TDU Preview - Stage 6

Tom-Jelte Slagter did like expected on Willunga Hill and seems now sure to take the overall win. Also joker Rafa Valls put in a strong fight for the stage win, but on Australia Day Simon Gerrans showed he still had a bit of kangaroo left in the legs. Impressive rise indeed.

Now it’s time for the final stage. It’s the typical circuit in Adelaide (20 x 4,5 km) and I would expect the winner from last year - and 2008 - to make a hattrick. Andre Greipel has been on a level or two above everybody else in this race and to have Greg Henderson to lead out should almost give him the win pre-race. Greg Henderson has been leading out the winner the last three years in a row, even taking second place twice, and if Lotto-Belisol were to make it 1 and 2 again this time, I can’t imagine anyone would be surprised.

The circuit in Adelaide. 20 x 4,5 km.

It’s a high speed finish and very often the riders end the way they are placed behind the winning train on the final 500 meters. Meaning that whoever gets Andre Greipel’s wheel in the end will most likely be able to stay on it all the way to the line. Of course there is the chance of Argos-Shimano timing their train right, but against this Lotto-Belisol machine I doubt it will happen in Australia this year.

I’ve already mentioned Jonathan Cantwell among the jokers earlier and he showed his potential with a third place in the last bunch sprint. Another guy I pointed out in the first preview was Andrew Fenn.

The youngster from Quickstep came out of Tour Down Under in super shape last year, winning Trofeo Palma de Mallorca & Trofeo Migjorn but this year he was aiming at showing his talent a few weeks earlier. He came close on stage 4 and showed last year that the short fast stages suit him very well. I think it will be difficult for Fenn to take the win, but a podium spot is definitely within reach.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Andrew Fenn

TDU Preview - Stage 4

My joker for the overall win, Tom-Jelte Slagter, put in an amazing finish in Stirling when he opened up early and kept Matt Goss and Phillipe Gilbert behind him. On the final meters Slagter didn’t go full gas in order to celebrate which probably cost him an extra second in the overall classification. Let’s hope he won’t lose the race because of that.

Stage 4 is a typical sprint stage. Some of the sprinters - like Kittel and Guardini - haven't even seen a bunch sprint so far in the race, so for those guys it will be an important stage in order to get some valuable WT points for their teams.

The big favorite is of course Andre Greipel. The extra added laps in Stirling proved to be too much for the German, but on fast flat finish he’s the man to beat. Lotto-Belisol will be eager to set up their impressive leadout-train once again and unless Argos-Shimano finally get it right and take the lead, nobody should be able to pass Greipel before the line.

The way I see it only two guys have the kick to make an upset on this stage. Arnaud Démare - joker for the first stage taking 2^nd place - and Andrea Guardini. With his impressive finish on stage 1 I guess I can’t justify picking Démare as a ‘joker’ again, seeing how  he’s now one of the best pick for a top3 spot on the stage, so instead I’ll go with Guardini.

Nicknamed “Flash” because of his fast finish on the final meters, Guardini is yet to show his talent on the World Tour. Last year he won 10 races for Farnese-Vini, including the fastest stage in the Giro where he took Cavendish by surprise, and with only one climb on the menu - and that’s done with 100 km to go - Andre Guardini should be in the mix for sprint. Normally Guardini doesn’t need a leadout, but it sure doesn’t hurt to have in-form Simone Ponzi to keep him in front. As said, I think it will be very difficult to beat Andre Greipel, but if Lotto-Belisol don’t time it right, Guardini won’t hesitate to take his chance.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Andrea Guardini

Tour Preview - Stage 20

---

Champagne time! Or at least until the riders enter the centre of Paris. From here on it’s hardcore racing for the win on Champs-Élysées and most likely it will end up in a mass sprint.

Favorites:

Showing on Stage18 that he is still kicking and ready for the Olympics, Mark Cavendish will be the man to beat in order to win Sunday afternoon. For the first time in this Tour de France, Cavendish will have a whole team able to work for him and personally I’m looking forward to see the yellow jersey working for the World Champion…

Especially the fact that Team Sky now finally will be able to give Cavendish his leadout train will be an interesting factor since it will be the first they will be competing against Lotto-Belisol in order to deliver their sprinter in the perfect position. In the beginning of the race, Andre Greipel got everything like he wanted and finished it off perfectly with one stage win after the other, but I doubt it will be that easy for him on Champs-Élysées.

One of my own jokers for the stage is Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s Juan José Haedo. Haedo is a real power sprinter and not many in this sport can match his top speed on the final meters. If Haedo manages to get on the right wheel in the final I think he can do some damage and even though I doubt he can win the stage I think top3 is within his reach.

If you are looking for a super-super joker, try Luisle Sanchez or Alexander Vinokourov. Sanchez was once again (!) denied a stage win due to Team Sky’s superiority in the final time trial and he seems to be going very strong in the end of this Tour. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to attack on the final laps on Champs-Élysées and why not together with Alexander Vinkourov, who desperately tries to put his mark on his final Tour de France. Vino already knows what it takes to cheat the sprinters and win in Paris and I’m sure he will try to repeat that this time.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Juan José Haedo

Jokers: Luisle Sanchez and Alexander Vinokourov

Tour Preview - Stage 18

---

If you can’t sprint with the best and can’t time trial either, this is your last chance to get something out of this Tour de France. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will have the manpower to keep it all together and therefore I’m pointing at breakaway to make it once again.

