First of
all. Crash or no crash it was a text book finish by Lotto-Belisol and Andre
Greipel in Rouen (as predicted and expected). We won’t know how much of an impact
the crash will have on the outcome of Stage 5, but what’s certain is that it
will be another bunch sprint.
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It would be
easy just to copy/paste my prediction from yesterday, because I truly think
Andre Greipel will take another stage win in Saint-Quentin. He has proven to be
the fastest and if Lotto-Belisol manage to time it as well as they have done in
the previous sprints, I can’t see who should overtake Greipel. Mark Cavendish
maybe? But it all depends on how banged up the World Champion is from the
crash. So instead of praising Greipel any further I rather take a look at the
profile and the last kilometers of the stage.
Without a
single KOM point up for grab a breakaway will be doomed and the riders know it.
Don’t be surprised if it once again takes 30 km before the first rider tries to
get away. A factor could be the cross wind we never saw on Stage 4 and if so we
are in for another dramatic day.
The last kilometers
are pretty straight forward. Heading towards the center of Saint-Quentin the
peloton rides on a two lane road and they won’t be presented with any real
danger before the last two kilometers. Shortly after passing the 2K mark the
road turns left with a 90* corner alongside the Saint-Quentin canal and after
500 meters on the waterfront it’s time to turn left again in another 90*corner
before going slightly to the right in the roundabout on Place du 8
October. On the profile it shows that
the last kilometer kicks uphill with 2,8% average but actually it’s not before
700 meters to go it’s start going uphill. Around 3-4% I would say and then it’s
flat out the last 150 meters while slightly turning left towards the finish
line on Boulevard Gambetta.
As of
tonight (4th of July) the weather forecast shows that it most likely
will be raining all day long. The riders will be able to take advantage of the
tail wind on the last kilometers of the stage and that should give us another
fast finish. Let’s just hope that the two tricky 90* corner within the last two kilometers won’t cause any crashes on
the wet roads.
If you are
looking for a joker go for Tom Veelers. After Marcel Kittel got sick Tom
Veelers has taking over as the designated sprinter for Argos-Shimano and so far he’s giving them a
4th and 3rd place. I doubt Veelers has the speed to beat
Greipel, but the uphill finish could suit him very well.
Winner
pick: Andre Greipel
Top3 pick:
Tom Veelers
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