The Route
In the
past, the stages on the French National Day were made for the breakaways. This
year it’s different. Stage 15 is the longest stage of this year’s Tour and
despite finishing on Mont Ventoux, the first 221 km are more of less flat. This
means it’s highly unlike a break will make it all way. It will be another hot
day in the saddle with temperatures over 30°c and after two hard stages, many
will hope for a quiet start of the day.
A
tailwind will help a morning breakaway get a good gap but the peloton will make
sure it won’t get out of control. The intermediate sprint is located in Malaucène
15 km from the bottom of Mont Ventoux. Since the stage hasn’t been very hard
until now, most of the sprinters should be able to fight for points for the
Green Jersey.
The Finish
 |
| The 20.8 km towards the top of Mont Ventoux. |
The 20.8
km towards the top of Mont Ventoux have an average gradient of 7.5 %. The climb
starts out quite soft with the first five kilometers not getting over 4-5 %.
From here on the road really kicks up with percentages over 10 %. It’s always
very windy after getting out of the forest into the moon landscape and this
year is no different. The riders will be fighting a headwind and this will make
it very difficult to attack and stay away alone. The last right hand turn
towards the finishing line is the final struggle of the day and with more than
10 % you need to have something left in the tank if you’re not already alone in
front.
The Favorites
The last
time the Tour de France had a stage finish on Mont Ventoux, Juanma Garate won
in front of Tony Martin after a long breakaway. Starting on Mont Ventpux, the
break seemed doomed but since Andy Schleck didn’t want to attack without his
brother, Fränk, the GC riders killed the stage and let Garate and Martin stay
in front. I don’t think that will happen this year.
Chris
Froome already has a good gap to his rivals and they need to take use of every opportunity
they get. Froome’s rivals simply have to attack and gain time and everybody
wants to win on this mythical climb. Chris Froome himself had his first - ever -
rendezvous with Mont Ventoux just two months ago when he went to test his legs
on the climb. Riders like Alejandro Valverde, Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and
Andy Schleck already know what to expect of Mont Ventoux and I think they will
have a little advantage on Froome. However, it doesn’t help much if they can’t
drop him uphill - and I don’t think they can.
The way I
see it, Chris Froome is the big favorite for the stage win. He lost a minute to
Contador and Mollema in the crosswind and I’m sure he will be eager to take
back the lost time time and show who’s the strongest rider in the race. Team
Sky are missing Vasil ‘Chloroform’ Kiryienka and Edvald Boasson Hagen but they
still have David Lopez, Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte to set the pace and
keep Chris Froome in front. It’s not ideal but it has to do. If not Froome, I
think the stage winner will be Spanish.
Movistar
will most likely make the race hard but they only have Nairo Quintana for the
overall classification. The Colombian super climber will probably put in a
couple of strong attacks but I think Froome will respond. He knows can’t let
Quintana get away. On the other hand, if Alejandro Vavlerde tries an attack I
doubt Froome will chase him down instantly. Valverde has good memories from
Mont Ventoux. In 2009, he took the yellow jersey in Critérium Dauphiné (which
he later won overall) on the stage to Mont Ventoux. Back then, he ‘gave’ the
stage win to Sylvester Szmyd but this time Valverde isn’t giving anything away.
Tour de France was his big goal this season and he lost it all when a rider
broke his wheel on Stage 13. Movistar are out for revenge and with a fast finish
- should it come to that - I think Valverde will be tough to beat if Froome is
just focusing on keeping the jersey. I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with
Froome and Valverde in front.
Also,
look out for Andy Schleck. He’s getting stronger and stronger every day and he
may have some unfinished business with Mont Ventoux from the last time he was
here. The headwind won’t favor Andy Schleck but on a good day he could take
another big stage win in the Tour.
The Jokers
The
French riders will be eager to get something out of this Tour de France,
especially on La Fête Nationale (Bastille Day). When the route was revealed
Thibaut Pinot was my first pick for the stage win but now I’m not so sure. He
seemed to arrive to the Tour in great shape but he had nothing in his legs in
the Pyrenees. Lately he’s been getting better but apparently he has some kind
of throat problems now. If he’s back at his 2012 level, he will be a dangerous
outsider but I doubt it. Pierre Rolland is another strong French candidate and
contrary to Pinot, Rolland seems to have great legs. A stage win on Mont
Ventoux will help Pierre Rolland significantly in his fight to keep the Polka
Dot Jersey and the other GC riders don’t have to worry about him. Rolland is
25:33 minutes behind Froome in the overall classification and he only focuses
on stage wins and the KOM competition.
I have
high hopes for Daniel Martin too. The strong Irishman has already won a big
mountain stage in this year’s Tour de France and he’s been “saving bullets” for
Mont Ventoux the last couple of days. Martin is 11th overall so he
won’t be giving a card blanche. Still, he won’t be the first rider Froome,
Contador and Mollema will start chasing down either. Daniel Martin says he’s a
big fan of the cycling history and naturally winning on a famous climb like
Mont Ventoux would be amazing. He seems to be in the shape of his life right
now and he has a strong kick too. I don’t know if Daniel Martin still fits the “joker”
category but if so, he’s my joker for the stage win.
So. To
sum it up: Chris Froome is the strongest rider uphill but may not have the best
team. Furthermore, his primary target is to keep the yellow jersey. Alejandro
Valverde is eager to take revenge and his Movistar team is very strong.
Valverde is now out of the GC and the other favorites won’t chase him down
right away. Not even Belkin…
Favorites: Chris Froome & Alejandro Valverde
Jokers: Pierre Rolland & Daniel Martin
For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv
Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 15:
Just to get you into the right mood, take a look at the Mont Ventoux stage from 2000 when Marco Pantani won after an amazing comeback and series of furious attacks in the end:
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