Tour de France: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage for the pure sprinters and the peloton shouldn’t have any problems bringing back a morning breakaway. We are in for another fight between the best sprinters in the world and hopefully we won’t see any crashes.

The Route

The 176.5 km from Aix-En-Provence to Montpellier only include a tiny climb and from its top, there are still over 100 km to go. The biggest threat today is therefore the crosswind which they riders will be battling the whole stage.

If the wind is as strong as expected, a couple of teams could really blow the race a part and the all the GC riders will have to stay in front. That means it will be a fast stage and together with high temperatures it won’t an easy day in the saddle. Not at all!

The final 9 km of the stage. 

The Finish

The finish is very easy and there is not much so say about it. Entering Montpellier the peloton only has to tackle one difficult corner the last 8 km. With 2.5 km to go the riders turn left into the tail wind and from here on it’s more or less straight out the way towards the line.

The Favorites

This is a surely a finish for big sprinters like Greipel and Kittel. Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the two best lead out trains in the world and it will be a furious fight to take the lead on the final kilometers. Argos timed it perfectly on Stage 1 - not knowing about the bus-situation, just focusing on their plan - and I think they will end up in front on the final two kilometers. In Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers, Marcel Kittel has an extraordinary lead out and he will be eager for revenge after his crash on Stage 5.

With riders like Kittel and Greipel it’s all about who’s team ends up in front when it counts. Kittel has a strong lead out train but Andre Greipel does too. The German Champion can count on support from Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson and if Lotto-Belisol gets the lead, it will be Greipel who will be difficult to pass.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lead out train as strong as he used to. Still with Tony Martin to set the pace and Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans to lead him out, he showed on Stage 5 that it’s all he needs. Omega Pharma Quickstep were outstanding in the final and no one came close to beating Cavendish on the line. From the helicopter view it seemed like Peter Sagan was able to match Cavendish’ speed but once again Sagan didn’t position himself well. It would have been a close call had Sagan been on Cavendish’ wheel and hopefully we will see them go head to head soon again.

The Jokers

I’ve named Alexander Kristoff as a joker the last couple of years but I doubt he fits that category anymore. The big Norwegian has been on fire this season and don’t be surprised to see him make Top3 again on this stage. Another joker I’ve used before is Danny Van Poppel. The Vacansoleil-DCM sprinter is the youngster rider to take part in the Tour since WWII. Many doubted if Van Poppel was strong enough to be in the mix but he showed on Stage 1 that he is. He took third place in the sprint and I think he will be up there again this time. It’s true many of the top sprinters didn’t contest in that sprint but even with a full peloton I think Danny Van Poppel has what it takes to make another great result. It won’t be easy to beat the big sprinters but I wouldn’t rule out Top5 on a good day.

It’s hard to not pick Mark Cavendish as the big favorite after his - and his team’s - performance on Stage 5. Also, if the race gets blown a part, Omega Pharma Quickstep shouldn’t be one of the teams left behind. They have a big part of their Classic team here and they will be able to take advantage of it. However, the way I see, Argos-Shimano have the best lead out train in the race. If they can take the front - and keep it - with 3 km to go, Marcel Kittel will extremely difficult to pass with Tom Veelers leading him out. If anyone can do it though, it’s Mark Cavendish.

Another joker for the stage is Ramunas Navardauskas. If we end up with echelons, I would imagine Navardauskas to be in the front group. He’s not going to outsprint Mark Cavendish but if some of the big favorites are caught behind, he might be able to do top3.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3: Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel / Ramunas Navardauskas

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 6:

Giro d'Italia: Stage 18 Preview & Favorites

It’s uncertain what the following two big mountain stages will look like so the GC riders need to take as much time as possible in this uphill time trial.

Many talk about this stage as a ‘mountain time trial’ but that isn’t really accurate. It’s uphill yes, but it’s nothing like the mountains time trials we have seen in the past on Plan de Corones or Alpe d’Huez. The first 1.5 km are flat and then the climb starts with 6.6% average for the following 7.5 km. From here on it’s almost flat for 5 km with a little descent and a short ascent and this is where time trial specialists will be able to gain a lot of time on the tiny climbers.

The final 6.4 km are uphill with an average gradient of about 7% and parts of 10% with 5 km to go. It’s important to have something left in the tank for this final part of the stage and this late in the race, I’m sure we will see some surprising results.

The big favorite for the stage win is Vincenzo Nibali. He has been the best rider in the mountains so far and generally the strongest rider in the race. He did great in the first long time trial when he took 4^th place and without Wiggins, Nibali is the man to beat. Cadel Evans is another one of the contenders for the stage win but he if he couldn’t beat Nibali in a long ‘flat’ time trial, I don’t see him beating Nibali uphill either. Both Evans and Nibali have been out training on the course earlier this year and both agree that it’s going to be a high pace start of the climb. The riders with big engines who are good on the uphill parts will be able to do great in this time trial and I think Team Blanco will do well.

The Dutch team have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and they really want that stage win that will save their Giro d’Italia. Robert Gesink was close the other day and so was Wilco Kelderman the day before that. Both Gesink and Kelderman are strong against the clock - especially with so many uphill kilometers - and together with Stef Clement, who took 5^th place in the first time trial, they have three very strong contenders for the stage win.

My personal outsider for the win is Dario Cataldo. He started out great with the win in the team time trial but then he got sick. It took many days for Cataldo to get better but now he finally seems to be back at this best. He’s been good in the mountains the last couple of days helping out Uran and Henao but he’s also been able to save himself for this stage. Cataldo is the Italian Time Trial Champion and he will be eager to show off that jersey in the Giro. Winning may be too much to ask of Cataldo after his sickness but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a great stage and made Top3. The favorites have been testing each other the last couple of days in horrible weather conditions and anyone who has been able to save some energy will have an advantage on this stage.

For other outsiders look to Ramunas Navardauskas and Tanel Kangert. Both are in the shape of their life and good against the clock. The same goes for Giovanni Visconti. He has already won two stage in this Giro d’Italia but that doesn’t mean he’s done winning. Visconti has never been better than right now and with his newfound strong mentality, he should have what it takes to win time trial soon. The last days’ impressive efforts will not favor him but he should be in for another good performance.

Favorite: Vincenzo Nibali

Top3 Pick: Cadel Evans

Jokers: Dario Cataldo / Stef Clement / Ramunas Navardauskas

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 18:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv