Tour Preview - Stage 8

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Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

Favorites:

First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Tour Preview - Stage 3

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We are already at day four in the Tour de France and just like Stage 1 this one has Peter Sagan written all over it! The last 35 km shows no less than five categorized climbs. Short one between 1 and 1½ km but all around 6-9% average. It looks like a real Ardennes classic and with the last 700 meters kicking up with 7,4% it’s tailor made for the puncheurs!

Favorites:

Not only is the last 700 meters towards the finishing line favoring Peter Sagan because it’s uphill but also because the last 150 meters are very tricky! After 500-600 meters uphill the road turns left just to turn right the very next moment in a roundabout before crossing the line. Sagan has shown numerous times how exceptional his bike handling skills are and the finish could be a little bit like the one in Tour de Suisse where he managed to overcome Ben Swift on the final meters despite a tricky double corner section just before the line.

Last year people seemed sure that Philippe Gilbert would win on Mûr-de-Bretagne after his outstanding victory on the first stage, but Gilbert couldn’t repeat it. Some might think that it will be the same with Sagan, but that’s not the case. While Gilbert is a one-day-race specialist, Peter Sagan knows how to win day after day in a stage race. In Tour of California he won five stages out of eight and in Tour de Suisse he won four out of nine. Sagan has already pointed out Stage 3 as a good chance for him to take his second stage win in the Tour and if Liquigas can managed to keep it together he will be very difficult to beat. Very difficult!

Last 700 meters of the stage kicks up with 7,4 % average. 

Alejandro Valverde did an outstanding job on Stage 1 when he managed to get back to the peloton after nearly crashing just a few kilometers before the final climb. Needless to say he started the climb in the back of the pack, but he still managed to get near the front and if it hasn’t been for Gesink sprinting close to the barrier in the final, Valverde could very well have taking 4^th place behind the leading trio. I doubt Alejandro Valverde will win Tuesday’s stage but I’m sure he will be in the mix - probably top3.


Fabian Cancellara said that he would try to attack again if he saw an opening, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went away just over the top of the last cat3 climb. The downhill section is very tricky and despite what the profile shows it's actually downhill almost all the way towards the final 700 meters. 

If you are looking for a joker, look to Robert Kiserlovski. The Astana rider is always rock solid and good on these kind of hills. His main job is to make sure Janez Brajkovic stays near the front, but if he sees his chance he won’t hesitate to take it. Team mate Alexander Vinokourov is also a man for this type of finishes and he is ready again he could be a serious outsider in Boulogne-Sur-Mer.

My pick: Peter Sagan to win Stage 4

Joker: Robert Kiserlovski

Exclusive: Kessiakoff doubts open Tour spot despite TT win in Tour de Suisse

Kessiakoff once again hopes to be strong during the
Vuelta España but doubt he will be at the Tour this year.

Fredrik Kessiakoff took the cycling world by surprise when he clocked in best time on the individual time trial in Tour de Suisse, two seconds faster than Fabian Cancellara. Kessiakoff’s super time soon proved to be unbeatable and thereby the Swede got his victory of the season.

The 32 years old climber won Tour of Austria last year and was for a long time a solid GC contender in Vuelta España before his off day on Alto de L’Angliru. So far this year Fredrik Kessiakoff has been struggling to find the right rhythm on the bike but now it seems like he is ready to rumble once again. Or is he? According to the Swede himself he still lacks a bit of shape when it comes to the mountains and therefore he doubts that this win will open up a spot for him on Astana’s Tour de France team.

“I don’t think my mountain-legs are quite there yet I must admit so I don’t know if I’ll be there [in the Tour], but I doubt it. We will see”, Fredrik Kessiakoff tells me.

With Janez Brajkovic and Alexander Vinokoruov set out gunning for the Tour, Kessiakoff may have better chances to show off in the Vuelta once again and is also his goal for the second part of the season.

 “I hope I will be riding very well both before and during the Vuelta” he assures.

Update 19/06: Fredrik Kessiakoff just confirmed that he in fact will be riding the Tour de France for Astana this year. Congrats Fredrik!

Most interesting signings for 2012

I’m sorry I’ve been M.I.A. for a while now, but I had some personal things to sort out. Anyway now I’m back and I think it’s time to take a look at the transfer-window and see which teams made the best deals for 2012.

It’s easy to point out BMC’s aggressive strategy (BuyMoreCaptains) with riders like Philippe Gilbert, Thor Hushovd, Marco Pinotti and Tejay Van Garderen signing on for 2012, but instead of that I rather want to look at some of the scoops for next year.

Manuel Belletti

First of all, we have Ag2r. Despite having promising French sprinters like Lloyd Mondory and Anthony Ravard, team boss Vincent Lavenu still felt the need to grab three new fast guys. French veteran Jimmy Casper, Italian up-and-coming Manuel Belletti and Russian 12-wins-so-far-this-season Boris Shiplevski. The name to remember here is of course Manuel Belletti. He has been stuck in the Italian calendar for some years now and I’m really looking forward to see what he can do in the big races, especially in the Grand Tours where he doesn’t have to share the sprinter-role with Sacha Modolo anymore. Look out for Belletti, he will be taking home many podium places in 2012! Great transfer!

Angel Vicioso

What seemed like a Russian revolution in the Tour this year, has now been changed quite a bit at Team Katusha. A lot of new, international personalities are now to find at the team, who once again managed to sign some very interesting riders! It would be too easy to say Oscar Freire, so instead let’s focus on another Spaniard, Angel Vicioso. Together with Freire, he will be a key player in the one-day-races, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he snatched a win in of the spring classics. Great transfer!

Next up is Lampre. On one hand it seems like they want to back Alessandro Petacchi even more than this season with lead-out signings like Viganò, Paolini and Ongarato, but on the other hand they have also signed two of my favorite younguns in, future GC star, Mattia Cattaneo and Davide Cimolai who is planned to take over from Petacchi when he can’t win anymore, probably already this year. Two young Italians with huge potential  good transfers!

Giovanni Visconti

Without BMC, I would say Movistar has been making the best deals for next year. Youngsters like Castroviejo, Herrada, Quintana together with already established Karpets and Visconti, well that's just impressive. Especially Giovanni Visconti who I think finally will get his big break through on the international scene, meaning winning big races – not “just” those on the Italian calendar (no offense). And by the way, don’t forget Movistar also gets Alejandro Valverde back in 2012. Outstanding transfers!

Astana has also been quite aggressive, signing Brajkovic, Seeldrayers, Bozic etc for 2012. It’s no secret that I've already pointed out Janez Brajkovic as one of my top candidates for the Giro d’Italia next year, but let’s look at another new name at the Kazakh team instead. Francesco Gavazzi. Gavazzi has been riding in the shadows at Lampre his whole career and even though he has been able to shine a few times, like when he won a stage in the Vuelta España this year, I expect him to show his full potential in 2012. Gavazzi is a rider who should be named among the candidates for races like Milano-San Remo and Amstel Gold Race and without any other hilly sprinters at Astana, I think Gavazzi will turn out to be a really important signing for Team Vinokourov. Great transfer!

Mark Renshaw

With Oscar Freire and Graeme Brown leaving Rabobank, Matti Brechel focusing on the classics and Theo Bos far from consistent I think new-signing Mark Renshaw could be quite a scoop. Renshaw has been the world’s best lead out man for a while now but has also always delivered when given the chance. Mark Cavendish was upset to see his best man leave, and it will be very interesting to see the two going on head-2-head (get it…) in the mass sprints next year. Great transfer!

Last team for now is Team Sky. Everybody expected Mark Cavendish to sign on and of course he did just that. Cavendish is a guarantee for victories and that is exactly what Team Sky needs. Therefore Cavendish is the most important transfer of the season, no doubt. Still I would like to focus on little less known Salvatore Puccio. The young Italian won the U-23 version of Ronde van Vlaanderen this year and is a rider much like his hero Oscar Freire. Puccio is still very young and has a lot to learn, but I think we will already see some of his enormous talent next year. Great transfer!

Well that’s it for now. These are the signings I see as the most interesting for 2012. Please feel free to comment if you agree or disagree.

For my view on Team Saxo Bank’s transfer situation please read my piece “Explanation - Why Saxo Bank hasn’t signed a new star to help Contador” by clicking here.

Eagerness to perform sends home the favorites

What do Bradley Wiggins, Janez Brajkovic, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Chris Horner, Alexander Vinokourov and for this matter Christophe Kern have in common? For starters they all were listed as big GC hopes for the Tour de France but what’s more important; they all came to the Tour more ready and eager to perform than ever before!

After last year’s catastrophically Tour-performance Bradley Wiggins seemed to be fitter than ever and very determinate to show all his critics that his 4^th place in 2009 wasn’t a coincidence. His overall victory in Dauphiné proved he was back on track and must have boosted his moral sky high. The whole team was build around him and he couldn’t wait to show what he was capable of – unfortunately we never got to see it...

Like Bradley Wiggins, Jurgen Van den Broeck was flying in Dauphiné taking an incredible win on the first mountain stage and 4^th overall. It looked so easy for Van den Broeck every time it started to go uphill and suddenly only the a spot on the final podium in Paris seemed to be acceptable for the Omega-Lotto leader and his followers. Like Wiggins he was eager to show what he could do in the big mountains and like Wiggins he ended up leaving the Tour after a crash.

Other riders matching this profile are Team Radioshacks duo-leaders Janez Brajkovic and Chris Horner. Brajkovic build his whole 2011 season around the Tour. Nothing else mattered. His impressive win in Dauphiné last year, where he hold off Alberto Contador making it look like a walk in the park, made Bruynell and co. talk about a final top5 for the young Slovenian, if not the podium. Again a massive pressure being put on the rider and again he crashes out. Same goes for Chris Horner. Doing top10 last year, looking out for Lance Armstrong and the rest of the team, Horner was eager to show his own qualities. The very same qualities that made him win Tour of California with his closet rival being team mate Levi Leipheimer – almost 3 minutes ahead of Tom Danielson as third. Horner said before the Tour that he would make “Top5 for sure – if not more!” – well I am sure he would have been up there, but like the others he ended up in a ambulance.

You probably see where I’m going with all this, but let us just take a few more examples. Alexander Vinokourov. Last Tour de France in his life. Ready to do whatever it takes – on the bike – to fulfill his life-long dream and get at least one day in yellow. On stage 8 it looks like it’s about to happen, but the strong head wind knocks Vinokourov out on the last couple of hundred meters. The very next time – and probably the last change to get yellow – Vinokourov ends up in the forest on a slippery downhill section. Was it because the Garmin riders were riding too fast or was it because Vinokourov was too eager to stay in front and try to get the jersey?

Last example for now is Christophe Kern. The big sensation in Dauphiné. Before a heavy time trialist, but after losing 11 kg in the winter season, suddenly a strong climber and gunning for the GC in the Tour. Kern won a stage in Dauphiné and was, if not the strongest, definitely one of the strongest in the race. Those performances made Christophe Kern rethink his Tour de France ambitions and went from “helping out team mate Charteau in the mountains” to “stage win, polka dot jersey and hopefully a good GC”. Like all the others mentioned here, Kern crashed and abandoned the Tour.

So is all this just bad luck? Could it have happened to anyone? Well, it probably could have. But it didn’t. It didn’t happen to Cadel Evans who nearly nobody counted in for the final podium. It didn’t happen to Ivan Basso who’s Tour-ambitions got knocked down a bit after his crash in May on Etna. It didn’t happen to Frank Schleck, a rider who normally crash as much as Cavendish wisn and it didn’t happen to Tony Martin, another rider who many seemed to forget while picking out favorites. I did in fact happen to Alberto Contador – the biggest favorite of them all – but is he out of the Tour? No Sir, he is not.

This little write-together could have been even longer if I got started on Robert Gesink (finally being the team leader in the Tour, going stronger than ever), Levi Leipheimer (winning Tour de Suisse and finally seemed back to former strength) and Andreas Klöden (Winning Paris-Vasco & 2^nd in Paris-Nice) but even though they too are in a lot of pain cause of their crashes, they are still in race, fighting to prove me wrong…

Can Etxebarria repeat his win from 1999?

Our Tour de France expert David Etxebarria knows the finish of today's stage better than the most. In 1999 the Basque climber attacked his fellow escapees with 22 km to go and made it all the way to the finish to take beautiful solo victory in Saint-Flour. 4 days later Etxebarria won his second stage in the Tour, when he out-sprinted a young Alexander Vinokourov in Pau.

Today David Etxebarria has picked French animateur Thomas Voeckler to win the stage and giving his inside knowledge on the stage, don't be surprised if the Europcar leader crosses the finish line first later this afternoon!