Giro d'Italia: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

There aren’t many chances for the pure sprinters in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this is surely one they can’t afford to miss out on. The stage is only 134 km and despite a couple of small steep hills, this will most likely end up in a mass sprint. There are only 40 km to the finish line from the top of the last climb, Santa Maria della Vittoria but even though it has parts of 14%, the sprinters should be able to make it back to the peloton.

John Degenkolb is already out of the race and that mean Argos-Shimano probably won’t line up their leadout train as they have done in the previous sprint stages. This gives more room for GreenEdge and Cannondale to take the front but the many sharp turns in the last 10 km will make it difficult to control the sprint. The final kilometer is straight out and if Quickstep manage to hit the front with Trentin and Steegmans here, no one will pass Mark Cavendish before the line.

Elia Viviani seems to be targeting the Red Jersey - hence his attack on the mountain stage the other day - and he’s been very consistent in the sprints so far. The bendy run-in isn’t exactly in his favor but if he can keep the wheel of Cavendish, I think he will make Top3 again and pass Cadel Evans. Still, if Mark Cavendish ends in front of Viviani - in Top3 - he will take the Red Jersey from Evans.

If anyone is to beat Mark Cavendish I think it will be Nacer Bouhanni. The French Champion seems to be back in shape again and he finished very fast on Stage 6. FDJ messed up their leadout on this stage and that cost Bouhanni at least a podium spot. I’m sure Bouhanni and the team are very eager to make up for that, and if Bouhanni manages to get on Cavendish’s wheel - or whoever ends up having the final lead out - he will be very difficult to keep behind.

As I said the last time we had a mass sprint, it’s very difficult to pick a joker since all the sprinters have a solid chance of Top3. I picked the yYoung Colombian Edwin Avila and he delivered as expected. I think Avila will make Top10 this time but to picker another joker, I’ll say Robert Hunter. Despite Hesjedal’s downfall, the moral must be good at Garmin after Navardauskas’ impressive stage win and with a little bit of luck, Hunter might even make podium Stage 12. He hasn’t been lucky so far and he’s been making mistakes of leaving too much room in front of him in the sprints. Guys like Ferrari and Gavazzi will always try to exploit these rooms but if Hunter manages to stay close to the right wheel, he should have a chance of making a good result.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 Pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Joker: Robert Hunter

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 12:



For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After three tough days, it’s now time for the sprinters. It’s a short stage, only 169 km, and it’s pancake flat. Pure sprinters like Mark Cavendish, Mattia Gavazzi and Francesco Chicchi have had some very difficult days on the bike, but now they have a chance to get their saying. Especially Chicchi and Gavazzi will be eager to get a good result after they both crashed on Stage 1.

The stage ends with two laps of 16.3 km in Margherita di Savoia. Stage 5 ended up in a big crash in the last corner with 1 km to go, but with the last three kilometers straight out this time, we should get a regular power sprint with all the big leadout trains lining up their guns.

Mark Cavendish is the big favorite. He showed on Stage 1 that he wins just as easily with a broken leadout as he does when everything goes smoothly, and it’s difficult not to see him winning this stage too. He will be able to rely on Steegmans and Trentin for the final leadout and even though Argos, GreenEdge or Cannondale ends up in front with 1 km to go, Cavendish still has a kick a level or two above the rest.

Being a power sprint, naturally John Degenkolb and Elia Viviani will have a good chance with their strong leadout trains. Still, I think guys like Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi will have a solid chance of taking Top3. Bouhanni didn’t look good on Stage 3 and 4, but he was right up in the mix on Stage 5 before getting hold up by the crash. The French champion is a former boxer and he shows that on the bike too when fighting for the right wheel in the sprint. Bouhanni doesn’t have the same kick as Cavendish, but he’s very fast on the final meters and he can now turn his frustration from Stage 5 into motivation for Stage 6.

For Stage 1, I picked Giacomo Nizzolo for a spot in Top3 - he ended 4^th - but allergies could prevent the fast Italian from being at his best. The weather forecast shows a sunny day in the saddle and riders suffering from allergies like Nizzolo and Phinney won’t have it easy in such a power sprint.

The first sprinter to get dropped on Stage 5 was Mattia Gavazzi. He knew the climb was too steep for him and he didn’t even try to hang onto the peloton when he lost ground. Gavazzi is in great shape right now and I think he will give Androni another podium spot in this year’s Giro d’Italia in this stage. Gavazzi believes he has the speed to beat Mark Cavendish right now, and even though I won’t say the same, I do believe he will put up a good fight.

