Unfortunately,
this stage too has been modified a lot and the first three big mountains have
all been cancelled due to the bad weather. This leaves us with a 210 km long stage
with only the final 25 km are kept as planned. A strong morning break over the
big climbs would have had a good chance of making it to the line but with this
new profile it all comes down to the final climb up to Tre Cime Di Lavaredo.
The first
187.6 km aren’t very challenging but hopefully we will get to see fire some
firework already on the first climb up to Passo Tre Croci. This category 2
climb has a steady 7% gradient all the 8 km to the top and if the morning break
hasn’t already been caught, this is a good place to finally rail them back in.
As I wrote in the preview for Stage 19, I would like to see Lampre take charge
and play out Niemiec early on. If he attacks on Passo Tre Croci, it would force
BMC and Sky to work hard and without a strong team, Evans would quickly be
isolated.
There are
about 7 km from the top of Passo Tre Croci to the final climb begins. It starts
with a steep kilometer of 10.6% with parts of 18%. Then there is short descent
before the final 3 km kicks up with an average (!) gradient of 12.4%. There are
parts of nearly 20% with two kilometers to go and the tiny climbers like Sergio
Henao, Carlos Betancur and Domenico Pozzovivo will have a big advantage here.
The only
leader’s jersey still up for grab is the White Jersey and with only two seconds
between Rafal Majka and Carlos Betancur, we should be in for a great show on
this final climb. Majka seems to flying right now but these steep percentages
surely favors Betancur more than the strong Pole. I would imagine Domenico
Pozzovivo to attack first and make the other riders work for the stage win. If
they then catch Pozzovivo, Betancur will be ready to counter. Just like we saw
it on the stage Uran won earlier in the race.
 |
| The final 3 km of the stage. |
Samuel Sanchez came close the other day and he's still chasing a stage win that will see him join the club of stage winners in all the three Grand Tours. The steep final part isn't really in Sanchez' favor but he does seem very strong right now and he's always good in the last week.
This being
the last mountain stage of the race, I doubt a morning breakaway will make it. The
fight for second and third place overall are still so close that every bonus
second count and Betancur also knows that he is faster than Majka on the line.
Even if Betancur can’t drop Majka on the climb, he can still outsprint him and
the take bonus seconds he needs.
Many odd things
have already occurred in this Giro and of course, it’s not impossible a morning
break will make it. Androni have been in all the major breaks in this Giro d’Italia
and I would expect riders like Jackson Rodriguz and Miguel Angel Rubiano to try
again. Franco Pellizotti still aims at Top10 overall and with nothing to lose I
think he will try to attack early on Passo Tre Crocil.
Movistar
have been extremely strong the last week and even though their most important
task now is to secure Beñat Intxausti’s Top10 place, I’m sure they will try to
take their fifth stage win. Eros Capecchi, José Herrada and Juan José Cobo are
all good contenders for an early break and I think at least one of them will
make it.
Last, I
need to mention Team Colombia. They came to the Giro with high hopes for this
final week but with all the big mountains being cancelled out, they haven’t really
had a chance to show their strength. Darwin Atapuma is getting better and
better and so is Fabio Duarte. The little Colombian have been attacking
non-stop the last couple of days and I’m sure he will try again on this stage. Duarte
is good on the steep percentages and together with Atapuma, Colombia have a
dangerous duo for the final climb. Also, the Colombian Sports Minister, Andres
Botero, will join the team for the final two stages and if the riders weren’t
motivated enough already, this should give them the extra edge.
Favorites: Carlos
Betancur & Domenico Pozzovivo
Top 3 Pick: Rafal
Majka
Jokers: Fabio
Duarte / Franco Pellizotti / José Herrada
I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 20:
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