Vuelta a España: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

As suggested in the preview yesterday, we got the second Czech stage win in a row when Leopold König won stage 8. NetApp Endura had been working in front of the peloton for most of the day and this was truly an impressive victory for the wild card team.

Stage 9 is one I’ve personally been looking forward too. On paper, this is not a very demanding stage but the final 45 km are very tough. There aren’t any big climbs on the menu but with just 22 km to, the peloton faces Alto de la Frailes. The 6.2 km towards the top have an average gradient of 5.8 % and we can expect Katusha and Movistar to set a furious pace. Coming down from the top, the first 7 km are flat before the final kilometer rises towards the line. In 2010 and 2011 we had a single rider in front at this point (Uran in 2010 & Moncoutie in 2011) but you need almost a minute before the final kilometer if you want to make it all the way.

The final 1000 meters up to the finishing line is extremely steep. There are gradients of nearly 30 % and not surprisingly, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is the big favorite. In 2010, he attacked too early and ran out of gas as Igor Antón went away on the final 300 meters. In 2011, Purito took no chances. His teammate Dani Moreno hit the front as soon as the steep gradients started and only Purito, Vincenzo Nibali and Wout Poels managed to follow. Nibali couldn’t keep up the pace and like Antón the year before, Purito put in his final attack with 300 meters to go.



I expect the same scenario this year. The way I see it, nobody can beat Purito & Moreno on the finish like this one. Dani Moreno seems to be in the shape of his life right now and knowing that Purito is the team leader, I think they will try to repeat the performance from 2011. Vincenzo Nibali was the first to respond to Katusha’s attacks in 2010 and 2011 but it seems like he’s still missing a little bit at this point.

It starts to show that Alejandro Valverde wants to win the World Champions more than the Vuelta. However, few have Valverde’s killer instinct when he sees the line. The steep gradients are definitely better suited for Purito than for Valverde but compared to Nibali and Basso, Valverde should be able to gain a little time.

Nicolas Roche is new rider in the Red Jersey and as I pointed out in the overall preview, the Irishman seems to be extremely motivated to finally crack top5 overall in a Grand Tour. Roche finished 8^th in Valdepeñas de Jaén in both 2010 and 2011. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff leader will probably lose 7-10 seconds to Purito on this stage and therefor Roche shouldn’t have problems keeping the Red Jersey. The only way - as I see it - that Roche can lose the jersey is if Moreno wins the stage - gets the 10 bonus seconds - and distances Roche with 7 seconds.

Another important factor at this point in the race is the fatigue. This is the 9^th stage in a row without a rest day and many riders will be on the limits. Add to that the extreme temperatures the last couple of days. Samuel Sanchez, Roman Kreuziger & Bauke Mollema are already almost out of the GC and we could see a few more lose ground this Sunday. The time differences won’t be very big but if you have a bad day, you can easily lose 45 seconds on the final kilometer. It may not sound of much but it’s of huge psychological value.

It’s difficult to point at a joker for this stage. Purito and Moreno are in a league of their own on this kind of finishes and without Carlos Betancur in good shape, no one really has what it takes to beat them. Sergio Henao and Domenico Pozzovivo are both strong on the steep gradients but they need to attack right from the bottom if they want to win this stage. Pozzovivo’s teammate Rinaldo Nocentini is usually good on a finish like this but against the GC riders, I doubt he win. Igor Antón came close on stage 8 but I don’t think he has the same kick he had in 2010 when he won. Wout Poels too is far from his Vuelta shape from 2011 when he finished 2^nd. A super joker could be Ivan Santaromita. The Italian champion is in great shape right now and with only 58 kg to carry, he has what it takes to stay in front on the steep gradients.

Last but not least, we can’t forget about the World Champion Philippe Gilbert. Like last year, he seems to be getting better and better as the Vuelta progresses. Had this been 2011, we all know who would win the stage. However, Gilbert doesn’t have the same kick he had two years ago and with parts of 30 %, I can’t see him beat Purito and Moreno. He may take 3^rd place on the stage but to me, it would be a little surprising to see him take his first win in the rainbow jersey here.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 9, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 7 Preview & Favorites

What an effort from Tony Martin on stage 6. Alone in front from the start to the end, well almost to the end. Fabian Cancellara got a jump on the Argos-Shimano train and performed a perfect leadout for Michael Mørkøv who won the stage. This is only the second professional win in Mørkøv’s career. The first one came in June earlier this year when he won the Danish Championship. Impressive.

Stage 7 is another flat stage and after missing out on Thursday, I’m sure the sprinters’ teams won’t take any chances. The peloton continues south into Andalucía and without a single categorized climb, this won’t be a difficult day in the saddle. The GC riders will have their mind fixed on tomorrow’s mountain stage and they will hope for a quiet day in the peloton.

Everybody managed to stay upright despite the technical finish on stage 6 and hopefully the same will happen Friday afternoon. Once again the race organizers have put in numerous obstacles on the final kilometers. Six roundabouts within the last three kilometers are what the riders have to overcome. The last one, turning right, is placed just 700 meters from the line. The road slightly bends to the left on the last 300 meters and first rider out of this bend most likely wins the stage.

