Tour de France: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage tailor-made for the sprinters. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel will go head-to-head again and the tricky finish favors the Manxman.

The Route

Without a single categorized climb, there aren’t much to say about this stage. The 218 km from Fougères to Tours take the riders southeast into the country and if you had to skip one stage of this year’s Tour de France, this is probably the one to miss. The intermediate sprint is located with 52 km to go and this will most likely be the only interesting part of the stage so far. If the wind is strong enough some teams could try to split the peloton but I doubt it will happen. If so, it will be towards the intermediate sprint.

The Finish

Contrary to most of the stage, the finish is very difficult. For some reason ASO thought it was a good idea to put in not one but two 90° turns in the last kilometer. The first one comes with about 650 meters to go and the second one with only 450 meters to the line. This means it won’t be a power sprint like last time but it doesn’t undermine the importance of the leadout trains. The peloton will be stretched out significantly in these two right hand corners and you need to be among the first four or five riders into the first corner if you want to win this stage.

The Favorites

The leadout trains are again very important but the tricky finish favors Mark Cavendish. Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel are both best when delivered in high speed but that won’t be the case in Tours. With the final corner just 450 meters from the line, the ideal scenario would be to enter that corner in second position with one leadout rider in front. Omega Pharma Quickstep messed up last time with Steegmans and Cavendish and they will be eager to take revenge. Also, some idiot sprayed urine on Mark Cavendish in the time trial and if he can convert his rage into power, he will be very difficult to beat.

The final four kilometers of Stage 12. Click for larger view.

Lotto-Belisol have timed it very well the last couple of times with 3 or 4 riders in front with 1 km to go and if they can do that again this time, Greipel should be up for another podium spot. It’s not a sprint that favors Greipiel much but if he enters the last corner with only Greg Henderson in front of him, he should make it three German stage wins in a row.

The tricky final also seems good for Peter Sagan. Nobody in the professional peloton handles their bike like Sagan does and he’s not shy of pushing to get the right wheel when he has to. Like Cavendish, Sagan accelerates very quickly and even though he’s not as fast as Cavendish and Greipel, he should still be able to make Top3.

The Jokers

I think I’ve already mentioned all the joker candidates during the Tour so we are back to repeating a few. I’ve been very impressed by young Danny Van Poppel so far. He’s the youngest Tour debutant since WWII and almost two weeks into the race, he’s still going strong. His leadout man Kris Boeckmans had a bike problem in the final of Stage 10 and despite the crash in front of him, Van Poppel still managed to finish 9^th. Van Poppel has a fast acceleration and if he gets onto the right wheel in the final, he could very well make another top performance.

Also, look out for Cyril Lemoine. The French sprinter will be on home soil and in front of his family and friends, he will be extra motivated to do well. Lemoine knows an early breakaway may be doomed but I won’t be surprised if he tries a late attack. If not, expect Sojasun to set up Cyril Lemoine for the sprint. He should know the tricky finish better than anyone else.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel & Cyril Lemoine

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 12:

Tour de France: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

This is a stage for the pure sprinters and the peloton shouldn’t have any problems bringing back a morning breakaway. We are in for another fight between the best sprinters in the world and hopefully we won’t see any crashes.

The Route

The 176.5 km from Aix-En-Provence to Montpellier only include a tiny climb and from its top, there are still over 100 km to go. The biggest threat today is therefore the crosswind which they riders will be battling the whole stage.

If the wind is as strong as expected, a couple of teams could really blow the race a part and the all the GC riders will have to stay in front. That means it will be a fast stage and together with high temperatures it won’t an easy day in the saddle. Not at all!

The final 9 km of the stage. 

The Finish

The finish is very easy and there is not much so say about it. Entering Montpellier the peloton only has to tackle one difficult corner the last 8 km. With 2.5 km to go the riders turn left into the tail wind and from here on it’s more or less straight out the way towards the line.

The Favorites

This is a surely a finish for big sprinters like Greipel and Kittel. Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the two best lead out trains in the world and it will be a furious fight to take the lead on the final kilometers. Argos timed it perfectly on Stage 1 - not knowing about the bus-situation, just focusing on their plan - and I think they will end up in front on the final two kilometers. In Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers, Marcel Kittel has an extraordinary lead out and he will be eager for revenge after his crash on Stage 5.

With riders like Kittel and Greipel it’s all about who’s team ends up in front when it counts. Kittel has a strong lead out train but Andre Greipel does too. The German Champion can count on support from Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson and if Lotto-Belisol gets the lead, it will be Greipel who will be difficult to pass.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have a lead out train as strong as he used to. Still with Tony Martin to set the pace and Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans to lead him out, he showed on Stage 5 that it’s all he needs. Omega Pharma Quickstep were outstanding in the final and no one came close to beating Cavendish on the line. From the helicopter view it seemed like Peter Sagan was able to match Cavendish’ speed but once again Sagan didn’t position himself well. It would have been a close call had Sagan been on Cavendish’ wheel and hopefully we will see them go head to head soon again.

The Jokers

I’ve named Alexander Kristoff as a joker the last couple of years but I doubt he fits that category anymore. The big Norwegian has been on fire this season and don’t be surprised to see him make Top3 again on this stage. Another joker I’ve used before is Danny Van Poppel. The Vacansoleil-DCM sprinter is the youngster rider to take part in the Tour since WWII. Many doubted if Van Poppel was strong enough to be in the mix but he showed on Stage 1 that he is. He took third place in the sprint and I think he will be up there again this time. It’s true many of the top sprinters didn’t contest in that sprint but even with a full peloton I think Danny Van Poppel has what it takes to make another great result. It won’t be easy to beat the big sprinters but I wouldn’t rule out Top5 on a good day.

It’s hard to not pick Mark Cavendish as the big favorite after his - and his team’s - performance on Stage 5. Also, if the race gets blown a part, Omega Pharma Quickstep shouldn’t be one of the teams left behind. They have a big part of their Classic team here and they will be able to take advantage of it. However, the way I see, Argos-Shimano have the best lead out train in the race. If they can take the front - and keep it - with 3 km to go, Marcel Kittel will extremely difficult to pass with Tom Veelers leading him out. If anyone can do it though, it’s Mark Cavendish.

Another joker for the stage is Ramunas Navardauskas. If we end up with echelons, I would imagine Navardauskas to be in the front group. He’s not going to outsprint Mark Cavendish but if some of the big favorites are caught behind, he might be able to do top3.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3: Marcel Kittel

Jokers: Danny Van Poppel / Ramunas Navardauskas

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 6:

Tour de France: Stage 1 Preview & Favorites

This is only the third time since 1967 that the Tour starts with a regular stage. On the two former occasions the stage was made for a puncheur (Valverde & Gilbert won) but this time it’s made for the sprinters.

Looking at the start list, it’s clear that we have [almost] all the best sprinters in the world in the race this year. Only Démare, Bos and Guardini are missing. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for many of the riders to take the Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France and we can expect a very nervous sprint. Still, I only see three riders with a solid chance of winning in Bastia.

The Route

Some say there aren’t many flat kilometers on Corsic - which is true - but there is no doubt that these 213 km will end in a sprint. There is a category 4 climb placed after just 45.5 km and that being the only climb of the day, many teams will be eager to win the first KOM jersey of the Tour. I would imagine a breakaway of 4-5 riders getting away before the climb and they should be able to get a good lead too. There are many strong sprinter teams in the race and bringing back the break in time shouldn’t be a problem. The intermediate sprint is located in San-Giulliano after 150 km. Despite a breakaway up front, the sprinters targeting the green jersey will have to show their hand and go head to head for the final points. There are still 63 km to go after the sprint so they have time to recover before the final battle.

The final 6 km towards the finishing line.

The Final

After turning right with about 5.3 km to go, it’s straight out for 3.3 km until the riders reach a roundabout with 2 km to go. This 180° turn will really stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point already. The last 2 km are straight out with only a few soft bends and the final 500 meters are slightly downhill. This means it will be a very fast sprint and therefore good for the big power sprinters like Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel. It will also be a very nervous sprint and it won’t be easy for the two Germans to keep their leadout trains in order.

The Favorites

Andre Greipel started out last year’s Tour de France in a terrific way with two wins and two second places in the first four mass sprints. Greipel has shown same strength so far this year and his leadout train is only getting better. With Marcel Sieberg to set the pace and Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson to lead him out, Greipel only has to follow one wheel the last 10 km of the stage. While many of the others sprinters are fighting for the right wheel, Greipel knows Henderson will deliver him in a perfect way. He has done so all year long and there is nothing that suggest it will change now. Andre Greipel comes to the Tour fresh of an impressive win in the German National Championship and he will be eager to expand the yellow color on his new shirt.

One of Greipel’s biggest rivals in the sprint this Tour de France is his fellow countryman Marcel Kittel. Greipel may have a strong leadout train, but I think Kittel has the best one. Argos-Shimano have been trying to perfect what they call “the best leadout train in the world” for three years now. It has been a long way and it has gone wrong many times but I think they will show their power in this Tour. With Tom Dumoulin, Simon Geschke, Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort and John Degenkolb (5x stage winner in the Vuelta last year), Marcel Kittel can’t ask for more. Kittel has been very strong in the mass sprints the last two months and he recently beat Greipel and Cavendish on Stage 3 of Ster ZLM. Last year a stomach virus ruined his Tour de France and now he’s out for revenge. He missed out in the German Nationals last weekend but back with his normal leadout train, I think he will be very difficult to beat.

The only rider I see with a chance of beating Greipel and Kittel is Mark Cavendish; another rider who just won his national road race championship. In the past, Cavendish seemed to have a “Stage 1”-complex but ever since he won the first sprint stage of Giro d’Italia last year, he has been “cured”. Cavendish has already been wearing many different leader’s jerseys in his career but he is yet to wear the Tour’s yellow colors. In the Giro this year he won Stage 1 despite a sprint that went anything but smooth for him. The bunch sprint competition in the Tour is way stronger than in the Giro but I still think Cavendish will win this first stage. When he put his mind to something, he very - very - rarely misses out. “This is the first chance for a sprinter [to win the opening stage] since the 60’s and I need to grab this opportunity with both hands”, he recently said. Both Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel have a better leadout train than Cavendish but none of them can match he Manxman’s kick in the final. For many sprinters it’s impossible to pass Greipel and Kittel in a high speed leadout but Cavendish has done before and I think he will do it again.

The joker

It’s difficult to pick a joker with so many strong sprinters but I would like to point out Juanjo Lobato from Euskaltel. The Spanish sprinter may not be well known on the international scene - yet - but make no mistakes; he’s very fast. This is the first season for Lobato on the World Tour and after a difficult start, he’s now showing great shape and matching results. He came close to the stage win a couple of times in Bayern Rundfahrt last month and he also made Top3 on the first stage of Tour de Luxembourg two weeks ago. Like the rest of the Euskaltel team, Juanjo Lobato had a horrible start to the Tour de France preparation with the death of Rufino Murguíal - the team’s masseur. Euskaltel haven’t had a good season so far and they desperately need positive experiences in this year’s Tour. I doubt Lobato can win against the other top sprinters but I expect him to show Euskaltel's name in the Top10.

Greipel, Kittel and Cavendish are all on the same level as I see it right now but having to pick only one, I’ll say Cavendish takes his first Yellow Jersey in the Tour de France.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Joker: Juanjo Lobato

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 1:

Tour de Suisse: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

On paper this stage may look like a good one for a breakaway to make but the final part isn’t as hard as it may seem. The profile shows two small climbs starting with less than 30 km to go but they aren’t very steep.

The first one, a 3 km long category 3 climb, has an average gradient of 6.8 % but with a strong tail wind, the peloton will be able to keep a high speed. Reaching the top there are still 5 km of false flat before the descent starts. The downhill section isn’t very technical and it will be difficult to keep the peloton at bay.

The road starts to kick up again with 14 km to go but the two kilometers towards the sprint aren’t steep at all. The descent only has one tricky hairpin corner and when the riders turn right on Seestrasse, it’s straight out for almost 8 km towards the finishing line. A lonely rider or a small group will have difficulties keeping a gap with a strong cross/head wind alongside Lake Zürich and I think we will see another bunch sprint.

There is a small traffic island just before the road bends right with about 200 meters to go. The turn is not as important as the sharp one on Stage 4 but if you need to be among the first three in order to win.

Once again, it’s hard not to pick Peter Sagan as the favorite. He won’t have any problems on the hills and with a strong team to support him he will be difficult to beat. Sagan didn’t managed to position himself well on Stage 4 and that cost him the win. On Stage 5 he was in the right position but ran out of teammates in the end. Sagan had to start his sprint too early and after two missed opportunities, he must be eager to take revenge now.

It’s also a good finish for a real power sprinter like John Degenkolb. With a head wind the last 8 km it’s important not to hit the front too early and Degenkolb probably has the best leadout train in the race. A couple of years ago Argos-Shimano’s mantra was to get the best leadout train in the world and they are close to succeeding. They didn’t time it well in the beginning of the season but recently they have been looking very strong. It’s true they messed up a bit on Stage, but I still think Degenkolb will be first rider into the last bend. Time will tell if that’s enough to win.

Since this stage is good for a power sprinter, it’s naturally also good for Alexander Kristoff. As mention in the preview for Stage 5, the Norwegian is very strong right now. He made it look easy when he beat Sagan and Démare on Stage 5 and his moral is now sky high. Once again, it’s difficult to pick between the three riders named above. Kristoff’s confidence is high now, Sagan is out for revenge and Degenkolb must be eager to finally show himself. If I have to pick one, I’ll go with Sagan again.

There are many strong sprinters in this race and it’s difficult to pick a joker with a chance to win. My pick this time is youngster Boy Van Poppel. He may not be able to beat the best sprinters in this race but on a good day, he’s up there fighting for podium. Van Poppel took 5^th place on Stage 3 of Tour of California and he seems to be in good shape right now ending 9^th on Stage 5. Vacansoleil-DCM have a couple of fast guys in Tour de Suisse but instead of sprinting for each other, they are now focusing on Van Poppel. Grega Bole has been assigned as leadout for Van Poppel and if the young Dutchman gets on the right wheel, he could very well make top5 if not more.

If it a breakaway makes it after all - though I doubt that - look out for Luis León Sanchez. The Spaniard is back after his short suspension and he's already in great shape. He attacked from a far and won the last stage of Belgium Tour last month and he could very well give a go in the final 25 undulating kilometers.

Favorite: Peter Sagan

Jokers: Boy Van Poppel & Luis León Sanchez

For live coverage check out steephill.tv.