Giro d'Italia: Stage 21 Preview & Favorites

It’s time for the last stage of this year’s Giro d’Italia and everything but another bunch sprint will be a huge surprise. Mark Cavendish lost the Red Jersey to Vincenzo Nibali on Stage 20 and that means he needs a top performance if he wants to take it back on the last day. Cavendish has been levels above his rivals so far and it seems that only bad luck can take this stage win away from him.

Still, the final laps of 4.2 km in Brescia are very tricky with a lot of sharp corners and with everybody wanting to win on the final day; it could easily end up with another big crash. Naturally it’s up to Quickstep to keep it together but don’t forget Cavendish is without leadout man Gert Steegmans, so he probably have to rely on youngster Matteo Trentin or get on the wheel of another train.

Nobody can match Cavendish’ kick in the final but if someone tries to open the sprint early, Cavendish might be in trouble without a leadout train. I personally think Mark Cavendish will win this one but with a tricky finish and no leadout, it won’t be as easy as earlier.

The final laps in Brescia. Click for larger view.

Cannondale are one of the few teams with all nine riders still in the race and they will be extra motivated for this stage. The team is based nearby and after being close a couple of times already, Elia Viviani now hopes to finally take a stage win in this year’s Giro d’Italia. I expect Cannondale to take the front on the final kilometers and I think Viviani will be very close again.

I have already said many times that it’s hard to pick a joker in this sprint field but since we haven’t seen much of him so far, I’ll pick Manuel Belletti. The Italian sprinter went down in the big crash on Stage 1 but he’s been near the top the last couple of sprints. Belletti has been good at getting on Cavendish’ wheel this season but for some reason he hasn’t been able to turn into a result. I’ve seen Belletti getting better and better in this Giro and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make Top3 in Brescia.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 Pick: Elia Viviani

Joker: Manuel Belletti

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 21:

For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d'Italia: Stage 12 Preview & Favorites

There aren’t many chances for the pure sprinters in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this is surely one they can’t afford to miss out on. The stage is only 134 km and despite a couple of small steep hills, this will most likely end up in a mass sprint. There are only 40 km to the finish line from the top of the last climb, Santa Maria della Vittoria but even though it has parts of 14%, the sprinters should be able to make it back to the peloton.

John Degenkolb is already out of the race and that mean Argos-Shimano probably won’t line up their leadout train as they have done in the previous sprint stages. This gives more room for GreenEdge and Cannondale to take the front but the many sharp turns in the last 10 km will make it difficult to control the sprint. The final kilometer is straight out and if Quickstep manage to hit the front with Trentin and Steegmans here, no one will pass Mark Cavendish before the line.

Elia Viviani seems to be targeting the Red Jersey - hence his attack on the mountain stage the other day - and he’s been very consistent in the sprints so far. The bendy run-in isn’t exactly in his favor but if he can keep the wheel of Cavendish, I think he will make Top3 again and pass Cadel Evans. Still, if Mark Cavendish ends in front of Viviani - in Top3 - he will take the Red Jersey from Evans.

If anyone is to beat Mark Cavendish I think it will be Nacer Bouhanni. The French Champion seems to be back in shape again and he finished very fast on Stage 6. FDJ messed up their leadout on this stage and that cost Bouhanni at least a podium spot. I’m sure Bouhanni and the team are very eager to make up for that, and if Bouhanni manages to get on Cavendish’s wheel - or whoever ends up having the final lead out - he will be very difficult to keep behind.

As I said the last time we had a mass sprint, it’s very difficult to pick a joker since all the sprinters have a solid chance of Top3. I picked the yYoung Colombian Edwin Avila and he delivered as expected. I think Avila will make Top10 this time but to picker another joker, I’ll say Robert Hunter. Despite Hesjedal’s downfall, the moral must be good at Garmin after Navardauskas’ impressive stage win and with a little bit of luck, Hunter might even make podium Stage 12. He hasn’t been lucky so far and he’s been making mistakes of leaving too much room in front of him in the sprints. Guys like Ferrari and Gavazzi will always try to exploit these rooms but if Hunter manages to stay close to the right wheel, he should have a chance of making a good result.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 Pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Joker: Robert Hunter

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews this year and here it is. In collaboration with GCN, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 12:



For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Giro d’Italia: Stage 1 Preview

For the first time in 10 years, the Giro starts with a regular stage. Last time that happened Alessandro Petacchi won and took the first Maglia Rosa and everything but another bunch sprint will be a big surprise.

The sprinters won’t have many chances in this year’s Giro d’Italia and this one is certainly one they don’t want to miss out on.

The stage is only 130 km long and it’s split up into two difference loops. The first one includes the category 4 climb Posillipo on Via Francesco Petrarca and is covered four times within the first 55 km. There is a KOM sprint placed on the top of Possillipo the 2^nd and 3^rd time the riders cross the top so expect fireworks right from the beginning of the stage. The smaller teams and those without GC riders or sprinters will be eager get in the break and take the KOM jersey on the first day of the Giro.

After looping on the Posillipo Hill four times the riders head back to Napoli and start on eight laps in the city. The last 6 km are tricky with many bends and corners but the last 2 km seem pretty straight forward. Argos-Shimano, GreenEdge, Cannondale and Quickstep will all try to hit the front the last few kilometers and with everybody having fresh legs - and thinking of Maglia Rosa - it sure will be hectic.

Usually Mark Cavendish doesn’t win on the first day of a stage race, but being Cavendish he still is the big favorite. He didn’t get Alessandro Petacchi as leadout for the Giro and that means it’s up to Trentin and Steegsmans to deliver Cavendish on the right wheel - not leading him out, delivering him. Note the difference! Cavendish decided to go to Tour de Romandie, a stage race without any mass sprint finishes, in order to get ready for the Giro and I wouldn’t be surprised if he needs a stage to get 100%. That being said, I wouldn’t bet against him either.

The way I see it, there are three sprinters on the same level just behind Cavendish. Matt Goss, John Degenkolb og Nacer Bouhanni. Goss and Degenkolb probably have the two strongest leadout teams in the race since and I think it will be a fight between GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano to take the front on the last kilometer. Seeded in the third group on my paper we’ll find Roberto Ferrari, Elia Viviani, Sacha Modolo and Giacomo Nizzolo. My personal favorite in this group is Nizzolo. He’s getting better and better every year and it won’t be long before he’s beating the big favorites in the mass sprints. Nizzolo doesn’t need a leadout train and while everybody is looking at Cavendish, Goss and Degekolb, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nizzolo made top3 in Napoli.

Also, look out for Francesco Chicchi. He didn’t impress much in Tour of Turkey last week but he is an expert in these short criterium stages. You normally never see Chicchi until the final 50 meters, but he has a strong kick and high top speed. If anyone can make an upset and snatch Maglia Rosa from the favorites it’s Chicchi!

Get live race updates and more predictions by following me on Twitter @mrconde.

Favorite: Mark Cavendish

Top3 pick: Giacomo Nizzolo

Joker: Francesco Chicchi

I promised you something extra for the Giro previews and here it is. In collaboration with GNC, you’ll find a short video preview of each stage of the race. Here is Stage 1:



For live coverage of the stage check out steephill.tv

Cavendish, Cavendish, Cavendish…Sagan!

It can be a long day in front of the tv - or alongside the road - tomorrow, so to spare you a lot of time, here is how the World Champions 2011 is going down…

Starting out with a classic ‘few men breakaway’, peloton chasing quietly with the help of a some small nation riders who need a new contract. Around half way through the race the big nations send out a 3rd and 4th card player to test the bunch, nothing serious, you all know how it is. Within the last 4-5 laps the real guns start blazing. Spain sends out Lastras or Barredo, Italy tries with Visconti, while Gerrans represents Australia. Belgium misses the move and chase hard with UK and Germany. On the last lap Gilbert gives a go on the small hill with 10 km to go but never gets off and decides to stop and go back to prepare the sprint...

In the last corner UK has the front. Wiggins, who has been leading the peloton for a couple of kilometers putting everybody on their limit, leaves the front to Gerraint Thomas with Cavendish on his wheel. Thomas does this thing with 50+ km/h while everybody fighting to be on Cavendish’ wheel. On the final 350 meters Greipel tries to get a jump on Cavendish who reacts quickly and get back and pass the German. Cavendish seems to take the win but on the last 50-100 meters Peter Sagan shows up. The Slovakian has been hiding all day long but now he is there, right where he needs to be. He passes Cavendish and win with a couple of meters while Italian joker Viviani takes the bronze medal thanks to a powerful finish.

That leaves us with a top10 looking a little bit like this:
1. Peter Sagan
2. Mark Cavendish
3. Elia Viviani
4. Andre Greipel
5. Oscar Freire
6. Roman Feillu
7. Philippe Gilbert
8. Heinrich Haussler
9. Tyler Farrar
10. Grega Bole

I know there are a million of different scenarios, but to be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if it all turned out something like the above.

What do you all think? Who is your favorite?

And hey, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates, comments and pictures!

Enjoy the race!