As
expected, it all ended in a bunch sprint on Stage 12 and that should be
scenario again on Friday’s Stage 13. Let’s hope this superstitious combination won’t
send more riders to the ground as ASO once again have made the final, well,
shall we say “interesting” - more on that later.
The Route
Like
Thursday’s stage, this is another flat one. There is a small category 4 climb
with about 100 km to go but the 1.2 km of 4 % towards the top of Côte de Crotz will
barely be noticed in the peloton. The intermediate sprint is located after
112.5 km of the stage and we will see the peloton speed up as usually, which
should kill a breakaway’s chances of succeeding.
The
route takes the riders southeast and that could make for interesting racing if
the wind is strong. As it is now, it won’t be a factor though. With ‘only’ 173
km and a light tailwind, it will be a very fast stage and I can’t see a break
making it. This is most likely the last stage for the sprinters before Paris and
they simply can’t afford to miss out.
 |
| The final two kilometers of Stage 13. |
Looking
at the profile, there seems to be a tough climb close to the line. That isn’t
the case. The road does kick up a little but only for 2.5 km with an average of
2.6 %. This surely won’t be enough to drop the sprinters. The run-in towards
the finishing line isn’t very complicated but again ASO have decided to spice
it up with a couple of tricky corners on the last kilometer. First the peloton
turns left in a roundabout, then right - onto a smaller road - then right again
and finally left in a roundabout with 400 meters to go. These four corners mean
it’s very important to have one or two leadout men left before the final
stretch. The finishing line is placed on Rue Pelletier d’Oisy; a parallel road
to Avenue du Tour de France which seems like a more logical choice? Oh well.
The Favorites
What
Argos-Shimano and Marcel Kittel did on Stage 12 was simply outstanding. Without
Tom Veelers, Koen de Kort delivered Marcel Kittel perfectly on the wheel of
Mark Cavendish. Gert Steegmans did a great leadout for the Manxman and even
though he seemed sure to take the win, Marcel Kittel managed to come around
Cavendish on the final meters. Much like he on Stage 10, when Greipel seemed
sure to win. Kittel is right now the fastest sprinter in the world and if
Cavendish can’t beat him with a perfect leadout, it will be difficult to deny
the strong German his 4th stage win of this year’s Tour de France
Friday afternoon. For the first time this Tour, Marcel Kittel is now the man to
beat but I doubt he will crack under the pressure…
The
sprint ended early for Lotto-Belisol and Andre Greipel on Stage 12. So far,
they have been great at hitting the front at the right time but now it will be
more than difficult. Sieberg and Henderson - two of Greipel’s most important
leadout riders - both went down hard in the crash and like Veelers, they
probably need a few days to get ready again. Furthermore, Jurgen Roelandts hurts
his back again after another rider didn’t manage to break in time.
Omega
Pharma Quickstep did everything right on Stage 12 but Cavendish simply didn’t
have the legs to finish it off. Naturally he - and the team - will be eager to
take revenge but against Super Kittel, it won’t be easy. Peter Sagan seems
satisfied with getting third and fourth and I expect him to do that again in Saint-Amand-Montrond.
The Joker
As I
said yesterday, I’m starting to run out of jokers to pick. I’ve already been
through most of them and it seems like only Yohann Gene is left. Europcar have
been trying to set him up for the sprint the last days and Gene is getting
better and better. He has Kévin Reza to deliver him onto the right wheel and if
he can stay out of trouble, he should be able to do Top10 again.
Favorite: Marcel
Kittel
Joker: Yohann
GeneFor live race coverage go to Steephill.tv
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