Peter
Sagan won stage 3 as predicted and just like the last time Sagan won in
Tirreno, the following stage will end on Prati di Tivo. Last year Peter Sagan’s
teammate Vincenzo Nibali soloed away on the final kilometers, but I seriously
doubt Nibali will be able to repeat that victory this year.
As I
mentioned in my overall preview for Tirreno-Adriatico, this is the strongest
field in many years and compared to last year, most of the favorites have at
least two or three strong riders to help on the climbs. Last year only Roman
Kreuziger had a teammate in the final. That rider was Paolo Tiralongo who this
year is helping Nibali, while Kreuziger himself is at Alberto Contador’s
service. Confused? Let’s take a look at the favorites and their teams for the
stage.
Team Saxo-Tinkoff
Leader: Alberto
Contador
Support: Jesus Hernandez, Roman Kreuziger & Michael
Rogers
Astana
Leader: Vincenzo Nibali
Support: Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic & Fredrik
Kessiakoff
Katusha
Leader:
Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
Support:
Dani Moreno
Team Sky
Leader:
Chris Froome
Support: Dario
Cataldo, Rigoberto Uran & Sergio Henao
Cadel
Evans is the only one of the five big favorites without a strong to help in the
uphill sections and as you can see Team Sky are very strong. Last season they
perfected how to ride the final climbs in stages races and we just saw how they
took control in Paris-Nice. Prati di Tivo doesn’t have any steep, steep sections and
that is just how Team Sky like it. Froome can put his team to work from the
bottom of the climb and I doubt anybody will manage to get away until the last
few kilometers. Astana too have a strong team but I think Brajkovic and
Kessiakoff will drop before Uran and Henao.
Looking
at the favorites, Purito is the only one set to top very soon; in the Ardennes
Classics. Nibali is aiming at the Giro while Contador, Froome and Evans all are
set for the Tour. Purito was in the leading group on Prati di Tivo last year,
but since he wasn’t supposed to peak until the Giro, he lacked a bit in the
end. This year it’s different. Purito started out Tirreno-Adriatico with this
mind set on winning overall. He showed in Tour of Oman that he is in excellent
shape already and knowing he has to take back the time he lost in TTT, he will
be eager to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line. The bonus seconds are also
the reason why I don’t think a break will make it. This race will probably be determined
within a few seconds and naturally all the favorites want to win this stage.
The way I see, Purito is the strongest of them right now. I’m sure Contador
will put in a series of furious attacks but I doubt he will be able to drop
Purito and Froome for good.
My
outsider this time is Bauke Mollema. Blanco have a strong team in this race and
Mollema can count on support from in-shape Tom-Jelte Slagter. In the final of
stage 3, when Alberto Contador was in front of the peloton Bauke Mollema was right
behind him and if the other favorites don’t manage to drop Mollema on Prati di Tivo, his fast
finish could even give him the stage win.
Winnerpick: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez
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