Tour de France: Stage 9 Preview & Favorites

Chris Froome, Richie Porte and the rest of Team Sky destroyed the peloton on the first Pyrenees stage. Many will say that the Tour is already over and if Team Sky keep it up like this, many will be right. Movistar and Team Saxo-Tinkoff need put on pressure early on the next mountains stages if they want to shake Team Sky. Probably already on Stage 9.

The Route

This is short stage of just 168.5 km but with five hard climbs on the menu, it will be anything but easy. The riders targeting the Polka Dot Jersey will have this stage red-circled in their road books and with a downhill finish, it’s tailor-made for a breakaway.

The two first climbs are steep and I think a solid breakaway of 10+ riders will get away already on Col de Portet d'Aspet. The intermediate sprint is located after 73 km and I wouldn’t be surprised if Peter Sagan tries to join the morning breakaway in order to extend his lead in the Green Jersey even more. Sagan took it easy on Stage 8 and in Tour de Suisse he showed to be one of the strongest riders on the steepest climb of the race. Sagan has been training hard in the mountains this year and even though I doubt he will win this stage, he’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

The Finish

With 95 km to go the, riders face the longest climb of today’s stage. Col de Peyresourde is 13.2 km and has an average gradient of 7 % with steep parts towards the top. There are still 78.5 km to the finishing line from the top of Peyresourde and even though it would be great to see, I doubt any of the favorites will take a chance. Team Sky will set the pace on the next climb too but on La Hourquette d'Ancizan the fireworks should begin. This is only the second time in the history of the Tour the riders will have to overcome La Hourquette d'Ancizan. In 2011, it was the third last climb on the stage finishing on Luz-Ardiden but this time it will be more crucial for the results.

The 9.9 km towards the top have an average gradient of 7.5 % and it’s very steep in the beginning. It won’t be easy to take Team Sky by surprise but if Quintana, Valverde or Contador attack from the start, it will definitely spice up the race. Reaching the top of La Hourquette d'Ancizan, the first part of the descent is technical. After a few kilometers the road kicks up a little and from here on the descent is very fast towards the line. It won’t be easy to stay away alone and if you arrive in a reduced group, you have to pay close attention to the finish.

There is a 90° left turn with just 150 meters to go after crossing the water and you need to be first man into this corner if you want to win the stage. 

The final three climbs of the stage. Click for larger view.

The Favorites

Looking at the profile for this stage, especially one name comes to mind; Thomas Voeckler. The French animateur tried an early attack on Stage 8 but didn’t have the legs to finish it. Voeckler has been suffering in the heat the last couple of days but if he’s ready, this is a dream stage for him. Few in the peloton are as good as Thomas Voeckler on the downhill sections and few know how to hit the right breakaway like him. Europcar are targeting the Polka Dot Jersey and this if you want to win it, you need to be in front on Stage 9.

I believe a breakaway will make it on this stage but if not, Alejandro Valverde seems to be the favorite. Valverde is in great shape and he has a strong team to protect him. He’s good on the descents and he’s very fast on the line. I think Valverde will have at least two teammates with him arriving at the finish and that should be enough to set him up for the sprint. Dani Moreno is another candidate but it all depends on how Purito is feeling. If he has another bad day on the climbs, Moreno will be locked. If not, we should see a good fight between Valverde and Moreno.

The Jokers

I already mentioned Peter Sagan and as my joker earlier but let’s pick two. Mikel Nieve and Igor Antón both did well on Stage 8 and I will continue picking a Basque rider as my joker. Both Nieve and Antón are just 3 minutes after Chris Froome in the overall classification and I doubt Team Sky will let them get away. The Izagirre brothers, Ion and Gorka, on the other hand are way down in the GC. Both are strong uphill and especially Gorka Izagirre is also very good on the descents. All teams know this is day where a breakaway can make it, and in the Pyrenees, Euskaltel will be extra motivated to show the orange colors. Gorka Izagirre did go down in the big crash on Stage 5 but he still managed to finish 21^st the following day. If he’s ready, this is a very good stage for him.

Other strong riders like Thomas De Gendt, Sylvain Chavanel, Damiano Cunego and Michael Albasini all know how to hit the right breakaway but I can’t pick all of them so I’ll stick to the riders already mentioned.

Favorites: Thomas Voeckler & Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Peter Sagan & Gorka Izagirre

For live race coverage go to Steephill.tv.

Just like during the Giro d’Italia this year, I once again have the chance to bring you daily “Fly Through” previews from Global Cycling Network. Here is Stage 9:

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 2 Preview

As predicted, stage 1 ended in a sprint in a reduced group and I think the same will happen on stage 2 - hopefully without the crashes. The final climb before the finishing line isn’t as steep as the one on stage 1 and without any accidents, we should see a bigger group fight for the stage win this time.

Simon Gerrans is in great shape right now and he won’t be easy to beat. GreenEdge will have to take responsibility defending the jersey early on but Gerrans still has a strong team to lead him out in the final. The last climb, Alto de Zaldiaran, is only 2,9 km with 4% average and have its top 9,2 km from the line. Phillipe Gilbert got hold up by the crash on stage 1 and couldn’t get back in the mix for the win. I think he will be eager to take revenge in Vitoria. Like Gerrans, Gilbert is looking to fine tune his shape for the Ardennes Classics and I think this is a good chance for the World Champion to get a win.

Astana were very strong on stage 1 and had three riders in first group of 17. They messed up a bit in the final sprint, but if they can get it right this time, I think Francesco Gavazzi has a solid chance of winning. The fast Italian is normally very good this time of year and if he can position himself well on the wheel of Gerrans or Gilbert, he has a good enough kick to win the stage.

We have seen how the descents have been used to split the peloton a couple of times this season already and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again on stage 2. Without any bonus seconds in the race, every gained second is a success and some of the riders caught behind the crash on stage 1 naturally want to take back the lost time.

Euskaltel didn’t manage to put a single rider in the front group as Samuel Sanchez, Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón all got caught behind the crash, and I expect them to be riding very aggressively on this stage. Samuel Sanchez is one of the best riders on the descents and the Izagirre brothers aren’t bad either. Without a single win this season, Euskaltel are forced to attack - especially on home soil - and I’m sure they will do whatever they can to join the winning club of 2013. Therefore, I’ll give Gorka Izagirre another chance to prove why he should be a joker for the stage win.

Another good joker is Lampre’s Daniele Pietropolli. Like team leader Damiano Cunego, Pietropolli got caught behind the crash on stage 1 and if he manages to stay out of trouble, I think he could end up surprising a few with his fast finish.

Favorites: Phillippe Gilbert / Simon Gerrans

Jokers: Gorka Izagirre / Daniele Pietropolli

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Vuelta Pais Vasco - Stage 1 Preview

There aren’t any tailored stages for the sprinters in this year’s Vuelta Pais Vasco but stage 1 and 2 should still end in a sprint. A sprint in a reduced group that is. We have six categorized climbs on the menu and the last one, Alto de Aiastia (4,8 km / 5,42%), has its top just 7 km from the line.

It’s a good finish for riders with strong downhill skills like Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Cunego, but I think GreenEdge, BMC and Astana will try to keep it together. Especially GreenEdge look strong with Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey for the stage, while Astana have Francesco Gavazzi and Enrico Gasparotto. For BMC, Phillipe Gilbert will be the man for sprint and this is a good opportunity for the World Champion to show he’s ready for the upcoming Ardennes Classics later this month.

With a profile like this one, a break will have a solid chance of making it. Especially if strong riders get away on the last climb and if so, look to the Basque home favorites. Euskaltel are still without a win this season and naturally, they are very eager to perform on home soil. Samuel Sanchez may not be 100% yet - since he's targeting the Giro this year and not this race - but riders like Gorka and Ion Izagirre and Igor Antón will be ready to fight stage wins. Personally, I expect a lot from Igor Antón, but on this stage I think the Izagirre brothers will shine. Gorka is very strong on the descents, he showed that in the Tour last year, and fast on the line too. He ended 14^th in GP Miguel Indurain on Saturday and he is my outsider for the stage win in Elgoibar Monday afternoon.

Winner pick: Phillipe Gilbert

Joker: Gorka Izagirre

For live coverage go to steephill.tv

Paris-Nice: Favorites & Jokers

Right after the three Grand Tours we find Paris-Nice when we talk about the toughest races of the year. It’s still very early and eight days of cold weather, heavy wind and difficult climbs make it a hard race to win. 

Last year Bradley Wiggins came as the big favorite and won. This year it’s very open! Looking at the start list, I see at least four riders with an equal chance of winning. Let’s take a look at them.

Tejay van Garderen has already shown good shape in San Luis and despite the last time trial being on Col d’Eze and not a flat one, I would be very surprised not to see the young American on the final podium. BMC have a strong team of riders to protect TJ on the flat - and windy - stages and according to TJ himself he’s climbing very well these days. It will be difficult for TJ to stay with the pure climbers like Robert Gesink and Nairo Quintana on the final climb on stage 5, but he shouldn’t lose more than he can take back in the time trial. Of course he can’t afford to lose a minute or more, but if he can minimize his time lose to 30-45 seconds I think he’ll end up winning the race.

