Vuelta a España: Stage 5 Preview & Favorites

On stage 2, Dani Moreno waited too long when Nicolas Roche attacked. That mistake cost him the stage win. Tuesday afternoon, Moreno took no chances when he attacked from afar and managed to keep Fabian Cancellara and the rest of the peloton behind him. Cancellara’s strong effort probably made the gap among the favorites, which made Chris Horner lose the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali. However, the American doesn’t seem too upset over losing the jersey. “It’s ok for now. I will use my good legs to get it back”, he says.

Astana shouldn’t have problems keeping the jersey on Stage 5 even though it won’t be an easy day in the saddle. There are only two categorized climb on profile but the 174.3 km from Sober to Lago de Sanabria include numerous hills. Officially, the first climb Alto do Covelo doesn’t start until after 68.6 km. However, at this point the road has already been going uphill for the past 11 km.

With 42.3 km to go, the final categorized climb of the day begins. Alto de Padornelo is 11 km long but with an average of just 2.6 % it won’t make for a huge selection in peloton. It gets steeper towards the top but strong sprinters like Gianni Meersman, Michael Matthews and Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t have problems staying in front.

Coming down from Alto de Padornelo the final 20 km may look flat but don’t be fooled. We are in Spain and that means you shouldn’t trust the road book when it comes to “flat” parts. The last 10 km are constantly up and down and there is a part of 1.5 km with an average gradient of 4.3 % as the peloton enters Cubelo with 6 km to go. A tailwind will help the riders keep a high pace the final 5 km and without any sharp corners; it will be a fast finish. However, this is the Vuelta and it can’t surprise anybody that the race organizers have put in a 90° corner with just 600 meters to go. This will stretch out the peloton significantly and it’s important to be near the front at this point. Preferably with two teammates in front of you.

Dani Moreno took the peloton by surprise on stage 4 but with a flat finish, guys like Meersman, Matthews and Boasson Hagen should be able to fight for the win. It’s a tough day and I’m not quite sure the pure sprinters will manage to stay in the peloton. The joker picks for a sprint are the same as those for stage 4. Meaning riders like Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, Grega Bole and Anthony Roux.

There is a good chance of this stage finishing in a bunch sprint but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a breakaway making it all the way. It could be the morning breakaway and it could be a late breakaway on Alto de Padornelo. Vincenzo Nibali is not interested in losing the Red Jersey again so we have to look to riders already out of the GC for possible breakaway candidates.

Amets Txurruka is 4:33 min behind in the overall classification and the Basque rider is a true breakaway specialist. Txurruka is in great shape right now and has already tried to breakaway twice within the last couple of days. Another strong rider down the GC who is in good shape is Juan Antonio Flecha. He has attacked on the last kilometers the last two days in a row but without success. Flecha is obviously going strong right now but maybe he’ll have more luck with an attack from afar.

The TV-viewers have been spoiled with images of the beautiful scenery in Galicia and with the finish line next to Lago de Sanabria, this will be another spectacular stage to watch. 

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 5, Laura thinks a breakaway will make it and picks Thomas de Gendt to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish…Sagan!

It can be a long day in front of the tv - or alongside the road - tomorrow, so to spare you a lot of time, here is how the World Champions 2011 is going down…

Starting out with a classic ‘few men breakaway’, peloton chasing quietly with the help of a some small nation riders who need a new contract. Around half way through the race the big nations send out a 3rd and 4th card player to test the bunch, nothing serious, you all know how it is. Within the last 4-5 laps the real guns start blazing. Spain sends out Lastras or Barredo, Italy tries with Visconti, while Gerrans represents Australia. Belgium misses the move and chase hard with UK and Germany. On the last lap Gilbert gives a go on the small hill with 10 km to go but never gets off and decides to stop and go back to prepare the sprint...

In the last corner UK has the front. Wiggins, who has been leading the peloton for a couple of kilometers putting everybody on their limit, leaves the front to Gerraint Thomas with Cavendish on his wheel. Thomas does this thing with 50+ km/h while everybody fighting to be on Cavendish’ wheel. On the final 350 meters Greipel tries to get a jump on Cavendish who reacts quickly and get back and pass the German. Cavendish seems to take the win but on the last 50-100 meters Peter Sagan shows up. The Slovakian has been hiding all day long but now he is there, right where he needs to be. He passes Cavendish and win with a couple of meters while Italian joker Viviani takes the bronze medal thanks to a powerful finish.

That leaves us with a top10 looking a little bit like this:
1. Peter Sagan
2. Mark Cavendish
3. Elia Viviani
4. Andre Greipel
5. Oscar Freire
6. Roman Feillu
7. Philippe Gilbert
8. Heinrich Haussler
9. Tyler Farrar
10. Grega Bole

I know there are a million of different scenarios, but to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if it all turned out something like the above.

What do you all think? Who is your favorite?

And hey, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates, comments and pictures!

Enjoy the race!

Another Aussie attack?

Australia showed off big time in the first two days of the World Champions with four medals in the time trials. Especially in the Men’s U23 when Luke Durbridge won in front of (Danish) Rasmus Quaade and fellow-countryman Michael Hepburn, who despite a crash managed to take the bronze.

Afterwards Hepburn told me that had only been focusing 50% on the time trial in order to be ready for the road race as well and like he said; “It’s always been more about the road race. I think the chances of a medal is good as long as it doesn’t come down to a bunch sprint since we really don’t have a pure sprinter on the team. Still we have one of the strongest teams and I will of course be extra motivated now after my crash here”.

So there it is folks…I know many of you probably will pick Arnaud Demare as the big favorite for today, but I go with Michael Hepburn! As jokers for the race look out for Spanish Jordi Simon and Italian Filippo Fortin. Should it end in bunch sprint Fortin is a very good card together with Dutch Jetse Bol and some of the fast Germans. Anyway I feel safe enough picking out Michael Hepburn to take another medal at these World Champions.

Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates and pictures during the race!

Beautiful national colors in France this summer!

The world’s biggest sports event this year will be attended by the world’s best riders – in their home colors! That’s the result after the weekend’s national championships where riders like Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara, Fränk Schleck & Philippe Gilbert ended on top of the podiums.

A quick look at the results gives us the following national road champions ready for the Tour de France starting this Saturday.

British champ: Bradley Wiggins
Luxembourg champ: Fränk Schleck
Spanish champ: José Joaquin Rojas
Belgian champ: Philippe Gilbert
Danish champ: Nicki Sørensen
French champ: Sylvain Chavanel
Suisse champ: Fabian Cancellara
Slovenian champ: Grega Bole
Russian champ: Pavel Brutt


While most of these riders were pre-selected by their teams for the Tour already, Pavel Brutt really did shoot the parrot. His Russian Katusha team had earlier announced that only Russian riders would be selected for the Tour this time and with 7 riders pre-selected, Pavel Brutt was just one  outof six riders fighting for the last two spots. A spot I feel pretty sure he will get now after taking the jersey. Can’t really see a Russian government supported team with 100 % Russian riders not picking their new national champion, you?

Only question now is for long we will actually see Philippe Gilbert’s Belgian jersey in the Tour-peloton. I have a feeling that it will be rather yellow the first week…