It’s another technical finish but luckily the riders will have a chance to get to know it before it counts. There is an intermediate sprint on the finishing line with 31.4 km to go and knowing the route will hopefully keep everybody upright in the final.

Argos-Shimano almost managed to set up Ramon Sinkeldam perfectly on stage 6. Tony Martin’s strong effort made them take the lead a little too early and they paid for their work in the end. Sinkeldam was extra motivated to win on his wife’s birthday but despite great legs, he couldn’t do better than 15^th place. As I mentioned yesterday, this isn’t Argos-Shimano’s top leadout team. It’s a young team but they still show a lot of power taking the lead. I think it will be a “normal” bunch sprint on stage 7 and if they manage to set up Ramon Sinkeldam again, he could take the peloton by surprise.

The final 5 kilometers of stage 7. Click for larger view.

Like Argos-Shimano, also GreenEdge have a couple of strong guys for the sprints. Michael Matthews is obviously the fastest one right now but a flat sprint like this one is probably better for Leigh Howard. Matthews said that everything now is just a bonus but I’m sure the Australians are very eager to take another win. Matthews is now riding in the green points jersey and the despite the many mountains, this could be a goal for him. It won’t be easy but if GreenEdge decides to go for him in all the sprints, I can’t see why he shouldn’t win a handful more stages.

Max Richeze has been second the last two days in a row and he’s definitely one of the favorites for this stage. The Argentinian sprinter is getting better and better as the race goes on. He doesn’t have that final leadout rider to deliver him in the sprints but he’s very fast on the final meters. Richeze needs to get on the right wheel and he if manages so, he could very well end up winning this stage.

Tyler Farrar couldn’t to better than fourth place on stage 6 but to be fair, Farrar was very fast in the end. The American’s big problem is his positioning. Personally, I don’t understand why Garmin doesn’t wait until the end before taking the lead. Alex Rasmussen is a brilliant leadout rider and if Farrar enters the last bend on the wheel of Rasmussen, he will be extremely difficult to beat.

Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely try to set up Gianni Meersman again on stage 7. The Belgian sprinter doesn’t seem to be as fast as Matthews and Richeze right now but with a little bit of luck, Omega Pharma Quickstep may finally take a stage win.

I also have to mention Michael Mørkøv among the candidates after his impressive win on stage 6. The Danish Champion said he was sure he would win when he saw the finish line on the wheel of Cancellara. Obviously he’s in great shape right now. Usually, Mørkøv works hard for his teammates but after his win in Cáceres, I’m sure he will be eager to try again in Mairena Del Aljarafe.

The way I see it, there is 95 % chance of this stage ending in a bunch sprint. A break will definitely get away in the beginning but they know it’s almost doomed. It’s usually local riders and riders from the smaller teams who get into these kind of breakaways and as one of the semi-locals, look out for Luis Angel Maté. El Lince Andaluz is not afraid of attacking despite poor chances of succeeding and I’m sure we will see the Cofidis rider in a break soon. If not this Friday then definitely in the weekend.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 7, Laura picks Michael Matthews to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 6 Preview & Favorites

After missing out on stage 4, Michael Matthews did a perfect sprint to win stage 5. GreenEdge worked all day in front of the peloton all day long and in the sprint, nobody came close to the young Australian. Garmin tried to set up Tyler Farrar but they will soon have to realize that Farrar’s day as a top sprinter seems to be over.

Stage 6 is the second of three days in a row made for the fast guys and we can expect another bunch sprint. The stage starts out in Guijuelo and the riders will be able to enjoy a slight tailwind all the 174 km south towards Cáceres. There isn’t a single categorized climb on the menu and even though it’s not flat either, it’s definitely not as hard as the last two days.

With 7 km to go, the road starts to kick up a little but only 2.5 %. It won’t make for a selection in the peloton but the technical final four kilometer may do. Are no less than six difficult turns within the last four kilometers and of course a handful of roundabouts to overcome as well. This being the Vuelta and everything, of course the final turn comes just 400 meters from the line. Heading into a roundabout the peloton goes the long around instead of just turning left. This will really stretch out the peloton. If you enter this roundabout in second or third position, you have a very good chance of winning the stage.

Michael Matthews has been the fastest of the sprinters the last two days and he’s morale is now sky high. Originally GreenEdge had Leigh Howard down for this stage but it doesn't really make sense not to go for Matthews again. He’s obviously the fastest right now. Then again, the team spirit on GreenEdge is amazing and thinking about it, it wouldn’t actually surprise me to see Matthews leading out Howard to win.

Gianni Meersman tried to pass Matthews in the final of stage 5 but he didn’t even come close. I think it will be very difficult for Meersman to win this stage and it wouldn’t surprise me if Omega Pharma Quickstep gave youngster Andy Fenn a chance.

The final four kilometers. Click for larger view.

Argos-Shimano is right now the best sprint team in the world. They have finally perfected their leadouts and again on stage 5 they tried to make a surprise. They have a young team for this Vuelta and you don’t see any of the regular Tour de France riders among the nine starters. However, they still managed to hit the front with 5 riders on the final kilometers. Nikias Arndt was the man for stage 5 but it’s not necessarily him they will be going for every day. Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam are also very fast on the line.

Lampre’s Maximiliano Ariel Richeze is another fast rider in great shape right now. He wasn’t on top of his game in Eneco Tour but he still managed to finish 2^nd and 4^th in the sprints. This Vuelta is Richeze’s first Grand Tour since he did the Giro d’Italia in 2007 and he’s super motivated to do well. The Argentinian had to fight hard to get on Matthews wheel in the final of stage 5 and with a little bit more luck he might have been able to get closer. It won’t be easy for Richeze to win stage 6 but I think we will see the him in top3 again.

Edvald Boasson Hagen has finished 6^th the last two days in a row. The Norwegian rider was a bit disappointed with his sprint on stage 5 and he will be very motivated to do better this time. Boasson Hagen seems to be getting stronger every day and without any top sprinters in the peloton, he may give Team Sky their first win in this Vuelta Thursday afternoon.

Last of the outsiders for the win in Cáceres is also the rider finishing last on stage 5. Barry Markus is only 22 years old but he  hasalready been close to beating some of the big sprinters. In Tour of Qatar he finished 2^nd after Mark Cavendish twice and after coming back from his injury, Markus took 2^nd place on stage 1 of Arctic Race of Norway earlier this month. Vacansoleil-DCM has been setting up Grega Bole the last two days but with a more flat stage, it’s now time for the fast Dutchman.

As of Wednesday evening the weather forecast shows 50 % chance of rain for the final. Hopefully the roads will stay dry. If not, it seems unlikely nobody will crash on the last four kilometers.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 6, Laura picks Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 3 Preview & Favorites

Stage 2 gave us a lot of answers. Euskaltel had high hopes for Samuel Sanchez in their last Vuelta but the former Olympic Champion got dropped early on the final climb. Sergio Henao came to the race as one of the outsiders for the podium but the Colombian climber didn’t have a great day and ended up getting dropped with 4 km to go. Both Henao and Sanchez lost 2:41 min to Nicolas Roche who took a brilliant stage win.

Vincenzo Nibali is new rider in the Red Jersey and unless Astana decides to give it away, Nibali could very well end up having this jersey all the way to Madrid. Roche is second overall, eight seconds down, while Zubeldia, Horner and Kiserlovski all finished with the favorites on stage 2 and sit 10 seconds behind Nibali.

Monday’s stage 3 looks a little bit like stage 2. It’s another flat one alongside the Galician coast but this time a headwind will make it hard for a breakaway to get a big gap. The TV-viewers will be spoiled by images of the amazing scenery and like on stage 2, there will be time to enjoy it. Unless the wind splits up the peloton, the stage probably won’t get interesting until the final 20 km.

The final 5 km of stage 3 up to Mirador de Lobeira-

The riders will be struggling with the headwind for most of the day but with four kilometers to go, the peloton turns right and the final four kilometers uphill will take place in a strong tailwind. The ascent up to Mirador de Lobeira only has an average gradient of 4.8 % but it has some steep parts. 

Also, it’s extremely important to be near the front. With about 1.5 km to go the riders turns right on the very narrow Camiño Novo. There are parts of 8% on this little road and you need to be among the first five riders if you want to win this stage. If not, you simply can’t move up in the peloton before it’s too late. There are 10 bonus seconds on the line and should Nicolas Roche be able to make two out of two, he will take the Red Jersey. It’s not very likely but if Saxo-Tinkoff delivers him in front, it could happen.

Even though the final climb isn’t very long nor very steep, I highly doubt the few pure sprinters will have a chance. Guys likes Gianni Meersman and Michael Matthews however, may have a chance. Both riders are in great shape, cope well with the hills and are very fast on the line. On paper, Phillipe Gilbert should have a chance but I don’t think he’s ready after his crash in Eneco Tour. Edvald Boasson Hagen is another rider who could do well on this finish but he’s not 100 % either. 

UPDATE: It's now been confirmed that the race organizers have widened the road the last 1.5 km towards the finishing line. You can see a photo of the new road here. The road is now twice as wide as before and this clearly favors guys like Meersman and Matthews.

The view from Mirador de Lobeira is spectacular. This is one of the last turns on the narrow road towards the line.
Photo via Google Maps.

Movistar cranked up the pace on the final climb on stage 2 but they didn’t have anyone ready to follow when Dani Moreno attacked. Alejandro Valverde easily won the sprint among the favorites and should Movistar decide to go hard on the part of 8 %, Valverde will be the man to beat. The strong Spaniard has been eager to point out that for him, the World Championship is more important than the Vuelta. Still, few in the professional peloton has a killer instinct like Valverde when he sees the finishing line. If sprinters like Meersman and Matthews aren’t in the peloton, I can’t see who should beat Valverde.

Simon Gerrans is here to prepare for the World Championship and on paper, this is a very good stage for him. However, I’m not quite sure if Gerrans is up for it already. Matthews is definitely GreenEdge’s best card to play and he comes to the Vuelta with two fresh stage wins from Utah in the bag.

In case Gianni Meersman doesn’t have a good day, Omega Pharma Quickstep has two other very interesting riders in Pieter Serry and Zdenek Stybar. Both are very good on these kind of climbs and both are  packing a solid sprint as well. I doubt they can outsprint Alejandro Valverde but with a late attack they may take the peloton by surprise. 

For other outsiders look to the two Italians Rinaldo Nocentini and Diego Ulissi. Nocentini did very well in Burgos lately and finished 5^th in Tre Valli Varesine just a week before the Vuelta started. Rinaldo Nocentini is fighting for a spot on the Italian team for the World Championship and this stage is almost tailor-made for the Ag2r veteran. Domenico Pozzovivo came close on stage 2 and it won’t be a big surprise if Nocentini comes close on stage 3.

Diego Ulissi used Tour of Poland as preparation for the Vuelta and he started out by outsprinting the whole peloton to take the leader’s jersey. He later faded but then finished in a strong way. Lampre tried to set up Ulissi for the stage win on stage 2 but he waited too long and had to settle with 6^th place after Valverde. 

Ulissi is still young and he’s not a rider for a three weeks Grand Tour just yet. He knows how to target one-day-races and specific stages and I’m sure he has his eyes on this one. It won’t be easy to win but if the strong climbers can get rid of guys like Meersman & Matthews, Diego Ulissi definitely has a chance to win on Mirador de Lobeira.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 3, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde Gianni Meersman to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 1 (TTT) Preview & Favorites

As usually, the Vuelta starts out with a team time trial. This year, the distance is longer than the previous three years and that means we will see much bigger differences in the classification early on.

The teams get to the starting ramp in Vilanova De Arousa by boat and from here the route takes them south towards Sanxenxo. The profile is rather flat - very different from last year - and we can expect the teams with big engines like Omega Pharma Quickstep (Tony Martin) and Radioshack (Fabian Cancellara) to do well. The riders will be enjoying a tailwind for the majority of the route and that too favors the two mentioned teams.

The only technical part of the course is the final two kilometers with a couple of tricky turns but overall, this is not a difficult team time trial.

The map of Stage 1
Click for larger view.

Omega Pharma Quickstep are the defending world champions in this discipline and they have been training hard to defend their title in less than a month in Florence. It’s true they don’t bring all their best time trialists for this Vuelta but with riders like Tony Martin, Kristof Vandewalle, Gianni Meersman and in-shape Zdenek Stybar, they will be very difficult to beat.

The way I see it, only Radioshack and Astana have a chance of beating OPQS. Despite a strong team, Radioshack never really manage to win these stages. However, with Fabian Cancellara, Ben Hermans, Chris Horner and Markel Irizar they definitely bring a solid team. Horner aims at taking the Red Jersey after the uphill finish on Stage 2 and if that is to happen, Radioshack need to put in a strong performance in this time trial.

Astana hope to give Vincenzo Nibali the best start possible with a win on the first day. To achieve that, they bring strong time trialists like Janez Brajkovic, Jakob Fuglsang, Andriy Grivko, Tanel Kangert and Nibali himself. Astana always do well in the team time trials and even though OPQS is the big favorite, I won’t be surprised if Astana wins this stage.

Movistar won the opening stage last year but on a much hillier course. They did well in the Giro d’Italia too but this time they don’t have riders like Alex Dowsett or Jonathan Castroviejo to crank up the speed in the flat parts. They bring a strong team, no doubts about that, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to repeat the impressive win from last year.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff aim at spot close to Top3 but that won’t be easy. They have a couple of solid riders like Roman Kreuziger and Michael Mørkøv but climbers like Rafal Majka, Chris Anker Sørensen and Oliver Zaugg don’t like this discipline. The Danish team may do Top5 but I will be surprised to see them in Top3.

Team Sky won the team time trial in the Giro d’Italia and finished third in the Tour de France this year. However, they don’t have riders like Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome or Richie Porte to keep the speed high this time. It’s true that many of the riders are the same who won the TTT in the Giro but without a real specialist I think Top5 is the best they can do.

Starting Order:
NetApp 18:48
GreenEdge 18:52
Argos-Shimano 18:56
BMC 19:00
Caja Rural 19:04
Cofidis 19:08
Vacansoleil-DCM 19:12
Omega Pharma Quickstep 19:16
Lampre 19:20
AG2R 19:24
Team Saxo-Tinkoff 19:28
Lotto-Belisol 19:32
FDJ 19:36
Team Sky 19:40
Cannondale 19:44
Garmin 19:48
Euskaltel 19:52
Belkin 19:56
Radioshack 20:00
Katusha 20:04
Movistar 20:08
Astana 20:12

Eurosport are covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For the opening Stage 1, Laura picks Movistar to win.

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España 2013 - Preview and Favorites

It’s time for the third and final Grand Tour of the season. This year’s Vuelta a España is a real climbers delight with no less than 12 stages finishing uphill. The favorites are many and there are no doubts that this is the most open of the three Grand Tours this year.

Once again, the race starts out with a team time trial but compared to the last couple of years, the time differences will be much bigger this time. We have an uphill finish already on the second day and this means you can’t afford to start out too far off your game. The first sprint stage isn’t due until Stage 5 and we can expect relatively big time differences in the overall classification already at this point. However, it’s nothing compared to the last week. Six out of the last eight stages finish on the top of a climb and with Angliru on the penultimate day, nothing is certain before the final stage to Madrid.

For this year’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France, it was pretty easy picking out the few big favorites. Without Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali had no real competition in the Giro and since Alberto Contador wasn’t as strong as usually in the Tour, Chris Froome wasn’t really threatened at any point in the Tour. This Vuelta, however, is wide open. Vincenzo Nibali is my personal favorite for the overall win but it won’t be easy to repeat his 2010-performance. I expect Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez, Ivan Basso, Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez to fight for the Red Jersey and I’m sure a we will see a couple of outsiders in the mix as well.

I don’t remember a Grand Tour with so many strong riders fighting for Top10. Just by a quick glans of the start list, I see at least 25 riders with an actual chance of finishing within the ten first. Veterans like Chris Horner and Michele Scarponi both start out the Vuelta with podium ambitions and even though I doubt it will happen, I won’t rule them out as possible Top5 in Madrid.

These are the 21 stages of this year's Vuelta a España. 

Another very interesting ‘veteran’ is Ivan Basso. This season has been a nightmare for former Giro d’Italia winner and he’s now hoping to make it all right with a good performance in the Vuelta. Usually you never see Ivan Basso until it really counts. This year Chris Froome won everything leading up the Tour. Basso's preparation is completely different. He knows how to prepare in his own way and he always manages to deliver when it’s time. Still, in Tour of Poland Basso finished fifth on the first mountain stage and without doing much more in the race, he took 8^th place overall. In Vuelta a Burgos he decided to test himself on the final mountain stage and he looked very strong when he dropped Vincenzo Nibali to finish third on Lagunas de Neila. Ivan Basso is not great on the short steep finishes but this Vuelta is lot more than that, and I’m sure Basso will make a great race and finish in the top.

Originally, I had Carlos Betancur down for a podium place but the Colombian climber has been sick recently and therefore hasn’t been able to prepare the way he wanted. Also, he hasn’t raced since the Giro. For Betancur, the World Champions in Italy is the big goal for this second part of the season. He may not start out this Vuelta in great shape but I’m sure he will be flying by the end of the race. It could easily be enough to make Top10 overall but I doubt he’ll be a player for the podium. Another strong GC rider from Ag2r is Domenico Pozzovivo. The Italian climber finished 7^th overall in Tour of Poland and I expect him do very well in this Vuelta.

A Colombian rider has finished 2^nd overall in the first two Grand Tours of 2013 and in case Carlos Betancur isn’t ready, it’s up to Sergio Henao to keep up the tradition. Henao started out this year in a very strong way by winning the mountain stage in Volta ao Algarve. He then went on to win a stage in Vuelta Pais Vasco, where he finished 3^rd overall, before taking second place in Flèche Wallone. As expected, he faded in the end of the Giro but recently he looked strong in Tour of Poland with a 5^th place overall. Last year, Sergio Henao finished 14^th in the Vuelta after helping out team leader Chris Froome. This year, Henao is the leader and he has a very strong team to support him. Dario Cataldo - who I think will do very well in this race - and Rigoberto Uran will be at his service in the mountains. Team Sky have finished 2^nd (Uran, Giro) and 1^st (Froome, Tour) in the last two Grand Tours and they are eager to continue that streak. Both Purito and Valverde had to dig deep in the Tour de France and in case they end up paying for that in the final week of the Vuelta, Henao and others will be ready to take advantage of the situation.

This year’s Vuelta will be the last one with Euskaltel-Euskadi on the start list. The orange color of the Basque team will be dearly missed in the mountains but not just yet. With Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Nieve, Igor Antón and Mikel Landa among the nine starters, Euskaltel show they are ready to fight. The goal is to put Samuel Sanchez on the final podium in Madrid and it won’t be a surprise if they succeed. Sanchez is experienced and already knows what it takes to make Top3 in the Vuelta. He should be able to gain some time on his rivals in the individual time trial and if he hits his top level, he won’t be easy to drop in the mountains either.

Before I end, I’ll quickly mention Team Saxo-Tinkoff. The Danish team has a strong line up with Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. When announcing the team, DS Tristan Hoffman said he saw Kreuziger as the natural leader. However, the Czech rider himself says he won’t be targeting the overall classification. Kreuziger has already had a long and very successful season and he’s now focusing on the World Champions. Instead of going for the GC, Kreuziger will aim at a stage win and to help out Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche. Especially Roche is eager to perform well. The Irishman has been aiming at the Vuelta the whole season and after dropping a few kilos, he’s now not afraid of talking about Top5 overall. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to his own expectations.  

The map of this year's Vuelta a España starting in Galicia and finishing in Madrid after 21 stages.

As always, I have a few jokers for you as well. First up is David Arroyo. After more than 10 years on Movistar (and its former names), Arroyo moved to the little Spanish team, Caja Rural for this season. He didn’t do much to show his name in the first part of the year but lately he’s been getting better and better. He came close to winning Vuelta a Burgos overall a few weeks ago and he looked very strong in the mountains. Only super climber Nairo Quintana could distance Arroyo uphill on the final day and now the Spaniard hopes to shine in the Vuelta. David Arroyo surprised everyone when he finished second overall in the Giro d’Italia three years ago. I doubt he can repeat that performance this time but I definitely see him as a strong Top10 candidate. Maybe even more if everything goes his way again.

