Vuelta a España: Stage 10 Preview & Favorites

Katusha did exactly what we expected on stage 9 and Dani Moreno showed how strong he is right now. Nicolas Roche lost the Red Jersey by one second to Moreno and it will be interesting to see who will lead the race after Monday’s extremely tough day in the mountains.

Stage 10 is the last day to overcome before the first rest day of the race. On paper, this is a good stage for a breakaway to make it but it has to be a break of very strong riders. The first 74 km don’t include any categorized climbs but there are several long hills which will make for a hard start of this stage. Everybody knows the breakaway has a chance today and therefore we can expect a fast start with many attacks.

Alto de Monachil. 8.5 km / 7.7 % avg.

The first part of the stage is tough but it’s nothing compared to the final 36 km. Alto de Monachil starts after 150 km in the saddle. The 8.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.7 % and the first four kilometers are very steep. There are just 27.8 to go from the top of Alto de Monachil and after a descent, which is not easy at all, Alto de Hazallanas starts right away.

The first 5 kilometers have an average gradient of 5 %. The following 3-4 km are more or less flat and after a descent through Güéjar Sierra, the actually climb begins. The final 7 km kick up with 8.5 % and there are numerous parts of over 15 %. With two kilometers to go the gradients almost reach 20 % and this will be a perfect place for the pure climbers to put in a strong attack. The final km is not very steep and the stage actually ends with a little descent towards the line.

So far Dani Moreno has been the strongest rider uphill in the race and it’ difficult to see him losing the Red Jersey. However, the time differences between the first five are still very small. Horner, in fifth place, is only 28 seconds behind Moreno. It’s now up to Katusha to control the race and I’m personally looking forward to see when/if Purito attacks. He doesn’t seem to be on top of his game right now but he needs to take back time on Nibali and the other GC riders. The steep gradients suit Purito perfectly and even if he can’t drop his rivals, he can lead the way for Dani Moreno to attack in the final and extend his lead.

Compared to the steady uphill finish on Saturday, this final climb doesn’t suit Ivan Basso very well. The Cannondale captain is without a doubt in great shape right now but the constant change of rhythm is not good for Basso. That being said, if Basso shows the same strength as the other day, he won’t lose much time to guys like Moreno, Purito and Valverde.

Especially Alejandro Valverde will be interesting to follow on the final climb. I expect Movistar to put a rider in the morning breakaway and by that make Katusha do all the work in the peloton. Valverde hesitated a bit when Dani Moreno attacked on stage 9 but he still showed good legs by taking second place. In the last couple of uphill finishes, Valverde and Purito have waited until the final 500 meters by attacking their rivals. If they attack a bit earlier on Hazallanas, they could really take some time. Also, if the peloton catches the breakaway, it will be difficult to beat Valverde in a finish like this one.

Alto de Hazallanas. 15.8 km / 5 % avg.

Chris Horner had big hopes for Saturday’s uphill finish but after a couple of strong attacks, he couldn’t respond when Roche, Basso and Moreno went away. Horner likes it steep but not on a short distance as in Valdepeñas de Jaén. Alto de Hazallanas is a perfect climb for the American veteran and I’m sure he will try to take back the Red Jersey.

On paper, Astana has one of the strongest teams in this year’s Vuelta. However, Vincenzo Nibali was very isolated the other day. Only Tanel Kangert was with him in the end and right now, it doesn’t seem like Nibali is on the same level as Dani Moreno and Nicolas Roche. It may come later in the race, I’m sure it does, but he still has work to do. His teammate Jakob Fuglsang has deliberately lost one minute after the other in order to drop out of the overall classification. Fuglsang aims at winning a stage after missing out in Dauphiné and in the Tour earlier this year. As pointed out, this is a good day for a breakaway and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jakob Fuglsang in the break. Fuglsang is eager to win and he needs to take advantage of his post-Tour shape before it’s too late. If you’re looking for a joker for the stage win, I’ll suggest the Danish climber.

The final climb is also suiting riders like Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Sergio Henao and Leopold König very well. König has already shown his strength and even though I doubt he wins this stage, he should be able to stay near the favorites. Sergio Henao is 3:28 min after in the overall classification and even though there is still a long way to Madrid, he soon needs to start taking back time. Henao is a great climber and if he has the legs to do it, he should attack early on the final 7 kilometers. Pozzovivo started out this Vuelta aiming for top5 overall but he too has some ground to make up. The pint-sized Italian is not afraid of attacking from a far and this climb is pretty much perfect for him. If the other GC riders start looking at each other, I’m sure Pozzovivo will try to sneak away.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 10, Laura picks Joaquim 'Purito' Rodriguez to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta a España: Stage 8 Preview & Favorites

Another sprint stage turned into a crazy cat and mouse game. Zdenek Stybar showed his class once again when he out-sprinted Philippe Gilbert. The World Champion is therefore still winless in the rainbow jersey.

