Strade Bianche: Favorites & Jokers

This may be the strongest field for Strade Bianche so far and therefore very hard to predict a winner. Fabian Cancellara won last year after an amazing solo effort the last 12 km and together with wonder boy Peter Sagan, he is the big favorite. The way I see it there are two likely scenarios.

Scenario 1:

Peter Sagan has one his great days and keeps staying in front when it matters. Sagan is an equilibrist on a bicycle and the white gravel roads should not give him any problems. He is among the best riders on the small steep hills and most likely the fastest rider in the race as well. He won two stages in Tour of Oman before having to withdraw with a sore throat and Thursday he showed to be back as he won GP Camaiore. Knowing how strong he is, you simply cannot rule out Peter Sagan as the big favorite for Strade Bianche. His aim is to win Milano - San Remo and/or Ronde van Vlaanderen this year and taking a win Saturday afternoon will definitely boost his morale. Sagan has Moreno Moser to help him in the finale and Moser showed last year that he can do whatever it takes to bring Sagan to victory. He showed that again in GP Camaiore when he kept the speed up in the break for last three kilometers before Sagan took over in the sprint.

In this first scenario, Peter Sagan wins Strade Bianche thanks to his technical skills and fast sprint on last few hundred meters. Probably in front of Cadel Evans and Oscar Gatto.

Scenario 2:

Fabian Cancellara shows same strength as last year and manages to get away solo. If Peter Sagan does not have any teammates in the final, is caught by bad luck or simply does not have a good day, I doubt any will be able to follow Cancellara. I think BMC will be the only team with more than one rider in the final group - both Greg van Avermaet and Cadel Evans should be there - but I doubt any of them will have what it takes to catch Cancellara. Evans will probably try to dig deep before having a go in Tirreno-Adriatico, but it might very well only be for second place no matter what.

In this second scenario, Fabian Cancellara wins Strade Bianche after a solo attack like last year. Cancellara is very strong right now and remember that a third win of the race will give him a white gravel road named after him. A win here will boost his morale for the upcoming classics and knowing the roads and how to attack them, Cancellara will be very difficult to keep down this Saturday. Like in the first scenario, Cadel Evans takes second place here, probably with Marco Marcato or Giovanni Visconti as the last rider on the podium.

As you can see Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara are the two big favorites but if any of these two should strike out, I think Cadel Evans will be ready to take his chance. Evans was outstanding on the epic white gravel stage in the Giro back in 2010 and together with in-form Greg van Avermaet he should be able to do some damage.

Last year I picked Oscar Gatto as my winner pick and he turned out to be one of the strongest rider in the race taking third place after having to get back from a couple of punctures in the final. Last week I said I think Gatto will have a great spring season and this is without a doubt one of the best races for him. Gatto is great on the small hills - don’t forget how he distanced Contador and the rest of the Giro field on a steep finish two years ago - and very fast on the line too. Last year only an outstanding Fabian Cancellara was able to distance Oscar Gatto and even though it’s a stronger field this year, I think Gatto will be there in the final once again.

As always, I would like to mention a few more jokers. Riders like Francesco Reda and Marco Marcato are very strong right now and both seems to be the designated leaders of their respective teams. Reda ended 6^th last year in Strade Bianche and has been having a great season so far with Gianni Savio’s Androni team. He took 3^rd place overall in Tour Med, finished 2^nd in Trofeo Laigueglia and 7^th in GP Camaiore in the same selective group as winner Peter Sagan. Marcato has big hopes for this spring season and showed in Oman to be in great shape already. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he was the first rider to respond to Sep Vanmarcke’s furious attack on Molenberg and I would expect him to be among the favorites in the final on Saturday. He is good uphill and very fast on the line.

For other candidates look to fast riders who are good on the hills like Giovanni Visconti, Rinaldo Nocentini, Lars Boom and Damiano Cunego.

Not to forget: First man through the last corner wins the race.

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Peter Sagan - Fabian Cancellara

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Cadel Evans - Oscar Gatto - Marco Marcato

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Francesco Reda - Giovanni Visconti - Damiano Cunego

Favorites for Strade Bianche

On Saturday we swap out the cobblestones in Belgium with white gravel roads in Italy. Montepaschi Strade Bianche (former Eroica) is on the menu and I think that we for once will get an Italian winner. Let's take a look at the favorites:

Oscar Gatto

Gatto's stage win in the Giro last year.

This may come as a surprise for many, but in my opinion Oscar Gatto is one of the strongest riders, taking part in the race, right now. Over the years he has been going from being "just a sprinter" to being good on the small hills and also on these gravel roads. He showed that last year in the Giro d'Italia taking 5th place on the stage to Orvieto on gravel roads and winning in Tropea i front of Contador after attacking on the final steep hill. In Strade Bianche last year Gatto tried to attack with Greg Van Avermaet in the final, but got railed back in again. Despite been on the attack he still managed to take 7th after Gilbert. If you look at Oscar Gattos recently results you may not be impressed, but I think it was clear to all who watched Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne last Sunday, that the little Italian is very strong right now. He also showed that in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad being in the group sprinting for 4th place. According to Oscar Gatto himself Strade Bianche is one of his top goals this season and without Gilbert in the same shape as last year, I honestly think Gatto can pull it off!

Alessandro Ballan

Ballan on gravel roads.

I said we would get an Italian winner and that is mainly because I see Alessandro Ballan as the second favorite for the race. Ballan took second place last year after messing up the last corner giving Gilbert a two meters gap. As I said, Gilbert is not as strong this early compared to last year, and therefore I think that Ballan very well could end up being the designated leader at BMC. Ballan started his season already in Tour Down Under and has been steadily improving ever since. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he worked hard in the peloton to catch the break away when team mate Thor Hushovd got dropped and in Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne he was one of most active guys in the big break with Tom Boonen (and Oscar Gatto). Alessandro Ballan has been 2nd in Strade Bianche twice already and I expect him to be on the podium this year as well.

Vincenzo Nibali

Nibali in the rosa working for Basso
on the muddy gravel roads in the Giro.

Another Italian rider? Indeed. Even though Liquigas have Peter Sagan and Daniel Oss on the team as well, I think this race suits Nibali the best. If you remember the epic Giro-stage in 2010 on gravel roads (won by Cadel Evans), Vincenzo Nibali was the one keeping his team leader Ivan Basso in the race, by an outstanding amount of work to minimize the gap to the front group. Nibali was flying that day and last year, on the stage to Orvieto,he took 6th place (right after Gatto). Another important factor not to forget is that Strade Bianche ends with a 300 meters downhill section with a lot of tricky corners (where Ballan lost the race last year) and that is definitely something Vincenzo Nibali masters better than anyone else.

I could actually go on with Italian riders among the candidates to the win. Giovanni Visconti and Simone Ponzi come to mind, like Enrico Gasparotto and young Enrico Battaglin. If I should point out a few foreigners though I think I would go with Ryder Hesjedal who loves this race and the Spanish veteran Patxi Vila who is aiming big at Strade Bianche this season. Talking favorites it may be shameful to not mention Fabian Cancellara, but for Cancellara the goals are coming later in the season. I think Radioshack will try with youngster Tony Gallopin and sprinter Daniele Bennati.