Tour de France: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

After one week of intense riding, it’s now time for the big mountains as the peloton enters the Pyrenees. The general classification will be changed significantly and we will see which riders have the legs to win this Tour de France and who don’t.

The Route

Starting in Castres the riders head south towards the Pyrenees. The first 140 km are more or less flat and a morning breakaway will have plenty of time to get a big gap. This is the first big mountain stage of the Tour and there are a lot more KOM points up for grabs than we’ve seen in the past week. It’s a good opportunity for riders targeting the Polka Dot Jersey but it won’t be easy to make it all the way. I think Biel Kadri will attack in order to gain more points but I doubt he will repeat teammate Christophe Riblon's win from 2010.

After a 155.5 km the ascent of the first HC climb of this year’s Tour de France, Col de Pailhères begins. The 15.3 km towards the top have an average gradient of 8 % and steep parts of over 10 % near the top. There are still 30 km to the finishing line from the top of Col de Pailhères but if you get dropped here, your stage is pretty much over already.

The GC riders will have to be ready right from the beginning of Col de Pailhères and I would expect Team Sky to try setting their usually high pace up the climb.

The Finish

The final climb of the day, Ax 3 Domaines, starts immediately after the 20 km long descent from Col de Pailhères. There are 9.3 km to go from the bottom of Ax 3 Domaines but it climb itself is only 7.8 km long. It has an average gradient of 8.2 % and the first 5 km are very steep. It evens out a bit with 2 km to the top and then it kicks up again with 8 % the last km.

In 2010, when Stage 14 of the Tour de France finished on Ax 3 Domaines, Chrisophe Riblon make it all way after a long breakaway. Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck were practicing their stop-n-go tactic and the peloton didn’t seem interested in fighting for the stage win. I think that will change this time.

The Favorites

This being the first uphill finish, there is a big psychological value of getting an advantage over your opponents, no matter how small it is. Froome has six seconds on Contador in the general classification but even though the climb is steep, I don’t think the gap between the two will change much. The way I see it, Froome and Contador are more or less on the same level and I doubt one will be able to drop the other. Both know it’s vital not to lose anything time, not even a second, and they will probably be more focused on each other than on their rivals. Still, it’s not going to be like Contador and Schleck the last time on Ax 3 Domaines, that’s for sure.

I think the fight for the stage win will be between Froome and Contador. That being said, don’t rule out Purito and Valverde just yet. Both are very fast and with 1.5 km of flat towards the finishing line, it’s not unlikely this could end in a sprint.

I’m pretty sure Froome will put in a couple of strong attacks to drop his rivals and I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador is the only rider able to follow him. Valverde, Purito, Evans etc. won’t be far off but I doubt they will be able to respond to Froome’s or Contador’s strong accelerations. Should it end like that, with Froome and Contador arriving together, I think Froome will take the win. He outsprinted Contador - and Purito - in a flat finish in Tour of Oman earlier this year and he shouldn’t have problems beating Contador in a sprint this time either.

The Jokers

I think Team Sky, Saxo-Tinkoff and probably Movistar too will set such a high pace on Col de Pailhères that it kills a breakaway’s chances of succeeding. Therefore, I rather focus on strong climbers, already behind in the GC, for the joker spot. I have two strong outsiders for this stage and they both ride for Euskaltel. The Tour enters Basque territory in the Pyrenees and the roads will be colored orange. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón are both 1:29 minutes down in the GC and they are only here for stage wins. On paper, this Tour de France is great for climbers like Nieve and Antón but for Euskaltel a stage win is much more important than finishing 10^th overall. Both riders have won stages in Giro d’Italia and Vuelta España in the past and they are now aiming to enter the club of stage winners in all three Grand Tours. Samuel Sanchez took third place on Ax 3 Domaines in 2010 and with a little luck; Euskaltel can improve that result Saturday afternoon.

Favorite: Chris Froome

Jokers: Mikel Nieve & Igor Antón

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 8:

Flèche Wallonne: Preview & Favorites

This mini-classic is the most explosive one of the three Ardennes races this week. The steep Mur de Huy always makes for an exciting finish and like the last nine years, I’m sure it will all come down to the final 1300 meters this time.

It’s 10 years ago Igor Astarloa won Flèche Wallone after a big morning break managed to keep the peloton at bay, and even though Roman Kreuziger’s win in Amstel Gold Race could be an indicator of another break making it, I highly doubt it. Phillipe Gilbert is eager to get his first win in the rainbow jersey and together with the Colombia duo Sergio Henao & Nairo Quintana he is the man to beat on Wednesday.

BMC have been very strong lately and Phillipe Gilbert seems to back at his best. He will probably never going to be as strong as in 2011 but without Purito Rodriguez [at this moment Purito isn’t sure he’s able to ride after his crash in Amstel Gold Race], it difficult to pick another winner. No one was able to follow Gilbert on Cauberg last Sunday and even though Mur de Huy is a lot steeper, it still showed the strength of Gilbert right now.