My second joker for the overall classification is Tomasz Marczynski. It’s a been a great year for Polish cycling and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continues in the Vuelta. Last year, Marczynski made a few mistakes in the last week of the race but still managed to finish 13^th overall. There are a lot more candidates this year but I still think Marczynski has what it takes to make Top10. Vacansoleil-DCM are desperately searching for a new sponsor for next year and they bring their strongest team possible to the Vuelta. Riders like Wout Poels, Thomas De Gendt and Lieuwe Westra could all lead the team but according to my information, the Dutch team is putting their faith in Tomasz Marczynski.

Other good jokers for the overall classification are Movistar’s three super domestiques; Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi & Beñat Intxausti. Sames goes for Lampre’s [future super] climber Winner Anacona and Team NetApp’s Leopold König.

There are about six stages for the sprinters is this year’s Vuelta a España. Still, we don’t have any super sprinters starting the race. Tyler Farrar will have a unique opportunity to regain status as a “top sprinter” without the competition of Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan etc. etc. Farrar’s rivals will be Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, Theo Bos, Leigh Howard and the youngsters Barry Markus, Michael Matthews and Adrien Petit. Personally, I expect a lot from Barry Markus. He has recently signed a deal with Team Belkin for 2014 saying he wants to learn from Theo Bos. However, in my opinion, he will already show that he is a level above Bos in this Vuelta.

In the beginning, I wrote I saw at least 25 riders with a chance of making Top10 in this race. I’ll leave you with the list of those riders. The order is irrelevant.

Nibali	Majka
Valverde	Arroyo
Purito	Mollema
Basso	Cataldo
Henao	Capecchi
Sanchez	Intxausti
Betancur	Moreno x2
Horner	Zubeldia
Pozzovivo	Marczynski
Roche	Ten Dam
Scarponi	Uran
Pinot	Dan Martin
Landa	De Clercq
Nieve Vanendert	Antón De Gendt

I will be publishing daily Stage Previews during the race. Each preview will be online the evening before the stage starts. For live coverage of Vuelta a España 2013 go to steephill.tv

Get ready for La Vuelta

Vuelta a España 2013 kicks off in about two weeks and it’s time to start getting ready for the third and last Grand Tours this year.

The riders have been fine-tuning their shape the last couple of weeks and if you want to see who’s already doing great, be sure to follow Vuelta a Burgos and Eneco Tour this and next week. There are free online live streams for all the stages in Vuelta a Burgos while Eurosport is broadcasting Eneco Tour starting on Monday (12^th of August).

If you want to try out this Vuelta España for yourself, why not pick one of the 22 teams and give it a go in the new Pro Cycling Manager game? Click on the banner below to download the game and see if you have what it takes to win the Red Jersey in Madrid.

I will publish my Overall Preview of La Vuelta in a week or so and of course, there will be daily stage previews throughout the race. Stay tuned for more!

Tour de France: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

This year’s Tour de France ends with the three best climbers on the final podium. Everybody knew it would be a race for the climbers and it really was. Alberto Contador didn’t have the legs this year and he only finishes fourth overall - surprisingly enough, a fair result after the last das in the Alps. It’s probably only Alejandro Valverde who can look back a feel he didn’t end where he deserved.

Now it’s time for Paris and this year’s finish will be spectacular. The 100^th edition of the Tour de France ends with an evening stage in the French capital and we are in for a real treat. The riders may not like the late finish but for the TV-viewers it will be great.

The Route

The stage starts at Palace of Versailles and finishes 133.5 km later on Champs-Élysées, most likely with a bunch sprint. For the first time in many years, there are two categorized climbs on the menu this final day. The first one is Côte de Saint-Rémy-lès-Chevreuse and after 33.5 km the riders will pass the Jacques Anquetil monument on the top of Côte de Châteaufort. We will probably see Polka Dot winner Nairo Quintana first over the climb showing off his new jersey for the first time in the race.

The Finish

As always, the real action won’t start until the riders hit Champs-Élysées. From here on, it’s “race on” and the 10 laps will be completed in a furious pace. To celebrate this 100 Years Anniversary, the route takes the riders around Arc de Triomphe instead of turning just before as we have seen in the past.  The sprinters’ teams will try to control the race but they also have to save a little energy for the final. The leadout trains have never been more important than they are this year and it will be crucial to have enough manpower left for the final.

The Favorites

Mark Cavendish has won the last four years in a row and he is the favorite again this year. Compared to Marcel Kittel he has a lot more experience and he knows he can deliver after three hard weeks. Omega Pharma Quickstep still have all nine riders in the race and that will be an important factor. Argos-Shimano had to say goodbye to Tom Veelers just two days before Paris and it’s now up to John Degenkolb and Koen de Kort to leadout Marcel Kittel. Actually, the key word may not be leadout but instead deliver. Usually Kittel wins after a perfect leadout but he has come from behind in all his three stage wins in this Tour. Compared to Greipel, Kittel doesn’t seem to need a strong leadout and that favors him compared to his German compatriot.

Lotto-Belisol lost Marcel Sieberg the other day and that means they won’t be able to take the lead with 4 riders on the last kilometer as they have done earlier in the race. Greipel hasn’t been able to come from behind in the Tour this year and with only Roelandts and Henderson I doubt he will be able to win on Champs-Élysées.

The last of the four big sprinters is Peter Sagan. He has already won the Green Jersey and he now longer needs just to “cruise” into Top5 on the stage. Last year Peter Sagan finished second on the stage and said he could have won without having to close the big gap after Greipel had problems with his bike. Sagan may have enough raw power to take the win on the final meters but against Kittel and Cavendish, it will be very difficult.

The Joker

This time my joker is Alexander Kristoff. He has been left alone to do the sprints the whole race but now Katusha can finally use riders to help deliver him on the right wheel. These power sprints are close to impossible to win without a team around you and that’s why we haven’t seen Kristoff in Top3 except for the very first stage. The morale must be high at Katusha right now after Purito secured a spot on the final podium and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kristoff finishes like he started with a top performance.

It’s difficult to pick between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel for the stage win. Cavendish has the experience but Kittel has proven to be the fastest on the final meters. Omega Pharma Quickstep will most likely have two riders in front of Cavendish heading into the last corner and I’m sure Cavendish is to take revenge after he missed out on Yellow on stage 1. Therefore, the Manxman is my favorite.

Thank you for reading my previews during the Tour!

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Joker: Alexander Kristoff

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 21:

Tour de France: Stage 20 Preview & Favorites

We didn’t see a real fight between the GC riders on stage 19 but it’s safe to say that will change now. With only 47 seconds between Contador (second) and Purito (fifth), we can expect quite a show on the final climb.

The Route

This is the shortest regular stage of this year’s Tour de France but with six categorized climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The fight for podium will be furious and we will most likely see tactically attacks right from the beginning. Côte du Puget (5.4 km / avg. 5.9 %) and Col de Leschaux (3.6 km / avg. 6.1 %) are both located within the first 18 km of the stage and the heavy riders will have to dig very deep in order to finish this stage and see Paris tomorrow. The intermediate sprint is up after 33.5 km but it will be of little importance since Peter Sagan already seems sure to win the Green Jersey.

After two category 3 climbs the riders start on Mont Revard with 64 km to go. The 15.9 km towards the top of this category 1 climb have an average gradient of just 5.6 % but the climb is very steep in the beginning. There are still 46.5 km to go from the top of Mont Revard. The descent is not easy and the last climb of the day starts just 10 km after coming down from Mont Revard.

The final  HC climb of this year's Tour.

The Finish

The final climb up to Annecy-Semnoz is very steep and there is only one tiny part where you can catch your breath a little. The 10.7 km have an average gradient of 8.5 % and this is where the final podium will be settled. You can lose a lot of time if you have a bad day on this climb. There are not many steep hairpin corners but the gradients are steady of around 8 % and with parts of 10 % near the top. Remember, there are double up on the KOM points on the top of Annecy-Semnoz and that means 50 points to winner.

The Favorites

I think the GC riders will fight for the stage win today. Riders like Purito, Quintana, Valverde and Contador are yet to win a stage in this year’s Tour de France and even though the podium is more important, they don’t want to lose the chance by giving a break too much of gap early on. The final climb is very steep and that favors the tiny climbers like Purito and Quintana. Chris Froome will be happy just to keep his yellow jersey and I would be surprised to see him go for the stage win.

As it stands before the stage, Purito is one with most to win. He is fifth overall but only 47 seconds from Contador in second place. Purito has timed his condition perfectly and he knows the final climb well after training on it before the Tour. I think Purito and his teammate Dani Moreno will attack in the beginning of the last climb - on the steep parts - and try to make an early selection. Contador has not been great the last couple of days and if he’s not 100 %, it will show already.

Nairo Quintana has the White Jersey secured and he’s now gunning for second place overall and the KOM Jersey. If Quintana ends first or second on the stage, he seems sure to win the Polka Dot Jersey as well and honestly I would be very surprised should the Colombian  super climber not make top2 on this stage.

The way I see it, Purito and Quitana are the two favorites. I doubt Froome will go for the stage and I can’t see Contador beating Purito or Quintana as it is right now. Contador may be able to hold onto his podium place but it won’t be easy with the shape Purito is showing right now.

The Jokers

Since I find it highly unlikely that a breakaway makes it all the way for the third day in a row, I don’t really see any jokers for the stage win. This is between the big favorites and that’s the way it should be. However, should something happen and a break ends up getting too far away, look out for Wout Poels and Arnold Jeannesson. Both are out of the GC (29^th and 30^th overall) but they have been looking very good the last couple of days. At this point in the race, it’s all about who has something left in the legs. Jeannesson stayed with the favorites for quite a while on Friday’s stage but had to let go on the final kilometers of the last climb. Poels probably paid the price for his attack the other day and since none of them can go with favorites when they start to attack, I think both will try to hit the morning breakaway. It won’t be easy though. I think the Saxo-Tinkoff, Movistar and Katusha all will try something from the very beginning of the stage but should a break get away, I would be surprised not to see at least one my two jokers in it.

Favorites: Quintana & Purito

Jokers: Jeannesson & Poels

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 20:

Tour de France: Stage 19 Preview & Favorites

Christophe Riblon did what he does best and took an impressive stage win after a long breakaway in the mountains. Stage 19 doesn’t finish uphill but it will be just as hard for the riders.

