Christophe
Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long
breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just
as hard for the riders.
The Route
We are
in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to
that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days
before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts
out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!
There
are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents,
the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the
middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top.
The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less
than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders
targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of
Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish,
riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if
they want to win the jersey.
After
the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb
starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s
not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of
Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.
The Finish
The last
70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg.
6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of
7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about
10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they
face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an
average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and
we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.
From the
top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few
tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday
evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up
things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong
tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on
the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the
stage win.
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| The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view. |
The Favorites
As hoped
for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They
failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead
of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the
overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2nd or 10th,
I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the
race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.
I didn’t
mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him
as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of
the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition
perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and
trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the
plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for
the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he
knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop
Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he
needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry.
Teammate
Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in
the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is
Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo
Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think
it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over
the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line,
Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the
yellow jersey.
The Jokers
I
mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still
hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right
now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two
first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is
15th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10
riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate
need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win
the Polka Dot Jersey.
Europcar
tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all
came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and
Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill
finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.
My last
joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez
and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi
himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very
well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19th
on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all
the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me
that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and
should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he
will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.
Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’
Rodriguez
Jokers: Thomas
Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi
For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv
Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19:
what do u think of Kwiatkowskis chances over the next 2 stages?
ReplyDeleteKwiatkowski has had a long and busy race, I think he looks pretty spent at this point. Definitely a man for the future, whether it's gonna be in the classics or in larger stage races. But the first week's action and busy chasing for Cav has taken its toll. Valverde is riding like a madman at the moment, he will knock Kwiat out the top10. Ten Dam will hold on to his 10th with the tip of his fingernails
ReplyDeleteNice job on this one, you mentioned Nieve and De Marchi and Navarro was a big joker for you since the beginning of this TdF. Keep up with your good work, highly appreciated!
ReplyDelete