In 2010 Igor Antón and Alberto Contador attacked early on Mur de Huy and got a nice little gap before Cadel Evans and Purito caught them near the top. Evans won the race back then and I think this year’s edition will have some of the same scenario. Sergio Henao and Nairo Quintana don’t stand a chance against Gilbert in ‘sprint’ on the final meters and they both know they need to get away on the steep part in order to win. Both were outstanding in Vuelta Pais Vasco earlier this month, especially on the steep gradients, and I would be surprised if none of the two tries to get away on the parts of 17%. Phillipe Gilbert knows he probably won’t be able to follow the Colombians on these gradients but if he can minimize the gap before the final ‘flat’ (5%) part, I still think he can come back and win the race.

Another strong contender is Alejandro Valverde. Just like at the World Champions last year, he wasn’t very well positioned when Gilbert attacked last Sunday, but this time he managed to close the gap quickly and win the sprint for 2^nd place. I think Liege-Bastogne-Liege is more suited for Valverde and it would make sense for him to pay back Quintana a little for all the hard work the Colombian has done for Valverde the last year. Still, don’t be surprised if Valverde manages to hang onto Gilbert and sprint for the win.

My two personal jokers for Flèche Wallone this year are Igor Antón and Daniel Martin. As mentioned earlier, Igor Antón put in a strong attack in 2010 (ended 4^th) and this year he’s aiming to do the same. His condition has increased significantly the last month or so and with the recent success for Euskaltel, he should be proper motivated to do well. Antón has big ambitions for the last two Ardennes races and if he enters Mur de Huy in a good position, he could very well end up fighting for the win again.

Mur de Huy. 1,3 km / 9,3% avg.
Photo from: climbbybike.com

This is also an important week for Daniel Martin. He was keen on showing his good shape in Amstel Gold Race, but crashed before the final. The Irish climber normally feeds on success and with his impressive overall win in Volta Catalunya, his confident should still be great heading into the last two Ardennes. races Martin reports he’s fine despite his crash last Sunday and I think he will end up doing something great in Flèche Wallone. 

Garmin have Ryder Hesjedal in the race too, but if Daniel Martin is still in front when reaching Mur de Huy, he should be the card to play. Not only does he climb very well he is also very fast on the line. He managed to keep Purito and Quintana behind after a long breakaway when he won the mountain stage in Catalunya and shows he’s not playing around. If an outsider ends up winning Flèche Wallone, like Roman Kreuziger won Amstel Gold Race, I think that outsider will be Daniel Martin.

Peter Sagan deserves to be mention as well, but I doubt he can follow the best on the steep parts. He suffered from cramps in the final of Amstel Gold Race and having never done Mur de Huy before, I don’t think he can win Flèche Wallone. The great shape Sagan showed in Brabantse Pijl can’t just disappear, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he either attacks from afar or ends up helping his teammates Damiano Caruso and Moreno Moser.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Podium pick: Sergio Henao

Jokers: Igor Antón & Daniel Martin

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 4 Preview

This is the typical finish on Arrate. It’s a classic in the recent year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco and it was also used in the Vuelta España last year. Normally the rule is; “First rider in the last corner takes the stage”, but last year in the Vuelta, Purito started to celebrate a millisecond too early and by that gave the stage to Valverde.

Samuel Sanchez has won this stage the last three years in a row and naturally, he is among the favorites again this year. Still, it’s important to remember that Sanchez is not here in tip-top condition like the last years. This time he’s 100% focused on peaking in the Giro d’Italia and with strong climbers in the race like Contador, Henao, Porte, Betancur, Quintana, etc it won’t be easy to make it four in a row.

In my eyes, Alberto Contador is still the big GC favorite after stage 3. Contador won on Arrate back in 2009 after he soloed away from the other favorites and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again this year. The first 6 km of the final climb have a steady gradient of 7,5% before the final “flat” (3%) 1,3 km. As mentioned in the previous previews, there aren’t any bonus seconds in the race, so if you want an advantage before the time trial, you need to attack when possible. 

I think Team Sky will try to control the race on final climb, like they have been doing all year long, and try to set Sergio Henao up for another lethal attack. Henao needs time before the time trial and right now he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. Movistar have strong riders like Rui Costa, Beñat Inxtausti and Nairo Quintana for this stage and I’m sure they will try something too. This climbs suits Quintana a lot more than the one on stage 3 and if he can cope with the expect rain, he will be very dangerous.

Andy Schleck normally test his legs on this climb and he’s been very focused - near the front of the peloton - so far this race. He attacked on the mountain stage in Criterium International last month and I have a feeling he will show himself on Arrate. Unfortunately the weather forecast shows we're in for a rainy stage and that could kill the hopes of seeing Schleck attacking. The descent before the final climb will become very tricky on wet roads and I doubt Andy Schleck will take any chances at this point of the season.

My personal joker for the stage is Pieter Weening. The morale on GreenEdge is sky high after two stage wins already and Weening did very well on La Lejana despite the steep gradients not being in his favor. Weening is fast on the line and if the we see a little group sprinting for the win again this year, I expcet Weening to be up there. The same goes for Diego Ulissi. The young Italian has been showing great shape lately and is always good in the rain. He has team mate Damiano Cunego to help him in the final and if Ulissi still up there in the final, he'll most likely win the stage.

Once again, it's difficult to pick only one rider as my favorite. Contador, Henao and Sanchez all seem like solid candidates, but I'll give Contador another shot to prove he's ready to win Vuelta Pais Vasco overall.

Favorite: Alberto Contador

Jokers: Pieter Weening / Diego Ulissi

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv