Tour Preview - Stage 14

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In between two sprint stages this should be a stage for a breakaway to make it. There is a hard category2 climb, Col du Portel (5,3 km - 6,3%), starting after 22 km and we should see a break taking its final shape here. From the top there is 85 km “flat” until the real final begins with two category1 climbs right after each other.

First up is Port de Lers (11,4 km - 7%) and right after the descent it’s time for a the feared Tour debutant Mur de Péguère (9,3 km - 7,9%). The last 3,3 km of Mur de Péguère have an average percentage of over 12% with parts up to 18%! There is still about 40 km to go from the top of Mur de Péguère, so it might be a good idea not to go solo too early with 20 km flat towards the finishing line.

Favorite:

As I said I think this will be a day a breakaway will make it all the way to the line. There are 20 KOM points for the polka dot jersey on the last two climbs and I know Chris Anker Sørensen is very eager to get out there and see if he can get the jersey of the shoulders of his Scandinavian rival Fredrik Kessiakoff. Also Thomas Voeckler will be interested in getting in the break and see if he can get back in the fight for the jersey plus taking another stage win. Voeckler is excellent on the descents and show good condition on the uphill sections too, so he is definitely one of the main guys to look out for.

Mur de Péguère - 9,3 km - 7,9%
Click for larger view!

On Stage 13 Luis Leon Sanchez tried to take the peloton by surprise in the last two kilometers, but in disbelieve he saw the yellow jersey Bradley Wiggins rail him back in on the very final meters. Sanchez was obvious annoyed with Wiggins in the heat of the moment but afterwards he apologized on Twitter, saying sorry to the race leader. Maybe Luis Leon Sanchez took a look in the race book and realized it might be a good idea not to make Wiggins an enemy on the road if he wants to get away in the break on Stage 14. The stage is made for Sanchez and I wouldn’t be surprised if him and Voeckler once again found each other side by side in the winning break.

Among the GC contenders it’s no secret that this is a stage where Vincenzo Nibali and Cadel Evans need to attack. Both Nibali and Evans have shown they are not afraid of attacking on the descents and if they can manage to isolate Wiggins just a little bit before that - maybe on the last steep part of Mur de Péguère - we should be in for another dramatic finish!

Winner pick: Luisle Sanchez

Joker: Vincenzo Nibali

Fränk Schleck to follow Contador and Nibali?

Can Fränk Schleck do what
Contador & Nibali have done?

With the big Danish podium hope for the Giro d’Italia, Jakob Fulgsang, having to stay home, RadioShack-Trek now needs a new captain for the Italian Grand Tour.

According to La Gazzetta dello Sport that captain will be no other than Fränk Schleck.

The rumors have been there already since last year, but with Jakob Fuglsang as the team leader, Fränk Schleck didn’t really need to be in the Giro as well. Now he does though and it will be interesting to see if Schleck can do what Contador and Nibali have done before him.

In 2008 Alberto Contador had no intentions of riding the Giro d’Italia, but thanks to a late invitation from the Giro organization, Contador went from playing beach volley on his vacation in Cadiz to win the Giro d’Italia within a few weeks.

Vincenzo Nibali working for
Ivan Basso in the Giro 2010.

I 2010 Vincenzo Nibali almost did the same. Originally Nibali wasn’t featured in the Liquigas squad for the Giro, but after Franco Pellizotti got sidelined accused of doping abuse, Nibali got called up just one week prior to the start of race. Team mate Ivan Basso won the Giro d’Italia that year, but not without outstanding help from Vincenzo Nibali who managed to take 3rd place in the overall classification. Like Alberto Contador, Nibali had no idea he would be riding the Giro until a week before the start.

Now it seems like Fränk Schleck will have the change to do the same. Jakob Fuglsang was determined to change the series of bad luck for Radioshack-Trek but instead he ended up being a part of it. Looking at his results in the Ardennes Classics, Fränk Schleck has had a very similar start of the year to what Nibali had in 2010, so don’t be surprised if the Luxembourg rider storms to glory in the Giro d’Italia – starting in one week.

UPDATE: Radioshack-Trek has now officially named Fränk Schleck as team leader for the Giro d'Italia.

