TDU Preview - Stage 2

As predicted nobody could touch Andre Greipel on stage 1, but Arnaud Démare sure was the strongest of the rest, taking 2^nd place after an impressive kick in the final. Now it’s time to switch focus from the sprinters to the puncheurs as Tour Down Under takes on the first real struggles for the GC contenders.

Corkscrew Road is a steep one to get over this early in the season and despite it only being 2,4 km the average gradient of 9,5% will make a huge impact on the final classification. Every team with GC ambitions will try to deliver their guy in front and with a  super fast descent towards the climb and a narrow turn as it starts, we are in for a hectic - and probably very chaotic – final kilometers before it goes uphill.

Looking at the climb the steepest part is at beginning with sections of 20% as the riders later struggle through 4 hairpins before it evens out (about 5%) near the top. The Australian National Team have been training on these roads many times, so you can use all the local riders will be eager to try their luck. Especially Simon Gerrans who seemed very happy with taking 3 bonus seconds on stage 1. So did Phillipe Gilbert and I think it will be a fight between these two and a handful of other riders for the win in Rostrevor.

It will be a fast finish as the last 7 kilometers from the top of Corkscrew Road are downhill towards the finishing line and according to the race organizers, riders are set to reach a speed of almost 100 km/h on their way to the line. Still the wind can be an issue as a head wind will in the valley will make it difficult for a small group to keep the peloton at bay.

Except for the Australian riders you have to keep an eye on the Movistar team. My pre-pick for the final podium - and a strong contender for the this stage - Eros Capecchi, stroke out on Stage 1 (lost 1:19 min after preparing the sprint for JJ Rojas) so I’m not sure what to make of him, even though the finish is perfect for his characteristics. He could be man for a morning break, but with the bonus seconds being so important it will be very difficult for an early breakaway to make it. Guys like Javier Moreno, José Herrada and Giovanni Visconti all have what it takes to attack in this terrain, but again, it won’t be easy to drop Gerrans and Gilbert.

Edvald Boasson Hagen must be mentioned among the big favorites for the stage too, but he needs to stay with the explosive riders on the steep parts of Corkscrew Road. One could argue that he's strong enough on the descent to catch up, but don't forget that Gilbert too is very good on the downhill sections. Another chance for EBH is if ends up in a sprint, but unless there's a head wind on the final kilometers I doubt it will come down to that.

Thomas De Gendt showed he wants to challenge the favorites in the GC as he took bonus seconds on stage 1 as well and being stronger than normally this early in the season, he could be a dangerous outsider for the stage and for the overall classification. In my “Favorites”-piece I’ve put down Tom-Jelte Slagter for a top5 spot in the GC and I think he will try to attack on Corkscrew Road. He’s strong on the steep parts and actually fast on the line too. If anyone was to drop Gerrans and Gilbert on Corkscrew Road my money would be on Slagter or Moreno.

If you are looking for a super joker, try Tim Wellens. The young Belgian is a great climber and fast on the line as well. Lotto-Belisol have been in Australia for a while, getting ready for Tour Down Under and I wouldn't be surprise to see Wellens mingle with the best on Corkscrew Road. 

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Javier Moreno / Tom-Jelte Slagter

Tour Preview - Stage 12

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It’s going to be hard to follow up on the last days predictions, but I’ll give a try. The way I see it this is a typical breakaway stage. The two category 1 climbs in the beginning of the stage Col du Grand Cucheron and Col du Granier are both very steep (especially Granier) and that should give us a strong breakaway group to fight it out for win in Annonay Davézieux. From the top op Col du Granier there are 120 km to go so possibility of it all coming back together for a sprint in a selective group is also there - no doubts about that.

Favorites:
There is one guy you just can’t rule out in this Tour de France: Peter Sagan! Sagan has already won three stages in his Tour-debut and he has shown that he can stay with Nibali on climbs as well. On Stage 11 he was next to Nibali all the way up over Col de Madeleine and he even had enough energy to attack on the descent. If Peter Sagan manages to get into the break tomorrow he will be nearly impossible to beat. Also if Sagan is in the peloton group and the break hasn’t already got a solid lead, it’s not unlikely that Liquigas and other teams will try to bring it back together. The last kilometers are uphill with about 4% and if you can point at better rider right now for that kind of finish I’ll be impressed!

Last 5 km of the stage - perfect
for riders like Sagan & Gerrans.

Riders like Sandy Casar, Sylvain Chavanel and Simon Gerrans are also excellent picks for Stage 12 as well. Casar tried his luck the other day but couldn’t keep up with Voeckler on the climbs. This time the climbs are early on the stage which means that Sandy Casar should be able to get back in the front if he loses a little ground again. Sylvain Chavanel has been trying like a maniac to get in the early breaks the last couple of days but so far without any success in the end. Chavanel wants a stage win very badly and I think this might be his best chance in the Tour to get it.

The same goes for Simon Gerrans. The Australian Champion was with Casar and Voeckler the other day but didn’t have the legs to finish it. On Stage 11 he took it easy and “cruised” through the day in order to be ready for this stage. The uphill finish suits Simon Gerrans perfectly and if I should point on any of these three guys I think it would be him. Then again, all three riders could do it. If you are looking for a super joker, look to Vacansoleil-DCM's Marco Marcato.