The Route

We are in the end of the third week and everybody is already on his limits. Add to that an extremely tough uphill time trial and double up on Alpe d’Huez the days before. These 204.5 km will feel like forever for the riders and it all starts out with two HC climbs. Bon appetite!

There are 21.6 km to the top of Col du Glandon and due to a couple of small descents, the average gradient is “only” 5.1 %. There are steep parts of 11 % in the middle and after a long part of 5 %, the climb kicks up with 8 % near the top. The first rider over the top gets 25 points for the KOM Jersey and with no less than 75 points up for grabs today, this is a very important day for the riders targeting that competition. Chris Froome leads the competition in front of Nairo Quintana and since they both will get points on Saturday’s uphill finish, riders like Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland really need to attack from a far if they want to win the jersey.

After the descent from Col du Glandon, there are just 10 km to the next HC climb starts. Col de Madeleine is feared by many and with its 19.2 km of 7.9 %,it’s not difficult to understand why. There are still 121 km to go from the top of Madeleine and we will most likely see a breakaway get a good gap at this point.

The Finish

The last 70 km include three climbs in a row. First up is Col de Tamié (8.6 km / avg. 6.2 %) and after that it’s time for the steep Col de l’Épine with an average of 7.3 % and parts over 10 % near the top. The riders stay on a plateau for about 10 km after reaching the top of Col de l’Épine and after a short descent, they face the final climb of the day. Col de la Croix Fry is 11.3 km and has an average gradient of 7 %. There are steep parts halfway through to the top and we should see the favorites attack each other on this climb.

From the top of Col de la Croix Fry there are just 13 km to go and with only a few tricky corners on the descent, we can expect a fast finish. As of Thursday evening, there are 50 % chance of rain during the stage and that could spice up things a bit. The Tour had a similar stage finish in 2004 when Lance Armstrong tried to get teammate Floyd Landis to win. Landis didn’t manage to get away on the descent and in the end Armstrong outsprinted Andreas Klöden to take the stage win.

The final 70 km of Stage 19 - Click for larger view.

The Favorites

As hoped for in my Preview for stage 18, Saxo-Tinkoff tried to make a masterpiece. They failed however and now they have to focus on keeping their podium spot instead of trying to win the Tour. It’s not like Alberto Contador not to aim for the overall win and even though he may not care if he ends 2^nd or 10^th, I bet his team does. I personally doubt Saxo-Tinkoff will try to open up the race from afar on this stage but with Contador you never know.

I didn’t mention Purito among my favorites for Alpe d’Huez since I was waiting to play him as my favorite for this stage. Purito had two big goals for this first part of the season; Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour de France. He managed to time his condition perfectly for LBL but in a sprint against Dan Martin he couldn’t do better than second place. Ever since April all focus has been on the Tour and trying to peak in the third week. So far, everything has gone according to the plan and Purito is now just 26 seconds from the podium. In his preparation for the Tour, Purito has been training on this stage and tomorrow’s stage and he knows exactly what to expect. He best chance of making podium is to drop Contador and Kreuziger - I doubt he can handle Quintana - and to do that he needs to put in a couple of strong attacks on Col de la Croix Fry. 

Teammate Dani Moreno is also peaking right now and I expect a big show from Katusha in the last days in the Alps. Purito’s biggest rival for the stage win is Alejandro Valverde but according to Valverde, Movistar are now all-in for Nairo Quintana and his podium place. In case Alberto Contador has another bad day, I think it will only be Purito, Froome and Quintana in front (among the favorites) over the top of Col de la Croix Fry and if they can make it to the finishing line, Purito should be able to outsprint Quintana. Froome will happy just to keep the yellow jersey.

The Jokers

I mentioned in the beginning that this is an important stage for the riders still hoping to win the KOM Jersey. Mikel Nieve is fourth in that competition right now, 41 points behind Chris Froome, but if Nieve is first man over the two first climbs, he will take the jersey - for now. The strong Basque climber is 15^th overall, 24:13 minutes down, and he’s not a threat for the Top10 riders should he get into the morning breakaway. Euskaltel are in desperate need of a new sponsor and it would help quite a lot if Mikel Nieve could win the Polka Dot Jersey.

Europcar tried to attack on stage 18 with Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland but it all came too late as the breakaway already had a big gap. I think both Voeckler and Rolland will be eager to get into the morning breakaway and with a downhill finish, the stage looks very good for especially Voeckler.

My last joker is Alessandro De Marchi. His teammate Moreno Moser came close on Alpe d’Huez and his third place must have boosted the moral for the coming days. De Marchi himself has tried hard the last couple of days in the mountains and he did very well on stage 18 despite not getting into the morning breakaway. He finished 19^th on Alpe d’Huez and he showed in Dauphiné that he has what it takes to go all the way. Two years ago, the Italian’s former team boss, Gianni Savio, told me that De Marchi is strong but “not a winner”. Things have changed since then and should Alessandro De Marchi manage get into the morning breakaway, I think he will be very difficult to beat - should they make it to the line.

Favorite: Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez

Jokers: Thomas Voeckler & Alessandro De Marchi

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 19: