Giro d'Italia: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

Stage 19 got cancelled completely and that means this is the last chance to change the overall classification. Vincenzo Nibali seems sure to win this Giro d’Italia but the final two spots on the podium are still up for grab.

Unfortunately, this stage too has been modified a lot and the first three big mountains have all been cancelled due to the bad weather. This leaves us with a 210 km long stage with only the final 25 km are kept as planned. A strong morning break over the big climbs would have had a good chance of making it to the line but with this new profile it all comes down to the final climb up to Tre Cime Di Lavaredo.

The first 187.6 km aren’t very challenging but hopefully we will get to see fire some firework already on the first climb up to Passo Tre Croci. This category 2 climb has a steady 7% gradient all the 8 km to the top and if the morning break hasn’t already been caught, this is a good place to finally rail them back in. As I wrote in the preview for Stage 19, I would like to see Lampre take charge and play out Niemiec early on. If he attacks on Passo Tre Croci, it would force BMC and Sky to work hard and without a strong team, Evans would quickly be isolated.

There are about 7 km from the top of Passo Tre Croci to the final climb begins. It starts with a steep kilometer of 10.6% with parts of 18%. Then there is short descent before the final 3 km kicks up with an average (!) gradient of 12.4%. There are parts of nearly 20% with two kilometers to go and the tiny climbers like Sergio Henao, Carlos Betancur and Domenico Pozzovivo will have a big advantage here.

The only leader’s jersey still up for grab is the White Jersey and with only two seconds between Rafal Majka and Carlos Betancur, we should be in for a great show on this final climb. Majka seems to flying right now but these steep percentages surely favors Betancur more than the strong Pole. I would imagine Domenico Pozzovivo to attack first and make the other riders work for the stage win. If they then catch Pozzovivo, Betancur will be ready to counter. Just like we saw it on the stage Uran won earlier in the race.

The final 3 km of the stage.

Samuel Sanchez came close the other day and he's still chasing a stage win that will see him join the club of stage winners in all the three Grand Tours. The steep final part isn't really in Sanchez' favor but he does seem very strong right now and he's always good in the last week.

This being the last mountain stage of the race, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it. The fight for second and third place overall are still so close that every bonus second count and Betancur also knows that he is faster than Majka on the line. Even if Betancur can’t drop Majka on the climb, he can still outsprint him and the take bonus seconds he needs. 

Many odd things have already occurred in this Giro and of course, it’s not impossible a morning break will make it. Androni have been in all the major breaks in this Giro d’Italia and I would expect riders like Jackson Rodriguz and Miguel Angel Rubiano to try again. Franco Pellizotti still aims at Top10 overall and with nothing to lose I think he will try to attack early on Passo Tre Crocil.

Movistar have been extremely strong the last week and even though their most important task now is to secure Beñat Intxausti’s Top10 place, I’m sure they will try to take their fifth stage win. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada and Juan José Cobo are all good contenders for an early break and I think at least one of them will make it.

Last, I need to mention Team Colombia. They came to the Giro with high hopes for this final week but with all the big mountains being cancelled out, they haven’t really had a chance to show their strength. Darwin Atapuma is getting better and better and so is Fabio Duarte. The little Colombian have been attacking non-stop the last couple of days and I’m sure he will try again on this stage. Duarte is good on the steep percentages and together with Atapuma, Colombia have a dangerous duo for the final climb. Also, the Colombian Sports Minister, Andres Botero, will join the team for the final two stages and if the riders weren’t motivated enough already, this should give them the extra edge.

Favorites: Carlos Betancur & Domenico Pozzovivo

Top 3 Pick: Rafal Majka

Jokers: Fabio Duarte / Franco Pellizotti / José Herrada

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 20:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

It’s time for the Twitter Stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia. This is the first real mountain stage of the race and celebrating the first finish ever on Altopiano del Montasio, the Giro organizers have painted 200 tweets on the final kilometers towards the line. The riders will be cheered for from all possible angles on this stage and we should be in for quite a show.

Altopiano del Montasio is 10.9 km and has an average gradient of 7.8%. The climb kicks up with parts of 20% near the top, but the final kilometer is almost flat. A bad day on this climb will cost you minutes, but we shouldn’t see that big of a difference between the favorites.

Astana are now the new commander of the Giro and it will be interesting to see if they will let the Pink Jersey go to a breakaway or work hard to defend it. Vincenzo Nibali has never had such a strong team to back him up as he has now, but there is still a long way to Brescia. It takes a lot of energy out of a team to defend the leader’s jersey and the Giro is now only getting started for real. Also, with 20 bonus seconds on the line, Astana will be happy to see a breakaway take the stage win. I doubt they will be working hard in front, unless another GC contender get in trouble.

This is another day with important KOM points on the menu and Stefano Pirazzi will most likely try to get in the morning break again to reach the top of Passo Cason Di Lanza among the first riders. It’s still early in the race and it only takes today to get right back in the KOM competition. There are 15 points to the first rider on top of each of the two climbs and right now Pirazzi only has 38 points in total. The Colombians have been very active in this race already but we are still to see their real strength. Now we are entering their terrain and a morning break without a least one of the strong Colombian climbers will be a big surprise.

Darwin Atapuma has been quiet so far in the race, but it hasn’t been his kind of terrain yet. He showed in the time trial that his climbing legs are working just fine when he passed De Greef on the uphill section after the Belgian previously had caught Atapuma on the flat part. Atapuma lives in 3200 meters above sea level in Colombia and as the Giro for the first time this year gets up in 1500 meters, Atapuma will start to feel at home. Together with Fabio Duarte, Team Colombia have two very strong contenders for this stage.

Another rider who will feel at home in this stage is Franco Pellizotti. Not because he lives in the heights but because he’s born in the area. Pellizotti knows the final climb like nobody else in this Giro and he’s eager to give his home crowd something to cheer for. Last year he won the Italian Championship and winning this stage on home soil, in ‘il tricolore’, is the biggest goal for Franco Pellizotti this year.

If it comes down to the big GC riders on the final climb, Mauro Santambrogio and Domenico Pozzovivo are my favorites. The two tiny climbers are great on the steep parts. Santambrogio are still very much in the GC fight but he’s been in-shape for a long time and if he fades towards the end of this Giro, he needs to win a stage soon. Pozzovivo is 4 minutes down in the GC and actually, that’s a little bit better than expected, taking a team time trial and a long individual time trial into consideration. It shows that Pozzovivo is strong right now and with only 53 kg, he’s practically flying on the steep parts.

Another tiny climber who I think can do well in this stage is a former teammate of Pozzovivo. Gianluca Brambilla started out this Giro with GC ambition, but an early crash quickly put an end to that. It has taken Brambilla a while to get ready again, but now he seems to be feeling good on the bike. He was in the first breakaway on Stage 9 and I’m sure he will be eager to get away on this stage too. Brambilla is more than one hour behind Vincenzo Nibali in the overall classification and the favorites won’t give him many thoughts should he be in a break.

It’s difficult to pick a favorite with a breakaway having good chances of succeeding but if it comes down the GC contenders, I think Domenico Pozzovivo will attack from a far and take the win.

Favorite: Domenico Pozzovivo

Top3 Pick: Mauro Santambrogio

Jokers: Darwin Atapuma / Franco Pellizotti / Gianluca Brambilla

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 10:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia update with Gianni Savio

Gianni Savio at the Giro d'Italia 2012.

Team owner of Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela and Giro Expert on this site last year, Gianni Savio, here gives his view on the first part of this year’s Giro d’Italia. The Androni team have been very active the last couple of stages and with a second place to Fabio Felline on Stage 4, Gianni Savio is satisfied with his team so far.

“I think we can be very satisfied with what we have done in this first week. Our philosophy is always to honor the race and the last three days [stage 3- 5] we have had a rider in the big break. No other teams have done that. Felline was close the other day and overall, we are racing very well. Today (Stage 6) we change the tactic. Now it’s all about Mattia Gavazzi. We hope and believe he can make the podium in this stage, even though we also now that there are many good sprinters in the race”.

Looking at the overall classification, team leader Franco Pellizotti now sits in 25^th position and Gianni Savio hopes the Italian Champion won’t lose too much time in the demanding time trial on Saturday.

“So far Pellizotti has been doing fine. He is waiting for his terrain, the mountains, and we still hope he will make Top10 overall. He is not a time trialist, but I’m sure he will defend himself well on Saturday. If he can lose less than three minutes to Bradley Wiggins, I think it’s a good result. This time trial will give us the first photo of the Giro and it will be very interesting to see the fight between the two big favorites, Wiggins and Nibali.

Also, our young rider Diego Rosa is doing very well. He’s in a good position in the general classification [34^th - 2:24 min down] and he’s still a contender for the white jersey”.

In today’s Gazzetta dello Sport there were rumors of Fabio Felline and Franco Pellizotti leaving the team next year. According to the Italian paper, Felline has been talking with Quickstep and Cannondale but for now, it’s only rumors.

“I read the article this morning and I asked him [Felline] about it. He told me; “No, no, no, no. It’s not true”, so I think it’s just journalists trying to make news”, Gianni Savio explains.

Last year I broke the news that Gianni Savio was thinking about upgrading to a World Tour status within the next couple of years and that plans is still intact. Still, Savio makes clear that he thinks that the system needs to change.

“I think the philosophy always should be to have a good level of cycling. Cycling must not only be a business, but a sport with a business. Right now, we see a lot of financially powerful teams, but without any real results. I think we should have a First and Second division, like in football for example. It shouldn’t be that just because you have a big budget you are on the World Tour. You need results too”.

Gianni Savio’s Wold Tour project has to do with the Venezuelan government and he think that they will increase the budgets for the coming seasons. Main sponsor Androni also shows that they want to continue the partnership.

For more Gianni Savio, stay tuned for the big preview of Stage 7 where Savio will give his thoughts on a very difficult and leg breaking day in the Giro.

Giro d’Italia 2013 - Preview & Favorites

Let it be said right away; there are two big favorites for this race and then a handful of riders fighting for the last step on the podium. The first 8 stages include two difficult time trials - one TTT and one ITT - and from this point on it will be everybody against Bradley Wiggins.

Last year’s Tour de France winner is expected to destroy the rest of the peloton on the 54.8 (!) undulating kilometers against the clock on stage 8 and I doubt Wiggins will let Maglia Rosa leave his shoulder after this day.

The last week of the Giro is always extremely hard and this year is no difference with five mountain top finishes, one of these a mountain time trial with just three days to go. The sprinters probably won’t have more than four or five days to win this year and with 20 bonus seconds to the stage winner every day (except for the time trials), I doubt we will see many breakaways making it in the mountains. This is Bradley Wiggins’ race to lose and Vincenzo Nibali, Ryder Hesjedal, Michele Scarponi, Robert Gesink and Samuel Sanchez all have to attack and take as many bonus seconds as possible.

On paper, there are plenty of opportunities to attack Bradley Wiggins in the mountains but Team Sky are not messing around. Rigoberto Uran, Sergio Henao and Dario Cataldo could lead many teams in this race, but they are all committed to work hard for Wiggins. Team Sky showed in the Tour de France last year, that they have what it takes to slowly kill the competition and drain the rest of the favorites for energy with a hard steady pace. The small and explosive climbers may be able to distance Wiggins and his team in the big mountains, but the time differences won’t be a big as the ones in the time trials. In the past, Bradley Wiggins had problems on the steep climbs but he has been working hard on that this year in order to be ready for the Giro. He now no longer fears the steep percentages and the way I see it, there is only one rider able to beat Wiggins this year.

