Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6 Preview

Chris Froome is the new race leader and it will require something extra from the other favorites to rip the blue jersey of his shoulders. On paper, this may not look like a difficult stage, but I can assure you it is. The two loops of 90 km and one of 28 km around Porto Sant'Elpidio take the riders on a real rollercoaster ride. It’s up and down all day and when it’s up, it’s steep! The climbs aren’t very long but they all have gradients of 10% all the way up to 27%.

Team Sky say they are expecting attacks from everyone on this stage and I would be surprised if not. It will be extremely difficult - even for Team Sky - to control the peloton on these steep hills and the technical descents and narrow roads provide excellent opportunities for riders to attack. The last loop of 28 km includes two small and steep climbs with the top of the last one just 10 km from the line. It’s followed by a very technical descent and only the last 4 km towards the line are really flat. There is a tricky left-right curve with about 1800 meters to go before the final 1500 meters straight out on 7,5 meters wide road.

The Santa Lucia climb is the last
struggle before the finishing line.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let a break get away in the morning and stay away too. Froome doesn’t want any of his competitors to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line so if a break could fight it out between them, Sky would be happy. Still, that doesn’t mean the favorites won’t give a go - especially on the last loop. Sant'Elpidio a Mare is 6,3 km in total - including a 1,5 km descent in the middle - but the last 400 meters have an average gradient of 20% - last 50 meters up to 27%. There is only 6 km from the top of Sant'Elpidio a Mare to the next climb, Santa Lucia, starts. The climb itself is only 1,5 km but has an average gradient of 8,2% and 16% towards the top.

Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali both need to take back 20 seconds on Chris Froome and you can be sure they both want to try on these climbs. Nibali is one of the best riders on the downhill sections and even if he doesn’t manage to drop Froome uphill, he will probably try again downhill.

Astana and Saxo-Tinkoff would like to keep this together and fight for the stage win and the bonus seconds, but it won’t be easy. It’s the last chance for most of the riders to get a result and the expected rain won’t help controlling it either. Strong riders with a fast finish like Tom-Jelte Slagter, Eros Capecchi, Giovanni Visconti, Moreno Moser, Lars Boom and Greg Van Avermaet are all out of the GC and I would expect a couple of these to make it into a winning break. And don’t forget Peter Sagan. He doesn’t seem to be 100% again after his sickness but he’s also a rider capable of winning even when he’s just on 80 or 90%.

I’ve already picked Moreno Moser as my joker twice during this TIrreno-Adriatico and I’ll give him one last chance. You can’t really talk about a favorite for a stage like this one, but of course if Peter Sagan is the man to beat, should he be in the front group in the final. Sunday Tom-Jelte Slagter had to let go of his overall lead in the World Tour standing and I think he is eager to take it back from Richie Porte. He is fast on the line and good on these kind of hills too. Bauke Mollema showed the way for Blanco when he took second place after Purito in Chieti and Slagter could top that one in Porto Sant'Elpidio.

And no; I don’t think the sprinters will be able to stay in front when the GC is this close and the climbs are this steep.

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter & Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 5 Preview

Team Sky are in a league of their own. Especially with a strong head wind on the climbs. They seem unbeatable this year on mountain top finishes, so if you want to get them, you need a powerful kick and some steep percentages. Luckily for the spectators, that is exactly what we will see on this stage. The steep finish in Chieti has quickly turned into a classic Tirreno finish and it will be difficult for Team Sky to control the pack with gradients up to 19%.

Race leader Michal Kwiatkowski continues to perform on a high level this year and if the other favorites want to fight for the overall win, they need to drop him in Chieti. Kwiatkowski is very strong against the clock but on the steep parts, he has his limitations. 

Peter Sagan won this stage last year but it won’t be easy to repeat that win this time. The race organizers have made the finish even more demanding with the inclusion of Passo Lanciano (11.3 km at 8,6%) just 40 km from the line.  Sagan is great on the descents but if Team Sky set a furious pace uphill like on Prati di Tivo, he won’t be in the mix.

Final steep kilometers in Chieti.
Click for larger view.

The last 7 km see the riders tackle two steep parts separated by a 2,5 km descent. Gradients of 19% on the final hill provide an excellent chance for explosive riders to get a gap before the last, tricky, and flat kilometer towards the line. I know Purito didn’t live up to the expectations on Prati di Tivo, but I won’t hesitate picking him as my favorite again. Purito had problems on Prati di Tivo last year too and if he really is in better shape this year - as he states – he’ll win this stage.

The steep part ends with one kilometer to go and this is a great time to counter if the front group stops a little. Last year Vincenzo Nibali got away on the final 500 meters, but was overtaken by teammate Peter Sagan. Not a very wise tactical decision by Sagan who had to apologize to Nibali afterwards. Nibali wants revenge and if Purito doesn’t take this stage, I think Nibali is the best pick. He knows the final very well and he will be extremely difficult to catch if he manages to put in a late attack like last year.

Originally, I would have picked Mauro Santambrogio as joker for this stage but after his amazing performance on Prati di Tivo, I guess he can’t really be seen as a ‘joker’ anymroe. Same goes for Wout Poels who showed to be back on a great level after his horrible crash in the Tour last year. I think both will be up there in the final, but none of them really fit the joker category. Instead I’ll say Moreno Moser. The young Italian came to Tirreno-Adriatico aiming at the GC, but couldn’t keep up on Prati di Tivo. Moser now has to look for stage wins and stage 5 and 6 seems like good options for him. If he manages to stay near the front on the last steep part, he could profit from an strong attack just as it evens out with one kilometer to go. It won’t be easy, but hey; that’s why it’s called a joker.

One last thing. If the favorites don’t attack on Passo Lanciano and Peter Sagan stays in front over this climb, he’ll most likely end up winning the stage. I hope Nibali and Contador will try something far out, but in case they don’t, put your money on the Slovakian wonder boy. I can only pick one winner and even though all three (Purito, Nibali and Sagan) look good to me, I have to stick with my original idea and say Purito.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 4 Preview

Peter Sagan won stage 3 as predicted and just like the last time Sagan won in Tirreno, the following stage will end on Prati di Tivo. Last year Peter Sagan’s teammate Vincenzo Nibali soloed away on the final kilometers, but I seriously doubt Nibali will be able to repeat that victory this year.

As I mentioned in my overall preview for Tirreno-Adriatico, this is the strongest field in many years and compared to last year, most of the favorites have at least two or three strong riders to help on the climbs. Last year only Roman Kreuziger had a teammate in the final. That rider was Paolo Tiralongo who this year is helping Nibali, while Kreuziger himself is at Alberto Contador’s service. Confused? Let’s take a look at the favorites and their teams for the stage.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff

Leader: Alberto Contador

Support: Jesus Hernandez, Roman Kreuziger & Michael Rogers

Astana

Leader: Vincenzo Nibali

Support: Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic & Fredrik Kessiakoff

Katusha

Leader: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Support: Dani Moreno

Team Sky

Leader: Chris Froome

Support: Dario Cataldo, Rigoberto Uran & Sergio Henao

Cadel Evans is the only one of the five big favorites without a strong to help in the uphill sections and as you can see Team Sky are very strong. Last season they perfected how to ride the final climbs in stages races and we just saw how they took control in Paris-Nice. Prati di Tivo doesn’t have any steep, steep sections and that is just how Team Sky like it. Froome can put his team to work from the bottom of the climb and I doubt anybody will manage to get away until the last few kilometers. Astana too have a strong team but I think Brajkovic and Kessiakoff will drop before Uran and Henao.

Looking at the favorites, Purito is the only one set to top very soon; in the Ardennes Classics. Nibali is aiming at the Giro while Contador, Froome and Evans all are set for the Tour. Purito was in the leading group on Prati di Tivo last year, but since he wasn’t supposed to peak until the Giro, he lacked a bit in the end. This year it’s different. Purito started out Tirreno-Adriatico with this mind set on winning overall. He showed in Tour of Oman that he is in excellent shape already and knowing he has to take back the time he lost in TTT, he will be eager to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line. The bonus seconds are also the reason why I don’t think a break will make it. This race will probably be determined within a few seconds and naturally all the favorites want to win this stage. The way I see, Purito is the strongest of them right now. I’m sure Contador will put in a series of furious attacks but I doubt he will be able to drop Purito and Froome for good.

