Liège-Bastogne-Liège: Preview & Favorites

The first two Ardennes Classics produced a surprising winner and with the new change of course in the final of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, we might as well see another outsider winning this Sunday.

Still, I think one of the favorites will win this race and to me the biggest favorite is Alejandro Valverde. He did fine in Flèche Wallonne on a finish that doesn’t suit him and he showed in Amstel Gold Race that he is in great shape right now. Liège-Bastogne-Liège is Valverde’s biggest goal this spring and with his fast finish, he will be very difficult to beat. Furthermore, Movistar have a great line up to support Valverde. Rui Costa, Quintana and Visconti all have the strength to end on the podium in this race, but this Sunday they are all riding in support of Valverde.

One of the reasons why I see Alejandro Valverde as biggest favorite is the lack of Roche-aux-Faucons. The little steep climb is closed due to roadwork, and therefore the organizers have replaced it with Côte de Colonster. Colonster is longer than Roche-aux-Faucons but it’s not nearly as steep. The 2,4 km have an average gradient of 6% and on open roads it is now a lot easier for a big group to keep the race together. The biggest threat of Côte de Colonster is probably the fight for positions on the way to the climb. Right before it starts, the peloton crossed a narrow bridge and after that a railroad crossing. If it rains, this will be very dangerous with everybody wanting to be in front when starting the climb.

As always Saint-Nicolas will be a key point in the race with its top just 5,5 km from the line. The chances of the big group starting this climb together are very high, the way I see it, and it won’t be easy for climbers like Sergio Henao to get away. I think Movistar and Katusha will have enough manpower to keep it together if needed and then set up Valverde and Moreno/Purito for a final sprint.

Purito didn’t have the legs to make a difference in Flèche Wallonne, but there is no doubt about his shape right now. He came to Amstel Gold Race in “better condition than last year” (according to himself) and Liège-Bastogne-Liège has been his big target ever since last year. He even decided to skip Vuelta Pais Vasco - a stage race tailor-made for him - in order to prepare for the Ardennes and arrive more fresh than last year. The morale is great after his teammate and loyal helper Dani Moreno won Flèche Wallonne, and even though it won’t be easy for Purito to win, I think he’ll have a great chance of making podium.

The bridge & railroad crossing just before starting
on Côte de Colonster - Click for larger view!

As always, I have a few jokers too. The first one is Bauke Mollema, the bookmakers don’t seem to count on him, but I’ve seen Mollema getting better and the better the last week. He finished 10^th in Amstel Gold Race and managed to end 9^th in Flèche Wallonne despite being boxed in on Mur de Huy. I’m sure we haven’t seen the best of Mollema in the Ardennes yet and he’s a good candidate for breakaway attempt in the final. Don’t forget Mollema is also fast on the line, should it come to a sprint. Last Wednesday, my joker Dan Martin was only centimeters away from taking the podium in Flèche Wallonne - maybe Mollema will have more luck this Sunday?

My second joker is Björn Leukemans. His spring season has been solid without being great. Must riders would probably be pleased with making Top20 in Dwaars Door Vlaanderen, Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix, but I doubt Leukemans is very happy. The cobblestone races didn’t really go as planned, but luckily for Leuki, he has another chance in the Ardennes. He showed great shape when he took 3^rd place in Brabantse Pijl behing Peter Sagan and Phillipe Gilbert, and last Sunday he sprinted to 7^th place in Amstel Gold Race. Björn Leukeman decided to skip Flèche Wallonne in order to relax and prepare for Liège-Bastogne-Liège and I wouldn’t be surprised if he improves his 9^th place from 2011 this Sunday.

Winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Podium pick: Purito Rodriguez

Jokers: Bauke Mollema & Björn Leukemans

For live race coverage go to steephill.tv

Liege-Bastogne-Liege Favorites

It’s time for the last Spring Classic of the season and just like last year, there is one guy everybody talks about; Philippe Gilbert.

In 2011 it was because of his outstanding shape and three wins in a row, while it this time is because he now finally seems to be back among the favorites again.

Last year he won Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallone before he took his career’s first Liege-Bastogne-Liege victory. This year Gilbert ended 12th in Brabantse Pijl, 6th in Amstel Gold Race and 3rd in Fleche Wallone. As Gilbert points out you can’t really divide 3 with 2 in the same way as mentioned above -that would be a 1,5 place. Not the win, but very close. Actually a pretty solid guess for how Liege-Bastogne-Liege will be for Gilbert tomorrow.

I have no doubts that he will be among the best riders, but does he and the BMC team really have what it takes to control the race, follow the attacks and then beat everyone in the final? Gilbert is the favorite, yes – but I think a certain Italian rider could end up surprising quite a few.

Vincenzo Nibali
I have picked out Nibali as favorite a couple of times already this season (Tour of Oman, Milano-San Remo and Tirreno-Adriatico) and every time he has ended in the top3 (2nd in Oman, 3rd in MSR and 1st in Tirreno), so don’t be surprised if it continues in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

Nibali attacking.

Last winter Vincenzo Nibai said he wanted to focus more on the Ardennes Classics again and after a pretty anonymous Amstel Gold Race (104th) he showed good legs in Fleche Wallone last Wednesday (8th). I’m sure Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the one of the three Ardennes races most suitable for Nibali and “The Shark” himself also sounds very optimistic about his chances.

A few days ago the Liquigas riders were out training on the course and on Cote de Saint-Nicolas, a great tactical place to attack in the final, Vincenzo Nibali opened up for all engines and rode full speed to test the legs. I won’t be surprised if he does that again tomorrow when it really counts. It would also make sense to try an attack on the descent of La Roche-aux-Faucons. Leaving the rest of the favorites looking at each other. Nibali shouldn’t have any problems staying with the favorites and if he gets away in the final he will be very difficult to catch again!