For Robert Gesink it’s the complete opposite scenario. He needs to gain as much time as possible on the climb and then hope its’ enough to keep strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra behind him in the GC. Blanco have sent a strong team to support Gesink and especially Kelderman and Kruijswijk will be vital on stage 5. Alberto Contador managed to distance number two (Fränk Schleck) with almost a minute on La Montagne de Lure  in 2009 and Gesink probably needs to do the same if he wants to win overall. Together with Nario Quintana he’s my favorite for the stage win that day, but will it be enough?

While TJ needs to minimize the gap on the climb and Gesink needs to minimize the gap on the time trial, I think Andrew Talansky could be the full package. Talansky is strong on the climbs and the uphill time trial suits him perfectly. He has had a great winter season and he always gets better when the rest of the field are getting tired. Talansky was less than a second from beating Bradley Wiggins in the time trial in Tour de Romandie last year and he distanced Robert Gesink on most of the tough climbs in the Vuelta. If Talansky comes to the last three stages without any bad luck or time losses, he will be very difficult to beat, I reckon.

If anybody can beat him though, it’s Lieuwe Westra. The Vancasoleil captain got a big breakthrough in Paris-Nice last year where he won on Mende and finished second on the Col d’Eze time trial (just two seconds behind Wiggins) and according to Westra he’s actually feeling stronger this year. The big question here is if Westra can keep up with the best on La Montagne de Lure. On a good day, he shouldn’t lose more time than he can get back in the time trial, but if he doesn’t have one of his best days, I’m afraid he can only fight for the lower spots on the podium.

The last couple of years I’ve been praising Rein Taaramae but being sick just a few weeks before the race, I doubt he will do much damage. That doesn’t mean Cofidis won’t be in the front though. Buying in new strong riders to help Alberto Contador, Team Saxo-Tinkoff couldn’t effort to keep Daniel Navarro at his current salary, so instead he went to try his luck as team leader of Cofidis. So far it’s been one of the best decisions in Navarro’s career as he has started out the season in a great way.  He stayed with the best on the climbs in Ruta del Sol where he finished 10^th overall and just a few days later he won Vuelta a Murcia. Navarro is not good in the wind, but if he can manage to position himself up front in the flat stages and come to mountain stage without a significant time loss I think he can do some real damage. The climbs in this race suits him very well and he really likes Col d’Eze too. Last year he surprise quite a few - myself included - when he finished 11^th on the that time trial and being a lot stronger this year and having to prove himself as team leader, I think Navarro is set for minimum top5 overall.

Before ending this preview, I would like to point out Nairo Quintana again. I know I already said it many times last year, but this guy is a future Grand Tour winner. He makes the toughest climbs look like nothing and I won’t hesitate to pick him to win stage 5. If Quintana really has a great day he can distance the rest of the field with about a minute on this stage and if he can attack Col d’Eze the same way he actually has a chance of winning this race overall. The way I see it, Nairo Quintana can either win Paris-Nice of end around top5-10. With strong time trialists like TJ, Talansky and Westra, winning might be too much to ask for, but I’m sure Quintana will show you why he needs to be mention among the race favorites.

As always, I have a few jokers too. First up is Ion Izagirre. The Basque fighter showed in the Giro last year that is to be taking seriously and he has started out this season in a very strong way. He finished 4^th overall in Tour Down Under and put it some strong attacks in Ruta del Sol where he ended 15^th overall. He can count on support from his brother Gorka and pure climber Mikel Nieve who also did well in Ruta del Sol. Izagirre is good in the short prologs and the climbs in Paris-Nice suit him just fine. He won’t win this race, but I’m sure you will notice him.

My second joker is Maxime Monfort. He was very close to winning Tour Med overall, but couldn’t keep up with Thomas Löfkvist on the steep climb. Monfort was also hit by the stomach flu that kept many riders from doing their best but I’m sure he will be ready for Paris-Nice. Last year he finished 7^th overall and despite a significant stronger field this year, I still think he will finishi in close to Top10. The big climb isn’t too steep for Monfort and the final time trial on Col d’Eze shouldn’t be too much for him either. Monfort is good against the clock and he’s never too far off on the climbs.

Like I wrote in the beginning, the field for Paris-Nice 2013 is very strong and the race very open! I think the winner will be one of the first four mentioned, but there is a large group of riders ready to challenge them. Here I’ll try to give my view on the final classification:

1. Tejay van Garderen

2. Andrew Talansky

3. Robert Gesink

4. Lieuwe Westra

5. Daniel Navarro

6. Nairo Quintana

7. Richie Porte

8. Jakob Fuglsang

9. Denis Menchov

10. Ion Izagirre

11. Michele Scarponi

12. Jean-Christophe Peraud

13. Maxime Monfort

14. Peter Velits

15. Rui Costa

16. Bart de Clercq

17. Gorka Izagirre

18. Mikel Nieve

19. Simon Spilak

20. Sylvain Chavanel