Tour de Suisse: Stage 4 Preview & Favorites

Looking at the stage profile and then looking at the start list, this preview could very well consist of just two words; Peter Sagan.

The Slovakian wonderboy won four stages in last year’s Tour de Suisse and despite a steep climb on Stage 3, he still managed to win. Sagan came to the race after two weeks in San Pellegrino where he had been training hard in the mountains. He wasn’t sure how his legs would respond but I’d say his legs are just fine.

Sagan has Lucas Sebastian Haedo as leadout and his faithful helper Moreno Moser to keep the pace high. Moser was an important factor in Sagan’s four stage wins last year and after Sagan ‘let’ him win Strade Bianche earlier this year, Moser won’t mind helping out his teammate.

With riders like Matt Goss, Arnaud Démare, John Degenkolb, Ben Swift, Alexander Kristoff & Tyler Farrar in the race, Sagan isn’t the only favorite for the stage. Still, I think he will be very tough to beat. Sagan is good on the hills and the 3.7 km category 2 climb with just 40 km to go will be in his favor. The climb has an average gradient of 6.2 % and even though the pure sprinters will have time to get back in the pack, they will have to burn extra energy to do so.

The last 20 km are flat and with so many sprinters in the race, I think it’s safe to say a breakaway will have very small chances of succeeding today. One of reasons why I’m picking Sagan and not a strong power-sprinter like Degenkolb is the final run-in towards the line. There is a 90° left turn with just 200 meters to go and I bet the first rider into that corner wins the stage. Nobody handles their bike better than Peter Sagan - just ask Ben Swift - and even though Sagan may not have the fastest top speed, he accelerates quickly out of the corners. Arnaud Démare will probably come close but I doubt he will be able to beat Sagan. 

My joker for the stage win is Heinrich Haussler. IAM Cycling are riding on home soil and his is the most important race of the year for them. Haussler was lucky with the weather conditions in the time trial where he took 3^rd place and I think he make podium again on Stage 4. Haussler is in great shape right now and his moral is high too after he won the final stage of Bayern-Rundfahrt two weeks ago.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Joker: Heinrich Haussler

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.

TDU Preview - Stage 1

The first stage of Tour Down Under is a typical sprint stage. It’s only 135 km and that means we are in for another fast and furious finish. There is a few bumps on the profile, but only one categorized climb (Checker Hill Road, 4 km / 5% avg.) and from the top there’s still about 90 km to go.

The riders will get to know the finish line as the cross it twice before it counts and with the last kilometers on a straight, flat out road it will surely be a fight between Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano to get their leadout-trains in order.

Argos-Shimano seemed to have timed it perfectly in People’s Choice Classic but on the last lap the team fell apart and Marcel Kittel was left alone without a chance to battle against Lotto-Belisol. Argos-Shimano have always been focusing on making the perfect leadout-train and I think they are very eager to make up for their mistake in their first season on the World Tour.

That being said it won’t be easy against Andre Greipel who’s computer showed a max speed of 73,8 km/t  towards the finishing line in People’s Choice Classic. It’s clear that if Lotto-Belisol get the lead on the last kilometer with Greg Henderson as the last man before Greipel, nobody will be able to pass him. These days the leadout-trains are more important than ever, keeping the speed extra high and even though guys like Andrea Guardini and Arnaud Demare have an impressive kick I doubt they will be able to pass Greipel with a perfect leadout.

With the long straight out finish I can’t imagine Argos-Shimano or Lotto-Belisol not taking the lead and if so the way is made for Kittel and Greipel. Still I do believe Demare will have his saying too. He’s has been doing a little bit of cyclo-cross before heading to Australia and FDJ really worked hard to put him in a good position last Sunday. So despite being attacked by a koala, I still think he’ll be the best pick if the two big favorites strike out.

Winnerpick: Andre Greipel / Marcel Kittel

Joker: Arnaud Demare

Here comes the youth!

P. Sagan - M. Kittel - A. Demare

If there is a color that fits cycling right now, I think it's white [no jokes on cleanness]. I mean white for the youth, like the jersey in the Tour. Looking at the recent results it's amazing to see so many riders under 25 in the top.

Especially the sprint finishes show that the up-and-coming riders already have what it takes to beat the elite.

Take a look at the following stages in Tour of Qatar & Tour of Oman.

Tour of Qatar: 
Stage1: Five riders under 25 in the top8 (best 2nd)
Stage5: Seven riders under 25 in the top9 (best 2nd)
Stage6: Six riders under 25 in top11 (best 1st)

Tour of Oman: 
Stage1: Seven riders under 25 in the top9 (best 2nd)
Stage 2: Five riders under 25 in the top6 (best 1st)
Stage3: Seven riders under 25 in the top13 (best 1st)

Riders like Marcel Kittel & Peter Sagan have already established themselves as the future stars of the sport, but don't forget youngsters like the two Frenchmen Nacer Bouhanni and U-23 World Champion Arnaud Demare as well as Italian Andrea Guardini and Russian Denis Galimzyanov. We won't run out of top-sprinters anytime soon!

Writing this piece there are still 3 stages left in Tour of Oman and I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these would have another winner under 25 years of age.

Update: A few hours after I posted this, Edvald Boasson Hagen won stage 2 in Volta ao Algarve. Another youngster who is already a super star!

Another Aussie attack?

Australia showed off big time in the first two days of the World Champions with four medals in the time trials. Especially in the Men’s U23 when Luke Durbridge won in front of (Danish) Rasmus Quaade and fellow-countryman Michael Hepburn, who despite a crash managed to take the bronze.

Afterwards Hepburn told me that had only been focusing 50% on the time trial in order to be ready for the road race as well and like he said; “It’s always been more about the road race. I think the chances of a medal is good as long as it doesn’t come down to a bunch sprint since we really don’t have a pure sprinter on the team. Still we have one of the strongest teams and I will of course be extra motivated now after my crash here”.

So there it is folks…I know many of you probably will pick Arnaud Demare as the big favorite for today, but I go with Michael Hepburn! As jokers for the race look out for Spanish Jordi Simon and Italian Filippo Fortin. Should it end in bunch sprint Fortin is a very good card together with Dutch Jetse Bol and some of the fast Germans. Anyway I feel safe enough picking out Michael Hepburn to take another medal at these World Champions.

Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates and pictures during the race!