TDU Preview - Stage 3

I always look forward to this stage. In the past it was the only one not suited for all the sprinters and now it’s an important stage for the overall classification due to the bonus seconds on the line.

Yesterday my favorite Phillipe Gilbert attacked early but crashed on the descent - probably without a chance of winning the stage anyway at that point - but at least my three mentioned jokers; Javier Moreno, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Tim Wellens all did well, as expected. Geraint Thomas surprised me a little by getting away that “easily” on the steep part and to be honest, it will be very difficult to rip the leading jersey of his shoulders now. I can’t imagine it being done in Stirling, that’s for sure.

Team Sky have a very strong team in Tour Down Under and if Thomas is able to break away from the rest on 15% and still have enough energy to smash it in the sprint, how are they going to drop him in Stirling? A lot of riders hit the deck yesterday and I would expect many of these - out of the GC already - to try to get in the morning break. Last year the early break made it all way to the line and seeing how the race organizers have added two more laps, it will be a very tough stage to control.

I think Team Sky would be happy to let riders out of the GC get up the road early and for their sake battle out the stage win between them. The problem for Team Sky is that so many other teams still want to keep it together. BMC will be eager to set Phillipe Gilbert up for a win on a finish that suits him perfectly and the same goes for GreenEdge with Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke and Matthew Goss. Lampre have in-form Daniele Pietropolli to count on should it come down to a sprint while Movistar have José Joaquin Rojas to play.

And don’t forget about Andre Greipel. Many would probably say this stage is too hard for fast German, but in the past Greipel have shown he can stay up front in Stirling when he’s on top of his game. In 2011 Greipel took second after Michael Matthews thanks to a powerful finish and with the shape he’s been showing lately, it would be a mistake to count him out already.

Edvald Boasson Hagen could be an obvious candidate to the win, but if Team Sky manage to keep it together for a sprint, I think it would be foolish not to give Thomas a chance to gain few extra bonus seconds. Having EBH leading him out, Thomas would be in an excellent position to increase his lead before the decisive stage on Willunga Hill.

Anyway. To sum it all up. A break will have good chances since it will be difficult to control it on this undulating route, but if the peloton starts working together it should come down to a sprint in a reduced group. My favorite, as said in my first preview, is Phillipe Gilbert. It’s difficult to say how much of an impact the crash will have on him, but if he’s in the front, he will be very difficult to beat. One of the few who could do it is Andre Greipel, but again it won’t be easy for the German Gorilla to stay up front.

For the jokers I would like to point out Luke Durbridge. GreenEdge is out of the GC now and that means Luke Durbridge will have green light to seek an early break. Just like he did in the national championships when he won the road race (after already having won the time trial). The Australian wonderkid seems to be in the shape of his life already and he knows how to suffer on the hills as well. Another guy who knows how to win from a break is Thomas De Gendt. The Vacansoleil captain came to Australia with GC ambitions, but was among those who crashed yesterday. He’s 2:44 min after Geraint Thomas in the classification and even though that’s not a lot, De Gendt may not be the first rider the peloton will start chasing down.

Winnerpicks: Phillipe Gilbert / Andre Greipel
Jokers: Luke Durbridge / Thomas De Gendt

Another Aussie attack?

Australia showed off big time in the first two days of the World Champions with four medals in the time trials. Especially in the Men’s U23 when Luke Durbridge won in front of (Danish) Rasmus Quaade and fellow-countryman Michael Hepburn, who despite a crash managed to take the bronze.

Afterwards Hepburn told me that had only been focusing 50% on the time trial in order to be ready for the road race as well and like he said; “It’s always been more about the road race. I think the chances of a medal is good as long as it doesn’t come down to a bunch sprint since we really don’t have a pure sprinter on the team. Still we have one of the strongest teams and I will of course be extra motivated now after my crash here”.

So there it is folks…I know many of you probably will pick Arnaud Demare as the big favorite for today, but I go with Michael Hepburn! As jokers for the race look out for Spanish Jordi Simon and Italian Filippo Fortin. Should it end in bunch sprint Fortin is a very good card together with Dutch Jetse Bol and some of the fast Germans. Anyway I feel safe enough picking out Michael Hepburn to take another medal at these World Champions.

Follow me on Twitter (www.twitter.com/mrconde) for live updates and pictures during the race!

"3rd place is also nice"

Remember what I said about Luke Durbridge earlier this week? About that look he had in his eyes on his way to the start. Well, Tony Martin had that exact look as well today. From the very point he stepped out of the car a couple of hours before he should start all the way to the countdown session on the ramp.

He absolutely killed it from the first split time to aprox. 3-4 km from the finish when the German “now was sure that I would become World Champion”, as he stated on the press conference afterwards before adding, while looking at Fabian Cancellara, “but 3rd place is also nice”. One moment of silence occurred and then the whole room cracked up laughing, including Cancellara, while Tony Martin desperately tried to explain his way out of that comment.

Fabian Cancellara was obviously very disappointed and said that even though he was feeling good in the beginning of the course, he never managed to find his rhythm and therefore lost some mental points which caused he couldn’t give what was needed to take fifth gold medal.

For more comments and pictures of the Elite Men Time Trial please check my Twitter account at www.twitter.com/mrconde- thanks.

More updates later, stay tuned!

Ciao.

Kangaroo attack!

While everybody was fearing - and expecting - it to be a rainy first day of the World Champions in Copenhagen it turned out to be surprisingly sunny and we even got a Danish silver medal in the Men U-23 time trial with Rasmus Quaade! Awesome!

Still I’m sure that the Australian team is celebrating even more than us Danes tonight. Three medals in two disciplines! Jessica Allen started out taking the gold in the Women Junior time trial and after that Luke Durbridge and Michael Hepburn sandwiched up Rasmus Quaade by taking 1st and 3rd.

I’ve have all day long – especially on Twitter – pointed out that I saw Luke Durbridge as the favorite for today and on his way to the start I got it confirmed. Durbridge almost crashed into me and it was easy to see that he hadn’t eye for anything else than that gold medal. I won’t forget that look in his eye anytime soon. So focused and so motivated!

Rasmus Quaade said, on the press conference after the race, that he didn’t ‘lose the rainbow jersey’, but instead ‘won a silver medal’ and that seems like a fair assumption. Nobody stood a chance against Luke Durbridge today. In fact it seems like the only one who wasn’t sure of him winning the gold medal was Durbridge’s girlfriend, waiting with the Australian team near the finishing line. First when Durbridge crossed the line she started to jump and shout and ran to congratulate her boyfriend in a tornado of cameras. I’m sure you all saw the pictures…

So that’s it for today folks. It’s been a great first day of the World Champions and I just hope and pray that the weather will stay the same all week.

Don’t forget to check my Twitter account for photos and live updates every day during this week! Find it at http://www.twitter.com/mrconde

Pancake atmosphere

The UCI World Champions in Copenhagen has finally started. Weather forecast threatened with rainy days, but this Monday has been all sunshine so far. Perfect!

First gold medal of the day went to young Australian Jessica Allen in the Women Junior time trial and as I have been saying a couple of times already today I am pretty sure the Kangaroo country will take another gold medal later today. First of all because Australia probably have THE biggest favorite in Luke Durbridge and second because they even have the second or third favorite as well in Michael Hepburn. Being Danish and everything of course I hope our own podium favorite Rasmus Quaade can do well, but against Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Yoann Paillot, Matteo Mammini and Anton Vorobyev I think he should be happy if he makes the podium!

The press center for the time trial is hosted in the Town Hall of Copenhagen on the second floor in the ballroom where the Mayor is known for serving pancakes to his visitors. Impressive surroundings that I fear the sports hall near the road race will have big problems matching in the weekend…

Anyway the the World Champions is now in-play and I will report back later. Stay tuned!