Showing posts with label La Montagne de Lure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label La Montagne de Lure. Show all posts

Friday, March 8, 2013

Paris-Nice: Stage 5 Preview

In lack of time, I have teamed up with INRNG to provide you with daily stage previews of both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. Originally, I would only have been doing stage previews for Tirreno, but thanks to this collaboration you will now be able to read about all the stages of the two World Tour races. The Paris-Nice stage previews are written by INRNG and can be found here and at www.inrng.com while all the up-coming Tirreno-Adriatico stage previews are written by me and feature on both sites too.



Stage 5 profile Paris Nice
The big summit finish of the race. The start town of Châteauneuf-du-Pape is somewhere to linger rather than leave. Once home to the Pope, the riders cannot stay because they have a meeting with heavens on the Montagne de Lure.
Will the race be decided today? Can Andrew Talansky cope? The answer is expected at 4.00pm today.
  • Km 47.0 – Col de Mûrs, 10.3 kilometre-long climb at 4.3% – category 2
  • Km 85.0 – Côte d’Oppedette, 7.1 kilometre-long climb at 4% – category 2
  • Km 123.0 – Côte de Saint-Martin-les-Eaux, 2.7 kilometre-long climb at 3.7% – category 3
  • Km 134.5 – Col de la Mort d’Imbert, 4.5 kilometre-long climb at 4.4% – category 3
  • Km 152.0 – Côte des Mourres, 2.9 kilometre-long climb at 4.9% – category 3
  • Km 176.0 – La Montagne de Lure, 13.8 kilometre-long climb at 6.6% – category 1
The Route
176km with plenty of climbing along the way but the six listed ascensions en route look small compared the Montagne de Lure at the end of the day. The visuals are right and the stats above confirm how gentle the route is although they each play their role in sapping the energy and motivating riders to go up the road to win points for the mountains jersey, currently worn by IAM Cycling’s Johann Tschopp.
Montagne de Lure profile
The Finish
The Lure is the smaller sister of Mont Ventoux and 13.8km at a gradient of 6.6%, flattered by a softer section in the middle before the final four kilometres rise at over 7% to the line. But it’s easier than Ventoux and significantly faster in feel.
Starting at St Etienne les Orgues the passage through the town is awkward with narrow roads, drains and potholes, this matters because the pace will be fast as teams try to place their riders at the front. The first kilometre is steep and means riders will be going out of the back right from the start. The middle section is fast, some might deploy the big ring on the 5% sections and riders benefit from drafting. Then it kicks up for the last 4km, the serious part of the climb. The gradient eases for the finish line becoming a false flat and the road is some seven metres wide.
Overall this is no monster climb to savage the peloton. It’s fast in places and should be tactical, don’t be surprised to see a lot of riders glancing at their bike computers every 30 seconds to check if they’re riding to plan when it comes to their power output.
The Scenario
There are at least two races on today. First the fight for a stage win. Here there’s a big cast of contenders but anyone hoping for a win has to be a good climber. If a breakaway stays away only those at ease in the mountains should win. But it’s unlikely a move sticks because several teams will set a high tempo towards the final climb in order to set up their leaders, thus reeling in any escape move. Still for the stage win, rather than going in an early move we could see the likes of Robert Gesink who are down on the overall but still hungry for a stage win. The Dutchman could be “allowed” to ride away because he’s no longer a threat on the overall. The same for Nairo Quintana who crashed yesterday but seems to be ok.
Second there is the overall classification race, a subset of the first group. There are 22 riders within 26 seconds of Talansky and given the time bonuses available, it means one of several riders just need to get a gap on Talansky and take the stage and they’ll take the lead. Of these riders, only Chavanel looks likely to drop out of contention. When the race visited the Lure in 2009 he was in the yellow jersey and lost beaucoup time but these days he’s been training at altitude and has improved his climbing. Still I think this is too much. But there are many names ready to pounce. Lieuwe Westra lost contact on the descent in yesterday’s stage finish and looked solid when he rode back solo to the lead group, he also won the “mountain” finish last year above Mende.
Talansky rode well to take the lead but looked isolated yesterday and we’ll see if he’s got the likes of Jack Bauer and Fabian Wegmann on hard for support. If not his best interest is served by a small group forming quickly so he only has a few riders to survey. Yesterday’s stage saw a series of attacks on the descent into St Vallier but this time any attacks will shred the group and only the strongest survive.
Weather: cloud and rain at times. Temperatures will reach 14°C (57°F) and a light breeze of 5-10km/h from the south is expected.
TV: Live video from 2.55 – 4.10pm Euro time on French TV and Eurosport and X marks the spot,cyclingfans.com or steephill.tv are where you’ll find the pirate video streams of the race.
History: the Montagne de Lure was climbed in 2009 when Alberto Contador rode away to win the stage but he later lost the race after running out of energy on another stage, prompting Lance Armstrong to tweet about Contador “having a lot to learn”, an early round of their proxy war ahead of the Tour de France. Things have changed since those days, for example Contador’s mystery coach Pepe Marti  from that year was caught in the USADA case (there’s still no verdict for him and Bruyneel). Fränk Schleck was second, Luis Leon Sanchez finished third and went on to win the race… but he’s now stuck at home as his Blanco team fret about his possible links to shady doctors.
Ride It: The sister mountain to Mont Ventoux, the Lure is worth riding up as it offers a peaceful experience compared to the busy ascension of Mont Ventoux where you might ride in the slipstream of cycling history but you also go into exhaust fumes and the stench of burning brakes and clutch plates from passing tourists in their cars. The Lure is trying to establish itself as an alternative, or at least an addition and there’s a “challenge” where riders can add their times to a list – currently topped by maxbouet, aka Maxime Bouet of Ag2r – and get a diploma.
Eat It: Drink it because the start in Châteauneuf-du-Pape rhymes with wine. The nearby Rhone valley and ancient glaciers deposited a bed of gravel which helps the wine, as ever poor soil makes for good wine. It’s also a big tourist destination for general holidays in July and August.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Paris-Nice: Favorites & Jokers

Right after the three Grand Tours we find Paris-Nice when we talk about the toughest races of the year. It’s still very early and eight days of cold weather, heavy wind and difficult climbs make it a hard race to win. 

Last year Bradley Wiggins came as the big favorite and won. This year it’s very open! Looking at the start list, I see at least four riders with an equal chance of winning. Let’s take a look at them.

Tejay van Garderen has already shown good shape in San Luis and despite the last time trial being on Col d’Eze and not a flat one, I would be very surprised not to see the young American on the final podium. BMC have a strong team of riders to protect TJ on the flat - and windy - stages and according to TJ himself he’s climbing very well these days. It will be difficult for TJ to stay with the pure climbers like Robert Gesink and Nairo Quintana on the final climb on stage 5, but he shouldn’t lose more than he can take back in the time trial. Of course he can’t afford to lose a minute or more, but if he can minimize his time lose to 30-45 seconds I think he’ll end up winning the race.

For Robert Gesink it’s the complete opposite scenario. He needs to gain as much time as possible on the climb and then hope its’ enough to keep strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra behind him in the GC. Blanco have sent a strong team to support Gesink and especially Kelderman and Kruijswijk will be vital on stage 5. Alberto Contador managed to distance number two (Fränk Schleck) with almost a minute on La Montagne de Lure  in 2009 and Gesink probably needs to do the same if he wants to win overall. Together with Nario Quintana he’s my favorite for the stage win that day, but will it be enough?

While TJ needs to minimize the gap on the climb and Gesink needs to minimize the gap on the time trial, I think Andrew Talansky could be the full package. Talansky is strong on the climbs and the uphill time trial suits him perfectly. He has had a great winter season and he always gets better when the rest of the field are getting tired. Talansky was less than a second from beating Bradley Wiggins in the time trial in Tour de Romandie last year and he distanced Robert Gesink on most of the tough climbs in the Vuelta. If Talansky comes to the last three stages without any bad luck or time losses, he will be very difficult to beat, I reckon.

If anybody can beat him though, it’s Lieuwe Westra. The Vancasoleil captain got a big breakthrough in Paris-Nice last year where he won on Mende and finished second on the Col d’Eze time trial (just two seconds behind Wiggins) and according to Westra he’s actually feeling stronger this year. The big question here is if Westra can keep up with the best on La Montagne de Lure. On a good day, he shouldn’t lose more time than he can get back in the time trial, but if he doesn’t have one of his best days, I’m afraid he can only fight for the lower spots on the podium.

The last couple of years I’ve been praising Rein Taaramae but being sick just a few weeks before the race, I doubt he will do much damage. That doesn’t mean Cofidis won’t be in the front though. Buying in new strong riders to help Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff couldn’t effort to keep Daniel Navarro at his current salary, so instead he went to try his luck as team leader of Cofidis. So far it’s been one of the best decisions in Navarro’s career as he has started out the season in a great way.  He stayed with the best on the climbs in Ruta del Sol where he finished 10th overall and just a few days later he won Vuelta a Murcia. Navarro is not good in the wind, but if he can manage to position himself up front in the flat stages and come to mountain stage without a significant time loss I think he can do some real damage. The climbs in this race suits him very well and he really likes Col d’Eze too. Last year he surprise quite a few - myself included - when he finished 11th on the that time trial and being a lot stronger this year and having to prove himself as team leader, I think Navarro is set for minimum top5 overall.

Before ending this preview, I would like to point out Nairo Quintana again. I know I already said it many times last year, but this guy is a future Grand Tour winner. He makes the toughest climbs look like nothing and I won’t hesitate to pick him to win stage 5. If Quintana really has a great day he can distance the rest of the field with about a minute on this stage and if he can attack Col d’Eze the same way he actually has a chance of winning this race overall. The way I see it, Nairo Quintana can either win Paris-Nice of end around top5-10. With strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra, winning might be too much to ask for, but I’m sure Quintana will show you why he needs to be mention among the race favorites.

As always, I have a few jokers too. First up is Ion Izagirre. The Basque fighter showed in the Giro last year that is to be taking seriously and he has started out this season in a very strong way. He finished 4th overall in Tour Down Under and put it some strong attacks in Ruta del Sol where he ended 15th overall. He can count on support from his brother Gorka and pure climber Mikel Nieve who also did well in Ruta del Sol. Izagirre is good in the short prologs and the climbs in Paris-Nice suit him just fine. He won’t win this race, but I’m sure you will notice him.

My second joker is Maxime Monfort. He was very close to winning Tour Med overall, but couldn’t keep up with Thomas Löfkvist on the steep climb. Monfort was also hit by the stomach flu that kept many riders from doing their best but I’m sure he will be ready for Paris-Nice. Last year he finished 7th overall and despite a significant stronger field this year, I still think he will finishi in close to Top10. The big climb isn’t too steep for Monfort and the final time trial on Col d’Eze shouldn’t be too much for him either. Monfort is good against the clock and he’s never too far off on the climbs.

Like I wrote in the beginning, the field for Paris-Nice 2013 is very strong and the race very open! I think the winner will be one of the first four mentioned, but there is a large group of riders ready to challenge them. Here I’ll try to give my view on the final classification:

1. Tejay van Garderen
2. Andrew Talansky
3. Robert Gesink
4. Lieuwe Westra
5. Daniel Navarro
6. Nairo Quintana
7. Richie Porte
8. Jakob Fuglsang
9. Denis Menchov
10. Ion Izagirre
11. Michele Scarponi
12. Jean-Christophe Peraud
13. Maxime Monfort
14. Peter Velits
15. Rui Costa
16. Bart de Clercq
17. Gorka Izagirre
18. Mikel Nieve
19. Simon Spilak
20. Sylvain Chavanel