Tour of Qatar: Preview & Favorites

Looking at the start list you may think the Spring Classics are starting early this season. Thanks to the heavy wind and sunny weather, every rider aiming at the cobblestones classics want to be here. The hotels are the best the riders will see during the season and despite the lack of hills - or turns for that matter - Tour of Qatar now counts as an important race for all teams with high hopes in March and April.

There is no need for stage profiles as they are all pancake flat. Five stages in the heavy cross wind expected to end in a sprint plus a team time trial on the second day. Tom Boonen normally owns this race and in his absence we have to look to a couple of other of the big contenders for Paris-Roubaix later this year.

First up is Edvald Boasson Hagen. Team Sky have had a new approach to the season training very hard during the winter and we already saw what that meant when Geraint Thomas showed off in Tour Down Under. It’s not often you see a track rider drop the climbers on 20% as Thomas did in Australia. Edvald Boasson Hagen didn’t seem to hit it off Down Under, but he did put in a good effort on Willunga Hill for Thomas and managed to take third place on the finale stage. The Norwegian wonderboy aims big at the Spring Classics this season and after getting the legs ready Down Under, I think he will be the man to beat in Qatar. Team Sky have a great team for the TTT and if Eddy mingles with the best in the mass sprints as well I can’t really see who should beat him.

Only guy I can think of is Mark Cavendish.  Quickstep are always on top of their game in this race and must be one of the favorites for the TTT as well. Cavendish is not a stranger to Tour of Qatar, but he always seems to have bad luck or get caught in the wind when it counts. Quickstep have guys like Terpstra and Stybar to keep Cavendish safe, but both of those might as well give a go themselves in the challenging weather conditions. If you are looking for a joker for the overall classification, I’ll recommend Niki Terpstra.

No wonder the cross wind plays a
huge factor in Tour of Qatar...

I said we had to look for Paris-Roubaix contender to find the overall winner and I know Mark Cavendish doesn’t fit this category but the next one will. Fabian Cancellara has always been good in Qatar and with a strong team for the TTT and last year in mind, Cancellara will definitely be a marked man. Last year Tom Boonen started his amazing season by winning in Qatar and hungry for revenge Fabian Cancellara might as well do the same and show the world that he is ready for the classics. The race normally splits up many times during the six days and only a few riders know when to be in front as well as Cancellara do. Radioshack need a new beginning after Bruyneel and the best man to give them that is Swiss.

Last one of my top favorites for the overall win is Taylor Phinney. The young American has set Paris-Roubaix as his goal big goal this season and helped by a very strong team and a fast finish on the line, Phinney should be named as one of the main contenders. As many other teams, BMC are sending their Classics riders to Qatar and having Marcus Burghardt, Michael Schär and Greg Van Avermaet to help Phinney stay in front and out of troubles, I think BMC will be one of the controlling teams in this race. Phinney may not have what it takes to beat Cavendish, Guardini or Degenkolb in a sprint finish, but he is consistent and fast and says he’s coming into the race “strong and confident”.

For what concerns the sprint field this may not be as great as in Tour Down Under, but with names like Mark Cavendish, John Degenkolb, Andrea Guardini, Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani on the start list, it should be five very interesting days. Mark Cavendish showed in Argentina that he is ready to win early this season when he won the first stage of Tour San Luis and I expect him to take the first stage in Qatar as well. Andre Greipel turned out to be a level - or two - above everybody else in Australia and I’m certain Cavendish is eager to show he’s up there too.

There aren't many spectators in the dessert for Tour of Qatar
and it wouldn't be a lie to say most of them aren't human.

Andrea Guardini didn’t really hit it off in Tour Down Under and even though he may not be one of the best in the cross wind, he should be able to try his luck in a couple of stages. If he manages to stick to the right wheel in the final, he could be the best pick to beat Cavendish.

If not Guardini then John Degenkolb. Argos-Shimano have always aimed at getting ‘the best leadout train in the world’ and they showed last year what they are capable of with Marcel Kittel and Degenkolb. Yet it all went wrong in Tour Down Under. Not a single day did they manage to time it well so you can be sure they too are eager to get started. John Degenkolb was outstanding in the Vuelta last year and without Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano could very well be the leading team in the sprints.

For other fast guys look to Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Alexander Kristoff, Heinrich Haussler, Kenny Van Hummel, Yauheni Hutarovich and Sacha Modolo. Especially Modolo, who showed to be very fast in Argentina.

That is for me. As always I will leave you with my pre-top10 for the overall classification.

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen

2. Fabian Cancellara

3. Taylor Phinney

4. Niki Terpstra

5. Mark Cavendish (winner pick if he stays up front in the cross wind)

6. Greg Van Avermaet

7. Juan-Antonio Flecha

8. Geraint Thomas

9. Heinrich Haussler

10. Alexander Kristoff

For stage previews, winnerpicks and jokers make sure to follow me on Twitter @mrconde

World Champions Preview - Time Trial

The two best time trialists of the season, Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins are not taking part in the World Champions this year that means we could see some surprising names on the final podium Wednesday afternoon. Still, last year’s World Champion Tony Martin is here and together with Vuelta España winner Alberto Contador he is one of the big favorites.

The course last year in Copenhagen was perfect for Tony Martin without any hills and with plenty of parts where he could get his big engine going. This year the course is completely different with nasty hills and many turns. According to home soil favorite Lieuwe Westra the longest straight out part of the total 45,7 km is about 4,5 km while the rest is a couple of hundred meters before turning left and another couple of hundred meters before turning right. It’s a course for riders with good bike handling skills and I think the many turns and the undulating route will make it hard for Tony Martin to repeat his win from last year. I’m not saying he is not going to win, I’m just saying it will be very tough to pull it off.

My personal winner pick for the gold medal is Alberto Contador. The Vuelta was hard - no doubts - but he should be able to recover well and do a great race already. Before Contador got his ban, the Olympic time trial was a big goal for him this season and looking at the two courses I would say this one suits Contador even better. He finished 2^nd after Fredrik Kessiakoff without taking big risk on the descent towards the finish line. Contador had best time at the check point and if it had been a time trial for the overall win in the Vuelta I’m sure he would have won too.

Earlier this year I picked Lieuwe Westra as joker for the World Champion time trial and after his insane time trial in Post Danmark Rundt (where he beat Geraint Thomas with 19 seconds over just 14,5 km) I would say he seems ready. Normally Westra is better in the short time trials but on home soil and with the hills in his favor I think he will be able to get a very good result. It won’t be easy getting on the podium, but I think he can do it on a good day.

Another outsider for the podium is Tejay van Garderen. In the team time trial TJ went so fast over Cauberg that Phinney couldn’t follow and that probably cost BMC the win. Both Phinney and TJ have high hopes for this time trial but I think TJ has the best chance of a medal - mainly because of the hills. It also depends on the weather. A strong tail wind will minimize the influence of the hills and that would mean Taylor Phinney finally could step up on the podium after his two 4^th places at the Olympics. Both Americans have a good chance, but I’ll go with Westra and TJ as my podium jokers.

Winner pick: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Lieuwe Westra & Tejay van Garderen

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 21

Gianni Savio explains:

The last stage of the Giro; the time trial in Milan. It’s been a very interesting race and it’s still very close. I’m not surprised it’s this close between the winner and the second place though and I think it’s possible for Hesjedal to take back the time he needs to win the Giro.

My favorite for the stage is Taylor Phinney.

Giro d’Italia - Rest Day catch up

At this first Rest Day of the Giro I give you a chance to catch up on the all the Giro d’Italia related articles being posted on this site the last week. 

07/05 - Giro Interview - Gianni Savio
06/05 - Giro Expert Preview - Stage 3
06/05 - Exclusive - Phinney ready to help Hushovd
06/05 - Exclusive - Fuglsang: I want to stay
05/05 - Giro Expert Preview - Stage 2
05/05 - Super Phinney - Super Cool
05/05 - Exclusive - Uran hopes for Top10
04/05 - Giro Expert Preview - Stage 1
04/05 - Exclusive - “I fear Denmark more than Stelvio”
04/05 - Giro Interview - Gustav Erik Larsson
04/05 - Giro d'Italia - The Favorites
03/05 - Welcome to the Giro d’Italia

GIRO EXCLUSIVE - Phinney ready to help Hushovd

Phinney can enjoy another
day in Pink on Stage 3.

Despite suffering a crash within the last 10 km of Stage 2 in the Giro d’Italia, Taylor Phinney managed to get back to the peloton thanks to an impressive amount of work from his team mates Danilo Wyss and former World Champion Alessandro Ballan. The grueling chase left Phinney without any energy to participate in the sprint – in order to get gain bonus seconds in the GC – and according to the American he won’t try on Stage 3 either.

"Actually no, I don’t think I will [participate in the sprint on Stage 3]. I know Thor [Hushovd] is very strong right now, so I will try to help him get a result instead. Hopefully I will get a less stressful day tomorrow and be able to enjoy this Pink Jersey a bit more than I could today”.

Thor Hushovd ended 7th in the sprint on Stage 2 after a poor time trial the day before. Stage 3 ends with three very technical laps in the center of Horsens so Hushovd needs to be on the top of his game to get a good result against the guys like Mark Cavendish and Matthew Goss.

Super Phinney - Super Cool

Taylor Phinney has been fixated about this time trial ever since the race course was revealed and after having the Pink Jersey as his desktop background for months he managed to make his dream come true and win the first stage in this year’s Giro d’Italia.

From the way he had been practicing on the course the last two days it was clear to see that he would do great today and despite bike problems before the start he kept his cool and showed the world what he is capable of doing.

Taylor Phinney didn't panic but kept his cool
when his bike had to get fixed before the start.

At the obligatory UCI bike check right before the start it turned out that Phinney’s saddle wasn’t even and therefore had to be fixed. Phinney didn’t panic and had confidence enough to stand there smiling when his saddle got put into the right direction.

Many of the other rider, aiming to do well in his time trial, put up a stone face when they got on the starting ramp, but not Taylor Phinney. Despite having put an enormous pressure on himself he still took the time to wave out to the audience when the presenters said his name.

As cool as he was before the start, just as cool did he turn out to be on the course. Taylor Phinney smashed Geraint Thomas’ time by 9 seconds and took the first Pink Jersey in Giro. Truly impressive!

Giro Expert Preview - Stage 1

Gianni Savio explains:
This is a difficult time trial because of the many corners. You have to pay attention at all the time not to crash. For the climbers it’s good because the corners also means you have to change the rhythm many times so they won’t lose as much time as if it has been a straight out prologue.

My favorites for the stage win are Taylor Phinney and of course Alex Rasmussen because he has a lot of motivation on his home soil.