Giro d'Italia: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After three tough days, it’s now time for the sprinters. It’s a short stage, only 169 km, and it’s pancake flat. Pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Mattia Gavazzi and Francesco Chicchi have had some very difficult days on the bike, but now they have a chance to get their saying. Especially Chicchi and Gavazzi will be eager to get a good result after they both crashed on Stage 1.

The stage ends with two laps of 16.3 km in Margherita di Savoia. Stage 5 ended up in a big crash in the last corner with 1 km to go, but with the last three kilometers straight out this time, we should get a regular power sprint with all the big leadout trains lining up their guns.

Mark Cavendish is the big favorite. He showed on Stage 1 that he wins just as easily with a broken leadout as he does when everything goes smoothly, and it’s difficult not to see him winning this stage too. He will be able to rely on Steegmans and Trentin for the final leadout and even though Argos, GreenEdge or Cannondale ends up in front with 1 km to go, Cavendish still has a kick a level or two above the rest.

Being a power sprint, naturally John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani will have a good chance with their strong leadout trains. Still, I think guys like Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi will have a solid chance of taking Top3. Bouhanni didn’t look good on Stage 3 and 4, but he was right up in the mix on Stage 5 before getting hold up by the crash. The French champion is a former boxer and he shows that on the bike too when fighting for the right wheel in the sprint. Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kick as Cavendish, but he’s very fast on the final meters and he can now turn his frustration from Stage 5 into motivation for Stage 6.

For Stage 1, I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for a spot in Top3 - he ended 4^th - but allergies could prevent the fast Italian from being at his best. The weather forecast shows a sunny day in the saddle and riders suffering from allergies like Nizzolo and Phinney won’t have it easy in such a power sprint.

The first sprinter to get dropped on Stage 5 was Mattia Gavazzi. He knew the climb was too steep for him and he didn’t even try to hang onto the peloton when he lost ground. Gavazzi is in great shape right now and I think he will give Androni another podium spot in this year’s Giro d’Italia in this stage. Gavazzi believes he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish right now, and even though I won’t say the same, I do believe he will put up a good fight.

It’s difficult to pick a joker for the sprint stages this year since all the sprinters in race are solid Top3 candidates. Instead, I would like to point out Edwin Avila. The young Colombian isn’t well known - yet -  but I think he can surprise a little in this Giro. I’m not saying he’s going to win a bunch sprint, or even making Top3, but he can definitely aim for a place in Top10. Like many others, he didn’t get a chance to test his legs on Stage 1 due to the crash, but he was in the wheel of Chicchi (in the wheel of Cavendish) and that shows he’s ready. Teammate Leonardo Duque will probably also try to get in the mix and together the two Colombians should be able to get a good result for the team.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top 3 picks: Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi

Joker: Edwin Avila

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 6:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 1 Preview

For the first time in 10 years, the Giro starts with a regular stage. Last time that happened Alessandro Petacchi won and took the first Maglia Rosa and everything but another bunch sprint will be a big surprise.

The sprinters won’t have many chances in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this one is certainly one they don’t want to miss out on.

The stage is only 130 km long and it’s split up into two difference loops. The first one includes the category 4 climb Posillipo on Via Francesco Petrarca and is covered four times within the first 55 km. There is a KOM sprint placed on the top of Possillipo the 2^nd and 3^rd time the riders cross the top so expect fireworks right from the beginning of the stage. The smaller teams and those without GC riders or sprinters will be eager get in the break and take the KOM jersey on the first day of the Giro.

After looping on the Posillipo Hill four times the riders head back to Napoli and start on eight laps in the city. The last 6 km are tricky with many bends and corners but the last 2 km seem pretty straight forward. Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge, Cannondale and Quickstep will all try to hit the front the last few kilometers and with everybody having fresh legs - and thinking of Maglia Rosa - it sure will be hectic.

Usually Mark Cavendish doesn’t win on the first day of a stage race, but being Cavendish he still is the big favorite. He didn’t get Alessandro Petacchi as leadout for the Giro and that means it’s up to Trentin and Steegsmans to deliver Cavendish on the right wheel - not leading him out, delivering him. Note the difference! Cavendish decided to go to Tour de Romandie, a stage race without any mass sprint finishes, in order to get ready for the Giro and I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a stage to get 100%. That being said, I wouldn’t bet against him either.

The way I see it, there are three sprinters on the same level just behind Cavendish. Matt Goss, John Degenkolb og Nacer Bouhanni. Goss and Degenkolb probably have the two strongest leadout teams in the race since and I think it will be a fight between GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano to take the front on the last kilometer. Seeded in the third group on my paper we’ll find Roberto Ferrari, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo and Giacomo Nizzolo. My personal favorite in this group is Nizzolo. He’s getting better and better every year and it won’t be long before he’s beating the big favorites in the mass sprints. Nizzolo doesn’t need a leadout train and while everybody is looking at Cavendish, Goss and Degekolb, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nizzolo made top3 in Napoli.

Also, look out for Francesco Chicchi. He didn’t impress much in Tour of Turkey last week but he is an expert in these short criterium stages. You normally never see Chicchi until the final 50 meters, but he has a strong kick and high top speed. If anyone can make an upset and snatch Maglia Rosa from the favorites it’s Chicchi!

Get live race updates and more predictions by following me on Twitter @mrconde.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Joker: Francesco Chicchi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 1:



For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 2 Preview

Omega Pharma Quickstep got the best possible start when they won the opening team time trial and placed Mark Cavendish in the blue leader’s jersey. Now it’s time for the season’s first showdown between Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

Depending on how stage 3 evolves this could be the only stage for the pure sprinters in this year’s Tirreno-Adriatico and naturally, no one wants to miss out. The stage covers 232 km from San Vincenzo to Indicatore and has a very tricky finish. With 1200 meters to go the peloton crosses a railroad overpass while turning left into a roundabout. The weather forecast shows light rain all day long and with many top sprinters in the race - plus GC contenders who want to stay up front - it will almost be a miracle if nobody goes down in that corner. Luckily the riders will have a chance to study the finish as the final circuit of 12,4 km will done five times.

As stated in the beginning, this is the long-awaited dual between Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel. It’s the first time this season the two super stars are going up against each other mano-a-mano and it’s almost impossible to pick a winner. Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel have been phenomenal so far this season with an outstanding leadout train, but Mark Cavendish showed in Tour of Qatar that he doesn’t need a leadout to win.

Lotto-Belisol probably won’t have much to say in the overall classification as Jelle Vanendert already is one minute down after the TTT, and without any riders to win the medium stages in this race, Andre Greipel is their only hope. So far, Lotto-Belisol’s leadout train has been impeccable and I don’t see why that should change now. Yes, there are many talented sprinters at the starting line but none of them has a leadout train like Greipel do. With Kaisen, Sieberg, Hansen, Roelandts, Reynes and Henderson to lead him out, Andre Greipel simply can get it any better.

The only one with a kick powerful enough to get a jump on Greipel is Mark Cavendish. No other sprinter can match Cavendish’ kick in the final 200 meters and in the blue leader’s jersey, Cavendish will be eager to show who the best sprinter in the world is. Personally, I think Andre Greipel will win this stage, but if Mark Cavendish manages to position himself on Greipel’s wheel, he might have a chance to surprise the German Gorilla with an early kick.

The way I see the rest of the field are only fighting for the 3^rd place on this stage. Of course, both Greipel and Cavendish can get it wrong, but with only one big chance to win a stage, none of them can afford to miss this opportunity. And yes, Peter Sagan is here too, but even though he seems to be flying these days, I don’t see him beating Greipel nor Cavendish in a pancake flat finish. Maybe he can use his amazing bike handling skills in the rainy conditions to gain some positions in the final, but outsprinting the two big favorites? I doubt it…

It makes it difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters in the race, but I would like to point out Radioshack’s sprinter, Giacomo Nizzolo. The young Italian has started out this season very well but is still without a stage win. He was beaten by Greipel in Tour Med and by Bos in Volta Algarve but last week he won the sprint behind the winning break in G.P. Camaiore. Nizzolo can count on excellent support from Danilo Hondo - who used to leadout Petacchi in the mass sprints - and even though Hondo isn’t much of a leadout anymore, nobody knows their way around the front in the final kilometers like the German veteran. I think Giacomo Nizzolo will have an excellent season this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the podium on stage 2.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Giacomo Nizzolo           

For live coverage of the stage check out cyclingfans & steephills.