The sprinters have had their chances the last three days in a row and now it’s time for the GC riders to take charge. Stage 8 is only 166.6 km long and that makes for a fast day under the hot Andalusian sun. The first 125 km of the stage will take place in head- and crosswind. The break has a good chance of making it all the way and we can expect a furious fight to get into that final break.

With about 40 km to go the riders turn left and continue alongside the coast. There is an intermediate sprint in Estepona and four kilometers later, the final climb begins. Peñas Blancas is a category 1 climb and the 14.5 km towards the top have an average gradient of 6.6 %. The first couple of kilometers are very steep with parts over 12 %. The next part is not very steep but it’s constantly up and down and it will be very difficult to keep a steady rhythm. The last 8 km, however, have a steady gradient of 7-8 % and contrary to the beginning of the stage, the riders now have a tailwind all the way to the line. The change of wind favors the opportunistic riders but in the end, it’s all about having the best legs.

Many riders are not familiar with this climb but one rider knows it like the back of his hand. I talked about Luis Angel Maté in the preview for stage 7. He didn’t make the break but it would surprise me not to see him try this Saturday. Maté rides Peñas Blancas a couple of times a week and he knows every meter towards the finishing line. You may not think of Maté as a climber but he’s been getting better and better uphill the recent years. In the Tour de France this summer he was the last rider to help teammate Dani Navarro finish in Top10 overall. On the final mountain stage to Annecy, Maté finished 27^th in front of strong climbers like Antón, Ten Dam and Rolland.

In case the GC riders end up gunning for the stage win, Alejandro Valverde must be the favorite. Valverde has been eager to point out that for him the World Champions is more important than the Vuelta. However, the Movistar leader is in great shape and the steady finish suits him very well. Furthermore, Valverde is very fast on the line and should the top favorites arrive together, I can’t see anybody outsprinting him. The only thing talking against Valverde is that he doesn't know the climb. Valverde’s teammates Javi Moreno, Eros Capecchi and José Herrada could also be jokers for the stage win. Especially Herrada has been extremely strong, leading the peloton whenever the road kicks up.

Peñas Blancas. 14.5 km / avg. 6.6 % - Click for lager view.

Joaquim ‘Purito’ Rodriguez is already 53 seconds after Vincenzo Nibali in the overall classification. The Spanish climber knows he has to gain time whenever he can but this isn’t really a great climb for Purito. He will ‘enjoy’ the first couple of kilometers with steep gradients and constantly change of rhythm. However, the final 8 km with steady gradients won’t make it easy for Purito to drop his rivals. Instead, teammate Dani Moreno may put in another attack and take advantage of his great shape. Riders like Ivan Basso and Samuel Sanchez are normally very good on these kind of climbs and I expect to see both of them in the front as well.

The leading rider, Vincenzo Nibali, won’t have any problems on Peñas Blancas. Paolo Tiralongo, Janez Brajkovic and Jakob Fuglsang will be supporting their team leader on the climb and especially Fuglsang looks very strong right now. Nibali knows he can take time on his rivals in the individual time trial in a couple of days and he doesn’t need to attack already. Before the Vuelta started, Nibali said he was starting out on 75 % of his maximum level. So far, the Italian shark has been showing great shape but on a tough climb like this one, it may be best to ride a little cautious. Of course, if Nibali sees a chance to attack in the final and get the 10 bonus seconds, he won’t think twice.

One of my personal outsiders for the stage win is Leopold König. His countryman Stybar won stage 7 and it won’t be a big surprise if we get another Czech win on Saturday. König arrived to the Vuelta in great shape and he put in a strong attack on stage 2. Nicolas Roche ended up winning the stage but the NetApp Endura captain showed his great climbing legs. Peñas Blancas suits Leo König very well and if the favorites start looking at each other, I’m sure König will take his chance.

Other good candidates for the stage win are Domenico Pozzovivo, who’s in outstanding shape right now, Chris Horner, who is aiming to take back the Red Jersey, Bauke Mollema, who looks very strong and Sergio Henao, who is eager to take back the time he lost on stage 2.

Eurosport is covering this year’s Vuelta a España intensively. Before and after each stage you will get inside information from the many interviews with the riders. The interviewer is Spanish journalist Laura Meseguer. She knows what’s going on inside the peloton and each day she will get you her own personal winner picks for the stage.

For Stage 8, Laura picks Alejandro Valverde to win. 

For live coverage of the stage go to steephill.tv