Giro d'Italia: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

On paper this should be a sprint stage but don’t be surprised if a breakaway makes it all the way to the line. It’s the longest stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia - 254 km - and in this moment the weather forecast shows another rainy day in the saddle.

Mark Cavendish got his win number 100 on Stage 12 and even though the morale now is sky high at Quickstep, Cavendish can relax a little bit. The first 190 km of this stage is more or less flat but the last 65 are up and down all the way to the line. The category three climb, Tre Cuni, starts with about 50 km to go and despite an average gradient of just 4%, it does stretch over 10 km and that will make it hard for the pure sprinters to stay up front. There are 37 km to go from the top of Tre Cuni and after a 15 km descent, the road kicks up again with a short uncategorized climb with gradients of 4-5%. From here on the riders head down a fast descent towards the final uphill section of the day.

The climb to Narzole is uncategorized too and even though it’s only 3 km long, it does have a couple of steep hair pin turns towards the top. There are only 6 km to go from the top and the road is very narrow through the old city in the beginning. The last 4 km are straight out without a single turn and they start slightly downhill. This means a fast sprint if the peloton is still together and it will also makes it difficult for a single rider to stay away despite getting a little gap over the top.

GreenEdge and Matt Goss had this stage red-circled in the race book before the Giro started but Goss is on antibiotics now and another wet day surely won’t be in his favor. Quickstep will probably try to keep it together but this isn’t really a good finish for Cavendish. Instead, riders like Francisco Ventoso and Enrico Battaglin should be named among the favorites. Ventoso hasn’t had much luck so far in the race and he must be eager to finally show off his Spanish Champion jersey up front. Battaglin has been very strong so far - wining Stage 4 and taking 2^nd place on Stage 7 - and unless Bardiani have a rider in the break, I think they will try to give Battaglin an excellent opportunity for another stage win in a reduced group.

The way I see it, a breakaway has a good chance of making it today. Especially if the sprinters are not sure about the climbs and since the GC contenders want to save as much energy as possible for the two big mountain stages in the weekend. It’s close to impossible to pick out a favorite for a stage like this one but there sure are many jokers!

Androni have been in almost every single break of the Giro so far and I would be surprised not see them represented in a break on this stage too. Riders like Miguel Rubiano and Diego Rosa look strong right now and both are good uphill and semi-fast on the line. Another rider this stage is good for is José Herrada. The Spaniard is getting better and better as the race progresses and I’m sure he will make it into a winning break before this race is over. This stage reminds me of the stage to Falzes last year, where a break - with Herrada in it - made it all the way to the line. Teammate Eros Capecchi is also one of the contenders for this stage. He’s fast, good uphill and he seems to be very strong right now after he suffered from allergies in the beginning of the race. Other good picks for a break are Oscar Gatto and Lars Bak. Gatto is very fast and strong on these kind of climbs,while Lars Bak is a breakaway specialist. The Dane has this stage marked and he's eager to repeat his stage win from last year. The downhill part towards the line serves as a great place for Bak to set in his final attack.

Should it come down to another bunch sprint, I think Enrico Battaglin is best suited for the climbs and therefore he is my favorite. Also, the stage ends near the headquarters of Bardiani and CSF I'm sure the team will do everything they can in order to get the win.

Favorite: Enrico Battaglin

Top3 Pick: Francisco Ventoso

Jokers: José Herrada / Lars Bak

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 13:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

For the third day in a row, we have an undulating stage ahead of us. It’s another stage of more than 200 km and like the previous two, the first long stretch is flat before two climbs near the finish. The first one, Montescaglioso is only a category 4 climb but its 4.5 km with an average gradient of 5,6% - and parts of 10% - will thin out the peloton before the final.

In 2003, Marco Pantani attacked on Montescaglioso but despite a strong effort from the Italian legend, which made most of the sprinters lose ground, it all ended up in a bunch sprint. The profile of this stage looks a lot like the one the Giro organizers used 10 years ago and don’t be surprised if it ends in another sprint despite the hilly finish.

The final climb isn’t very steep and strong sprinters with a bit of climbing legs like Degenkolb, Ventoso and Goss should put their teams in front and try to drop some of the pure sprinters. The climb ends with 4.8 km to go and from here on it’s straight out with a bit of descending before the last kilometer kicks up with 2.8% all the way to the line. GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano both saved energy on Stage 4 for this stage and this could very well end up with a fight between Goss and Degenkolb.

This is also a great finish for riders like Pozzato, Felline, Gatto and Battaglin. Originally, I had Enrico Battaglin down for a “joker” spot on this stage but after his impressive win on Stage 4, I doubt he can be considered a joker anymore. These kind of climbs aren’t too tough for the young Italian and everybody saw how fast he is on the line Tuesday afternoon. Teammate Sacha Modolo might fancy this stage too and together with Battaglin, Bardiani really have a very strong duo for Stage 5.

The way I see it, the final climb isn’t hard enough for the favorites to test each other and with only a few sprint stages this year, the sprinters’ teams should be able to keep it together. Quickstep will probably try to take the lead in order to keep a pace Mark Cavendish is comfortable with, but Stage 6 seems like a better option for the Manxman. That being said, of course Cavendish will do everything he can in order to take another stage win as soon as possible. McEwen crossed the line first back in 2003 and if Cavendish can get back to the peloton after Montescaglioso, he’s the man to beat.

It’s not easy picking a favorite for a stage like this one. A break getting away on the final 10 km could easily make it to the line, but if teams like Movistar and Bardiani don’t have anyone in the break, it will probably end like in 2003. Still, the chances of Movistar being in the break are not bad. Giovanni Visconti is gunning for the Pink Jersey and even though he’s 52 seconds down, a 20 seconds time bonus for winning would bring him close if he gets away from the peloton.

Lampre haven’t had much luck so far in this Giro d’Italia. Roberto Ferrari was caught behind the crash on Stage 1, they had problems staying together in the TTT and then Michele Scarponi crashed on Stage 3. Their luck could change on this stage if Filippo Pozzato has a good day. Pozzato showed great shape in Tour of Turkey and after a disappointing Spring Season, he now has a chance to take revenge.

Favorite: John Degenkolb

Top3 Pick: Francesco Ventoso

Jokers: Filippo Pozzato & Giovanni Visconti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 5:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv