This is a
stage for the sprinters. It surprises me that ASO decided to give this day to
the fast guys and didn’t throw in a couple of climbs so the French riders could
attack and hope for a stage win on Bastille Day - or La Fête Nationale as they
call it in France. Any attacks seem doomed on this stage, but I won’t go as
far as saying we will get a regular mass sprint. Because the race organizers have
been a tricky after all.
Favorites:
25 km from
the line the riders have to climb Mont Saint-Clair. You may not think much of this
climb, being just a category 3, but trust me it’s nasty! It’s just under
two kilometers long but the average percentage is 10,2% with parts up to 20% -
not exactly in favor of the heavy sprinters like Haedo, Van Hummel, Hutarovich
etc.
The beginning of Mont Saint-Clair. 1,6 km - 10,2 % |
Instead the
finish suits Peter Sagan a lot more since he is good at accelerating from low
speed plus he won’t lose any positions in the tricky bend. Sagan is also one of
the sprinter that shouldn’t be in trouble on Mont Saint-Clair. Actually I
wouldn’t be surprised if Liquigas decide to put pressure on the peloton to see
if they drop some of the sprinters before the finish.
If you are
looking for a joker, look to Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank and Danish Michael
Mørkøv. This year Mørkøv has shown that he really knows how to get in the right
break and you can be sure that he will try again tomorrow. Saturday it’s
exactly five years ago since his father died and Michael Mørkøv has said that
he wants to honor him by winning in Le Cap d'Agde. I doubt Mørkøv will be able
to pull it off, but I’m sure he will manage to show himself up the roads before
the finish.
Winner
pick: Peter Sagan
Joker:
Michael Mørkøv
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