Vincenzo Nibali seems to be in the shape of his life heading in to this Giro d’Italia and I expect him and Wiggins to take the first two places on the final podium. Nibali doesn’t have Wiggins raw power in the individual time trials, but Astana do have a strong team for the TTT on stage 2. Nibali lost 2 and 3½ min in the two ITT’s in last year’s Tour de France and I think he will end up losing around 2½ min to Wiggins in the long ITT here. He showed in Giro del Tretino a few weeks ago, that he is getting better on the steep parts, and I think he will surprise a few with some strong attacks when the gradients kick up. There are many “medium” stages in this year’s Giro d’Italia and I think Nibali and the rest of the favorites will take advantage of every opportunity to drop Wiggins if possible. Both Nibali and Wiggins are rock solid and don’t really have off-days. It’s true you can lose the race on just one day, especially in the last week, but I seriously doubt any of these two will go down like that. Nibali is best uphill, Wiggins is best against the clock and unfortunately for Nibali, the time differences will be biggest in ITTs. Still, Nibali is very proud and he never gives up. Don’t count him out until the end of the penultimate stage.

In my preview last year, I only had Ryder Hesjedal down for 8^th place overall and after his impressive win, I think it’s only fair to now put him as the first contender for the last spot on the podium. His season so far has been very similar to the one last year and being two kilos lighter than in 2012, I think Hesjedal will prove that last year wasn’t a one-time thing. I doubt he can drop Nibali uphill or stay close to Wiggins in the time trials, but he now knows that it takes, mentally as well, to win a Grand Tour. Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal have won a Grand Tour within the last couple of years and I doubt any of them will have an off-day in this race. Garmin aren’t nearly as strong as Astana and Team Sky but they showed last year, that it wasn’t a problem. Danielson, Stetina and VandeVelde will be Hesjedal’s last three in the mountains and it should be enough for the strong Canadian.

I told myself last year that I would give Robert Gesink one more chance to prove his abilities as a serious overall contender in a Grand Tour. This is it. Gesink has been called “a future Tour de France winner” for a long time now but he is yet to show he can walk the distance. He’s done Top10 in the Vuelta three times and once Top5 in the Tour, but he always seems to run into bad luck. This year, Robert Gesink has put everything on the Giro d’Italia and despite a mixed start of the season, I do believe Gesink is ready to aim for the podium in this Giro. He came to Tour de Romandie after two weeks training on Teide (Tenerife) and did show some good racing the first days before he took easy in the bad weather with eyes on the Giro. He claims to be in great shape right now and I think Gesink will make Top5 this in this Giro - maybe even podium if everything goes his way. Remember, Blanco still don’t have a sponsor for next season and naturally Gesink and the rest of the team will do everything they can in order to show they are worth sponsoring.

Like Gesink and Hesjedal, Michael Scarponi hasn’t shown much this season. He did however manage to take 3^rd place overall in Volta Catalunya after a sneaky attack on the final stage. He took it easy in Giro del Trentino after a training camp but showed in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (5^th place) that the shape is good. Scarponi was the big favorite last year but couldn’t live up to the expectations and ended 4^th in the overall classification. Scarponi isn’t strong in the time trials but he is rock solid. If he’s named among the favorites you can be sure he will end among the best. He’s has finished in Top4 the last three years in a row - winning in 2011 after Contador got suspended - and I think he will make another Top5 performance this year.  He can rely on strong riders like Niemiec, Serpa and Stortoni in the mountains and like Wiggins, Nibali and Hesjedal he never has a real off-day. Without the long time trial on stage 8, Scarponi might had have a chance of winning this race overall, but now I think Top5 is the best he can aim for.

The last rider with a solid chance of Top5, in my book, is Samuel Sanchez. Officially, the goal for Euskaltel and Sanchez is a stage win - which will make Sanchez join the club of stage winners in both Giro, Tour and Vuelta - but I wouldn’t be surprised if Samuel Sanchez ends up fighting for a spot on the podium. He’s already been on the podium in the Vuelta a couple of times and - on paper - also in the Tour. Naturally a stage win would be more important than ending 6^th or 10^th overall, but if Sanchez manages to pull off a stage win in the first half of the Giro, he might as well give everything for the GC too.

Stage 20 - The penultimate stage of this year's Giro d'Italia.
The final chance to change to move up in the GC.
Click for larger view.

The way I see it, there are 6-8 riders left fighting for the last four places in Top10 overall. Franco Pellizotti will be eager to show off his Italian Champions jersey on home soil and I expect him do very well in the last week. Beñat Intxausti already showed last year what he can do in the Grand Tours and I think now the time has come for him to lead a team. He’s very strong in time trials and he defends himself just fine on the climbs. Last year, Intxausti said he was aiming for a podium spot in this Giro, but I think a Top10 place is the most realistic result for the Basque rider.

My own personal joker for this Giro d’Italia is Robert Kiserlovski. He moved from Astana to Radioshack before this season in order to get his own chance in the big races, and he has had his eyes on this race ever since. While others dream about the Tour, Kiserlovski dreams about the Giro and he showed in Tour de Romandie that he’s in great shape right now. Kiserlovski’s weak spot is the time trials and that is also why I can’t see him do better than around 10-15 overall. I think he will surprise quite a few in the mountains and with Thiago Machado at his side, he can count on good support uphill. 

I could go on for hours about the rest of the GC riders in this Giro d’Italia, but instead I’ll leave you with this Pre-Top20 for the general classification:

1. Wiggins

2. Nibali

3. Hesjedal

4. Gesink

5. Scarponi

6. Sanchez

7. Pellizotti

8. Intxausti

9. Kiserlovski

10. Betancur (White Jersey winner)

11. Pozzovivo

12. Santambrogio

13. Majka

14. Uran

15. Machado

16. Cataldo

17. Trofimov

18. Pirazzi

19. Serpa

20. Henao

As you can see, Cadel Evans didn’t make my list. To me, it seems like Evans still think he can win the Tour this year and therefore I seriously doubt he will dig deep in this Giro. I expect him to go for a stage win one of the days instead.

Remember, there will be Stage Previews for all the stages this year. Each preview will be posted the evening before the stage and the one for Stage 1 will be most likely already be online Thursday evening or Friday morning. This Preview doesn’t talk about the sprinters in the race, but there will plenty of sprinter-talk in the preview for stage 1 and the remaining bunch sprint stages.

For live race coverage of Giro d’Italia 2013 go to steephill.tv

Androni-Venezuela to honor Hugo Chavez

Gianno Savio and his Androni-Venezuela team didn’t manage to take the win in Wednesday’s GP Nobili but they still managed to honor Venezuela’s late president Hugo Chavez by winning the overall team classification. Fabio Fellini took 6^th place, Miguel Angel Rubiano 11^th and Riccardo Chiarini 15^th.

Androni-Venezuela on the podium in GP Nobili.

“We are satisfied. We won the team classification and got important points for the Italian Championship. This was the first race for us after the death of Hugo Chavez and it was important for us to honor him”, Gianni Savio tells C-Cycling.

Androni-Venezuela were wearing black mourning bands in GP Nobili and even though it hasn’t been decided yet, Gianni Savio expect his riders to wear it again in Sunday’s Milano-San Remo.

“We don’t have any favorites or specialists for this race”, Savio explains regarding this team’s chances on Sunday. “We want to get into the breaks and by that honor the race. It has always been my philosophy to honor every race we are taking part in. Our three team leaders are Pellizotti, Felline and Rubiano. I hope they can follow the attacks on Cipressa and Poggio, but I also know that it’s almost impossible to follow a rider like Fabian Cancellara when he attacks. The best scenario for us would be a sprint in a little group with either Felline or Rubiano”.

In-shape Francesco Reda was originally set to start on Sunday but has resigned due to family problems. Reda is being replaced by youngster Diego Rosa who won the Youth Classification in Tour Med.

Exclusive Interview - Gianni Savio (Team Manager, Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela)

Gianni Savio.

Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela managed to win the Italian Team Championship for the second year in a row and by that secure a spot in next year’s Giro d’Italia. All in all Gianni Savio’s team won 17 races this season so naturally the Italian team manager was very satisfied with how 2012 turned out.

Gianni, first of all congratulations on winning the championship.

Thank you! It was very important to us. First of all because it’s an honor to win the Italian Championship and secondly because we now have a wild card for the Giro d’Italia next year. It’s good that we can start the next season without any stress.

I take it you are quite satisfied with this season?
Indeed! I’m very, very satisfied with this year and to be honest it will be more than difficult to repeat it next year. But of course we will try. We always have the same passion and determination, but... It will not be easy to do as well as this year.

What has been the best moment for the team this year?

I would like you point out three moments. The first one is the Giro d’Italia stage we won with Miguel Angel Rubiano. It was a fantastic day and he was even virtual maglia rosa in the last kilometer. The second moment was when Franco Pellizotti won the Italian Championship. We signed him in May just before the Giro after he had come back from a very difficult time and for him to win the Italian Champions was unbelievable, not only for his career but also for himself as a person. The last one was in Giro dell'Emilia where we secured the Italian Team Championship. There was a ‘sporting war’ going on between Androni and Colnago and luckily for us Pellizotti [ending 3^rd] managed to keep Pozzovivo [ending 4^th] behind him. Don’t forget that if Pozzovivo had won this race, Colnago would have won the Championship!

What about the worst moment of the season?

Hmm… Maybe the beginning of Giro di Padania. Colnago won the TTT and the day after Modolo won a stage. It really didn’t look good for our team [thinking of the Italian Championship], but we managed to finish in a very strong way. We showed a lot of character and determination by putting two riders [Chiarini & Pellizotti] on the final podium behind Nibali.

Looking ahead. How do you see your team next year?

I think we still have a very competitive team. We managed to keep most of our important riders, so next year we will be able to count on Pellizotti, Sella, Felline, Chiarini and Rubiano. I think we have a good team. Furthermore I have signed some very promising young riders such as Matteo Di Serafino and Diego Rosa who is an incredible climber. I would have liked to keep both Ferrari, Serpa and De Marchi but they all got some very good offers from the ProTour teams and with our budget we simply couldn’t match that. My philosophy has always been to be able to pay everybody on the team; riders, mechanics, soigneurs etc. etc. and therefore we couldn’t afford to keep those riders.

And a quick comment about Rujano?

Well… This year Rujano did nothing. Nothing at all. He didn’t finish the Giro and generally he didn’t do well this season. Not only on a sporting level but also on a moral level. 

In the past you have been the only manager able to get results from Rujano. Do you think he will succeed at Vacansoleil-DCM?
It’s impossible to say if he will manage to do well with his new team. Rujano is a very special person with a mind of his own and only - only, only, only - Rujano knows what Rujano will be able to do.

You have one the brightest talents in Fabio Felline on your team. What can we expect from him in 2013?

Felline is still very young and it’s important not to put any pressure on him. That being said, I still think he will have a very good season next year and I think he will be a protagonist in the classics and in the Giro d’Italia. There are many good stages for him in the Giro. In the U23 World Champions he was one of the favorites, but I don’t think the Italian team rode like a team. When I give directions to my riders before a race everybody knows their role, but in the U23 race the Italian team seemed confused. Felline was alone in the final and he had already spent too much energy on attacking. I think that with another strategy it could have turned out differently for him.

Androni Giocattoli - Venezuela just had their first team meeting of the season in Rivarolo Canavese where they were presented with the prize of winning the Italian Team Championship. The team will get together again in the middle of December [9-16] before starting the new season in Argentina with Tour de San Luis.

Even though 2012 has been a huge success for the team, Gianni Savio hasn’t given up on the idea of joining the world’s elite and upgrade to the UCI WorldTour. You can read all about this by clicking here.