Mark Cavendish and Team GB failed, despite a strong performance, to take
a medal in the Olympic road race and therefore it's now last chance for the
home soil favorites.
Fortunately the chances are also pretty good. Because if
Mark Cavendish was the big favorite for the road race (and he was!), Bradley
Wiggins is an even bigger favorite for the time trial.
Route:
If you think this time trial will be like the first one in the Tour de
France you better think twice and keep your money in the pocket. With a total
'climbing' of just 125 meters this 44 km time trial it's really just a basic,
flat one suited for the riders with a big engine. With only a few tricky
corners and a tiny 'hilly' section on Seven
Hills Road, riders like Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara would have had a
medal waiting with their name on if it hadn't been for their recent crashes.
One could argue that Chris Froome would be a good candidate for this time trial after his outstanding performances in the Tour, but asked by me about his chances Froome says that the course is too flat for him. "It's one for the the real time trial specialists, but of course I'll give it my all", he explains.
One could argue that Chris Froome would be a good candidate for this time trial after his outstanding performances in the Tour, but asked by me about his chances Froome says that the course is too flat for him. "It's one for the the real time trial specialists, but of course I'll give it my all", he explains.
Favorites:
German Tony Martin World Champion. |
Tony Martin had a terrible crash earlier this year,
when he got hit by a car, but still managed to come back and get ready in time
for the Tour de France. In the prologue he was on his way to a super fast time
but punctured in the final and saw his chances of a top spot disappear. Martin
then changed his focus to the long time trial on stage 9 but crashed again the
very next day causing a fractured scaphoid bone in his hand. Once again he managed
to get ready (more or less) for the time trial but just like in the prologue he
punctured and lost time to the best riders. Tony Martin withdrew from the Tour
after the time trial and has ever since been spending all his time and energy
on getting ready for this Olympic Time Trial - a major goal for Martin this
season.
In the road race Tony Martin was the only other
rider helping Team GB in chasing the breaks but after a great effort in the
front of the peloton - where he could stay out of troubles - Tony Martin
withdrew half way through the race in order to get ready for the time trial.
Tony Martin is super motivated to win an Olympic medal for Germany and hopes
that it will "help making cycling
popular again" in his home country. I think this course suits Tony
Martin perfectly and if the pain from his hand doesn't affect him too much he
could very well be the biggest threat to Bradley Wiggins.
Bradley Wiggins won the silver medal at the World Champions last year. Now the Brit aims at the Olympic gold! |
Bradley Wiggins and Team Sky won, as planned,
the Tour de France and even though Wiggins said he felt some fatigue in the
road race (who wouldn't?!), I think it's safe to say that it will be a massive
surprise if Bradley Wiggins doesn't win this time trial. At least the way I see
it...
As said in the beginning this time trial looks
pretty good for Fabian Cancellara as well but after he crashed (hard) out of
the Olympic road race I doubt he will be able to be at his best already. Still,
this time trial has been his biggest goal of the season and if Cancellara
manages to ride through the pain he should take a medal.
Outsider:
The way I see it there is one super strong
outsider that you simply must not forget! Sylvain Chavanel has been improving
his trial skills quite a lot over the last few years and has shown to be among
the best riders in the discipline this year. He beat Contador in the time trial
in Tour de San Luis back in January, won in Driedaagse De Panne where (at the
moment monster strong) Lieuwe Westra was beaten by four seconds and right before
the Tour de France he become French national champions and got fifth in the
time trial in Criterium du Dauphiné in front of super time trialists like Chris
Froome, David Millar, Cadel Evans etc etc.
Sylvain Chavanel has been among the best in all the time trials this year. |
I think you get the picture, but
just to make it even clearer Sylvain Chavanel took 3rd place in the Tour prologue
and 5th in the long time trial on stage 9. Unfortunately Chavanel got sick
during the race and after suffering a few days he decided to quit the race in
order toget ready for the Olympic time trial. In the road race last Saturday he
showed he was back at his best level and I honestly think that Sylvain Chavanel
will be able to take medal Wednesday afternoon.
Joker:
Gustav Erik Larsson started out this season in a
fantastic way for his new team, Vacansoleil-DCM, when he won the opening time
trial in Paris-Nice. Unfortunately the Swedish time trial specialist hasn't
been able to follow up on that strong performance. In the Giro d'Italia he did
well when he took 5th (in the prologue) and 7th (in the final time trial) place,
but in the Tour de France he didn't do much. Still Larsson did manage to put in
a good performance in the time trial on stage 9, before withdrawing on stage 11
due to back problems. Despite "feeling
like shit" the day before the time trial, Larsson finished 21st and
even though that might not be such a good result it still showed that the Swede
was about to find his legs again.
Gustav Erik Larsson always performs well at the big one day events! |
The Olympic time trial has been the biggest
goal for Gustav Erik Larsson this season and even though I strongly doubt he
will be able to win it you have to remember that Larsson really knows how to
peak at the big one day events. I think he will be in mix...
Winner pick: Bradley Wiggins
Top3: Tony Martin
Outsider: Sylvain Chavanel
Joker: Gustav Erik Larsson
Hey Mikkel. Me again :) I posted about the TT yesterday. My name is Daniel. Nice preview of the TT.
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to show you an online article that tried to model, and predict, results for the London TT using the Copenhagen World TT for comparispn.
Here is the site: http://www.cyclingpowermodels.com/OlympicTimeTrial.aspx
One thing that struck me was the graphs of the profiles for each event. The London TT course looks more like a mountain stage of the TDF when compared to the Copenhagen course!
Any thoughts on this?
Hi Daniel. I've seen the profile and thought about using it in the preview but I think it cheats the eye a little bit (a lot actually). The ITT in Copenhagen was SUPER FLAT, but even though this one seems to be very hilly, it's really not at all! It will be a super fast time trial for the pure specialists, which is also why a great rider like Chris Froome says it's not really a good one for him.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see how it goes though. We should be in for a good race!
Ok, excellent. Personally, I cant see Wiggins losing this...barring a crash...
ReplyDelete