It’s difficult to pick a joker for the sprint stages this year since all the sprinters in race are solid Top3 candidates. Instead, I would like to point out Edwin Avila. The young Colombian isn’t well known - yet -  but I think he can surprise a little in this Giro. I’m not saying he’s going to win a bunch sprint, or even making Top3, but he can definitely aim for a place in Top10. Like many others, he didn’t get a chance to test his legs on Stage 1 due to the crash, but he was in the wheel of Chicchi (in the wheel of Cavendish) and that shows he’s ready. Teammate Leonardo Duque will probably also try to get in the mix and together the two Colombians should be able to get a good result for the team.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top 3 picks: Nacer Bouhanni & Mattia Gavazzi

Joker: Edwin Avila

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 6:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

We are only on stage three of this year’s Giro d’Italia, but it’s already time for the opportunistic riders to try their luck. The pure sprinters will have troubles staying up front on the 222 km from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea, especially on the last 80 km with a couple of climbs on the menu.

The first 140 km are relatively flat and a break should have no problems getting clear here. With 77 km to go the first climb, San Mauro Cilento, starts. Its 8 km with an average gradient of 6,5% will make it tough for the sprinters to stay in the peloton. Still, there are about 30 km from the top of San Mauro Cilento until the next climb starts. Sella di Catona stretches over 20 km but is separated by a short descent in the middle. The two uphill sections both have an average gradient of about 4% but the climb does kick up towards the top with parts of 7%. 

There are only 20 km to go from the top of Sella di Catona and if a small group gets away over the top, they won’t be easy to catch. Like the climb, the descent too is split in two, with a short ascent in the middle. The last 8 km are downhill towards the line and strong descenters like Vincenzo Nibali and Samuel Sanchez may want to test Team Sky and try to gain a few seconds. Especially Samuel Sanchez must be eager to take back some time after Euskaltel got their TTT ruined by a punture with 1,5 km to go on Sunday. Don't be surprised if Sanchez attacks on the final 8 km towards the line. 

Also, the last kilometer is very tricky. Coming down from the climb, there is a viaduct leading directly into a roundabout and this will stretch out the peloton a lot. After that there is a 90° left turn with just 400 meters to go. It won't be easy to gain positions on the descent, so you need to be among the first riders over the last top if you want to win this stage.

I think many of the pure sprinters like Chicchi, Viviani & Cavendish will have troubles on final hilly 80 km of the stage. Teams like GreenEdge and FDJ should try to set a high pace to thin out the competition for Goss and Bouhanni. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if a break makes it to the line. The stage profile reminds me of the stage Angel Vicioso won in 2011 when a small group got away over the top of the last climb before the downhill finish. Vicioso is in the race again this year and he seems to be in great shape right now. He’s definitely a rider to look out for in the final. The same goes for aggressive riders like Giovanni Visconti and Filippo Pozzato. Visconti took the KOM jersey on stage 1 and I’m sure he will be keen to hang on to it for a while. The former Italian champion is a real specialist on these kind of finishes and he can’t be given too much of a gap towards the end. Also, Giovanni Visconti is only 9 seconds after Salvatore Puccio in the overall classification, so a stage win will put him in Maglia Rosa!

Another rider this stage finish is perfect for is Fabio Felline. The young Italian has a huge potential. He’s getting stronger every year and he won’t have any problems on these kind of climbs. Furthermore, Felline is very fast on the line. He’s not a sprinter, but he in a group of 40-50 riders, there aren’t many who can beat him. The way I see it, Fabio Felline should be named as one of the favorites for this stage. He can both attack in the end and win a sprint in a reduced group. On Stage 1 Felline punctured in the final and in team time trial he had to change bike. If he can avoid more bad luck, I think Felline will be close to Top3 no matter how this stage evolves.

Personally, I would like to see Marco Marcato and Oscar Gatto try something on this stage. Marcato came out of the Ardennes Classics in great shape and he’s now eager to get his first win of the season in his debut Giro d’Italia. Marco Marcato has his eyes on a different stage in this race - more on that when time - but with his fast finish and strength on the hills, this stage too seems very good for him.

Last year Oscar Gatto arrived to the Giro a bit tired after a strong season start, but this year he seems to have timed it differently. As mentioned earlier, I doubt Chicchi can make it over the climbs so Vini-Fantini have to put their faith in other riders. Luckily for them, they bring a whole team of riders for these kind of stages. Di Luca, Rabottini, Taborre, Garzelli and Gatto all have the abilities to win on a finish like this but I think Gatto is their best card to play. He’s aggressive, good on the hills and very fast on the line.

As you probably gather from this Preview, it’s difficult to pick a favorite for a stage like this. It sure looks like a stage for a breakaway, but both Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss have the strength to make it over the climbs and therefore I guess one of those must the favorite. I pick the French champion.

Favorite: Nacer Bouhanni

Top3 pick: Fabio Felline

Jokers: Giovanni Visconti / Marco Marcato

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 3:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Vuelta Preview - Stage 2

It looked like an easy win for Team Sky in the opening team time trial but despite clocking the fastest time at the check point, Chris Froome and co. couldn’t keep up the high speed and ended up losing 12 seconds to Movistar at the finish. I think the Brits are eager to take revenge and the way I see it they have the fastest guy in the peloton to count on in the expected bunch sprint on stage 2. More on that in a bit.

First let’s take a look at the route. Despite it being a flat stage it’s up and down all day long. Not very difficult climbs, but enough to make it hard in hot weather. A Cat3 climb (Alto de la Chapela) is located with about 100 km to go and being the only categorized climb on the menu, we should get a good fight between the escapees to get first mountain jersey of this year’s Vuelta. The final 20 km is pancake flat and the last 5 km straight out run-in should make for a high speed finale. Still, this is the Vuelta and not surprisingly there is a roundabout with about 500 meters to go that could be tricky for some.

Last km - click for larger view!

My favorite for this stage is Ben Swift. The young Brit was devastated when he crashed out of the Giro on the day before it was about to start and he has been working hard in order to show the world what he can do in a Grand Tour. A month ago Swift won two stages in Tour de Pologne where he ended in the top3 in the other two bunch sprints. I have Swifty down to win 3 or 4 stages in this Vuelta España and I think the first win will come on stage 2.

Without any super sprinters the level is fairly equal and if the young French champion Nacer Bouhanni has something left en tank I think he could be up there too. I doubt he can win, but looking at the competition anywhere near top3 means the stage win is within reach.

Winner pick: Ben Swift

Joker: Nacer Bouhanni

---

To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Philippe Gilbet

Explanation: Picking Philippe Gilbert as a wildcard stage winner 12 months ago would have been ridiculous but more laughable now is the fact that the Belgian is still in search of that elusive win in BMC colours. PhilGil looked pretty determined as he led his team over the line in Pamplona and so perhaps he has the legs to try something in Viana, which has a slight uphill rise to the line. More likely, it will be a bunch affair and the Argos Shimano team of John Degenkolb took things easy on Saturday, perhaps with Sunday's stage in mind. Degenkolb is as swift as Swift on his day - and it remains to be seen how Team Sky treat the flat stages. Protecting Chris Froome may be the priority...

Here comes the youth!

P. Sagan - M. Kittel - A. Demare

If there is a color that fits cycling right now, I think it's white [no jokes on cleanness]. I mean white for the youth, like the jersey in the Tour. Looking at the recent results it's amazing to see so many riders under 25 in the top.

Especially the sprint finishes show that the up-and-coming riders already have what it takes to beat the elite.

Take a look at the following stages in Tour of Qatar & Tour of Oman.

Tour of Qatar: 
Stage1: Five riders under 25 in the top8 (best 2nd)
Stage5: Seven riders under 25 in the top9 (best 2nd)
Stage6: Six riders under 25 in top11 (best 1st)

Tour of Oman: 
Stage1: Seven riders under 25 in the top9 (best 2nd)
Stage 2: Five riders under 25 in the top6 (best 1st)
Stage3: Seven riders under 25 in the top13 (best 1st)

Riders like Marcel Kittel & Peter Sagan have already established themselves as the future stars of the sport, but don't forget youngsters like the two Frenchmen Nacer Bouhanni and U-23 World Champion Arnaud Demare as well as Italian Andrea Guardini and Russian Denis Galimzyanov. We won't run out of top-sprinters anytime soon!

Writing this piece there are still 3 stages left in Tour of Oman and I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these would have another winner under 25 years of age.

Update: A few hours after I posted this, Edvald Boasson Hagen won stage 2 in Volta ao Algarve. Another youngster who is already a super star!