Liege-Bastogne-Liege Favorites

It’s time for the last Spring Classic of the season and just like last year, there is one guy everybody talks about; Philippe Gilbert.

In 2011 it was because of his outstanding shape and three wins in a row, while it this time is because he now finally seems to be back among the favorites again.

Last year he won Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone before he took his career’s first Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory. This year Gilbert ended 12th in Brabantse Pijl, 6th in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in Fleche Wallone. As Gilbert points out you can’t really divide 3 with 2 in the same way as mentioned above -that would be a 1,5 place. Not the win, but very close. Actually a pretty solid guess for how Liege-Bastogne-Liege will be for Gilbert tomorrow.

I have no doubts that he will be among the best riders, but does he and the BMC team really have what it takes to control the race, follow the attacks and then beat everyone in the final? Gilbert is the favorite, yes – but I think a certain Italian rider could end up surprising quite a few.

Vincenzo Nibali
I have picked out Nibali as favorite a couple of times already this season (Tour of Oman, Milano-San Remo and Tirreno-Adriatico) and every time he has ended in the top3 (2nd in Oman, 3rd in MSR and 1st in Tirreno), so don’t be surprised if it continues in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Nibali attacking.

Last winter Vincenzo Nibai said he wanted to focus more on the Ardennes Classics again and after a pretty anonymous Amstel Gold Race (104th) he showed good legs in Fleche Wallone last Wednesday (8th). I’m sure Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the one of the three Ardennes races most suitable for Nibali and “The Shark” himself also sounds very optimistic about his chances.

A few days ago the Liquigas riders were out training on the course and on Cote de Saint-Nicolas, a great tactical place to attack in the final, Vincenzo Nibali opened up for all engines and rode full speed to test the legs. I won’t be surprised if he does that again tomorrow when it really counts. It would also make sense to try an attack on the descent of La Roche-aux-Faucons. Leaving the rest of the favorites looking at each other. Nibali shouldn’t have any problems staying with the favorites and if he gets away in the final he will be very difficult to catch again!

Meltdown leaders

First Alejandro Valverde and now Vincenzo Nibali. Despite being the strongest riders in the race, both riders missed out on winning the overall classification in Tour Down Under and Tour of Oman because of one stupid decision.

Alejandro Valverde and Vincenzo Nibali both like to race when it’s really hot outside, just like it was in Australia and Oman. Still both riders seemed to had a complete meltdown when the important decisions were to be made.

Valverde (green helmet) stops.
Gerrans (yellow jersey) overtakes him.

In Tour Down Under Alejandro Valverde admittedly stopped to pedal on the final meters on stage 2 to Stirling, seeing Simon Gerrans overtake him and get the bonus seconds for being third on the stage. Later on Alejandro Valverde showed to be strongest in show down between him and Gerrans, but since Gerrans had gotten the bonus seconds on stage 2, he ended up winning the race overall.

Normally Alejandro Valverde always sprints to the line, but I guess he still needs a little time getting back into the race rhythm after his ban.

Vincenzo Nibali attacking with the
sprinters teams chasing him down.

Vincenzo Nibali on the other hand had already been racing in 2012 before taking part in Tour of Oman. Still the Shark still to lack a lot of tactical sense. Nibali has always been very impulsive with his attacks, not really thinking very much ahead, and even though it seemed like he had grown in the Giro d’Italia last year, we can now conclude that he really hasn’t. Having been following the other overall favorites so far in the Tour of Oman, Nibali suddenly decided to attack on the last kilometer on stage 4. A completely flat finish, where he naturally got railed back in very quickly and hereafter couldn’t follow peloton, ending up losing 15 seconds to the other GC-riders.

The day after Vincenzo Nibali turned out to be – by far – the strongest climber in the race, winning on Green Mountain. Only problem was that Peter Velits got second on the stage, giving him the leaders jersey just 1 second ahead of Nibali.

Alejando Valverde would have won Tour Down Under, had he just continued pedaling the last few meters on stage 2 and Vincenzo Nibali would have won Tour of Oman had he not hopelessly attacked on the final – pancake flat – kilometer on stage 4.

Simon Gerrans and Peter Velits probably should send Valverde and Nibali a bottle of champagne thanking them for their help…