We are
going into the last week of this year’s Tour de France and that with four
famous and feared climbs on the menu. Col d'Aubisque (Cat HC, 16,4km - 7,1%),
Col du Tourmalet (Cat HC, 19km - 7,4%), Col d'Aspin (Cat 1, 12,4km - 4,8%) and
Col de Peyresourde (Cat 1, 9,5km - 6,7%) show that the peloton now plays in the
Pyrenees and hopefully this stage will be
everything we expect it to be!
Favorites:
I’m a fan
of the favorites winning on the big mountains but since also this Tour stage
ends with a descent, I’m fine with leaving the victory to the escapees. That’s
how I think it will go anyway. Team Sky won’t be interesting in pulling back
any breakaways with guys more than 20 minutes behind in the overall
classification and for Liquigas (Nibali) and BMC (Evans) the only thing that
matters is the overall win. Therefore I’m pretty sure that a strong break of
10-15 riders will get away on Col d'Aubisque (if not earlier, then at least
here) so let’s try to take a look at who might be in that break.
The first
two riders I thought of looking at the profile were Alejandro Valverde and
Michele Scarponi. Valverde has been trying very hard to hit the right breakaway
the last couple of days with climbs on the menu and he seems very determined
not to leave this Tour without putting his mark on it. He’s far out of the
classification (32:59 minutes after Bradley Wiggins) so I think that Team Sky finally
will be okay with him getting in the break. Had Valverde still been near the
podium I would probably have picked him as well. This stage is perfect for him
since he can stay with the very best both on the climbs and on the descents.
Plus he is very fast on the line. For me there isn’t a bigger favorite for this
stage than Alejandro Valverde being at 100%.
Col de Peyresourde - 9,5km / 6,7% Click for larger view! |
Other solid
breakaway candidates to the win in Bagnères-de-Luchon are riders like Rein
Taaramae (out of the GC and strong uphill and downhill), Dan Martin (pure
climber and feeling great these days) and Rui Costa (if Valverde doesn’t hit
the right break, Rui Costa is very likely to do so and he already knows how to
win in the Tour).
Among the
favorites Vincenzo Nibali is the best pick. The Italian is excellent on the
descents where he has been trying to drop Wiggins and co. numerous times in
this Tour already. If the break gets caught, I can’t see anyone other than
Nibali winning this stage…
Winner pick:
Alejandro Valverde or Michele Scarponi
Joker: Vincenzo
Nibali
I made a pretty penny following your tips the last few stages so thank you. Just wondering who you think will take the polkadot jersey?
ReplyDeleteMy pleasure. The polka dot jersey is a tricky call. I think Kessiakoff has a very good chance of keeping it, but honestly everything could change tomorrow. Dan Martin, Michele Scarponi and other could sweep the points and get back in the fight. I think Chris Anker Sørensen will hit the right break again and if so, he has a good chance too. It's a crap shoot to be honest...
ReplyDeleteIt would be interesting if Liquigas or BMC would try to find out just how tough Sky and Wiggins really are. They can't afford to wait too long.
ReplyDeleteThink you can look for Kessiakoff going with the break tomorrow to max out his points yield. He's not gonna give up the Polka Dots without a strong fight!
ReplyDelete@swepete