Winner pick: Peter Sagan
Joker: Simon Gerrans

Tour Preview - Stage 8

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Any riders aiming at the polka dot jersey will have this stage red-circled in their calendar. With 7 categorized climbs on the menu, this is the day you need to hit the right break and collect points. I can’t see any team take control keep it together so let’s have a look at some of the riders able to make the final breakaway.

Favorites:

First name I thought of when I saw this stage profile earlier this was Sylvain Chavanel. This is a typical Chavanel stage and with the shape he has shown so far this season, he is surely one of the big favorites! Sylvain Chavanel came to the Tour stating that he wanted to animate the race again and take the yellow jersey at some point during the race. He tried hard on the first stages but Fabian Cancellara didn’t let it happen. Now the yellow jersey is property of Team Sky and Bradley Wiggins and I doubt they want to spend (waste) the same amount of energy in keeping the jersey this early in the race. Chavanel seems to be in something like the shape of his life and I’m sure he will try to get away and try to take it all in Porrentruy; stage win and yellow jersey. Only thing pointing against it is that Sylvain Chavanel still is fairly close in the GC. After Stage 7 he said that he now wants to keep his place high in the overall standings and with a time trial coming up on Monday he may think it would be wasting powers working in front all day on Sunday.

As said this is a stage for the riders chasing the polka dot jersey and because of that we can’t let out Johnny Hoogerland. His big goal in this Tour is to take revenge and get the jersey and being almost half an hour after Wiggins in the overall classification he’s absolutely no threat what so ever. Hoogerland showed in Tirreno-Adriatico that he has taken his climbing to the next level and he needs that on the last three climbs of the stage all with average percentages of 8-9%. Vacansoleil-DCM have a lot of riders who could do well on this stage (especially Rafa Valls and Marco Marcato) but I think Hoogerland will be the most motivated, knowing there are 38 points up for grab in the fight for the polka dot jersey.

Last climb. Top is 15km from the line.

Normally I would have picked out Michael Albasini as an excellent choice for a stage winner but after his effort on Stage 7 I think it’s time for Simon Gerrans to show the GreenEDGE colors. Gerrans had an outstanding start of the season winning Tour Down Under and Milano-San Remo and wanted to do well on Stage 3 but ended up in the side of the road before the race went into its final part. Without a real GC-contender GreenEDGE have giving Albasini, Gerrans and Weening green light to try their own luck in the breakaways and this being a perfect stage for a break to make it, I think Gerrans will be eager to show off his Australian Champion jersey in front of the Tour de France.

I could keep on naming typical breakaway riders like Sandy Casar, Alexander Vinkourov, Thomas Voeckler etc. etc., but that would take all evening. That being said, those three are also excellent picks for a winner in Porrentruy Sunday afternoon!

After Stage 7 Bjarne Riis didn’t hide Team Saxo Bank - Tinkoff Bank’s ambitions for this stage when asked about the tactic: “If they [the peloton] let him go I think we will see Chris [Anker Sørensen] in front again tomorrow”. It’s no secret that Sørensen wants the polka dot jersey but I honestly can’t see him win a sprint in a small group. If Chris Anker Sørensen is going to win Stage 8 it has to be solo, attacking on the last steep climb with its top 15 km from the line.

As you can see it’s almost impossible picking only one rider for a stage like this, but I think I’ll try with the Australian Champion. Second pick will be French.

Winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Joker: Sandy Casar

Favorites for Tour Down Under 2012

The cycling season is finally about to start with Santos Tour Down Under and to celebrate that I’ve made a little list with my three personal favorites for the overall classification. I will most likely give tips to selected stages during the race so don't forget to check back soon!


1. Simon Gerrans
The GreenEDGE-captain has already won the race (back in 2006) and seems to be as strong as ever this early in the season. His impressive win in the Australian championships showed that Gerrans has the right punch in his legs right now and with the finishes in Stirling (stage2) and on Willunga Hill (stage5) this year’s route really seems to fit the little Aussie. Not to metion that Simon Gerrans must be more motivated than ever riding in the colors of the new GreenEDGE team on home soil.

2. Michael Rogers
Next rider up is another Aussie. Michael Rogers lost his 2011-season to injuries but is now back in shape and ready to win. Like Simon Gerrans, Rogers also showed great legs in the national championships, on the time trial, where he ended 3rd only 16 seconds behind U-23 World Champion Luke Durbridge. One could argue that Team Sky already have Edvald Boasson Hagen for the overall classification, but according to the Norwegian it is Michael Rogers who is the captain. Rogers wants to win and I have no doubts his team will back him. Remember Rogers isn’t that slow in a sprint in a smaller group either. Look out for him on Willunga Hill.

3. Alejandro Valverde
After being out for two years Alejandro Valverde is now right back in the peloton and according to his teammates he is extremely motivated to show he still has got what it takes to win races. Normally Valverde would be the main favorite a race like this year’s Tour Down Under, but after being out for two years it’s difficult to predict. I think Valverde will be ready, but it might take a couple of months before he’s got his old race rhythm back. Stages like the one in Sterling and on Willunga Hill will show just how good the Spaniard is already.