Favorites:

As this being the last chance for most of the riders, it’s almost impossible to predict who will end up winning the stage. Still, of course, there are some riders better at hitting the breaks than others. One of these is Michael Mørkøv. The Danish Tour de France debutant managed to get in the right break on the three first stages in a row(!) and has been extremely active in Tour so far. Mørkøv wants to get on the final podium in Paris as the most aggressive rider in the Tour and even though he already has good chance of winning that prize, Thomas Voeckler certaintly candidates for it too. The French rider has already won two stages and seems sure to win the polka dot jersey as well. If Michael Mørkøv wants to be crowned as the most aggressive rider in his debut Tour, he needs to attack again if he manages to get in the right break then his fast finish could be enough to give him that stage win he has been chasing since day one.

If it does come to a mass sprint, and I really doubt it will, it will be a fight between Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel. There is a cat4 climb, Côte de Lissac-sur-Couze (1,9km – 5,7%), with its top only 10 km from the line and that should mean some of the remaining sprinters won’t be there to give it a go in the final. The last climb is also an excellent opportunity for a rider to attack from a breakaway and if a rider like Michael Albasini or Arthur Vichot is up there this could be the place they will go solo.

Winner pick: Michael Mørkøv

Joker: Michael Albasini 

Tour Preview - Stage 15

---

This looks like a stage for the sprinters, but could also very easy end up with yet another breakaway staying clear of the bunch.It’s an undulating route going up and down all day long with no time to recover and being only 158,5 km I think the break will have a good chance.

Especially because GreenEdge now won’t be pulling like maniacs again since Peter Sagan now seems sure to win the green jersey. Team Sky won’t waste any energy on bringing it back together and that leaves us with Lotto-Belisol. If the break is to be caught it will be Lotto-Belisol - and them only - trying to bring back together. It would be much easier just to put a guy like Lars Bak in the break from the beginning...

Favorites:

Let’s say a break will make it (I think the chance 50/50 with a little advantage to the break) who will be in it? Almost every single team wants to put a rider up the road but of course some are better than others. One of my personal favorites to get in the break is Argos-Shimano’s Koen de Kort. Without Marcel Kittel and Tom Veelers the team doesn’t have any super fast riders for the sprints so their only chance of getting a stage win is from a breakaway. Koen de Kort has been trying many times the last couple of days and Stage 15 is actually the stage suiting him the best. If he manage to put himself in the final break Koen de Kort will also be able to take advantage of his fast finish and that gives him a pretty solid chance of winning in Pau if he arrives in the front group.

Another rider knowing how to hit the right breakaways is Luis Angel Maté. Normally Maté would have been in four or five breaks already but this is his first Tour de France and I could imagine he needed a little time to get used to it. In the beginning he also had Rein Taaramae to look after but with Taaramae out of the GC and David Moncoutié out of the race, Luis Angel Maté now has a chance to show himself off on the big scene. Look out for “El Lince Andaluz”!

If Lotto-Belisol manage to make this stage end in a mass sprint after all the natural pick would be Andre Greipel. He has already won three stages in this Tour and with Peter Sagan (probably?) being a little tired after Stage 14 and Mark Cavendish working in front of the peloton, I can’t really see who should beat him.

Winner, breakaway: Koen de Kort or Luis Angel Maté

Winner, mass sprint: Andre Greipel

Tour Preview - Stage 13

---

This is a stage for the sprinters. It surprises me that ASO decided to give this day to the fast guys and didn’t throw in a couple of climbs so the French riders could attack and hope for a stage win on Bastille Day - or La Fête Nationale as they call it in France. Any attacks seem doomed on this stage, but I won’t go as far as saying we will get a regular mass sprint. Because the race organizers have been a tricky after all.

Favorites:

25 km from the line the riders have to climb Mont Saint-Clair. You may not think much of this climb, being just a category 3, but trust me it’s nasty! It’s just under two kilometers long but the average percentage is 10,2% with parts up to 20% - not exactly in favor of the heavy sprinters like Haedo, Van Hummel, Hutarovich etc.

The beginning of Mont Saint-Clair. 1,6 km - 10,2 %

If the Mont Saint-Clair wasn’t tricky enough the final kilometer certainly is! With only a few hundred meters to go the peloton bends right in 180° corner just before hitting the final stretch to the line. Andre Greipel will have a hard time getting his whole Lotto-Belisol leadout train over the steep Mont Saint-Clair and it will also be difficult for them to deliver him perfectly in the end. That 180° corner means that you need to slow down a little and Greipel likes it best when he can be delivered in high speed.

Instead the finish suits Peter Sagan a lot more since he is good at accelerating from low speed plus he won’t lose any positions in the tricky bend. Sagan is also one of the sprinter that shouldn’t be in trouble on Mont Saint-Clair. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if Liquigas decide to put pressure on the peloton to see if they drop some of the sprinters before the finish.

If you are looking for a joker, look to Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank and Danish Michael Mørkøv. This year Mørkøv has shown that he really knows how to get in the right break and you can be sure that he will try again tomorrow. Saturday it’s exactly five years ago since his father died and Michael Mørkøv has said that he wants to honor him by winning in Le Cap d'Agde. I doubt Mørkøv will be able to pull it off, but I’m sure he will manage to show himself up the roads before the finish.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Michael Mørkøv

Tour Preview - Stage 5

---

First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers