Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 7 Preview

For the fourth day in a row, we will have a new rider in the blue leader’s jersey. Vincenzo Nibali attacked exactly where everybody expected him to do so, but still no one - except for Purito and Sagan - could keep up with him. Nibali now leads overall with 34 seconds down to Chris Froome and I will be very surprised if he doesn’t win Tirreno-Adriatico for the second time in a row.

This time trial is the same as last year and I doubt even Chris Froome can take back more than half a minute on Vincenzo Nibali in just 9,2 km. Nibali has been working very hard on improving his time trial skills and with a new bike and new skin suit he could even end up surprising quite a few on this stage.

Purito is after two good stages now third overall. He is 11 seconds in front of Contador and 21 seconds in front of Kwiatkowski. Once again, his chances of reaching the final podium depend on his time trial. In January, he said he had improved a lot already and now is really the time to show it. It will be more than difficult to keep Contador - and especially Kwiatkowski - behind him but personally, I hope he will manage.

Only 4 corners to tackle during the 9,2 km.
Click for larger view.

Originally, I had Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin as my two big favorites for the stage, but both put in quite an effort on stage 6. Cancellara was in the morning break and Tony Martin took a big turn for Kwiatkowski in order to close the gap. Still, other candidates like Taylor Phinney and Svein Tuft aren’t in the race anymore, so I think we’re back to where we started. 

Tony Martin changed his race schedule (from Paris-Nice to Tirreno-Adriatico) in order to help his team win the opening TTT and then win this stage himself. He managed to win the first one and the chances are quite good he will to win this one too. 

Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom would have been two good jokers for this stage but since both of them were in the big break on stage 6, I’ll look to Movistar to find my jokers. Jonathan Castroviejo started out Tirreno-Adriatico with GC ambitions, but lost time in the last two stages. He is right now 14^th overall but without a chance of making top10. Castroviejo is an excellent time trialist and he’s especially good on these short distances. He will be one to look out for. The same goes for his teammate Alex Dowsett. He is the British national champion and without him, Movistar probably wouldn’t have taken second place in the opening team time trial. Normally we see surprises in the final time trial in a stage race and I think Alex Dowsett could be that surprise.

Winnerpick: Tony Martin

Jokers: Alex Dowsett & Jonathan Castroviejo

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Strade Bianche: Favorites & Jokers

This may be the strongest field for Strade Bianche so far and therefore very hard to predict a winner. Fabian Cancellara won last year after an amazing solo effort the last 12 km and together with wonder boy Peter Sagan, he is the big favorite. The way I see it there are two likely scenarios.

Scenario 1:

Peter Sagan has one his great days and keeps staying in front when it matters. Sagan is an equilibrist on a bicycle and the white gravel roads should not give him any problems. He is among the best riders on the small steep hills and most likely the fastest rider in the race as well. He won two stages in Tour of Oman before having to withdraw with a sore throat and Thursday he showed to be back as he won GP Camaiore. Knowing how strong he is, you simply cannot rule out Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Strade Bianche. His aim is to win Milano - San Remo and/or Ronde van Vlaanderen this year and taking a win Saturday afternoon will definitely boost his morale. Sagan has Moreno Moser to help him in the finale and Moser showed last year that he can do whatever it takes to bring Sagan to victory. He showed that again in GP Camaiore when he kept the speed up in the break for last three kilometers before Sagan took over in the sprint.

In this first scenario, Peter Sagan wins Strade Bianche thanks to his technical skills and fast sprint on last few hundred meters. Probably in front of Cadel Evans and Oscar Gatto.

Scenario 2:

Fabian Cancellara shows same strength as last year and manages to get away solo. If Peter Sagan does not have any teammates in the final, is caught by bad luck or simply does not have a good day, I doubt any will be able to follow Cancellara. I think BMC will be the only team with more than one rider in the final group - both Greg van Avermaet and Cadel Evans should be there - but I doubt any of them will have what it takes to catch Cancellara. Evans will probably try to dig deep before having a go in Tirreno-Adriatico, but it might very well only be for second place no matter what.

In this second scenario, Fabian Cancellara wins Strade Bianche after a solo attack like last year. Cancellara is very strong right now and remember that a third win of the race will give him a white gravel road named after him. A win here will boost his morale for the upcoming classics and knowing the roads and how to attack them, Cancellara will be very difficult to keep down this Saturday. Like in the first scenario, Cadel Evans takes second place here, probably with Marco Marcato or Giovanni Visconti as the last rider on the podium.

As you can see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara are the two big favorites but if any of these two should strike out, I think Cadel Evans will be ready to take his chance. Evans was outstanding on the epic white gravel stage in the Giro back in 2010 and together with in-form Greg van Avermaet he should be able to do some damage.

Last year I picked Oscar Gatto as my winner pick and he turned out to be one of the strongest rider in the race taking third place after having to get back from a couple of punctures in the final. Last week I said I think Gatto will have a great spring season and this is without a doubt one of the best races for him. Gatto is great on the small hills - don’t forget how he distanced Contador and the rest of the Giro field on a steep finish two years ago - and very fast on the line too. Last year only an outstanding Fabian Cancellara was able to distance Oscar Gatto and even though it’s a stronger field this year, I think Gatto will be there in the final once again.

As always, I would like to mention a few more jokers. Riders like Francesco Reda and Marco Marcato are very strong right now and both seems to be the designated leaders of their respective teams. Reda ended 6^th last year in Strade Bianche and has been having a great season so far with Gianni Savio’s Androni team. He took 3^rd place overall in Tour Med, finished 2^nd in Trofeo Laigueglia and 7^th in GP Camaiore in the same selective group as winner Peter Sagan. Marcato has big hopes for this spring season and showed in Oman to be in great shape already. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he was the first rider to respond to Sep Vanmarcke’s furious attack on Molenberg and I would expect him to be among the favorites in the final on Saturday. He is good uphill and very fast on the line.

For other candidates look to fast riders who are good on the hills like Giovanni Visconti, Rinaldo Nocentini, Lars Boom and Damiano Cunego.

Not to forget: First man through the last corner wins the race.

* * *

Peter Sagan - Fabian Cancellara

* *

Cadel Evans - Oscar Gatto - Marco Marcato

*

Francesco Reda - Giovanni Visconti - Damiano Cunego

Tour of Qatar: Preview & Favorites

Looking at the start list you may think the Spring Classics are starting early this season. Thanks to the heavy wind and sunny weather, every rider aiming at the cobblestones classics want to be here. The hotels are the best the riders will see during the season and despite the lack of hills - or turns for that matter - Tour of Qatar now counts as an important race for all teams with high hopes in March and April.

There is no need for stage profiles as they are all pancake flat. Five stages in the heavy cross wind expected to end in a sprint plus a team time trial on the second day. Tom Boonen normally owns this race and in his absence we have to look to a couple of other of the big contenders for Paris-Roubaix later this year.

First up is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky have had a new approach to the season training very hard during the winter and we already saw what that meant when Geraint Thomas showed off in Tour Down Under. It’s not often you see a track rider drop the climbers on 20% as Thomas did in Australia. Edvald Boasson Hagen didn’t seem to hit it off Down Under, but he did put in a good effort on Willunga Hill for Thomas and managed to take third place on the finale stage. The Norwegian wonderboy aims big at the Spring Classics this season and after getting the legs ready Down Under, I think he will be the man to beat in Qatar. Team Sky have a great team for the TTT and if Eddy mingles with the best in the mass sprints as well I can’t really see who should beat him.

Only guy I can think of is Mark Cavendish.  Quickstep are always on top of their game in this race and must be one of the favorites for the TTT as well. Cavendish is not a stranger to Tour of Qatar, but he always seems to have bad luck or get caught in the wind when it counts. Quickstep have guys like Terpstra and Stybar to keep Cavendish safe, but both of those might as well give a go themselves in the challenging weather conditions. If you are looking for a joker for the overall classification, I’ll recommend Niki Terpstra.

No wonder the cross wind plays a
huge factor in Tour of Qatar...

I said we had to look for Paris-Roubaix contender to find the overall winner and I know Mark Cavendish doesn’t fit this category but the next one will. Fabian Cancellara has always been good in Qatar and with a strong team for the TTT and last year in mind, Cancellara will definitely be a marked man. Last year Tom Boonen started his amazing season by winning in Qatar and hungry for revenge Fabian Cancellara might as well do the same and show the world that he is ready for the classics. The race normally splits up many times during the six days and only a few riders know when to be in front as well as Cancellara do. Radioshack need a new beginning after Bruyneel and the best man to give them that is Swiss.

Last one of my top favorites for the overall win is Taylor Phinney. The young American has set Paris-Roubaix as his goal big goal this season and helped by a very strong team and a fast finish on the line, Phinney should be named as one of the main contenders. As many other teams, BMC are sending their Classics riders to Qatar and having Marcus Burghardt, Michael Schär and Greg Van Avermaet to help Phinney stay in front and out of troubles, I think BMC will be one of the controlling teams in this race. Phinney may not have what it takes to beat Cavendish, Guardini or Degenkolb in a sprint finish, but he is consistent and fast and says he’s coming into the race “strong and confident”.

For what concerns the sprint field this may not be as great as in Tour Down Under, but with names like Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini, Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani on the start list, it should be five very interesting days. Mark Cavendish showed in Argentina that he is ready to win early this season when he won the first stage of Tour San Luis and I expect him to take the first stage in Qatar as well. Andre Greipel turned out to be a level - or two - above everybody else in Australia and I’m certain Cavendish is eager to show he’s up there too.

There aren't many spectators in the dessert for Tour of Qatar
and it wouldn't be a lie to say most of them aren't human.

Andrea Guardini didn’t really hit it off in Tour Down Under and even though he may not be one of the best in the cross wind, he should be able to try his luck in a couple of stages. If he manages to stick to the right wheel in the final, he could be the best pick to beat Cavendish.

If not Guardini then John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano have always aimed at getting ‘the best leadout train in the world’ and they showed last year what they are capable of with Marcel Kittel and Degenkolb. Yet it all went wrong in Tour Down Under. Not a single day did they manage to time it well so you can be sure they too are eager to get started. John Degenkolb was outstanding in the Vuelta last year and without Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano could very well be the leading team in the sprints.

For other fast guys look to Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich Haussler, Kenny Van Hummel, Yauheni Hutarovich and Sacha Modolo. Especially Modolo, who showed to be very fast in Argentina.

That is for me. As always I will leave you with my pre-top10 for the overall classification.

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen

2. Fabian Cancellara

3. Taylor Phinney

4. Niki Terpstra

5. Mark Cavendish (winner pick if he stays up front in the cross wind)

6. Greg Van Avermaet

7. Juan-Antonio Flecha

8. Geraint Thomas

9. Heinrich Haussler

10. Alexander Kristoff

For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde

Vino takes it all

Alexander Vinokourov impressed a whole cycling world by winning Olympic gold in London 12 years after he was forced to let team mate at that time, Jan Ullrich, take the gold medal in Sydney.

Here are a few pictures of the most important moments in the race:

Rigoberto Uran punctured after a few kilometers.
240 km later he was about to take Olympic gold...

Team GB had control of the race from the very beginning.
But on the last time on Box Hill they let too many attack...

Tony Martin was the only rider helping out GB in the chase.
He withdrew halfway through thinking of the time trial...

Fabian Cancellara was in a perfect position but crashed.
Vino, right behind him, managed to stay up and later won...

Uran made a mistake on the last 150 meters and Vino wasn't
late to take advantage and make sure he couldn't get caught.

12 years after having to "give" Ullrich the win in Sydney
Vino now finally got his Olympic gold medal...

A devastated Cancellara knew he could have won. Instead of
the podium he went to the hospital to get his shoulder checked.

Vino 1st, Uran 2nd, Kristoff 3rd. If you had that combination
right before the start, I salute you! 

It's real! Alexander Vinokourov wins Olympic gold in his last
season as professional! That calls for respect...

Tour Preview - Stage 9 (ITT)

---

We will end the first part of the Tour de France the same way we started it; against the clock! This is not a very hilly time trial but it’s not a flat one either. There are no categorized climbs on the menu but just before the first time check it’s uphill for about 1,5 km with over 10%. This means that the first split time can cheat us a bit since most of the strong time trialists aren’t that great at changing rhythm. After time check there’s a fast, technical descent before the second split time and then there's the long stretch home. Last part of the route is slightly downhill towards the line.

Favorites:

Unless this is the first bike race you are watching within the last 5 years you shouldn’t be surprised to see Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins as the two big favorites. It should have been a three-man fight for the win, but since the last week only has been about surviving for Tony Martin after his crash, I doubt that he will be ready to challenge Cancellara and Wiggins.

Bradley Wiggins says it’s a very technical course and I that means it should suit both him and Cancellara very well. Before the Tour started Cancellara said he wanted to ride only focusing on getting ready for the Olympic Time Trial 3½ weeks ahead.  Thing is that he won the prologue and has been working hard every since to honor the yellow jersey - even on the nasty finish in La Planche des Belles Filles. If Fabian Cancellara had been saving some energy the last week I would have put him down as my winner pick, but to be honest I think Bradley Wiggins is the better choice.

Wiggins knows that this is his first big chance to take a lot (!) of time on his main rivals for the overall victory and he showed in Dauphiné that he’s on the very top of his game right now. In Dauphiné he almost caught Cadel Evans, starting two minutes ahead of him, and even though I don’t think it will happen this time, I’m sure that Wiggins will take at least one minute on Evans in Besançon.

Another important rider when we talk the overall classification is Bradley Wiggin’s team mate Chris Froome. In the Vuelta España last year Froome actually beat Wiggins on the long time trial in Salamanca by 23 seconds (and Fabian Cancellara too by 28 seconds) so he sure knows how to ride a good time trial against the elite. Chris Froome has also been picked for the British Olympic team for the time trial (44 km) and this is a great way to show that he is ready for that too. I won’t go as far as saying that Froome will win this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the last spot on the podium after Wiggins and Cancellara.

Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Top3 pick: Chris Froome 

Exclusive Interview - Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana)

Fredrik Kessiakoff hopes to get his own
chances during the Tour de France.

Fredrik Kessiakoff took the cycling world by surprise when he won the long time trial in Tour de Suisse in front of home favorite Fabian Cancellara. Afterwards the Swede said he didn't think it would be enough to get a spot on Astana's Tour de France team, but luckily for Kessiakoff he turned out to be wrong about that.

Fredrik, first of all congratulations on getting picked for the Tour-team. You didn't believe in it yourself, what happened?
Thank you. The team thought my condition looked similar to last year and I guess they took a little chance picking me for the Tour. Last year it was kind of the same situation. They left me out of the Tour and I won Tour of Austria. The results in Tour de Suisse shows that I can do well in the time trials and in the mountains.

After Tour de Suisse you told me that your climbing-legs weren't so great already. Are they ready for the Tour now?
Well I'm not peaking just yet. My shape is still too "uneven". After the bad start of season with asthma and allergies I have been working on peaking in the second part of the season. 

So what are your personal ambitions in this Tour?
I have two goals. The first one is to be at my best in the last week and the second one is to go for a good personal result on a stage.

What will your role be like on this strong Astana team for the Tour?
You can say I have a free role. On some stages I will have to be in the breakaway to help the team but in others I hope to try my own luck. Of course I will also be helping my team mates by carrying water bottles now and then.

What do you think your team leader, Brajkovic, can do. Podium?
Jani is very talented rider, but I think that a spot on the podium will be very difficult. Top10, on the other hand? For sure! 

Who is your own personal favorite for the overall win? 
Evans and Wiggins are my two big favorites. I think Wiggins will win, most of all because he has a stronger team than Evans. I also think that guys like Menchov and Sanchez will be able to fight for the podium.

Looking ahead. Last year you did a great Vuelta until your off-day on Angliru. Are you still aiming at doing well in the overall classification in the Grand Tours in the future?
Yes. I hope to get more chances, but it all depends on my results. I hope to be the team leader for the Vuelta after the Tour, but I won't take the role if I don't feel my shape good enough. The Vuelta will also be very tough this year with both Contador and Andy Schleck being there.

What about the Olympics and the World Champion. Does your great time trial in Tour de Suisse give you extra hope?
Well, unfortunately Sweden has only got one rider for the Olympic time trial and there are no doubts that Gustav [Erik Larsson] will get that one. I really believe he can take a medal in London. I would love to represent Sweden for the World Champions but for now my focus is on the Tour and the Vuelta.

Exclusive: Kessiakoff doubts open Tour spot despite TT win in Tour de Suisse

Kessiakoff once again hopes to be strong during the
Vuelta España but doubt he will be at the Tour this year.

Fredrik Kessiakoff took the cycling world by surprise when he clocked in best time on the individual time trial in Tour de Suisse, two seconds faster than Fabian Cancellara. Kessiakoff’s super time soon proved to be unbeatable and thereby the Swede got his victory of the season.

The 32 years old climber won Tour of Austria last year and was for a long time a solid GC contender in Vuelta España before his off day on Alto de L’Angliru. So far this year Fredrik Kessiakoff has been struggling to find the right rhythm on the bike but now it seems like he is ready to rumble once again. Or is he? According to the Swede himself he still lacks a bit of shape when it comes to the mountains and therefore he doubts that this win will open up a spot for him on Astana’s Tour de France team.

“I don’t think my mountain-legs are quite there yet I must admit so I don’t know if I’ll be there [in the Tour], but I doubt it. We will see”, Fredrik Kessiakoff tells me.

With Janez Brajkovic and Alexander Vinokoruov set out gunning for the Tour, Kessiakoff may have better chances to show off in the Vuelta once again and is also his goal for the second part of the season.

 “I hope I will be riding very well both before and during the Vuelta” he assures.

Update 19/06: Fredrik Kessiakoff just confirmed that he in fact will be riding the Tour de France for Astana this year. Congrats Fredrik!

Interview - Christa Rigozzi (Tour de Suisse promoter & former Miss Switzerland)

Christa Rigozzi. Former Miss Switzerland
and now Tour de Suisse promoter

Saturday the 9^th of June Italian journalist (and a good friend of mine) Alberto Celani met up with Swiss beauty Christa Rigozzi to have a talk about cycling, marketing, being a national icon and of course the ongoing Tour de Suisse which Christa Rigozzi is promoting. Here is the introduction to the interview by Alberto Celani.

Today I've met Christa Rigozzi, Miss Switzerland 2006, together with Davide Calabresi (young photographer and industrial designer)  and I must say that any woman in the world of cycling should be proud of her. Christa Rigozzi represents women, her nation and cycling in the best way possible. I very much respect her for  the way she’s handling being a former Miss Swiss, the  love she has for her country, her open mind and her great way of promotion Swiss culture, tourism, sponsors and herself. I would like to thank Mikkel Condé for the opportunity he gave me and Davide to meet this great cycling personality.

Christa, first of all, how did a former Miss Swiss get into cycling?

I got into it when I was crowned Miss Swiss where I got a contract with Wurth and that partnership has been going on ever since. I like it a lot and I like the relationships we have enforced here.

Let’s start with a quick introduction. Who is Christa Rigozzi?

She's a spontaneous girl with a strong desire of discovering new things. She likes travelling and she has a great motivation.

You are a now a Swiss symbol. What does it mean to be Miss Switzerland nowadays?

Well, I was crowned Miss Switzerland in 2006 [Christa Rigozzi is still the most known Miss Switzerland] and I've understood the value of being a Miss in my country. Being Miss Switzerland makes you even more popular than politicians here! It also helped me to get the job I love and it gave me several opportunities in different fields like fashion, TV, radio, marketing and being representative of Wurth here at Tour de Suisse. Of course it helps being open minded and speaking all the Swiss languages (German, Italian & French).  When I became Miss Switzerland I had to drop out of university, but in 2008 I graduated in Law and Criminology studying at night while I was working and travelling by day.

Cycling and Marketing are entities very much connected these days, how can a model like you help sponsors to find a good leverage in the modern market?

I'm representing many companies and here at Tour de Swisse is like I'm representing all the Swiss people. I think we have to study hard marketing drivers in a scientific way in order to choose the right strategy. It's not just a "sponsorship" but a true partnership and I believe that all the firms I’m working with are making some pretty good campaigns. Probably it’s because we work together all year long and in many cases also for many years (Wurth contracted her back in 2006).

Let’s talk a little about territorial marketing. Switzerland is doing a great job in promoting tourism abroad and as national symbol yourself, what  do you think about the MySwitzerland campaign?

First of all I must say that Switzerland is not expensive! There are many special offers for families too and here we really have everything; lakes, wonderful mountains, historic places, nice cities etc etc. In the winter we have our ski areas and in the summer you can enjoy amazing tracks and roads for cycling and mountain biking. MySwitzerland (www.myswitzerland.ch) does a great job to help hikers, riders and tourists plan their holidays here. I myself represent Canton Valais and you should really try Leukerbad. It’s an amazing place and appreciated by many people from all over Europe for its thermal facilities and landscapes. Tour de Suisse is also an opportunity to show to the world what we have here and to give a reason to come and visit us.

As you say, Tour de Suisse is a great opportunity to promote all this. But also a great opportunity to get more people to start riding their bike.

Exactly. Tour de Suisse has to be an occasion for families and young people to discover the pleasure of riding their bikes. Not only to dream about being like Fabian Cancellara but also because ‘riding your bike is wonderful’. We must promote this type of mobility and Tour de Suisse is a great opportunity to do so.

Christa Rigozzi. Here interviewed by Alberto Celani.

Let’s talk about Tour de Suisse now. For a rider’s point of view why should he decide to ride this bike race?

Because of our mountains, they are hard but also amazing. Because the people here here love cycling. Because the race is well organized and because the calendar puts the race in a great moment to prepare the second part of the season. It is a short race with all the difficulties you need to gain fitness for Tour de France. I saw a great Damino Cunego in mountain stages last year and maybe Tour de Suisse is the best race to fine tune your condition.

What is your best memory from the race?

I would say the ambient. It’s awesome driving your car on these amazing roads getting to the finish after being at the start to greet and introduce the riders at the sign in. I also love the fans and the special stamina you and the riders get from their support. It's really important having so many people supporting the race.

Do you think Tour de Suisse will ever be more than 'just' a warm-up race for the Tour?

I think it already is for many others than the big Tour-favorites. It’s a very hard race and I think it will be a very interesting race to watch again this year.

Who is your personal favorite for the overall win?

I would like to say Cancellara, but the race is very hard  and the mountains are not really in his favor. The rain will make them [the mountains] ever more difficult!

Talking about Cancellara. Being Swiss yourself, knowing how it is to be the pride of the nation, it must have hurt seeing Cancellara miss all the big spring classics due to his crash. Do you think it gave him extra motivation for his comeback?

Yes! I know him well and I think he'll be back better than before. He is tough his body has responded well to the recovery. The whole country love and support him. Let’s see what this race has got for him. 

Interview by Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé
Photo by: Davide Calabresi

You can follow Christa Rigozzi on Twitter at @christarigozzi.