Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites

This mini-classic is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.

It’s 10 years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.

BMC have been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez [at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.

In 2010 Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can come back and win the race.

Another strong contender is Alejandro Valverde. Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly and win the sprint for 2^nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year. Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint for the win.

My two personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin. As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4^th) and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel, he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could very well end up fighting for the win again.

Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg.
Photo from: climbbybike.com

This is also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end up doing something great in Flèche Wallone. 

Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.

Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Podium pick: Sergio Henao

Jokers: Igor Antón & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Liege-Bastogne-Liege Favorites

It’s time for the last Spring Classic of the season and just like last year, there is one guy everybody talks about; Philippe Gilbert.

In 2011 it was because of his outstanding shape and three wins in a row, while it this time is because he now finally seems to be back among the favorites again.

Last year he won Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone before he took his career’s first Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory. This year Gilbert ended 12th in Brabantse Pijl, 6th in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in Fleche Wallone. As Gilbert points out you can’t really divide 3 with 2 in the same way as mentioned above -that would be a 1,5 place. Not the win, but very close. Actually a pretty solid guess for how Liege-Bastogne-Liege will be for Gilbert tomorrow.

I have no doubts that he will be among the best riders, but does he and the BMC team really have what it takes to control the race, follow the attacks and then beat everyone in the final? Gilbert is the favorite, yes – but I think a certain Italian rider could end up surprising quite a few.

Vincenzo Nibali
I have picked out Nibali as favorite a couple of times already this season (Tour of Oman, Milano-San Remo and Tirreno-Adriatico) and every time he has ended in the top3 (2nd in Oman, 3rd in MSR and 1st in Tirreno), so don’t be surprised if it continues in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Nibali attacking.

Last winter Vincenzo Nibai said he wanted to focus more on the Ardennes Classics again and after a pretty anonymous Amstel Gold Race (104th) he showed good legs in Fleche Wallone last Wednesday (8th). I’m sure Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the one of the three Ardennes races most suitable for Nibali and “The Shark” himself also sounds very optimistic about his chances.

A few days ago the Liquigas riders were out training on the course and on Cote de Saint-Nicolas, a great tactical place to attack in the final, Vincenzo Nibali opened up for all engines and rode full speed to test the legs. I won’t be surprised if he does that again tomorrow when it really counts. It would also make sense to try an attack on the descent of La Roche-aux-Faucons. Leaving the rest of the favorites looking at each other. Nibali shouldn’t have any problems staying with the favorites and if he gets away in the final he will be very difficult to catch again!

Interview - Thomas Löfkvist (Team Sky)

Thomas Löfkvist, Team Sky

Thomas Löfkvist is no stranger for readers of this site. During the Tour de France last summer he was one of the 4 expert tipsters and this isn’t the first C-Cycling interview with him either. Let’s get started.

Thomas, first of all, how would you describe your season so far? 
All together I think it has been fine. The feeling on the bike has definitely been a lot better than the last two years.

After getting sick during Tirreno-Adriatico, you did very well in Criterium International getting 8th in the GC.
Tirreno was one of my big goals this season, so it was a big disappointment for me to get sick there. I really came to the race in good shape. Criterium International wasn’t really a planned goal for me, but I was still in good shape and the course really suited me.

So what is your next big aim of the season?
First I will do the Ardennes Classics and then Tour de Suisse, which is a big goal for me.

In 2010 you ended 16th overall in the Tour de France. Do you feel you still have the chance to improve that result or don’t you focus on the GC in the Tour anymore with Bradley Wiggins on the team?
On a personal level I would like to do Top10 in the Tour and I also think I have the capacity to do so. In 2012 it will be difficult since the team hopes to take both the Green [Cavendish] and the Yellow [Wiggins] jersey. That means I will be working in front on the flat parts and in the mountains, so it will be very difficult to get a good result for myself.

Do you still feel you get enough chances to prove yourself? 
We have a lot of strong riders this year, but I still get my chances. I had Tirreno-Adriatico earlier and Tour de Suisse next where I can go for a result. I like being with Team Sky, but my contract ends after this season, so we will see what happens.

Does that put any extra pressure on you to perform better this season? 
Well, the pressure is always there, but this year it’s a lot more important for my future.

You had some of your best years the last time you rode with Mark Cavendish. Now you two are back together. Did you miss him?
I have been missing him. Mark is a great guy to have on the team. He spreads a lot of positive energy and he is very nice to work with. Plus, when you work for him it often leads to victory, which brings good momentum to the team.

Another interesting rider on the team is Norwegian Lars-Petter Nordhaug. You know him well. How far do you think he can go? 
Yes I have known Lars-Petter since the junior years when we were battling each other on Mountainbikes in the forest. Lars-Petter is a huge talent who should be able to make it to the top. I think he can do well in the three week stage races, but he needs a little bit more experience first.

Last summer you became a father for the first time. How did that change your life? Does it make it more difficult being so much away from home?
To get a kid was a big thing. Life really gets a new meaning when you’re not only responsible for yourself. Sometimes it can be difficult to be away, but with Skype it works out fine. Now and then I find myself smiling on bike when I think about him. It really motivates me.

Looking ahead. Your next races are going to be the Ardennes Classics. Will you get your own chance there?
I will get my shot at Fleche Wallone. I did well there in 2009 (6th place) and I would like to top that. It’s been many years since I did Amstel, so we will see what happens. In Liege it’s all about who has the best legs, so I hope mine will be good!