Vuelta a España: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After missing out on stage 4, Michael Matthews did a perfect sprint to win stage 5. GreenEdge worked all day in front of the peloton all day long and in the sprint, nobody came close to the young Australian. Garmin tried to set up Tyler Farrar but they will soon have to realize that Farrar’s day as a top sprinter seems to be over.

Stage 6 is the second of three days in a row made for the fast guys and we can expect another bunch sprint. The stage starts out in Guijuelo and the riders will be able to enjoy a slight tailwind all the 174 km south towards Cáceres. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu and even though it’s not flat either, it’s definitely not as hard as the last two days.

With 7 km to go, the road starts to kick up a little but only 2.5 %. It won’t make for a selection in the peloton but the technical final four kilometer may do. Are no less than six difficult turns within the last four kilometers and of course a handful of roundabouts to overcome as well. This being the Vuelta and everything, of course the final turn comes just 400 meters from the line. Heading into a roundabout the peloton goes the long around instead of just turning left. This will really stretch out the peloton. If you enter this roundabout in second or third position, you have a very good chance of winning the stage.

Michael Matthews has been the fastest of the sprinters the last two days and he’s morale is now sky high. Originally GreenEdge had Leigh Howard down for this stage but it doesn't really make sense not to go for Matthews again. He’s obviously the fastest right now. Then again, the team spirit on GreenEdge is amazing and thinking about it, it wouldn’t actually surprise me to see Matthews leading out Howard to win.

Gianni Meersman tried to pass Matthews in the final of stage 5 but he didn’t even come close. I think it will be very difficult for Meersman to win this stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Omega Pharma Quickstep gave youngster Andy Fenn a chance.

The final four kilometers. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano is right now the best sprint team in the world. They have finally perfected their leadouts and again on stage 5 they tried to make a surprise. They have a young team for this Vuelta and you don’t see any of the regular Tour de France riders among the nine starters. However, they still managed to hit the front with 5 riders on the final kilometers. Nikias Arndt was the man for stage 5 but it’s not necessarily him they will be going for every day. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam are also very fast on the line.

Lampre’s Maximiliano Ariel Richeze is another fast rider in great shape right now. He wasn’t on top of his game in Eneco Tour but he still managed to finish 2^nd and 4^th in the sprints. This Vuelta is Richeze’s first Grand Tour since he did the Giro d’Italia in 2007 and he’s super motivated to do well. The Argentinian had to fight hard to get on Matthews wheel in the final of stage 5 and with a little bit more luck he might have been able to get closer. It won’t be easy for Richeze to win stage 6 but I think we will see the him in top3 again.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has finished 6^th the last two days in a row. The Norwegian rider was a bit disappointed with his sprint on stage 5 and he will be very motivated to do better this time. Boasson Hagen seems to be getting stronger every day and without any top sprinters in the peloton, he may give Team Sky their first win in this Vuelta Thursday afternoon.

Last of the outsiders for the win in Cáceres is also the rider finishing last on stage 5. Barry Markus is only 22 years old but he  hasalready been close to beating some of the big sprinters. In Tour of Qatar he finished 2^nd after Mark Cavendish twice and after coming back from his injury, Markus took 2^nd place on stage 1 of Arctic Race of Norway earlier this month. Vacansoleil-DCM has been setting up Grega Bole the last two days but with a more flat stage, it’s now time for the fast Dutchman.

As of Wednesday evening the weather forecast shows 50 % chance of rain for the final. Hopefully the roads will stay dry. If not, it seems unlikely nobody will crash on the last four kilometers.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 6, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Giro Rosa: Stage 7 Results & Comments

We expected a bunch sprint and we got a bunch sprint. Marianne Vos easily took her third stage win of Giro Rosa when she outsprinted the former double World Champion Giorgia Bronzini and Shelley Olds. Mara Abbotts stays in the Pink Jersey with a solid lead to Italian Tatiana Guderzo.

Bronzini said: “I really tried today but Vos today gave us no chance. No excuse though, she was simply the fastest. I think having lost the chance to win the Giro made her even more hungry for this stage win”.

Shelly Olds were happy taking third place in a difficult sprint: “I was alone so I had to use Vos’ Bronzini’s trains. I’m really happy to share the podium with them. My team was focused on protecting Hausler so she can keep her second place overall”.

Tomorrow is the final stage of Giro Rosa. It’s a time trial of 16 km in Cremona and we can expect high temperatures.

Stage 7 results

1. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

2. Bronzini Giorgia (Wiggle Honda) s.t.

3. Olds Shelley (Team Tibco To The Top) s.t.

4. Wild Kirsten (Nazionale Olanda) s.t.

5. Guarischi Barbara (Vaiano Fondriest) s.t.

6. Tagliaferro Marta (MCipollini Ale Galassia) s.t.

7. Kozonchuk Oxana (Rusvelo) s.t.

8. Amialiusik Alena (BePink) s.t.

9. Borgato Giada (Pasta zara Cogeas) s.t.

10. Hoskins Melissa (Orica Ais) s.t.

GC:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa) in 20h06’50”

2. Guderzo Tatiana (Mcipollini Ale Galassia) a 2’28”

3. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2’52”

4. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 3’01”

5. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team) a 4’50”

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By: Alberto Celani 

Giro Rosa: Stage 6 Results & Comments

Mara Abbott on her way to take her second stage win in a row. This time in the Pink Jersey. Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Mara Abbott took her second stage win in a row and she’s now leading the overall classification with 2:40 min to Tatiana Guderzo. Giro Rosa entered the hometown of Elisa Longo Borghini and the injured Italian star rider was cheering for her colleagues from a wheelchair in front of her home in Ornavasso.

Italian youngster Francesca Cauz finished third on the stage and keeps her White Jersey as she is now fourth overall. Winner of the Giro in 2009, Claduia Hausler is third overall after she finished second on the stage. “It’s very hard to beat Abbott on a finish like today so I’m happy with my second place”, she tells.

Saturday’s stage is one for the sprinters. Still, after two difficult days in the mountains many riders will be tired and with a little luck, a break could make it.

Stage 6 results:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

2. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 24"

3. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 34"

4. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 41"

5. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'03"

6. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 1'32"

7. Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team) a 1'39"

8. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 1'46"

9. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) a 1'52"

10. Vysotska Yegvenia (Sc Michela Fanini Rox) a 1'53"

Overall Classification:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa) in 17h14'34"

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 2'40"

3. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'55"

4. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 3'10"

5. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 4'50"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By: Alberto Celani 

Giro Rosa: Stage 5 Results & Comments

Mara Abbott won the Queen Stage of Giro Rosa after a strong solo attack. Race leader Vos lost more than 5 minutes.
Photo: Giro Rosa Press Office

Stage 5 was the Queen Stage of this year's Giro Rosa and made a huge upset in general classification as Marianne Vos lost more than five minutes. Vos had been dominating the race until in the first four stages but now she only 7^th overall, 3:15 min after the new leader Mara Abbott.

Abbot from Boulder, Colorado won the race in 2010 and today she took an amazing stage win on the American Independence Day. “I am more than happy. I didn’t have any tactics, I just attacked when the road started to get steeper”, Abbott said after the stage.  

Marianne Vos knew it wouldn’t be easy for her today but she didn’t expect to lose the jersey. “I wanted to keep the jersey but the race is not over yet”, she explains.

New rider in the White Jersey is Francesca Cauz. The young Italian finished second on stage and now hopes to keep the jersey all the way. “I knew I was feeling good today and I have to thank my team, my sport directors and the sponsors”.

Second in the overall classification is Tatiana Guderzo who finished fourth on the stage. She’s now aiming at the time trial on the final day: “Today I wasted too much energy but I know the time trial suits me. I will take it day by day and tomorrow is already another hard day”.

Tomorrow Giro Rosa take place in the Verbano Cusio Ossola area, Elisa Longo Borghini's homeland. The Italian rider crashed at the national championship and had to forfeit for the Giro.We think her friends and teammates will prepare something special for her, like the Americans did today.

Stage 5 results:

1. Abbott Mara (Nazionale Usa)

2. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 1'44"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'49"

4. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'51"

5. Gillow Shara (Orica Ais) a 2'38"

6. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) 2'49"

7. Vysotska Yevgenia (Michela Fanini Rox) a 3'02"

8. Alena Amialiusik (BePink) a 3'45"

9. Moolman Ashleigh (Lotto Belisol Ladies) 3'51"

10. Stevens Evelyn (Specialized Lululemon) a 3'51"

Overall Classification:

1. Abbott Mara (Usa)

2. Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia) a 1'27"

3. Luperini Fabiana (Faren Kuota) a 1'34"

4. Hausler Claudia (Tibco To The Top) a 2'27"

5. Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo) a 2'30"

The 5 Jerseys:

Leader: Abbott Mara (Usa)

Points: Vos Marianne (Rabo Woman Cycling Team)

KOM: Cromwell Tiffany (Orica Ais)

Youth: Cauz Francesca (Top Girls Fassa Bortolo)

Best Italian: Guderzo Tatiana (MCipollini Ale Galassia)

By Alberto Celani & Mikkel Condé

Tour de France: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage for the pure sprinters and the peloton shouldn’t have any problems bringing back a morning breakaway. We are in for another fight between the best sprinters in the world and hopefully we won’t see any crashes.

The Route

The 176.5 km from Aix-En-Provence to Montpellier only include a tiny climb and from its top, there are still over 100 km to go. The biggest threat today is therefore the crosswind which they riders will be battling the whole stage.

If the wind is as strong as expected, a couple of teams could really blow the race a part and the all the GC riders will have to stay in front. That means it will be a fast stage and together with high temperatures it won’t an easy day in the saddle. Not at all!

The final 9 km of the stage. 

The Finish

The finish is very easy and there is not much so say about it. Entering Montpellier the peloton only has to tackle one difficult corner the last 8 km. With 2.5 km to go the riders turn left into the tail wind and from here on it’s more or less straight out the way towards the line.

The Favorites

This is a surely a finish for big sprinters like Greipel and Kittel. Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the two best lead out trains in the world and it will be a furious fight to take the lead on the final kilometers. Argos timed it perfectly on Stage 1 - not knowing about the bus-situation, just focusing on their plan - and I think they will end up in front on the final two kilometers. In Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers, Marcel Kittel has an extraordinary lead out and he will be eager for revenge after his crash on Stage 5.

With riders like Kittel and Greipel it’s all about who’s team ends up in front when it counts. Kittel has a strong lead out train but Andre Greipel does too. The German Champion can count on support from Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson and if Lotto-Belisol gets the lead, it will be Greipel who will be difficult to pass.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lead out train as strong as he used to. Still with Tony Martin to set the pace and Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans to lead him out, he showed on Stage 5 that it’s all he needs. Omega Pharma Quickstep were outstanding in the final and no one came close to beating Cavendish on the line. From the helicopter view it seemed like Peter Sagan was able to match Cavendish’ speed but once again Sagan didn’t position himself well. It would have been a close call had Sagan been on Cavendish’ wheel and hopefully we will see them go head to head soon again.

The Jokers

I’ve named Alexander Kristoff as a joker the last couple of years but I doubt he fits that category anymore. The big Norwegian has been on fire this season and don’t be surprised to see him make Top3 again on this stage. Another joker I’ve used before is Danny Van Poppel. The Vacansoleil-DCM sprinter is the youngster rider to take part in the Tour since WWII. Many doubted if Van Poppel was strong enough to be in the mix but he showed on Stage 1 that he is. He took third place in the sprint and I think he will be up there again this time. It’s true many of the top sprinters didn’t contest in that sprint but even with a full peloton I think Danny Van Poppel has what it takes to make another great result. It won’t be easy to beat the big sprinters but I wouldn’t rule out Top5 on a good day.

It’s hard to not pick Mark Cavendish as the big favorite after his - and his team’s - performance on Stage 5. Also, if the race gets blown a part, Omega Pharma Quickstep shouldn’t be one of the teams left behind. They have a big part of their Classic team here and they will be able to take advantage of it. However, the way I see, Argos-Shimano have the best lead out train in the race. If they can take the front - and keep it - with 3 km to go, Marcel Kittel will extremely difficult to pass with Tom Veelers leading him out. If anyone can do it though, it’s Mark Cavendish.

Another joker for the stage is Ramunas Navardauskas. If we end up with echelons, I would imagine Navardauskas to be in the front group. He’s not going to outsprint Mark Cavendish but if some of the big favorites are caught behind, he might be able to do top3.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3: Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel / Ramunas Navardauskas

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 6:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

On paper this stage may look like a good one for a breakaway to make but the final part isn’t as hard as it may seem. The profile shows two small climbs starting with less than 30 km to go but they aren’t very steep.

The first one, a 3 km long category 3 climb, has an average gradient of 6.8 % but with a strong tail wind, the peloton will be able to keep a high speed. Reaching the top there are still 5 km of false flat before the descent starts. The downhill section isn’t very technical and it will be difficult to keep the peloton at bay.

The road starts to kick up again with 14 km to go but the two kilometers towards the sprint aren’t steep at all. The descent only has one tricky hairpin corner and when the riders turn right on Seestrasse, it’s straight out for almost 8 km towards the finishing line. A lonely rider or a small group will have difficulties keeping a gap with a strong cross/head wind alongside Lake Zürich and I think we will see another bunch sprint.

There is a small traffic island just before the road bends right with about 200 meters to go. The turn is not as important as the sharp one on Stage 4 but if you need to be among the first three in order to win.

Once again, it’s hard not to pick Peter Sagan as the favorite. He won’t have any problems on the hills and with a strong team to support him he will be difficult to beat. Sagan didn’t managed to position himself well on Stage 4 and that cost him the win. On Stage 5 he was in the right position but ran out of teammates in the end. Sagan had to start his sprint too early and after two missed opportunities, he must be eager to take revenge now.

It’s also a good finish for a real power sprinter like John Degenkolb. With a head wind the last 8 km it’s important not to hit the front too early and Degenkolb probably has the best leadout train in the race. A couple of years ago Argos-Shimano’s mantra was to get the best leadout train in the world and they are close to succeeding. They didn’t time it well in the beginning of the season but recently they have been looking very strong. It’s true they messed up a bit on Stage, but I still think Degenkolb will be first rider into the last bend. Time will tell if that’s enough to win.

Since this stage is good for a power sprinter, it’s naturally also good for Alexander Kristoff. As mention in the preview for Stage 5, the Norwegian is very strong right now. He made it look easy when he beat Sagan and Démare on Stage 5 and his moral is now sky high. Once again, it’s difficult to pick between the three riders named above. Kristoff’s confidence is high now, Sagan is out for revenge and Degenkolb must be eager to finally show himself. If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Sagan again.

There are many strong sprinters in this race and it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance to win. My pick this time is youngster Boy Van Poppel. He may not be able to beat the best sprinters in this race but on a good day, he’s up there fighting for podium. Van Poppel took 5^th place on Stage 3 of Tour of California and he seems to be in good shape right now ending 9^th on Stage 5. Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of fast guys in Tour de Suisse but instead of sprinting for each other, they are now focusing on Van Poppel. Grega Bole has been assigned as leadout for Van Poppel and if the young Dutchman gets on the right wheel, he could very well make top5 if not more.

If it a breakaway makes it after all - though I doubt that - look out for Luis León Sanchez. The Spaniard is back after his short suspension and he's already in great shape. He attacked from a far and won the last stage of Belgium Tour last month and he could very well give a go in the final 25 undulating kilometers.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Boy Van Poppel & Luis León Sanchez

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

Critérium du Dauphiné: Stage 6 Preview

For the second time this year, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse. The Dauphiné stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while the Tour de Suisse stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too. 

---

A good stage but it’s possible the best part is hidden from view as the tricky Col du Barioz will be climbed before the TV coverage begins. This climb is difficult and could be selective. It won’t Chris Froome and his team but it could see sprinters ejected for good despite the promise of a flat finish in Grenoble.

Stage 5 Wrap: Rohan Dennis enjoyed a day in yellow but cracked on the final climb. He did everything right in terms of positioning until he cracked and was left turning a giant gear, as if his front mech was stuck.

Chris Froome did what the Dutch call the dubbelslag: a double strike, he won the stage and took the overall lead. He said his team set the pace on the final climb so he felt obliged to win. He’s wooing the media at the moment, L’Equipe praised his manners after taking many questions in post-race press conference after the time trial despite his team media handler trying to get him out of there and Froome’s French will be an asset for the millions who will watch the race on TV. Froome will be more defined by his ability to get out of the saddle and win but if the French media have taken to him, all the better for him.

Back to the racing and Alejandro Valverde had a go but Team Sky’s mountain train had the better of him, Valverde’s best trick is a sprint on a mountain stage so it was a surprise to see him go early. Behind there was trouble for Joaquin Rodriguez who punctured whilst Pierre Rolland was delayed by a crash in front of him. With the tempo being set up ahead they could not get back.

Alberto Contador bounced back with an attack that only only Chris Froome could match. The Spaniard might have lost out in the time trial and will lose this race but he’s still climbing faster than the others in the lead group bar Froome.

Radioshack’s Matthew Busche deserves a mention. He was in the day’s break and when they started the first climb he’d vanished from the TV coverage. But as ever, the TV only looks at a tiny section of the race and Busche was pacing himself and eventually rode past his earlier breakaway companions with a measured effort on the climb and held on for third place. A note of Daniel Moreno and Daniel Navarro, potential mountain stage winners for the weekend.

The Route: it’s not possible to freewheel from the start to the finish but the race could ride down the main valley for an easy ride. Instead though the race heads away from the valley floor for a series of climbs, notably the Col du Barioz, 7.1km at 7.3% but the first kilometre is 10%. It’s on tricky roads that are narrow and reminiscent of the Giro and the Col des Ayes is sharp, 3.8 km climb at 8.1 %. Then the race sticks to series of lumpy roads.

The Finish: fast and flat, the last three kilometres are a straight line all the way until the 500m to go sign when a left-hander appears.

The Scenario: sprint or breakaway? It’s a short stage meaning if a move goes, it has to be kept on a tight rein and this is not easy for teams used to controlling a move in time rather than right from the start. Normally it would be time for a breakaway to enjoy the day but OPQS probably want to set up Gianni Meersman for the win and they have prodigious horsepower in Tony Martin, Sylvain Chavanel, Michał Kwiatkowski and more. Other teams also have ambitions, Sky could set up Edvald Boasson Hagen again whilst Elia Viviani seems to be climbing well. Nacer Bouhanni has been finding the climbing hard going and there’s not much time to get back on once the climbing is done, only 40km or so.

Superstition: still stuck for a pick? Thor Hushovd has showed himself in Stage 3 and the race arrives in Grenoble, the home of Stendhal, a French writer (despite the Norwegian-sounding nom de plume). His most famous book is probably Le Rouge et le Noir so what better place for a BMC rider to win?

TV: the Col du Barioz will be climbed around 1.00pm so it’ll be too early for the TV. Once again remember the early finish for 2.45pm. cyclingfans.com and steephill.tv have the links to video streams if you can’t get it on TV.

Weather: the same as before only warmer: sunshine turning to rain with potentially a storm later on. But the early start and finish every day could be a saving grace for those who don’t like the rain. And should it rain, the temperature is forecast to rise steadily throughout the day, going from 21°C to a fine 26°C during the stage.

Tirreno-Adriatico: Stage 6 Preview

Chris Froome is the new race leader and it will require something extra from the other favorites to rip the blue jersey of his shoulders. On paper, this may not look like a difficult stage, but I can assure you it is. The two loops of 90 km and one of 28 km around Porto Sant'Elpidio take the riders on a real rollercoaster ride. It’s up and down all day and when it’s up, it’s steep! The climbs aren’t very long but they all have gradients of 10% all the way up to 27%.

Team Sky say they are expecting attacks from everyone on this stage and I would be surprised if not. It will be extremely difficult - even for Team Sky - to control the peloton on these steep hills and the technical descents and narrow roads provide excellent opportunities for riders to attack. The last loop of 28 km includes two small and steep climbs with the top of the last one just 10 km from the line. It’s followed by a very technical descent and only the last 4 km towards the line are really flat. There is a tricky left-right curve with about 1800 meters to go before the final 1500 meters straight out on 7,5 meters wide road.

The Santa Lucia climb is the last
struggle before the finishing line.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let a break get away in the morning and stay away too. Froome doesn’t want any of his competitors to get the 10 bonus seconds on the line so if a break could fight it out between them, Sky would be happy. Still, that doesn’t mean the favorites won’t give a go - especially on the last loop. Sant'Elpidio a Mare is 6,3 km in total - including a 1,5 km descent in the middle - but the last 400 meters have an average gradient of 20% - last 50 meters up to 27%. There is only 6 km from the top of Sant'Elpidio a Mare to the next climb, Santa Lucia, starts. The climb itself is only 1,5 km but has an average gradient of 8,2% and 16% towards the top.

Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali both need to take back 20 seconds on Chris Froome and you can be sure they both want to try on these climbs. Nibali is one of the best riders on the downhill sections and even if he doesn’t manage to drop Froome uphill, he will probably try again downhill.

Astana and Saxo-Tinkoff would like to keep this together and fight for the stage win and the bonus seconds, but it won’t be easy. It’s the last chance for most of the riders to get a result and the expected rain won’t help controlling it either. Strong riders with a fast finish like Tom-Jelte Slagter, Eros Capecchi, Giovanni Visconti, Moreno Moser, Lars Boom and Greg Van Avermaet are all out of the GC and I would expect a couple of these to make it into a winning break. And don’t forget Peter Sagan. He doesn’t seem to be 100% again after his sickness but he’s also a rider capable of winning even when he’s just on 80 or 90%.

I’ve already picked Moreno Moser as my joker twice during this TIrreno-Adriatico and I’ll give him one last chance. You can’t really talk about a favorite for a stage like this one, but of course if Peter Sagan is the man to beat, should he be in the front group in the final. Sunday Tom-Jelte Slagter had to let go of his overall lead in the World Tour standing and I think he is eager to take it back from Richie Porte. He is fast on the line and good on these kind of hills too. Bauke Mollema showed the way for Blanco when he took second place after Purito in Chieti and Slagter could top that one in Porto Sant'Elpidio.

And no; I don’t think the sprinters will be able to stay in front when the GC is this close and the climbs are this steep.

Winnerpicks: Tom-Jelte Slagter & Moreno Moser

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.

Paris-Nice: Stage 6 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.

---

Sandwiched between yesterday’s summit finish and tomorrow’s uphill time trial, it’s tempting to ignore today’s stage. But like all sandwiches, the filling in the middle should the tastiest part.

Today’s route is has plenty of climbing and tricky descents in the second half and there’s a chance to shake-up the overall classification. But if this doesn’t happen we’ll see exciting racing on scenic roads.

• Km 6.5 – Côte du Bois de Rousset, 4.4 kilometre-long climb at 4.5% – category 3
• Km 87.5 – Côte des Tuillières, 2.2 kilometre-long climb at 7.8% – category 2
• Km 103.0 – Côte du Mont Méaulx, 1.7 kilometre-long climb at 4.3% – category 3
• Km 138.5 – Côte de Cabris, 7.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.8% – category 1
• Km 148.5 – Col du Ferrier, 4.3 kilometre-long climb at 6.8% – category 1

The Route
A scenic charge east across the southern foothills of the Alps. The start town of Manosque is a great place for cycling, far away from the more crowded finish in Nice. The race avoids a lot of the best roads but it’s still 220km to go as quickly as possible to Nice.

The Finish
Look at the profile and there’s a long downhill run to Nice. The first part twists and turns and a chase is hard if a group is away but the closer the race gets to Nice the bigger the roads get and the harder it will be for a move to stay away.

The final kilometres are flat and smooth along the wide seaside Boulevard des Anglais road. The secret here is to watch the wind coming from the sea and sprint in the shelter of riders.

The Scenario
Andrew Talansky lost the lead by attacking yesterday. His three accelerations yesterday helped thin the lead group and had riders and viewers alike sitting on the front of their saddles and sofas but ultimately when he slowed Richie Porte rode away for the stage and race lead. Nevermind the tactics it’s possible Talansky tries to make amends on this stage with some moves. But any attacks from his part will probably be late rather than over the big climbs as there’s a long way from the last climb to Nice. If not Talansky then note others might try too, they can climb up the GC with even a small time gap thanks to the time bonus.

More likely is that finally a breakaway will stay away, it’s the last chance for half the bunch to win something so expect a fast start as moves try to go clear. Thomas Voeckler’s won before in Nice. He tried the other day but was too close on GC to be let go, now having lost more time on the overall classification he’s an obvious candidate to try again. Talking of Frenchmen, watch Yoann Offredo as the FDJ rider is suited to long distances and today’s slog could suit him as a test ahead of Milan-Sanremo. It’s hard to pick a rider but remember they need a kick to win on the flat at the end.

Weather: rain showers along the way with cool temperatures of 10°C (50°F) rising to only 14°C (57°F) in Nice. A light headwind at the finish is forecast.

TV: the schedule changes with the weekend to a later slot of  3.25 – 4.50pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are the go-to sites for video streams.

History: in 1955 the peloton left Manosque for Nice but instead of 220km the route was 258km. The stage was won by Gilbert Bauvin who almost won the Tour de France in 1956 but was beaten by Roger Walkowiak. Walkowiak’s name has become synonymous with winning the Tour de France by chance, because if such a feat seems impossible, in 1956 a group of 31 riders including Walkowiak escaped on an early stage to win come in with 18 minutes on the peloton. Walkowiak had to fight, he lost the lead but gained it back and finally won the Tour.

Gilbert Bauvin in 1950

Ironically Bauvin was promoted at the last minute to the France A team which left a vacancy in the French B team… which was filled by “Walko”, the the only rider management could find at short notice. In France gagner à la Walkowiak, “to win like Walkowiak,” became a phrase used beyond cycling to describe an easy win or an undeserved triumph. You can feel sorry for Walko here but imagine being Bauvin who ended up losing to the Tour to the man painted as cycling’s greatest loser.

Ride It: the final part of the stage should be familiar to many riders in the race. Some of the pro peloton lives in Monaco and a larger share lives in the surrounding area around Nice.

TDU Preview - Stage 6

Tom-Jelte Slagter did like expected on Willunga Hill and seems now sure to take the overall win. Also joker Rafa Valls put in a strong fight for the stage win, but on Australia Day Simon Gerrans showed he still had a bit of kangaroo left in the legs. Impressive rise indeed.

Now it’s time for the final stage. It’s the typical circuit in Adelaide (20 x 4,5 km) and I would expect the winner from last year - and 2008 - to make a hattrick. Andre Greipel has been on a level or two above everybody else in this race and to have Greg Henderson to lead out should almost give him the win pre-race. Greg Henderson has been leading out the winner the last three years in a row, even taking second place twice, and if Lotto-Belisol were to make it 1 and 2 again this time, I can’t imagine anyone would be surprised.

The circuit in Adelaide. 20 x 4,5 km.

It’s a high speed finish and very often the riders end the way they are placed behind the winning train on the final 500 meters. Meaning that whoever gets Andre Greipel’s wheel in the end will most likely be able to stay on it all the way to the line. Of course there is the chance of Argos-Shimano timing their train right, but against this Lotto-Belisol machine I doubt it will happen in Australia this year.

I’ve already mentioned Jonathan Cantwell among the jokers earlier and he showed his potential with a third place in the last bunch sprint. Another guy I pointed out in the first preview was Andrew Fenn.

The youngster from Quickstep came out of Tour Down Under in super shape last year, winning Trofeo Palma de Mallorca & Trofeo Migjorn but this year he was aiming at showing his talent a few weeks earlier. He came close on stage 4 and showed last year that the short fast stages suit him very well. I think it will be difficult for Fenn to take the win, but a podium spot is definitely within reach.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel

Joker: Andrew Fenn

Vuelta Preview - Stage 6

This stage has Purito written all over it. If the stage finish in Eibar was good for Purito this one is nearly perfect. The stage looks a lot like stage 5 from last year’s edition with the traditional finish in Valdepeñas de Jaén and even though the finish this time is a little longer, it still suits guys like Purito & Valverde very well.

The finish up to Fuerte del Rapitán is 2,8 km long with an average gradient of 7,5% and comes right after the Cat3 climb Puerto de Oroel, which according to former top climber Fernando Escartin isn't very difficult, but has a very fast downhill section with a lot of corners. "Therefore it's very important to be positioned in the front already on Puerto de Oroel if you want to have a chance to win the stage", Escartin points out.

The beginning of the last climb up to Fuerte del Rapitán.
2,8 km - average gradient of 7,5% - Parts of 14%

It’s not only the descent from Puerto de Oroel that includes many turns also the final climb to Fuerte del Rapitán can compete on that level. No less than 13 hairpin curves in the last two kilometer with parts up to 14% wait the riders before the finish line.

Purito missed out on stage 3 and said he was pissed at himself and never would let it happen again. I think he will be extremely motivated to take his first stage win in this Vuelta and especially while he’s wearing the red leader’s jersey. 

In Vuelta a Burgos he delivered Dani Moreno perfectly in the finals where Dani easily won and now it’s time to pay back the gesture. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dani even makes Top3 on this stage after setting up Purito.

Still my joker for the day is Bauke Mollema. He missed out on a good result in the Tour de France because of the big crash early in the race and he seems very eager to take revenge in the Vuelta. These kind of steep finishes are normally not really this thing but with the shape he’s showing right now I think he can surprise a few. Another thing that people tend to forget is that Mollema is actually very fast on the line and even though he can’t compete with guys like Valverde and Purito he is still a lot faster than many of the other guys.

Winner pick: Purito

Joker: Bauke Mollema

---

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: Nicolas Roche

Joker: Pablo Lastras

Explanation: Nico has never won a stage on a Grand Tour and he's been riding well so far on his Saxo Bank work experience stint at the Vuelta. The Franco-Irish rider is never going to win a major mountains stage and he's not a big enough threat on GC to be denied access into a break and beyond. Could he finally come of age in the Pyrenean foothills? Probably not, but hey, there's no pressure in this competition: I have a 3-point lead and Mikkel is never going to guess the correct winner. Truth be told, Roche is just as much a wildcard as my choice for joker: the evergreen Pablo Lastras. With Valverde now out of red, the Spanish veteran is free to do his own thing, which usually translates as kicking ass in his home Tour. This could be his day - although deep down I feel that Vacansoleil may provide the winner of this unpredictable stage, a puncheur's paradise. 

---

Overall score:
Felix 3 points
Mikkel 0 points

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 6

---

Another sprint stage and another win for Andre Greipel. Just like it was supposed to be. That’s 5 out of 6 correct winner picks. Let’s hope it can continue for a while. The question is now if Greipel can make a Tour de France hat-trick on Stage 6. Looking at the profile there is no doubts it will turn into another bunch sprint and once again the race organizers have put in a very tricky finish!

Favorites:

The last 950 meters are all flat out to the finish line so if Lotto-Belisol manage to time like they have done in the past three sprints it should be another for Andre Greipel. However I think Mark Cavendish will be extremely motivated to take revenge. On Stage 4 he got sidelined in the sprint by the crash and on Stage 5 he made a mistake of losing a few positions in the final and was unable to overcome Greipel on the uphill finish.

The Lotto-Belisol train has been perfect so far, but they need to be very alert in the final on Stage 6. Just before the 2K mark there’s a 180° corner in the big roundabout from Rue du 20. Corps American going to Rue de l’Argonne and after that yet another roundabout with 1500 meters to go. The most tricky part of the finish has still to come though. The “Last Kilometer Gate” is placed just before the viaduct under the railroad and right after that the road turns left in a 90° corner.  Luckily the weather forecast shows it should have stopped raining in Metz by then, but if not the riders have to be extremely careful coming through that viaduct and turning left.

Thinking about the last days it seems almost impossible we shouldn’t see any crashes in the finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two riders go down in that last tricky corner.

The viaduct just before turning left in a 90° corner. 1 km to go.

Lotto-Belisol with Andre Greipel is of course the team and man to beat, but don’t forget that Mark Cavendish is always best when he has some rage inside of him. I think the World Champion will be those few extra percentages more eager to win and that could be very well be just enough.

With three sprint stages behind us already it’s not very difficult to say who’s going to be in the mix. Alessandro Petacchi took 2^nd place on Stage 4 and if he manages to place himself near the front and doesn’t lose any positions in the last corner this finish could be very suitable for strong Italian to take another podium place.

Winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Alessandro Petacchi

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 6

Gianni Savio explains:

This could be another stage for the sprinters. There are some hills but they are not so hard yet. That being said, I hope that we will see a break making it to the finish. I’m sure there will be a lot of attacks on the small hills in the final 60 km and maybe a group of 5-6 riders can stay away.

I hope that we [Androni] can take a win like we did last year with Angel Vicioso. This time with Fabio Felline. That would be great!