Giro d'Italia: Stage 16 Preview & Favorites

On paper, this looks like a good stage for another breakaway to make it all way. Giovanni Visconti managed to keep the favorites behind him on Stage 15 and despite a tough climb towards the end, I think a break will make it again.

The stage starts with a 12 km descent from Télégraphe before the riders take on Mont Cenis, this time from the side the descended on Stage 15. That means the climb is only 10 km long but it still has an average gradient of 7%. The race got neutralized on Mont Cenis last time but hopefully we will get to see attacks from the very beginning this time. Stefano Pirazzi & Giovanni Visconti now leads the fight for the blue KOM jersey and even though both must be tired from Sunday’s effort, they need to stay alert and maybe attack again. Actually, looking at the stage profile, this is another very good stage for Visconti. If he’s ready again, he could make it two in a row.

Team Colombia and Androni have been very active, especially in the mountains, and with both Jackson Rodriguez and Robinson Chalapud fighting for the KOM jersey, I would imagine them to ride aggressively again on this stage. Rodriguez hasn’t been getting much out of his efforts so far in the race but if he manages to get in the morning break, this could be his big day. He’s very strong uphill and also fast on the line in a reduced group.

After the top of Mont Cenis, it’s downhill for 25 km before a flat stretch of 120 km. With 23.3 km to go the last climb of the day, Andrate, starts. It’s only a category 3 climb,but its 6.2 km have an average gradient of 8% and parts of 13% halfway to the top. There are 17.5 km to go from the top of Andrate and after a technical descent, the last 8 km are flat towards the line. The last few kilometers are tricky with sharp turns and parts of paves, so a lonely rider will have a good chance of making it all the way with a small gap on the final kilometers.

Andrate. 6,2 km with an average gradient of 8%

As said in the beginning, I think this is another day for a breakaway. It’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this one, but looking at the last few days in the mountains I see many of the Movistar riders with good legs. I’ve already mentioned José Herrada and Eros Capecchi a couple of times during this Giro d’Italia and I think this stage is perfect for both riders. Herrada has been attacking the last couple of days while Capecchi has been in the peloton looking after Beñat Intxausti. I’m sure both will try to get away on the Mont Cenis, and especially Capecchi will favor a technical descent before the line.

Team Blanco have launched ‘Plan B” after Robert Gesink lost his chances of a good overall place and they showed on Stage 15 that they are prepared to attack whenever they get the chance. Gesink, Kelderman and Garate all tried to get away on Galibier and I think it’s now time for Stef Clement to show the jersey. Clement has had a good Giro so far. He’s climbing very well and his fifth place in the time trial showed he’s in great shape. Blanco are eager to show their potential in the fight for a new sponsor and without a rider for the GC, Stef Clement can now try his luck on his own. It won’t be easy for him to drop strong climbers on Andrate but if he can hang on to the front, he can launch an attack on the flat part and then he’ll be difficult to catch.

Vini Fantini finally got their stage win with Mauro Santambrogio on Stage 14 and they will be eager to take another one. Danilo Di Luca is ‘only’ 14:44 minutes after Nibali in the GC and therefore I doubt the other teams will let him in the Top10 fight again with an early attack. Stefano Garzelli on the other hand is coming into shape and if he’s up for it, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage win. The same goes for Oscar Gatto, even though I think the climbs are too tough for him. Still, should it all come down to the last climb, Di Luca is a good pick for the win.

There aren’t any favorites for stages like this, so instead of tipping ‘Favorite’ and ‘Top3’, I’ll leave you with these riders as my personal picks for the stage win.

Jackson Rodriguez

Eros Capecchi

Stef Clement

Stefano Garzelli

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 16:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

This stage looks like a dress rehearsal for the World Championship in Florence later this year and like Stage7, this one has ‘breakaway’ written on its forehead. The route takes place in Giovanni Visconti’s backyard and with four categorized climbs, the Italian will be eager to both keep his KOM jersey and win the stage. As always, it’s difficult to talk about favorites for stages like this one but to me, Giovanni Visconti is the man to beat.

Vini-Fantini put in an amazing amount of work on Stage 7, but instead of closing the rest of the gap - they got it down form 7 min to 1½ min - they attacked with Taborre who already had been working in front of the peloton. Not exactly the smartest tactical choice by Luca Scinto’s team but I’m sure they are now ready for revenge. Danilo Di Luca, Mauro Santambrogio and Matteo Rabottini are all very good on these kind of stages and especially Di Luca looks very strong right now.

The last climb of the stage, Fiesole - which is also on the World Champions course - is only 2.9 km short but its average gradient of 5.7% and 11% in the beginning will serve as an excellent place to attack. There are only 10 km to go from the top of Fiesole and it’s a technical run-in to the line from here. The last 1700 meters kick up with 3% and after three tough days in the saddle, it’s important to have something left in tank for the final meters.

I picked Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez as my joker for Stage 7, but since Emanuelle Sella made the break rather quickly, Rubiano never got to place his hand. Instead, he has been waiting for this stage and I’m sure he will be eager to finally make the right breakaway. Rubiano is very strong uphill and he’s fast on the line too. The stage he won in the Giro last year is similar to this one and since Androni seem to be represented in every breaks this year, the chances of Rubiano hitting the right break are not bad at all.

