We didn’t
see a real fight between the GC riders on stage 19 but it’s safe to say that
will change now. With only 47 seconds between Contador (second) and Purito
(fifth), we can expect quite a show on the final climb.
The Route
This is
the shortest regular stage of this year’s Tour de France but with six
categorized climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The fight for
podium will be furious and we will most likely see tactically attacks right
from the beginning. Côte du Puget (5.4 km / avg. 5.9 %) and Col de Leschaux
(3.6 km / avg. 6.1 %) are both located within the first 18 km of the stage and
the heavy riders will have to dig very deep in order to finish this stage and
see Paris tomorrow. The intermediate sprint is up after 33.5 km but it will be
of little importance since Peter Sagan already seems sure to win the Green
Jersey.
After two
category 3 climbs the riders start on Mont Revard with 64 km to go. The 15.9 km
towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of just 5.6 %
but the climb is very steep in the beginning. There are still 46.5 km to go
from the top of Mont Revard. The descent is not easy and the last climb of the
day starts just 10 km after coming down from Mont Revard.
 |
| The final HC climb of this year's Tour. |
The Finish
The
final climb up to Annecy-Semnoz is very steep and there is only one tiny part
where you can catch your breath a little. The 10.7 km have an average gradient
of 8.5 % and this is where the final podium will be settled. You can lose a lot
of time if you have a bad day on this climb. There are not many steep hairpin
corners but the gradients are steady of around 8 % and with parts of 10 % near
the top. Remember, there are double up on the KOM points on the top of Annecy-Semnoz
and that means 50 points to winner.
The Favorites
I think
the GC riders will fight for the stage win today. Riders like Purito, Quintana,
Valverde and Contador are yet to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France and
even though the podium is more important, they don’t want to lose the chance by
giving a break too much of gap early on. The final climb is very steep and that
favors the tiny climbers like Purito and Quintana. Chris Froome will be happy
just to keep his yellow jersey and I would be surprised to see him go for the
stage win.
As it
stands before the stage, Purito is one with most to win. He is fifth overall
but only 47 seconds from Contador in second place. Purito has timed his condition
perfectly and he knows the final climb well after training on it before the
Tour. I think Purito and his teammate Dani Moreno will attack in the beginning
of the last climb - on the steep parts - and try to make an early selection.
Contador has not been great the last couple of days and if he’s not 100 %, it
will show already.
Nairo
Quintana has the White Jersey secured and he’s now gunning for second place
overall and the KOM Jersey. If Quintana ends first or second on the stage, he
seems sure to win the Polka Dot Jersey as well and honestly I would be very
surprised should the Colombian super
climber not make top2 on this stage.
The way
I see it, Purito and Quitana are the two favorites. I doubt Froome will go for
the stage and I can’t see Contador beating Purito or Quintana as it is right
now. Contador may be able to hold onto his podium place but it won’t be easy
with the shape Purito is showing right now.
The Jokers
Since I find
it highly unlikely that a breakaway makes it all the way for the third day in a
row, I don’t really see any jokers for the stage win. This is between the big
favorites and that’s the way it should be. However, should something happen and
a break ends up getting too far away, look out for Wout Poels and Arnold
Jeannesson. Both are out of the GC (29th and 30th
overall) but they have been looking very good the last couple of days. At this
point in the race, it’s all about who has something left in the legs.
Jeannesson stayed with the favorites for quite a while on Friday’s stage but
had to let go on the final kilometers of the last climb. Poels probably paid
the price for his attack the other day and since none of them can go with
favorites when they start to attack, I think both will try to hit the morning
breakaway. It won’t be easy though. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff, Movistar and
Katusha all will try something from the very beginning of the stage but should
a break get away, I would be surprised not to see at least one my two jokers in
it.
Favorites: Quintana
& Purito
Jokers: Jeannesson
& Poels
For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv
Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 20:
"I think Purito and his teammate Dani Navarro ..."
ReplyDeleteYou mean Moreno, right?
Of course. Been a too long day for me today. Changed now. Thanks for pointing it out.
ReplyDeleteHow about Froome trying to set up Porte for a win?
ReplyDeleteI'm the one saying thanks. Nice blog :-)
ReplyDeleteDon´t you think Roland, Nieve, Riblon would hit a breakaway, in the hope of receiving the Polka dots at the end of the day? It would probably require to get points on the final climb, but they are after all the best "climber jersey - challengers" so maybe the favorites won´t catch them in time? :)
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Rolland, Nieve and Riblon all will try to get away early but with 50 points to the winner, it doesn't really matter much. They need to do top5 or at least top10 if they take points earlier on. I think Quintana will make top2 on the final climb and that should be enough to win the jersey. But let's see :-)
ReplyDelete