There is no
need for stage profiles as they are all pancake flat. Five stages in the heavy
cross wind expected to end in a sprint plus a team time trial on the second
day. Tom Boonen normally owns this race and in his absence we have to look to a
couple of other of the big contenders for Paris-Roubaix later this year.
First up is
Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky have had a new approach to the season training
very hard during the winter and we already saw what that meant when Geraint
Thomas showed off in Tour Down Under. It’s not often you see a track rider drop
the climbers on 20% as Thomas did in Australia. Edvald Boasson Hagen didn’t
seem to hit it off Down Under, but he did put in a good effort on Willunga Hill
for Thomas and managed to take third place on the finale stage. The Norwegian
wonderboy aims big at the Spring Classics this season and after getting the
legs ready Down Under, I think he will be the man to beat in Qatar. Team Sky
have a great team for the TTT and if Eddy mingles with the best in the mass
sprints as well I can’t really see who should beat him.
Only guy I
can think of is Mark Cavendish. Quickstep are always on top of their game in
this race and must be one of the favorites for the TTT as well. Cavendish is
not a stranger to Tour of Qatar, but he always seems to have bad luck or get
caught in the wind when it counts. Quickstep have guys like Terpstra and Stybar
to keep Cavendish safe, but both of those might as well give a go themselves in
the challenging weather conditions. If you are looking for a joker for the
overall classification, I’ll recommend Niki Terpstra.
 |
| No wonder the cross wind plays a huge factor in Tour of Qatar... |
I said we
had to look for Paris-Roubaix contender to find the overall winner and I know
Mark Cavendish doesn’t fit this category but the next one will. Fabian
Cancellara has always been good in Qatar and with a strong team for the TTT and
last year in mind, Cancellara will definitely be a marked man. Last year Tom
Boonen started his amazing season by winning in Qatar and hungry for revenge
Fabian Cancellara might as well do the same and show the world that he is ready
for the classics. The race normally splits up many times during the six days
and only a few riders know when to be in front as well as Cancellara do.
Radioshack need a new beginning after Bruyneel and the best man to give them
that is Swiss.
Last one of
my top favorites for the overall win is Taylor Phinney. The young American has
set Paris-Roubaix as his goal big goal this season and helped by a very strong
team and a fast finish on the line, Phinney should be named as one of the main
contenders. As many other teams, BMC are sending their Classics riders to Qatar
and having Marcus Burghardt, Michael Schär and Greg Van Avermaet to help
Phinney stay in front and out of troubles, I think BMC will be one of the
controlling teams in this race. Phinney may not have what it takes to beat
Cavendish, Guardini or Degenkolb in a sprint finish, but he is consistent and
fast and says he’s coming into the race “strong and confident”.
For what
concerns the sprint field this may not be as great as in Tour Down Under, but
with names like Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini, Nacer Bouhanni
and Elia Viviani on the start list, it should be five very interesting days.
Mark Cavendish showed in Argentina that he is ready to win early this season
when he won the first stage of Tour San Luis and I expect him to take the first
stage in Qatar as well. Andre Greipel turned out to be a level - or two - above
everybody else in Australia and I’m certain Cavendish is eager to show he’s up
there too.
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| There aren't many spectators in the dessert for Tour of Qatar and it wouldn't be a lie to say most of them aren't human. |
Andrea
Guardini didn’t really hit it off in Tour Down Under and even though he may not
be one of the best in the cross wind, he should be able to try his luck in a
couple of stages. If he manages to stick to the right wheel in the final, he
could be the best pick to beat Cavendish.
If not
Guardini then John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano have always aimed at getting ‘the
best leadout train in the world’ and they showed last year what they are
capable of with Marcel Kittel and Degenkolb. Yet it all went wrong in Tour Down
Under. Not a single day did they manage to time it well so you can be sure they
too are eager to get started. John Degenkolb was outstanding in the Vuelta last
year and without Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano could very well be the leading
team in the sprints.
For other
fast guys look to Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich
Haussler, Kenny Van Hummel, Yauheni Hutarovich and Sacha Modolo. Especially
Modolo, who showed to be very fast in Argentina.
That is for
me. As always I will leave you with my pre-top10 for the overall
classification.
1. Edvald Boasson Hagen
2. Fabian Cancellara
3. Taylor Phinney
4. Niki Terpstra
5. Mark Cavendish (winner pick if he stays up front in the cross wind)
6. Greg Van Avermaet
7. Juan-Antonio Flecha
8. Geraint Thomas
9. Heinrich Haussler
10. Alexander Kristoff
For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde
For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde
