Amstel Gold Race: Preview & Favorites

The cobblestone Classics are now history and it’s time to focus on the Ardennes. I have named Peter Sagan as my favorite for both Milano - San Remo and Ronde van Vlaanderen and both times he has ended in second place. Still, it’s very difficult not pick Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Amstel Gold Race.

The race organizers have changed the course for this year’s edition, so instead of finishing on the top of Cauberg, the finish line is now more or less the same as for the World Champions last year. That means we now have a 1,7 km flat part after Cauberg and that really is in Peter Sagan’s favor. Explosive riders like Phillipe Gilbert and Purito Rodriguez might have been able to drop Sagan on Cauberg on a good day, but with nearly two kilometers flat before the line, Sagan has a good chance to come back and win in a sprint. That being said, don’t be surprised if Sagan attacks on Cauberg and soloes away for the win.

Another important route chance this year is the extra lap after the third time over Cauberg with 20 km to go. This opens up the race for attacks before the final and even though I doubt a break will make, the chances are now better than before. The extra lap also makes the race a lot harder, which means we should see a smaller group than usually reaching Cauberg for the last time.

The way I see it, there are two main contenders to Peter Sagan this Sunday. Phillipe Gilbert and Simon Gerrans. Gilbert has been getting better and better all year and he showed in Brabantse Pijl that he is ready for the Ardennes Classics. He won the World Champions on this course last year and a podium without Gilbert will be a surprise, the way I see it. Simon Gerrans has been targeting this week all season. He raced in Catalunya and Pais Vasco in order to fine-tune his shape for the Ardennes, and he won a stage in both races. Gerrans is not only strong on the hills, he is also very fast on the line, probably faster than he has ever been. He has a super strong team to support him and Gerrans is my personal favorite to win Amstel Gold Race, should Sagan miss out.

Other strong candidates for a podium spot are Alejandro Valverde and Damiano Cunego. Valverde had to skip Amorebieta last Saturday because of a cold, but he is still confident about his chances this Sunday. I picked Valverde to win the Rainbow jersey last year on this course and even though he only took 3^rd place, he did show that he is capable of doing great on this finish. Valverde has been very strong this year and if he is ready again after his cold, he should be among the riders fighting for the win. The same goes for Damiano Cunego. He was in a perfect position last year, but crashed in the final on Cauberg just as he was launching his attack. Cunego is now eager to get revenge and even though he wasn’t great in Pais Vasco, only a puncture on the final time trial kept him out of Top10 overal. The Ardennes Classics are a big goal for Cunego this year and I think he will be up there in the final.

Last year’s winner, Enrico Gasparotto, is naturally keen on repeating his win but unfortunately, he crashed into a truck while training on Thursday. Also, the new finish isn’t great for Gasparotto, so I highly doubt that he will be able to win again this year.

Team Blanco have two very good cards to play in Bauke Mollema and Tom-Jelte Slagter, but they haven’t had the best lead-up either. Mollema had to skip Pais Vasco and stay in bed sick and even though he is better now, I still think he will be targeting Liege-Bastogne-Liege instead of Amstel. That would mean Tom-Jelte Slagter now has a chance of showing his great potential, in a race that is almost tailor-made for him, but like Gasparotto, Slagter too crashed while training. Hopefully, Slagter will be ready to fight Sunday, but if he’s not 100%, it won’t be easy to compete against Sagan, Gilbert, Gerrans etc.

Like always, I have a joker too; Angel Vicioso. Katusha have an extremely strong team for the Ardennes Classics with Purito, Dani Moreno, Kolobnev, Spilak & Caruso, but I have a feeling Vicioso will end up being the best-placed rider for the Russian team. Despite the controversy from Operación Puerto, Vicioso now says he is back at his old level and I know he has big plans for the Ardennes. He took 3^rd place of the first two stages in Pais Vasco and worked hard for Spilak and Caruso in the rest of the race before abandoning in order to get ready for this week. Vicioso probably doesn’t have the kick to stay with the best up Cauberg, but if it comes back together on the last two kilometers, he is fast enough to take a podium spot on a good day.

Other interesting names are Marco Marcato and Gianni Meersman. Marcato was out for almost a month because of a knee injury, but he has shown good signs the latest races. In Brabantse Pijl he put in some strong attacks on the hills and with his fast finish, he’s one to keep an eye on for a breakaway in the final. Meersman was great in Catalunya with two stage wins but he had to skip Pais Vasco due to stomach problems. Now he’s feeling better though and after training in the sun in Calpe for the last weeks, Meersman is now ready for Sunday.

Quickstep haven’t been lucky in the Classics so far, but maybe their luck will chance this Sunday on the course they won the World Champion Team Time Trial. If not Meersman, they also have a strong outsider in Peter Velits, who too is very fast on the line and good on the hills. Velits took third place on a Tour de France stage with a similar finish last year and he showed to be in good shape in Pais Vasco. Look out for him!

Winner pick: Peter Sagan

Podium picks: Phillipe Gilbert & Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Angel Vicioso, Gianni Meersman & Peter Velits

For live race coverage check out steephill.tv

Another joker today: In great shape, good uphill, semi-fast on the line, team leader and yet no one talks about him...Roman Kreuziger! #AGR
— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Look out for the guy with the cap on the left side. Great shape and good candidate for an attack in the final. twitter.com/TeamSaxoTinkof… #AGR

— Mikkel Condé v2.0 (@mrconde) April 14, 2013

Liege-Bastogne-Liege Favorites

It’s time for the last Spring Classic of the season and just like last year, there is one guy everybody talks about; Philippe Gilbert.

In 2011 it was because of his outstanding shape and three wins in a row, while it this time is because he now finally seems to be back among the favorites again.

Last year he won Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone before he took his career’s first Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory. This year Gilbert ended 12th in Brabantse Pijl, 6th in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in Fleche Wallone. As Gilbert points out you can’t really divide 3 with 2 in the same way as mentioned above -that would be a 1,5 place. Not the win, but very close. Actually a pretty solid guess for how Liege-Bastogne-Liege will be for Gilbert tomorrow.

I have no doubts that he will be among the best riders, but does he and the BMC team really have what it takes to control the race, follow the attacks and then beat everyone in the final? Gilbert is the favorite, yes – but I think a certain Italian rider could end up surprising quite a few.

Vincenzo Nibali
I have picked out Nibali as favorite a couple of times already this season (Tour of Oman, Milano-San Remo and Tirreno-Adriatico) and every time he has ended in the top3 (2nd in Oman, 3rd in MSR and 1st in Tirreno), so don’t be surprised if it continues in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Nibali attacking.

Last winter Vincenzo Nibai said he wanted to focus more on the Ardennes Classics again and after a pretty anonymous Amstel Gold Race (104th) he showed good legs in Fleche Wallone last Wednesday (8th). I’m sure Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the one of the three Ardennes races most suitable for Nibali and “The Shark” himself also sounds very optimistic about his chances.

A few days ago the Liquigas riders were out training on the course and on Cote de Saint-Nicolas, a great tactical place to attack in the final, Vincenzo Nibali opened up for all engines and rode full speed to test the legs. I won’t be surprised if he does that again tomorrow when it really counts. It would also make sense to try an attack on the descent of La Roche-aux-Faucons. Leaving the rest of the favorites looking at each other. Nibali shouldn’t have any problems staying with the favorites and if he gets away in the final he will be very difficult to catch again!

Favorites for Amstel Gold Race

Purito's stage win in Vuelta Pais Vasco
on a steep final like Cauberg with 15%.

Every single one of you reading this site should know who my favorite is for Amstel Gold Race this Sunday. A lot of things can happen but I think it will end up with a reduced group fighting for the win on Cauberg and that means a certain Spanish rider must be the mega favorite.

Joaquim “Purito” Rodriguez
Give this guy a steep part over 15% and he gets wings. Purito has been an expect of these “rampas” his whole career and the last couple of years he has had few if any real equals at all. Last year Purito had some injury problems leading up to the Ardennes Classics but he still managed to rip the front group apart on the steep part of Cauberg with only Gilbert able to follow him. Given state of shape Gilbert was in last year, of course he won the race against Purito who still wasn’t 100%. This year Gilbert doesn’t seem to be near the same condition and while Purito recently showed off his excellent shape in Vuelta Pais Vasco I can’t see anyone beating the little Spaniard if it’s all together when they start on Cauberg.

Samu winning in Arrate
for the 3rd time in a row.

Samuel Sanchez
Yet another Spanish rider. If Purito showed he was ready in Vuelta Pais Vasco, Samuel Sanchez showed he was super ready. Euskaltel Euskadi finally got their win on home territory and if Samu can manage to refocus on the Ardennes after that performance he should have very good chances of a podium spot.

I doubt he will try to attack before the final and since I can’t see him follow Purito, I don’t think he will win, but he is definitely a strong contender for the podium. Team mate Mikel Landa recently said that Samuel Sanchez had one of the three Ardennes Classics red-circled and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the one.

Cunego winning Amstel
on Cauberg back in 2008.

Damiano Cunego
First one of my favorites who has actually won the race earlier. Damiano Cunego won on Cauberg back in 2008 when he outsprinted Fränk Schleck and Alejandro Valverde. Ever since Cunego has been among the best riders in the race taking 5th in 2009, 6th in 2010 and 15th last year. This year Cunego has ambitions on the World Champion course in Limburg and since that one is very similar to the Amstel Gold Race course, Cunego wants to show he should be the Italian captain in September. In Vuelta Pais Vasco he ended off very strong with an impressive 5th place on the final time trial and without Michele Scarponi to share the leader role with, I think Damiano Cunego has good chances of taking yet another top spot on Cauberg. 

Jokers
No favorites without any jokers. Even though Katusha and other teams should be strong enough to keep it together for a final show down on Cauberg, the chance of a successful attack is always there. One of the riders who has the strength to do it is Vincenzo Nibali. His showed in Tirreno-Adriatico and Milano-San Remo that his tactical sense is improving and if he can keep his head cool this time he should be able to put in a strong attack in the final.

Nordhaug wins Trofeo Deia
after going solo in the final.

Another rider who has shown to be very strong these days is Lars-Petter Nordhaug from Team Sky. Nordhaug ended 4th overall in Criterium International and 6th in the GC in Vuelta Pais Vasco and according to the Norwegian he was even holding back to be ready for the Ardennes Classics. Team Sky also have Sergio Luis Henao on the team and since the Columbian is more explosive in the final I think Lars-Petter Nordhaug will have to attack from a far if he wants a chance to surprise the favorites.

Among other riders for the expected “sprint” on Cauberg it would be foolish not to mention Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans but to be honest I have more faith in the three pointed out above. For break aways look out for Giovanni Visconti and home favorite Robert Gesink.