Stefano Pirazzi is another good joker for this stage. He’s targeting the KOM jersey and with the four KOM sprints on the menu, Pirazzi knows this is a great day to attack. He hasn’t had much luck with his late attack so far in the race, but now he’s 7:49 down in the GC and no longer an imminent threat to the Pink Jersey. Still, Pirazzi needs to get away alone in order to win this stage since his not very fast in a sprint. Bardiani also have Enrico Battaglin, should the break be caught, and if they don’t manage to put a man up front, we will see them work hard for the Young Italian.

Many will be looking forward to the rest day on Monday but I doubt we will get a quite stage to watch. There are still plenty of opportunities to attack and with Bradley Wiggins having troubles on the descents, surely his rivals need to see if they can take even more time on him before the mountains. I doubt Vini-Fantini will miss the break this time and if they, Androni and Bardiani all get a man in the morning break, it will most likely make it to the line.

Also, look out for Eros Capecchi. He came to the Giro with big ambitions, but allergy problems knocked him out early in the race. The last couple of days have been better for him and this is a stage he has been targeting for a while. Capecchi is good uphill, uphill and he's fast. If he's having a good day, he could very well end up giving Movistar their second stage win in a row. 

Favorite: Giovanni Visconti

Top3 Pick: Danilo Di Luca

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chaves / Stefano Pirazzi / Eros Capecchi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 9:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

First of all, I’m glad to see my joker for Stage 6, Edwin Avila, not letting me down and taking 11^th place in the sprint. Impressive by the young Colombian!

Now let’s look at Stage 7. This stage has ’breakaway’ written all over it. The profiles looks like bread knife and this leg breaking stage will tire out many riders before the demanding time trial on Saturday. Bradley Wiggins will probably hope for a quiet stage but for guys like Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal, this is a good opportunity to gain a little time before the expected massacre against the clock.

Looking at the stage, the first two names I thought of was Giovanni Visconti and Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez. Visconti is an expert in these kind of stages and Rubiano knows these roads very well. Troffeo Matteotti starts and ends in Pescara and Rubiano has taking podium twice within the last three years. The Colombian climber spent most of Stage 6 as the very last man in the peloton, where he got some TV-time for amazing bike skills avoiding the big crash with 30 km to go. Visconti also found his way to the TV-cameras at that crash, but unfortunately for sitting on the ground with a sore hip. The former Italian Champion went to hospital after the stage and even though nothing is broken, he may find it too difficult to perform at this best level. That being said, if Giovanni Visconti is ready after his crash, he's one of the biggest favorites for this stage.

There are four KOM sprint within the last 50 km and it will be huge surprise if Stefano Pirazzi doesn’t try something on this stage. He’s in great shape right now, he’s targeting the KOM jersey and he’s not afraid of attacking at any point.

The steep parts of 20% around Chieti are known from Tirreno-Adriatico and Cadel Evans and Vincenzo Nibali always do well here. There are still 35 km to go from the top of the last hills in Chieti, but the final two categorized climbs are very steep too - 18% and 14% - and if Hesjedal, Nibali and others want to gain time on Wiggins, this is where they have to attack.

I think the following list of riders will be good candidates for a morning breakaway. Especially Matteo Rabottini will be eager to show himself in his hometown Pescara. The time shows how many minutes they are after Luca Paolini in the GC:

Rabottini	08:56
Locatelli	09:09
Rubiano	09:19
Dupont	09:39
Pantano	10:26
Salerno	11:35
Marcato	14:15
Rodriguez	17:15
Georges	25:49
Pozzato	28:10
Gatto	32:56
Lastras	37:14
Taborre	37:39

Katusha will be eager to keep the Pink Jersey one more day and it’s not impossible that the morning break will get caught on the finals climbs - even though I doubt it if it includes strong riders. Should it end with a fight between the GC riders anyway,  look out for Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio. I said in my Overall Preview that Cadel Evans would take a stage in this year’s Giro, and this could very well be that stage.

Also, look pay attention to Danilo Di Luca. The self-proclaimed “Killer” seems to be in good shape already and if it all comes back together, he’s definitely one the peloton can’t let get too much of a gap. Vini-Fantini have a team full of good riders for these kind of stages and they should be represented with strong riders in the front of the race at all time during this stage.

Thursday, I talked with team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio about this stage and here are his thoughts:

“This year, the Giro d’Itlaia is different. Usually, the peloton lets the breaks get away and fight for the win, but with everybody wanting to gain seconds, it’s not happening this year. Anyway, we - like many others -want to attack on this stage. It’s a very difficult stage and we know it won’t be easy to get the stage win. There are many teams without a GC leader and they will all try to take a stage win. Our plan is to protect Pellizotti & Rosa and keep them in the front of the peloton and to attack with riders like Rubiano, Rodriguez and Felline.”

Favorite: Cadel Evans
Top3: Giovanni Visconti

Jokers: Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez / Stefano Pirazzi / Danilo Di Luca 

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 7:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv