Tour de France: Stage 13 Preview & Favorites

As expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well, shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.

The Route

Like Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after 112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.

The route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173 km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and they simply can’t afford to miss out.

The final two kilometers of Stage 13.

The Finish

Looking at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of 2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.

The Favorites

What Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny the strong German his 4^th stage win of this year’s Tour de France Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…

The sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far, they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.

Omega Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.

The Joker

As I said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Yohann Gene

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 13:

Tour de France: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

The Tour continues in Bretagne with a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. The riders start out in Saint-Gildas-Des-Bois and finish in Saint-Malo 197 km later. It’s the flat stage but the terrain is still up and down all day long. In the end, anything but a bunch sprint will be a huge surprise.

The Route

There is not much to say about the route. This is a typical transition stage made for the sprinters and with just one small category 4 climb, nobody should get dropped today. The only interesting factor is the wind. The last 25 km take place alongside the coast and we could see a strong crosswind splitting the peloton near the end. None of the GC rider want to lose any more time before Wednesday’s time trial and everybody wants to stay in front. This should make for another nervous finish and luckily the route isn’t very technical.

The Finish

Without a single corner the last 5 km, this is a perfect stage for the big power sprinters like Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Most likely, the final kilometers will be with a strong tail wind to keep the speed high and that means the leadout trains will decide the winner. The road bend slightly to the left with about 100 meters to go and naturally, you need to take the inner lane in order to win.

The Favorites

The final 5 km of Stage 10. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol have the two best leadout trains in the race and in a high-speed sprint, it’s very important to take the final lead. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are close to impossible to pass when they get to launch their sprint in high speed behind their leadout. Therefore, if Lotto-Belisol get the front; Greipel will most likely win and if Argos-Shimano get the front; Kittel should take the stage.

Lotto-Belisol timed it perfectly the last time and nobody could get even close to Andre Greipel. Greg Henderson is one of the best, if not the best, leadout rider in the world right now and if he gets to deliver Andre Greipel with 250 meters to go, I doubt anybody will be able to pass him.

A tail wind sprint does however favor the riders willing to take a chance. Few - if any - can match Mark Cavendish’ kick in the final and if Cavendish ends up without a leadout, he needs to open the sprint early. Mark Cavendish is so strong on the first meters that he can jump clear of another team’s leadout train and with a tail wind finish, he will be very difficult to catch, even for Greipel and Kittel.

It’s maybe too easy just to say that either Cavendish, Greipel or Kittel will win. Still, it all comes down to the final leadout. I think Argos-Shimano are eager to show the world the real strength of their leadout train and therefore I’ll pick Marcel Kittel to win Stage 10.

The Joker

This stage is going to end with a bunch sprint but at this point, we already know all the candidates. Picking a joker is therefore not very easy. The only rider I can think of fitting this category is Julien Simon. The French semi-sprinter (sorry Julien) did very well on Corsica but hasn’t been feeling great lately. Still, this stage takes place on his training routes and on home soil - in front of his family - Simon will be extra motivated to perform. Also, Julien Simon’s team, Sojasun, has its roots in Bretagne. A morning breakaway without a rider from the local French team will be just as surprisingly as this stage not ending in bunch sprint.

Favorite: Marcel Kittel

Joker: Julien Simon (or any Sojasun rider…)

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 10:

Tour de France: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage for the pure sprinters and the peloton shouldn’t have any problems bringing back a morning breakaway. We are in for another fight between the best sprinters in the world and hopefully we won’t see any crashes.

The Route

The 176.5 km from Aix-En-Provence to Montpellier only include a tiny climb and from its top, there are still over 100 km to go. The biggest threat today is therefore the crosswind which they riders will be battling the whole stage.

If the wind is as strong as expected, a couple of teams could really blow the race a part and the all the GC riders will have to stay in front. That means it will be a fast stage and together with high temperatures it won’t an easy day in the saddle. Not at all!

The final 9 km of the stage. 

The Finish

The finish is very easy and there is not much so say about it. Entering Montpellier the peloton only has to tackle one difficult corner the last 8 km. With 2.5 km to go the riders turn left into the tail wind and from here on it’s more or less straight out the way towards the line.

The Favorites

This is a surely a finish for big sprinters like Greipel and Kittel. Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the two best lead out trains in the world and it will be a furious fight to take the lead on the final kilometers. Argos timed it perfectly on Stage 1 - not knowing about the bus-situation, just focusing on their plan - and I think they will end up in front on the final two kilometers. In Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers, Marcel Kittel has an extraordinary lead out and he will be eager for revenge after his crash on Stage 5.

With riders like Kittel and Greipel it’s all about who’s team ends up in front when it counts. Kittel has a strong lead out train but Andre Greipel does too. The German Champion can count on support from Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson and if Lotto-Belisol gets the lead, it will be Greipel who will be difficult to pass.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lead out train as strong as he used to. Still with Tony Martin to set the pace and Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans to lead him out, he showed on Stage 5 that it’s all he needs. Omega Pharma Quickstep were outstanding in the final and no one came close to beating Cavendish on the line. From the helicopter view it seemed like Peter Sagan was able to match Cavendish’ speed but once again Sagan didn’t position himself well. It would have been a close call had Sagan been on Cavendish’ wheel and hopefully we will see them go head to head soon again.

The Jokers

I’ve named Alexander Kristoff as a joker the last couple of years but I doubt he fits that category anymore. The big Norwegian has been on fire this season and don’t be surprised to see him make Top3 again on this stage. Another joker I’ve used before is Danny Van Poppel. The Vacansoleil-DCM sprinter is the youngster rider to take part in the Tour since WWII. Many doubted if Van Poppel was strong enough to be in the mix but he showed on Stage 1 that he is. He took third place in the sprint and I think he will be up there again this time. It’s true many of the top sprinters didn’t contest in that sprint but even with a full peloton I think Danny Van Poppel has what it takes to make another great result. It won’t be easy to beat the big sprinters but I wouldn’t rule out Top5 on a good day.

It’s hard to not pick Mark Cavendish as the big favorite after his - and his team’s - performance on Stage 5. Also, if the race gets blown a part, Omega Pharma Quickstep shouldn’t be one of the teams left behind. They have a big part of their Classic team here and they will be able to take advantage of it. However, the way I see, Argos-Shimano have the best lead out train in the race. If they can take the front - and keep it - with 3 km to go, Marcel Kittel will extremely difficult to pass with Tom Veelers leading him out. If anyone can do it though, it’s Mark Cavendish.

Another joker for the stage is Ramunas Navardauskas. If we end up with echelons, I would imagine Navardauskas to be in the front group. He’s not going to outsprint Mark Cavendish but if some of the big favorites are caught behind, he might be able to do top3.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3: Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel / Ramunas Navardauskas

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 6:

Vuelta Preview - Stage 18

To be honest I’m still not sure how I managed to lose 3 (or 5!) points in my duel with Felix on yesterday’s stage. Tiralongo looked like a sure thing and when he blew, Valverde seemed to be able to catch Contador, oh well… Now it’s time for what should be the last sprint stage before Madrid and I would be surprised if the sprinters let this one go.

Nobody imagined that stage 17 would be as hard as it turned out to be and with that in the legs I guess the riders would be happy to let a few guys get away early on the stage. It’s the longest stage of this Vuelta España and even though it’s flat all the way from Aguilar de Campoo to the finish line in Valladolid it will be another tough day in the saddle.

Last 2 km of finish in Valladolid.

That being said, it does seem like the biggest obstacle doesn’t occur until after 204 km of the stage’s total 204,5 km. Right after crossing the river in Valladolid the road turns left in a 90° bend into a smaller road which means that if you’re not among the five first riders in that turn, you can kiss your chances of winning goodbye.

I think Argos-Shimano will take control of the race as we have seen before but I also expect Team Sky to help out now when Chris Froome isn’t gunning for the podium anymore. Ben Swift seems to be coming around again and even though it will be tough to beat John Degenkolb, I think Team Sky at least will try to give him a chance to do so.

It’s not easy picking a joker since there haven’t really been any jokers in the top3 in the previous bunch sprints but people are getting tired now and this could mean that Manuel Cardoso has a chance. I have backed Cardoso as my joker earlier in the race, without luck, but normally Cardoso gets stronger during the race and it wouldn’t be the first time the Portuguese champion takes top3 in a sprint in the final week of a Vuelta. Caja Rural already got their stage win when Antonio Piedre won the in Lagos de Covadonga and I hope that the euphoria on the team can give Cardoso the last few percentages he needs in Valladolid!

Winner: John Degenkolb

Joker: Manuel Cardoso

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Jan Bakelants

Explanation: What a stage yesterday! Shame there were no TV images of Contador's decisive attack - the early pace was so fast, the host broadcaster hadn't even got the cameras rolling. Bert's magnificent win was history in the making and a tactical masterclass. Above all, it was totally unexpected. To be fair, I had predicted the win for David Moncoutie and he was at least in the break. But my joker Rob Ruijgh spattered egg on my face when he withdrew shortly after the start. Spoilsport. Shows what I know - I even predicted no action from the GC contenders. Anyway, moving on... Today should be more straight forward, with John Degenkolb taking his fifth Yaaah! For my joker, I'll go for Jan Bakelants. The last rider to win at Valladolid was the late Wouter Weylandt and fellow Belgian Bakelants was a team-mate of Weylandt at Leopard Trek. It would be a fitting tribute - plus RadioShack could do with a lift. 

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Vuelta Preview - Stage 13

Purito made up for what happened on Arrate and leveled out the score in my ittle duel with Felix. Great. Now it’s time for another sprint finish and trust me, I won’t make the mistake of picking Ben Swift again.

John Degenkolb has shown to be unbeatable in this Vuelta so far and without many chances left - and with the desire of taking back the points jersey - this is a stage he can’t afford let go of. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu but as always in Spain that doesn’t mean there are no uphill sections. About 15 km from the line it kicks up with 5% for 2-3 kilometers but it shouldn’t really change the fact that this stage will end up in a mass sprint.

Only thing talking against it is Degenkolb’s superiority so far in the race. Like with Purito, no one really wanted to help out Katusha on stage 12 and that could very well happen for Argos-Shimano as well. The way I see it there are only two other sprint stages left in this race but even though the sprinters won’t get many chances from here on it will require a lot of confidence from guys like Viviani, Bouhanni and Bennati if their teams should start helping out Argos-Shimano.

Therefore you must not rule out the chance of a breakaway making it this time. There are some uphill sections in the beginning of the stage and I think it will be another fast start with everybody trying to put a guy in the break. Euskaltel showed on stage 12 that they are back ready to attack and it would make sense for them to send out a guy like Ruben Perez. He is good at picking the right breakaways and he is also very fast on the line. So far he has been sprinting to places from 10-25 in the previous bunch sprints but if he manages to get in the break he could go all the way in Ferrol.

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Ruben Perez

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John 'Jaaaa!' Degenkolb

Joker: Assan Bazayev

Explanation: The stage starts in town of Santiago di Compostela, the destination of the major Catholic pilgrimage route of the St James' Way. As such we can expect a likely attack from Javiers Chacon and Aramendia - although it hardly takes religious fervour to force those two out in front of the peloton. It's a tricky, undulating route, but given the lack of opportunities for the sprinters following this stage, I expect it to come down to a bunch finish. If that's the case then you can't really look beyond Degenkolb - it's almost as stupid as picking someone else to win on a punchy ramp other than Joaquim Rodriguez (as Saddles did yesterday - simply to allow Mikkel the chance to draw level and spice things up). While I don't expect a break to stay out, the final kilometres are challenging and there is also a difficult uncategorised climb near the finish. If someone attacks early, they could hold the pack at bay. That someone could be Astana pocket rocket Assan Bazayev.

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Overall score:

Felix 9 points

Mikkel 9 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Vuelta Preview - Stage 10

I guess it won’t come as a chock for you but I had Ben Swift put down for this stage on my pre-Vuelta stage winner paper. A lot have changed in the first 9 days though and I must admit that my statement about Swifty being the fastest guy in the race hasn’t really been as accurate as expected. That being said, don’t be surprised if he ends up winning in Sanxenxo!

It’s a classic transition stage getting to the mountains and even though it’s alongside the sea with a good chance of cross wind I think it’s safe to say it will end up in a bunch sprint. The last kilometer kicks a little bit uphill but not more than a few percentages and it seems perfect for John Degenkolb to take his 4^th stage win in this Vuelta España. Argos-Shimano have been outstanding in their way of setting up Degenkolb in the finals - even when Team Sky seemed to have gotten the better of them on the Motorbike circuit - and it will take something very special to beat Degenkolb this time.

Picking a joker for a stage like this is nearly impossible. A joker should be a guy no one expects winning (Swift?...) but in a sprint like this it will be the same 4-5 names we have already seen in action. I have to pick one so I’ll try Lloyd Mondory. The French sprinter is always up there around top10 and I have a feeling it won’t take long before he gets into Top3. He surprised me on Sunday’s stage in Barcelona where he managed to hang on to the front over Montjuic and took 15^th place and according to Mondory himself he feels better and better every day. I doubt he can beat Degekolb but if the cross wind splits up the peloton and Mondory manages to stay in front I think he could have a decent chance of top3 – which in this case you give me some much needed points in my duel with Felix!

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Lloyd Mondory

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To make this Vuelta a little bit more interesting I’ve challenged Eurosport blogger Blazin' Saddles to a winner pick duel during the race. You have my winner and joker picks above, here you have Felix':

Winner pick: John Degenkolb

Joker: Thomas Dekker

Explanation: The stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint and there's no evidence to suggest that anyone is good enough to beat Degenkolb and his Argos Shimano train in that kind of finish. Ben Swift's performances have been so off-key that I was almost tempted to throw him in as my joker - although Mikkel probably wouldn't have allowed that one (he clearly has a soft spot for Swift, having stuck with him on three - three! - occasions so far). Given the early Cat.3 climb, the likely crosswinds coming off the Galician coast and the prospect of Wednesday's time trial, a break could well stay out. Thomas Dekker, riding his first major tour since coming back from suspension, has been quiet so far. This could be the chance to remind the world of his talent.

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Overall score:
Felix 6 points
Mikkel 3 points 

Right winner pick gives 3 points, if the joker wins it's 5 points while it's 1 points if the joker makes top3 on the stage.

Tour Preview - Stage 5

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First of all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it will be another bunch sprint.

Favorites:

It would be easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the profile and the last kilometers of the stage.

Without a single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it. Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we are in for another dramatic day.

The last kilometers are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after 500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8 October.  On the profile it shows that the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before 700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish line on Boulevard Gambetta.

As of tonight (4^th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the  last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on the wet roads.

If you are looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter  for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a 4^th and 3^rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.

Winner pick: Andre Greipel

Top3 pick: Tom Veelers 

Tour Preview - Stage 2

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Despite two interesting stages with a lot of drama we haven’t really seen anything we didn’t expect. Fabian Cancellara won the prologue like he was supposed to and Peter Sagan did the same in his very first Tour de France - giving a special bike for Stage 2 with “Tourminator” written on the frame. I don’t think much will happen on this stage and anything but a bunch sprint will be a massive surprise, the way I see it.

Favorites:

The good thing is that for once we have a lot of fast guys who can actually win the stage. It’s not just Mark Cavendish anymore. Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel and of course Sagan the Tourminator will all have a crack at it. In the past Cavendish’ team has been taking responsibility early on, starting to bring back the break away, but that won’t happen this year. It’s all for Bradley Wiggins now and therefore it’s up to the other teams to take control. One of those teams are Argos-Shimano, team of the German sprinter Marcel Kittel and despite this being their first Tour de France, Argos-Shimano are to take responsibility. “We know we have one of best sprinters in the race, so we owe to act accordingly”. An impressive statement from a Wild Card team!

The final kilometers towards the finish line are pretty straight forward but not without two roundabouts within the last 2000 meters. Right after the gate to the last kilometer the road bends slightly to the left before the last 600 meters straight out to the finish line. Both Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have a strong lead out train ready to roll and I think whoever of those two taking the lead will bring their sprinter first to the line. Mark Cavendish normally doesn’t do well in the first bunch sprint in the big stage races and with only two guys to help him I think it will be a real power sprinter like Greipel or Kittel who takes the win.

My pick: Marcel Kittel to win Stage 2.