander Vinokourov is also a man for this type of finishes and he is ready again he could be a serious outsider in Boulogne-Sur-Mer.

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 4

Joker: Robert Kiserlovski

Fränk Schleck to follow Contador and Nibali?

Can Fränk Schleck do what
Contador & Nibali have done?

With the big Danish podium hope for the Giro d’Italia, Jakob Fulgsang, having to stay home, RadioShack-Trek now needs a new captain for the Italian Grand Tour.

According to La Gazzetta dello Sport that captain will be no other than Fränk Schleck.

The rumors have been there already since last year, but with Jakob Fuglsang as the team leader, Fränk Schleck didn’t really need to be in the Giro as well. Now he does though and it will be interesting to see if Schleck can do what Contador and Nibali have done before him.

In 2008 Alberto Contador had no intentions of riding the Giro d’Italia, but thanks to a late invitation from the Giro organization, Contador went from playing beach volley on his vacation in Cadiz to win the Giro d’Italia within a few weeks.

Vincenzo Nibali working for
Ivan Basso in the Giro 2010.

I 2010 Vincenzo Nibali almost did the same. Originally Nibali wasn’t featured in the Liquigas squad for the Giro, but after Franco Pellizotti got sidelined accused of doping abuse, Nibali got called up just one week prior to the start of race. Team mate Ivan Basso won the Giro d’Italia that year, but not without outstanding help from Vincenzo Nibali who managed to take 3rd place in the overall classification. Like Alberto Contador, Nibali had no idea he would be riding the Giro until a week before the start.

Now it seems like Fränk Schleck will have the change to do the same. Jakob Fuglsang was determined to change the series of bad luck for Radioshack-Trek but instead he ended up being a part of it. Looking at his results in the Ardennes Classics, Fränk Schleck has had a very similar start of the year to what Nibali had in 2010, so don’t be surprised if the Luxembourg rider storms to glory in the Giro d’Italia – starting in one week.

UPDATE: Radioshack-Trek has now officially named Fränk Schleck as team leader for the Giro d'Italia.

Liege-Bastogne-Liege Favorites

It’s time for the last Spring Classic of the season and just like last year, there is one guy everybody talks about; Philippe Gilbert.

In 2011 it was because of his outstanding shape and three wins in a row, while it this time is because he now finally seems to be back among the favorites again.

Last year he won Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone before he took his career’s first Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory. This year Gilbert ended 12th in Brabantse Pijl, 6th in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in Fleche Wallone. As Gilbert points out you can’t really divide 3 with 2 in the same way as mentioned above -that would be a 1,5 place. Not the win, but very close. Actually a pretty solid guess for how Liege-Bastogne-Liege will be for Gilbert tomorrow.

I have no doubts that he will be among the best riders, but does he and the BMC team really have what it takes to control the race, follow the attacks and then beat everyone in the final? Gilbert is the favorite, yes – but I think a certain Italian rider could end up surprising quite a few.

Vincenzo Nibali
I have picked out Nibali as favorite a couple of times already this season (Tour of Oman, Milano-San Remo and Tirreno-Adriatico) and every time he has ended in the top3 (2nd in Oman, 3rd in MSR and 1st in Tirreno), so don’t be surprised if it continues in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Nibali attacking.

Last winter Vincenzo Nibai said he wanted to focus more on the Ardennes Classics again and after a pretty anonymous Amstel Gold Race (104th) he showed good legs in Fleche Wallone last Wednesday (8th). I’m sure Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the one of the three Ardennes races most suitable for Nibali and “The Shark” himself also sounds very optimistic about his chances.

A few days ago the Liquigas riders were out training on the course and on Cote de Saint-Nicolas, a great tactical place to attack in the final, Vincenzo Nibali opened up for all engines and rode full speed to test the legs. I won’t be surprised if he does that again tomorrow when it really counts. It would also make sense to try an attack on the descent of La Roche-aux-Faucons. Leaving the rest of the favorites looking at each other. Nibali shouldn’t have any problems staying with the favorites and if he gets away in the final he will be very difficult to catch again!

Interview - Ivan Basso

Ivan Basso got caught up in the crash on stage 1 with two km to go but managed not to lose any time (except for the three seconds to Cadel Evans) to the other favorites thanks to the 3 km mark rule. Here is what he had to say about this ambitions for the Tour this year. Enjoy...

Ivan, thanks for taking time. How did your Tour-preparation come along after your crash on Etna? Are you on the right track?
The crash of Etna took me precious time, but, luckly I had one month to recover. I run Dauphine as training, then I had some mountain training at Passo San Pellegrino. I ended it with a really good feeling and sensation. Of course I had no opportunity to check my shape in a race, but I’m sure to have done everything to be at the top level. The best Ivan Basso you’ll see on the mountain.

Compared to your condition winning the Giro last year, how good are you right now?
As said, before the Giro I had a confrontation in race, this time I don't have that. But my technical info and feeling say that I have the same good shape. I’ll need some stages to find race rhythm but on Pyrenees and Alps I want to be at the top level.

You won the white jersey back in 2002. You have ended 3rd and 2nd in Paris and last year you showed your strength by winning the Giro again. With your experience and results, will you consider anything but a spot on final podium to be disappointing?
Of course, after taking 2nd and 3rd, I need only the 1st to complete. I face this Tour aiming for the best results and I want to end it and be sure I have been spent 100% of my forces. I know that I’m ready, I know that I can compete with the bests. The route will be the judge.

The last many times you have been the leader in a Grand Tour, you have had great riders like Carlos Sastre, Roman Kreuziger and Vincenzo Nibali to help you in the mountains. This time your Tour-team seems a little bit weaker than normally, do you agree?
No, I don't agree. It’s true that we don’t have a co-captain but the team is suited for this route. Together with me I’ll have strong distance riders able to maintain good rhytm in flat stages and medium mountain, then in hard mountain I have a team mate like Szmyd. An added value will be the motivation: sometimes you can find more energies in mind that in legs. You’ll see during the team time trial how strong is Liquigas-Cannondale.

Speaking of Nibali. He was one of Contador’s biggest rivals in the Giro this year. Have you been talking with him before the Tour about how to beat Contador?
We usually phone each other during the season and we did that as well before the Tour. But there’s no secret or suggests to beat Contador. I know that I need 3 days in the Alps similar to the performance of last year on Zoncolan to beat him on mountain.

It’s a given that Contador and Andy Schleck are the two biggest rivals for the yellow jersey, but who else do you think will be up there to fight for the podium this year?
Well, Alberto and Andy are one step above the others, but I see a huge group of pretenders in really good shape for this Tour. Evans, Gesink, Van den Broeck, Wiggings, Sanchez… it will be a closed and strong competition!

Last question. If you had to pick, what you would take; a stage win in the mountains or a spot on the final podium?
Well, I would like to be on the final podium thanks to a stage victory in the Alps: can I choose this option? (smiling)