My outsider this time is Bauke Mollema. Blanco have a strong team in this race and Mollema can count on support from in-shape Tom-Jelte Slagter. In the final of stage 3, when Alberto Contador was in front of the peloton Bauke Mollema was right behind him and if the other favorites don’t manage to drop Mollema on Prati di Tivo, his fast finish could even give him the stage win.

Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Joker: Bauke Mollema 

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 3 Preview

Mark Cavendish’ complained about his teammates after the second stage. He had the kick, but no help. Andre Greipel had a brilliant team, but didn’t have the legs despite being in a perfect position in the final. The big showndown between Cavendish and Greipel never came and I’m not sure we will see it on this stage either.

The 190 km from Indicatore to Narni Scalo may look like a sure thing for the sprinters, but the last 70 km have the riders climb several small, steep hills. Among these Todi with an average gradient of 12,2%. The last hilly section of the stage ends with 3 km to go. 800 meters of 4,8% serve as the last chance for opportunistic riders to attack but most likely this will end in a sprint. The heavy sprinters will probably have difficulties staying up front but those aiming at Milano - San Remo need to show they can deal with the hills.

The last 3 km are a bit tricky with a few difficult turns, especially a right bend with about 1500 km to go but the last 500 meters are straightforward on a 7 meters wide asphalted roadway. The weather forecast shows another rainy day for the riders and with many descents on last part of the route, it could easily turn into another chaos. Everybody want to stay up front – both the GC riders and the sprinters - and it will only take a single rider crashing to turn it all upside-down.  

Final circuit towards the finishing line in Narni Scalo.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, this is a great stage for Peter Sagan. As predicted yesterday, he didn’t have the necessary power to sprint for the win on stage 2 but with the many small hills and tricky finish, I think he will have the upper hand against Greipel and Cavendish on stage 3. Matt Goss produced a great sprint when he won in Indicatore and he shouldn’t have problems staying up front either this time. I doubt Lotto-Belisol will be able to provide a strong leadout train for Greipel in this type of finish so it could very well end up being every sprinter for himself.

The favorites want to save as much energy as possible before the big mountain stage the next day, but they won’t let anybody sneak away in the finish either. Vincenzo Nibali and Rinaldo Nocentini have both been showing great shape lately with many attacks in their previous races but they should both be waiting for tomorrow. Instead I’ll pick Moreno Moser as my joker. His conditions is already very good and with everybody looking at Sagan, Moser could try to get away in the final. Not as far out as in Strade Bianche but probably in the last 3-4 kilometers.  Moreno Moser has his eyes on the GC too and it may be foolish to waste energy with a late attack, but on the other hand; he is one of few riders able to finish it off and a stage win sure is better than Top20 overall.

This may be the first time I’ve ever picked two guys from the same team as winner and joker, but I guess there is a first time for everything...

Winnerpick: Peter Sagan

Joker: Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 2 Preview

Omega Pharma Quickstep got the best possible start when they won the opening team time trial and placed Mark Cavendish in the blue leader’s jersey. Now it’s time for the season’s first showdown between Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

Depending on how stage 3 evolves this could be the only stage for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and naturally, no one wants to miss out. The stage covers 232 km from San Vincenzo to Indicatore and has a very tricky finish. With 1200 meters to go the peloton crosses a railroad overpass while turning left into a roundabout. The weather forecast shows light rain all day long and with many top sprinters in the race - plus GC contenders who want to stay up front - it will almost be a miracle if nobody goes down in that corner. Luckily the riders will have a chance to study the finish as the final circuit of 12,4 km will done five times.

As stated in the beginning, this is the long-awaited dual between Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. It’s the first time this season the two super stars are going up against each other mano-a-mano and it’s almost impossible to pick a winner. Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel have been phenomenal so far this season with an outstanding leadout train, but Mark Cavendish showed in Tour of Qatar that he doesn’t need a leadout to win.

Lotto-Belisol probably won’t have much to say in the overall classification as Jelle Vanendert already is one minute down after the TTT, and without any riders to win the medium stages in this race, Andre Greipel is their only hope. So far, Lotto-Belisol’s leadout train has been impeccable and I don’t see why that should change now. Yes, there are many talented sprinters at the starting line but none of them has a leadout train like Greipel do. With Kaisen, Sieberg, Hansen, Roelandts, Reynes and Henderson to lead him out, Andre Greipel simply can get it any better.

The only one with a kick powerful enough to get a jump on Greipel is Mark Cavendish. No other sprinter can match Cavendish’ kick in the final 200 meters and in the blue leader’s jersey, Cavendish will be eager to show who the best sprinter in the world is. Personally, I think Andre Greipel will win this stage, but if Mark Cavendish manages to position himself on Greipel’s wheel, he might have a chance to surprise the German Gorilla with an early kick.

The way I see the rest of the field are only fighting for the 3^rd place on this stage. Of course, both Greipel and Cavendish can get it wrong, but with only one big chance to win a stage, none of them can afford to miss this opportunity. And yes, Peter Sagan is here too, but even though he seems to be flying these days, I don’t see him beating Greipel nor Cavendish in a pancake flat finish. Maybe he can use his amazing bike handling skills in the rainy conditions to gain some positions in the final, but outsprinting the two big favorites? I doubt it…

It makes it difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters in the race, but I would like to point out Radioshack’s sprinter, Giacomo Nizzolo. The young Italian has started out this season very well but is still without a stage win. He was beaten by Greipel in Tour Med and by Bos in Volta Algarve but last week he won the sprint behind the winning break in G.P. Camaiore. Nizzolo can count on excellent support from Danilo Hondo - who used to leadout Petacchi in the mass sprints - and even though Hondo isn’t much of a leadout anymore, nobody knows their way around the front in the final kilometers like the German veteran. I think Giacomo Nizzolo will have an excellent season this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the podium on stage 2.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Giacomo Nizzolo           

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 1 Preview

This is the same stage that opened the race last year. It’s only 16,9 km but most of the route is alongside the sea and the wind and the rain could easily be a factor. The weather forecast isn’t very promising but let’s hope all teams get the same conditions - wet or not.

The intermediate time after 7,9 km is right before the more technical part of the route, meaning the fastest team here won’t necessarily win the stage. The teams have been training on the route for a couple of days already and every team with ambitions of winning this stage will know every part of the route down to the smallest detail.

Last year GreenEdge killed the competition and distanced number two (Radioshack) with 17 seconds. This year we have at least three teams with a good chance of winning and naturally GreenEdge are among them again. The Australian team have specialists like Tuft, Mouris, Lancaster and Impey plus riders like Langeveld and Goss who are good in this discipline too. GreenEdge have been training on the course for the past four days and seem to be the big favorite. Still there are two teams with a chance of beating them.

BMC and Omega Pharma-Quickstep both bring very strong teams for this stage. Originally Tony Martin was set to ride Paris-Nice, but in the end he decided to do Tirreno in order to help out the team in this stage and try his luck in the final time trial. Together with Martin, Quickstep have guys like Kwiatkowski, Stybar, Terpstra, Steegmans and Cavendish for the team time trial and they should be able to clock in a top3 time Wednesday afternoon.

Same goes for BMC. Unlike GreenEdge and Quickstep, BMC are extra motivated to do well in team time trial in order give Cadel Evans a good start in the GC. The American team were outstanding in the TTT in Tour of Qatar and that was even without Evans, Hushovd and Quinziato. Personally, I think this will be a fight between BMC and GreenEdge but I wouldn’t count out Quickstep.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff and Radioshack will most likely be the last two teams in the Top5 for this stage and on a good day both of them could make Top3 as well. It all depends on the weather conditions.

With five so strong teams, it’s not very easy to pick a joker but since it’s now a tradition to do so, I’ll say Blanco. The Dutch team have started out the season in a great way - already taking 10 wins - and they do bring a good team for the TTT as well. Bauke Mollema is aiming at the overall classification and I wouldn’t be surprised if they start out Tirreno-Adriatico the same way they have started out the season.

Winnerpick: BMC or GreenEdge

Joker: Blanco

The first team start at 14:45 local time and with three minutes intervals we can expect the last team to finish around 16:10. For live stage coverage check out cyclingfans & steephills.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Preview & Favorites

No offense towards Paris-Nice but this year Tirreno-Adriatico is the race to watch, should you only choose one of them. We have all big Tour de France favorites at the starting line and even though the Tour is far away, this could give us some important signs of what to expect in July.

It doesn't matter if you are a Spanish, Italian, Australian, German, British or African supporter. This race gives you a mix of all the best riders in the world and we get to make history as well. More on that in the preview.

The Stages:

Stage 1 - 16,9 km Team Time Trial. Same as last year.

Stage 2 - 232 km Sprint Stage. First dual between Cavendish & Greipel.

Stage 3 - 190 km Hilly Stage. Time for a break? Difficult to control for the sprinters’ teams.

Stage 4 - 173 km Mountain Stage. Same finish on Prati di Tivo (15 km / 7%) as last year.

Stage 5 - 230 km Hilly stage. Typical steep finish in Chieti.

Stage 6 - 209 Undulating Stage. Looks like a sprint stage but is nothing like it.

Stage 7 - 9,2 km Individual Time Trial. Same as last year.

The Favorites:

Looking at the start list there are at least six or seven riders with a real chance of winning this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. First up is Alberto Contador. This is one of the (very) few stage races Contador hasn’t won yet and he is eager to add Tirreno to his palmares. He wanted to come here and win last year, but ended up sidelined for the most of the season instead. Unlike the last couple of years, Contador is now very focused on not peaking before the Tour. He started out a couple of kilos heavier that normally and that was probably why he couldn’t shake the peloton as he normally does in Tour of Oman. I think Contador will be a lot better already and I would be surprised not to see him on the final podium.

My personal pick for the overall win is Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez. This year Purito is set to peak in April - not in May like last year - and that means his shape is already very good. He showed in Oman that he’s stronger than the other favorites and with 10 bonus seconds on the line each day, I think Purito can make up for this poor time trial skills by winning in Chieti and probably on Prati di Tivo as well.  Purito is coming to Tirreno with big ambitions of winning the race overall and I doubt the other candidates will be able to drop him at any point.

Chris Froome seems to be preparing himself for the Tour de France the same way Bradley Wiggins did last year. He won Tour of Oman overall and with a strong team to protect him in Tirreno, he will be up there again. Still, it’s important to remember this is a very difficult race to control. Stage 4 is pretty straight forward but stage 5 and 6 are up and down the most of the day and Froome needs to keep a tight leash on Purito if he wants to win his second stage race of the season. Froome should be able to count on a strong time trial the last day, but unless he’s within 10-15 seconds of Purito I doubt it will be enough.

Last year’s winner Vincenzo Nibali will be motivated to defend his title with number 1 on the back, but this year’s field is a lot stronger than last year and I doubt Nibali will be able to drop any of the three mentioned riders above. Astana bring a very strong team to look after him and Nibali and count on support from Tiralongo and Brajkovic in the mountains. Still that doesn’t help much if The Shark isn’t able to drop his rivals. Stage 3 and 6 could be two good opportunities for Nibali to put in a few surprise attacks on the undulating roads, but I’m sure I’m not the only one aware of that.

Cadel Evans started out his season in Tour of Oman and that in a very strong way. He distanced Contador and Nibali on Green Mountain and finished 3^rd overall. Evans won Tirreno in 2011 and he has a super team for the opening TTT to help him get the perfect start. If everything works out perfectly for Evans and BMC on the team time trial, he could have a gap of up to 20-30 seconds on his rivals before Prati di Tivo and then he’ll be difficult to overtake. Evans knows the finish in Chieti very well too and even though I won’t pick him as my personal favorite, I won’t be surprised to see him win overall either.

The way I see it the five mentioned riders are the top favorites for this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico. Just behind these we’ll find riders like Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Chris Horner and Damiano Cunego. All expected to do a great race too. Andy Schleck is here too, so just in case you don’t see him during the race, now you know.

It’s very difficult to point out a joker for top GC result with so many strong riders in the race. Still I would like to mention the young Cannondale talent Damiano Caruso. Caruso has been favorite of mine for quite some years now and he showed his strength last year in the Giro wearing the white jersey while supporting team leader Ivan Basso. This year Caruso will get more responsibility and after a good winter season and a strong training camp on Tenerife last month, he should be ready to try his luck. His main goals are the classics next month, but together with Moreno Moser, Caruso should be able to do well in the GC. Maybe even top10 overall.

For other outsiders look to in-shape Rinaldo Nocentini, Michal Kwiatkowski, Eros Capecchi and Mauro Santambrogio. And don’t forget Spanish climber Sergio Pardilla, riding for MTN-Qhubeka p/b Samsung. The African team are making their World Tour debut in Tirreno-Adriatico and while they may not be among the strongest in the team time trial, they are bringing very good riders in Pardilla and Gerald Ciolek. The German sprinter just won the last stage of Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen last weekend and he’s very eager to challenge Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in the mass sprints. Sergio Pardilla will probably lose time in the two time trials, which minimizes his chancer overall, but he should be able to show off the African team’s colors on Prati di Tivo on stage 4.

The Sprinters:

This is not just a race with all the best GC riders, it’s also the first chance this year to see Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel go head-to-head in a mass sprint. Depending on how the stages evolve, stage 2 could be only opportunity to see the two super stars against each other, but don’t forget we also have Peter Sagan, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb, Tyler Farrar, Roberto Ferrari, Thor Hushovd, Francesco Chicchi, Matt Goss, Giacomo Nizzolo, Gerald Ciolek and many more sprinters in the race!

The trophy:

Tirreno-Adriatico is famous for its handcrafted trident shaped Sea Master trophy and it’s always entertaining to watch the trophy arise from the ocean and follow its way to the podium. Stefano Garzelli won the race overall in 2011 and told me afterwards that his son saw the podium ceremony on TV and wonderingly asked his mother: “Mama, where are we supposed to put that trophy?”

Top10

It seems like an impossible task to do, but I will try to make a pre-Top10 of this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico anyway. Remember, the first four riders all have an equal chance of winning the race. Here we go:

1. Purito

2. Contador

3. Evans

4. Froome

5. Nibali

6. Mollema

7. Horner

8. Samu

9. Cunego

10. Nocentini

Favorites for Tirreno-Adriatico

The other big stage race in March, Tirreno-Adriatico, is ready for us now and we have a great fight between a handful or strong riders to look forward to.

Let’s get straight to it...


Vincenzo Nibali
My own personal favorite for the race. Nibali has been good all year long and showed his strong climbing legs in Tour of Oman when he won on Green Mountain. In Strade Bianche last weekend he was among the best riders as well and with a strong team to back him I think he has very good chances of finally winning Tirreno-Adriatico. Liquigas always perform well in the team time trials and with a real mountain stage on the menu this year (final climb of 15 km on stage5) and a short time trial to end the race, I can’t see anyone better than Vincenzo Nibali right now.

Roman Kreuziger
Kreuziger has only a few race days in the legs so far, but one of his big goals of the season is Tirreno-Adriatico. In Strade Bianche Kreuziger was very strong making the final group and working hard for Iglinskiy, so it seems like he is ready. Kreuziger is very good in the short time trials as well as in the mountains and the short, steep finishes with his powerful sprint. Astana may not have the best team for the team time trial on day 1, but they shouldn’t lose that much either. Kreuziger isn’t afraid of attacking when needed and I think he is a solid pick for the podium.

Peter Velits
Another solid podium pick is Peter Velits. Just like Kreuziger, Velits has red circled Tirreno on the calendar and with his overall win in Tour of Oman and great time trial abilities (strong team as well) he should be mentioned as one of favorites to win Tirreno-Adriatico. The steep finishes like the ones in Chieti and Offida suit Velits well and if he can hang on to the best riders on the final climb on stage5, he has a very good chance of overall success.

Cadel Evans
It would be a mistake not to mention Cadel Evans. He won the race last year, without having done much before, and is more or less in the same situation this year. I must admit I have my doubts though. BMC hasn’t been great so far this year, with all their big riders now knowing they don’t have to top too early. Last year Cadel Evans really needed an overall stage race win, but know he knows what he is capable of. He will be motivated, no doubt, and he has a great team to support him, but I’m not sure he is as strong as Vincenzo Nibali on the climbs just yet.

Michele Scarponi
With only one race day in 2012, Michele Scarponi is a big question mark on my paper for Tirreno-Adriatico. In good shape he could end up winning it, but to be honest I have my doubt with Lampre captain. Last year he took third place overall, 15 seconds behind Cadel Evans, but last year he had already shown great shape in Giro di Sardegna. The course is actually pretty good for Scarponi but like Evans I doubt he is good enough shape to win overall already. He can take a stage, sure, but for the long run I see Nibali and Velits as better contenders.

Exclusive interview - Stefano Garzelli

Stefano Garzelli

Stefano Garzelli had planned to end his long glorious career after the Giro d’Italia this year, but since his team Acqua e Sapone didn’t get an invitation, Garzelli suddenly had to decide he if wanted to continue his career at all. I had a talk with the Italian veteran about the future and to clarify what happened with Bjarne Riis last summer.

Stefano, I'm very sorry to learn about the missing invitation to the Giro d'Italia. It must have been a big chock for you? 
Indeed. After what I managed to do last year in the race, I really didn’t expect this decision. I think I gave a lot to the Giro last year.

Do you find it disrespectful by the RCS not to invite you after all you have given the Giro? 
It’s beyond just lack of respect. I find it very hard to accept. I don’t understand why they have invited teams with less potential among their riders than we have. Beside myself we have two very talented young riders in Taborre and especially Betancur who would be our key rider for the GC. I would have liked to teach Betancur how to win a Giro but unfortunately that won’t happen now. 

Have you considered riding another season in order to be able do ride the Giro next year?
To be honest I won’t exclude it. I have already got an offer to continue one more year, but I will have to take my time and find out if I really want to keep on with the training and make all the sacrifices that go with it. If I can’t see the point in doing it, I will rather stop now because I will not continue riding my bike if I can’t compete with the best riders. 

I know you had planned to end your career after the Giro. How do you find the motivation to continue training without having the Giro to look forward to? 
Well, after I got the news [about not being invited to the Giro] my first thought was to stop my career. At my age it’s difficult to keep up the motivation and make sacrifices when the race that matters the most to you has been taking away. But after I had some time to think about it, I sat myself new goals starting with Tirreno-Adriatico and Milano-San Remo. I think this will be a good way to end my career as well.

Recently La Gazzetta dello Sport wrote that you would sign with Team Saxo Bank after Tirreno in order to ride the Giro. Is there any truth to that? 
I would have liked to, but unfortunately the regulations doesn’t allow it [Read here why not].

I know you were talking with Bjarne Riis last summer about a contract. Can you explain the reasons for not signing with Riis back then? 
Bjarne contacted me last year and we talked about it, but the problem was that I already had a contract with Acqua e Sapone for 2012. I talked with my team [Acqua e Sapone] about changing, but they made it clear to me that it would jeopardize their participation in the Giro and therefore I decided to not change. I could have insisted [on going to Saxo Bank] but because of our relationship I didn’t want to do it. 

So there is no possible way you will be able to ride the Giro d'Italia this year? 
In 2008 when we weren’t invited the decision was final, so I don’t have any hopes left now.

To end this interview I can tell that Stefano Garzelli just became father for the 4th time. He tells that for him 2012 is now already a success. “What more could I ask for than a lovely family and a good health”, he explains to me. Hopefully his newborn son Leonardo will help him getting through a difficult start to the season.